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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive binder jet additive manufacturing enabled by clean burn-off binder design

Binder jet additive manufacturing (BJAM) presents an avenue for advanced manufacturing of various high-value materials due to high deposition rates, scalability, and geometric flexibility. However, conventional organic binders in BJAM introduce residual carbon upon pyrolysis, often leading to imprecise alloy composition in the final sintered part. The undesirable residual carbon from binder burn-off limits the application of BJAM for high-performance alloys due to their high sensitivity to carbon addition. In this study, we have designed poly(vinylpyrrolidone-co-vinyl acetate) (PVP-VAc) as a clean burn-off binder for BJAM, where excess oxygen groups in VAc enable cleaner burn-off and reduce residual carbon retention. Compared to a widely used commercial binder, the optimized PVP-VAc binder reduced residual carbon retention by over 90% in H13 tool steel. The significant reduction in residual carbon enables predictable printing and subsequent sintering of complex H13 tool steel geometries, an alloy known to have substantial challenges around distortion due to the sintering window shifting from carbon addition. The design of a clean burnout binder provides a major path forward for BJAM by enabling new AM designs and applications for composition-sensitive high-performance alloys, such as nickel-based superalloys, titanium alloys, and high alloyed steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multislice forward modeling of coherent surface scattering imaging on surface and interfacial structures

To study nanostructures on substrates, surface-sensitive reflection-geometry scattering techniques such as grazing incident small angle X-ray scattering are commonly used to yield an averaged statistical structural information of the surface sample. Grazing incidence geometry can probe the absolute three-dimensional structural morphology of the sample if a highly coherent beam is used. Coherent surface scattering imaging (CSSI) is a powerful yet non-invasive technique similar to coherent X-ray diffractive imaging (CDI) but performed at small angles and grazing-incidence reflection geometry. A challenge with CSSI is that conventional CDI reconstruction techniques cannot be directly applied to CSSI because the Fourier-transform-based forward models cannot reproduce the dynamical scattering phenomenon near the critical angle of total external reflection of the substrate-supported samples. To overcome this challenge, we have developed a multislice forward model which can successfully simulate the dynamical or multi-beam scattering generated from surface structures and the underlying substrate. The forward model is also demonstrated to be able to reconstruct an elongated 3D pattern from a single shot scattering image in the CSSI geometry through fast-performing CUDA-assisted PyTorch optimization with automatic differentiation.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Noise suppression for MHD characterization with electron cyclotron emission imaging 1D technique

Significant noise suppression for magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) mode characterization in the spatial and spectral domain is achieved by processing two-dimensional (2D) electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) data with a one-dimensional (1D) ECEI technique using a short time window ($1\;{\text{ms}}$). The technique is applied to detect toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs) in the temporal spectrum and fit their radial envelope using the data from the DIII-D tokamak W-band 2D ECEI system. Using the data length (time window) of only 1 ${\text{ms}}$, the 1D ECEI can clearly detect the TAEs (~100 ${\text{kHz}}$) on the spectrum, while similar spectrum quality requires ~10 ${\text{ms}}$ data length with the cross power spectrum between two midplane ECEI channels. The 1D ECEI technique also effectively avoids biased fitting when resolving the fine structure of the TAE's radial envelope. The radially spatial resolution of 1D ECEI is constrained by the finite ECE radiation volume of the ECEI receiver. Here, with forward radiation modeling, we find the DIII-D ECEI system can sensitively measure the even parity MHD activities, for which the mode width is >15 mm, and tearing modes (odd parity MHD activities), for which the island full width is >30 mm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package includes several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) capabilities. For generating sensitivities with CE data, three methods are available in SCALE 6.3.0: (1) the iterated fission probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) IFP with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance Characterization (CLUTCH) with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Currently, it is difficult to generate accurate sensitivities with large reflectors when using the CLUTCH method, specifically with fissionable and hydrogenous materials. To address this issue, the work presented herein examines a methodology to calculate the adjoint flux externally with the 3D deterministic SN transport code DENOVO in SCALE; the result is then read directly into the CLUTCH-TSUNAMI sequence. This hybridization method replaces the Monte Carlo F*(r) calculation in CLUTCH while still utilizing the forward calculation. The critical benchmark HEU-MET-FAST-028-001 is used to generate sensitivities based on the inability of CLUTCH to generate accurate sensitivities. Results from the hybrid method appear to generate sensitivity values that are in excellent agreement with direct perturbations. Although further testing is needed, the method provides promising results for the development and utility of a hybrid method for use in TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mind the gap – Part 1: Accurately locating warm marine boundary layer clouds and precipitation using spaceborne radars

Abstract. Ground-based radar observations show that, over the eastern North Atlantic, 50 % of warm marine boundary layer (WMBL) hydrometeors occur below 1.2 km and have reflectivities of <-17 dBZ, thus making their detection from space susceptible to the extent of surface clutter and radar sensitivity. Surface clutter limits the ability of the CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR) to observe the true cloud base in ~52 % of the cloudy columns it detects and true virga base in ~80 %, meaning the CloudSat CPR often provides an incomplete view of even the clouds it does detect. Using forward simulations, we determine that a 250 m resolution radar would most accurately capture the boundaries of WMBL clouds and precipitation; that being said, because of sensitivity limitations, such a radar