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NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biomass Burning and Fossil Fuel Apportionment via Greenhouse Gas Enhancement Ratios Over Southeast Asia as Measured During ASIA-AQ

As Southeast Asian economies continue to grow, so will their contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driven primarily by increases in fossil fuel combustion. Left unchecked, these emissions will negatively impact air quality and climate, therefore it is imperative that emission sources are properly identified and accounted for in emission inventories. Enhancement ratios of GHGs have been used to characterize regional emissions as either dominated by fossil fuel combustion or biomass burning. In particular, airborne assessment of short-term continuous emission ratios has proven useful to quantify relative contributions of fossil fuel and biomass burning to GHG emissions. The 2024 Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign, flying over the Philippines, Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, sampled a variety of emissions including significant biomass burning, local urban pollution, and transport events. This work will explore the impact of GHG emissions on the distinctive pollution of the sampled locations. As airborne GHG measurements over Southeast Asia are scarce if not nonexistent, this work provides a crucial link between established ground-based measurements and state-of-the-art satellite observations such as those from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS). Analysis of GHG enhancement ratios in East Asia will lead to more accurate emission inventories which can be used to implement more effective GHG control measures leading to improved air quality and minimizing the effect on climate.

ASIA-AQ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hestia SW-IFL Onroad Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) product: Road segment-level annual FFCO2 emissions across Arizona (2017-2022), version 1.1

The SW-IFL onroad fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions data product represents CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles (e.g., passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) traveling on designated roadways. The emissions are represented geographically on each road segment within the state of Arizona spanning the 2017 to 2022 time period. This data product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions data are provided in CSV (input data, ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and GeoPackage form (output polyline objects - about 786,000 road segments, XXXX_AZ_v1.1.gpkg) designated by road class (interstates, arterials, collectors, local). The metadata file (Metadata_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) provides details about attributes and data formats. The GeoPackage emissions data are provided separately for local roads and nonlocal roads (interstates, arterials, collectors). The method file (Methods_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) describes the data processing flow and data sources. Update on 2024-04-17: Updates were made to both the input emission data file (.csv) and output segment-level emission file (.gpkg). There was an update in county-level emission input data (ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-04-29: Update was made to one output segment-level emission file (Nonlocal_AZ_v1.0.gpkg). There was an error in the AADT values and the data were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-10-22: Temporal coverage was extended to include 2022. VMT values were recalculated using new AADT data and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect these updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Single-column cryogenic air separation: Enabling efficient oxygen production with rapid startup and low capital costs—application to low-carbon fossil-fuel plants

The rapid integration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid is driving the need for more flexible, low-carbon fossil-fuel plants with lower capital costs. This then drives the need to improve the cryogenic air separation unit (ASU). To address this changing landscape, we explore a Praxair single-column ASU (PSC-ASU) design with the goal of reducing costs and improving flexibility, compared to a conventional double-column ASU. The PSC-ASU incorporates partial air condensation and air pre-separation in the bottom reboiler with a phase separator as well as N 2 -enriched vapor condensation in the upper reboiler to decrease energy consumption, as compared to Linde’s single-column ASU. All three of the above-mentioned ASU designs are simulated in Aspen Plus and analyzed. An economic analysis is applied to evaluate the relative cost savings of the PSC-ASU compared to the double-column ASU. Results suggest that the specific energy consumption of the PSC-ASU is significantly lower than that of Linde’s single-column ASU due to a drastically improved oxygen recovery rate. Although this improved oxygen recovery rate is still lower than that of the double-column ASU, the required pressure ratio of the main air compressor is 21% lower than that of the double-column ASU. As a result, the specific energy consumption of the PSC-ASU is only 1.9% greater than that of the double-column ASU for producing 95.1 mol% O 2 . However, the PSC-ASU reduces the hourly capital cost by 19% due to the elimination of a high-pressure column. This would effectively decrease the total hourly cost of the ASU, and thus the total hourly cost of low-carbon, fossil-fuel power plants that require oxygen.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: 1751-2017

This data product is a time series of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture. Estimates of CO2 emissions are included for the globe and by nation back to 1751, and include emissions from solid fuel consumption, liquid fuel consumption, gas fuel consumption, cement production, and gas flaring. Per capita CO2 emissions and emissions from international trade (bunker fuels) are included as well; bunker fuels are not included in country totals, but are assigned to the country in which loading took place. Estimates are generated using the United Nations Energy Statistics database and the United States Geologic Survey’s cement statistics. Datasets produced from this group at Appalachian State University are located here, and are also located at https://energy.appstate.edu/research/work-areas/cdiac-appstate. Historic CDIAC data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory are located here: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2017. This dataset is the foundational dataset for the annual global carbon budget and other carbon cycle analyses that need relevant fossil fuel CO2 data. Within this data package are spreadsheets (.csv) of global and national estimates of CO2 emissions as well as text files of the ranking of each country’s total CO2 emissions and per capita for that year.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This revised report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), pulverized coal (PC), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. The cost and performance of fossil fuel-based generation technologies represented in this report (and the series at large) are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. In addition to informing technology comparisons, the reference plant configurations found in this report provide perspective for regulators and policy makers. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as an Innovative Energy Storage Technology for Fossil-Integrated Systems

Pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) provides around 95% of all utility-scale energy storage in the U.S. and globally. Additional deployment of PSH is hampered by excessively long permitting and commissioning requirements and is constrained to locations for which natural topography provides suitable elevation relief between the upper and lower reservoirs (the ΔH challenge). The purpose of this research was to evaluate Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as a means to solve the ΔH challenge and initiate the commercialization pathway for a promising new energy storage technology. Four primary tasks were conducted: Screening and ranking of candidate sites for project development; multiphase reservoir modeling to evaluate mine performance; techno-economic analysis and preliminary designs for PSH-AUM systems integrated with fossil-fuel power units; and stakeholder engagement to identify pathways to commercialization of this new technology. Key results were achieved in each of the four primary tasks. Candidate site screening determined that nearly 10,000 underground mines were spatially locatable, of which more than 100 sites appear suitable for integration with existing fossil power plants that are expected to remain in longer-term operation. Mine reservoir models were developed using PNNL’s STOMP simulator and parameterized using candidate site data to evaluate interactions with the surrounding groundwater system and confirm the potential for some mines to accommodate inflows and outflows on the order of 100 m3/s over 8-hour durations (1.6 GWh system) without excessive aqueous pressures. Techno-economic analysis resulted in a project cost optimization scheme to identify key sensitivities and the development of preliminary designs that can minimize overall costs of deployment. Finally, stakeholder engagement with industry, state government, and local economic development leaders confirmed the viability of PSH-AUM as a promising new technology. Our Phase I project results suggest that PSH-AUM technology has a domestic market potential on the order of $100+ Billion with ample space for technology development to commercialization within the next decade.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC), circulating fluidized bed (CFB), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. This is Volume 3 of a five-volume series, which comprise the following reports: Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 2: Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas and Ammonia (Various Coal Ranks); Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 4: Bituminous Coal to Liquid Fuels; and Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation. The cost and performance of fossil fuel-based generation technologies represented in this report (and the series at large) are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. In addition to informing technology comparisons, the reference plant configurations found in this report provide perspective for regulators and policy makers. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation

To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Characterization to Inform Sustainable Recovery of Critical Minerals from Fossil Energy Waste Feedstocks

Rare earth elements (REE) and other critical minerals (CM, e.g., Co, Li) have important uses in green energy and modern technologies, yet are vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. One potential domestic source of CM is fossil energy wastes, such as acid mine drainage (AMD) and treatment solids (AMD solids), coal combustion ash, and Oil and Gas (O&G) drilling wastes (drill cuttings and produced waters). CM recovery from these waste feedstocks is promising due to their abundances and fast availability as waste products. On the other hand, the CM occurrence in these wastes is in small quantities compared to traditional ore bodies. Thus, novel and strategic separation and extraction processes are under exploration. Researchers at DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) are collecting and analyzing CM data for aforementioned fossil energy wastes, and utilizing advanced geochemical characterization (e.g., synchrotron microprobe and sequential extraction) to understand the CM speciation and binding environments in these materials to better inform sustainable and effective recovery. Successful examples discussed in this talk include: (1) the discovery of easily mobile REE phases in Ca-rich coal combustion ash and developing a patented REE recovery process from Ca-rich Powder River Basin coal ash; (2) the successful identification of REE/Co/Ni/Zn hosting phases in acid mine drainage treatment solids (AMD solids) with diverse chemical composition (Al, Mn, or Fe-rich) informing the sequential recovery of different REE/CMs from AMD solids; (3) the recovery potential of Li and other CMs in O&G produced waters and drill cuttings. The innovations driven by characterization have the potential to offset the cost of waste management and wastewater treatments while reducing the cost and environmental footprint of CM extraction.

characterization and extraction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microwave-assisted dehydrogenation of fossil fuels using iron-based alumina nanocomposites

Hydrogen is mainly produced via steam reforming of methane and gasification of coal, with enormous CO 2 emissions in both cases. Microwave-assisted thermocatalytic decomposition (pyrolysis) is of interest as a method for hydrogen production from fossil fuels with no CO 2 emissions. For successful implementation of this technology, it is necessary to develop decomposition catalysts that are also good microwave absorbers and can be produced from inexpensive materials via a robust synthetic route. Recently, iron-based alumina nanocomposites, fabricated by solution combustion synthesis (SCS), have shown promising microwave-absorbing and catalytic properties in the pyrolysis of plastics. The reported project explored the feasibilities of improving such catalysts and using them for the microwave-assisted pyrolysis of liquid fossil fuels, viz., diesel fuel, gasoline, and crude oil. The research focused on how SCS parameters affect the material properties and pyrolysis performance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent, technical, and economic approach. This is Volume 1 of the baseline series: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity. The cost and performance of fossil fuel‐based generation technologies represented in this report are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies. The main report consists of fifteen power plant configurations, six PC cases (with and without carbon capture) nine NGCC cases (with and without carbon capture) and few additional cases of higher capture rate, for both PC and NGCC plants in the appendix. In addition to the report, an interactive tool was developed that allows users to manipulate six key study parameters simultaneously for each case and visualize the impact on three metrics: 1) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), 2) cost of CO 2 capture (CCC), and 3) cost of CO 2 avoided (CCA). Following is the link to the interactive tool: https://netl.doe.gov/NETLVol1BaselineTool

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Shell structure and distribution of Cloudina, a potential index fossil for the terminal Proterozoic

Cloudina-bearing biosparites and biomicrites in the lower part of the Nama Group, Namibia, contain a wide morphological diversity of shell fragments that can all be attributed to the two named species C. hartmannae and C. riemkeae. The curved to sinuous tubular shells of Cloudina were multi-layered. Each shell layer was 8 to 50 micrometers thick and in the form of a slightly flaring tube with one end open and the other closed. Growth appears to have been periodic with successive shell layers forming within older layers. Each added layer was slightly elevated from the previous layer at the proximal end and was asymmetrically placed within the older layer so that only a portion of the new shell layer was fused to the previous layer. This type of growth left a relatively large unminerialized area between the shell layers which was often partially or fully occluded by early marine cements. The thin shell layers exhibit both plastic and brittle deformation and were likely formed of a rigid CaCO3-impregnated organic-rich material. Often the shell layers are preferentially dolomitized suggesting an original mineralogy of high-magnesian calcite. Both species in the Nama Group formed thickets, or perhaps bioherms, and this sedentary and gregarious habit suggests that Cloudina was probably a filter-feeding metazoan of at least a cnidarian grade of organization. The unusual shell structure of Cloudina gives rise to a characteristic suite of taphonomic and diagenetic features that can be used to identify Cloudina-bearing deposits within the Nama Group and in other terminal Proterozoic deposits around the world. Species of Cloudina occur in limestones from Brazil, Spain, China, and Oman in sequences consistent with a latest Proterozoic age assignment. In addition, supposed lower Cambrian, pre-trilobitic, shelly fossils from northwest Mexico and the White-Inyo Mountains in California and Nevada, including Sinotubulites, Nevadatubulus, and Wyattia, are all either closely related to or con-generic with Cloudina. Hence, it is probable that these outcrops are latest Proterozoic in age, and that Cloudina or Cloudina-like organisms were widely distributed at that time. It is possible, moreover, to suggest that metazoan biomineralization occurred on a global scale by the latest Proterozoic, at the same time that evidence for complex multicellularity and locomotion in animals appears in siliciclastic "Ediacaran" rocks in the form of body and trace fossils.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS1993

Insect diversity in the fossil record

Insects possess a surprisingly extensive fossil record. Compilation of the geochronologic ranges of insect families demonstrates that their diversity exceeds that of preserved vertebrate tetrapods through 91 percent of their evolutionary history. The great diversity of insects was achieved not by high origination rates but rather by low extinction rates comparable to the low rates of slowly evolving marine invertebrate groups. The great radiation of modern insects began 245 million years ago and was not accelerated by the expansion of angiosperms during the Cretaceous period. The basic trophic machinery of insects was in place nearly 100 million years before angiosperms appeared in the fossil record.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2020

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cradle-to-Gate greenhouse gas emissions of the production of ethylene from U.S. Corn ethanol and comparison to fossil-derived ethylene production

Conventional ethylene production heavily depends on fossil-derived feedstocks via steam cracking, a very energy- and emission-intensive process. Researchers have been exploring alternatives to reduce CO 2 emissions including producing ethylene from biobased feedstocks. This paper evaluates the cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of bioethylene produced from U.S. corn ethanol. The analysis includes different pathways for the dehydration of corn ethanol to ethylene and co-processing routes via fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) processes. For the FCC co-processing route carbon-14 analysis is used to determine bioethanol yields. A 127% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of bioethylene is estimated compared to fossil-derived ethylene for the base case. Additional case studies are also discussed to understand the reduction of GHG emissions due to sustainable corn farming and renewable power use, biogenic carbon capture, and fuel switch with biofuels at the ethanol plant, and its impact on bioethylene GHG emissions.

carbon footprint↗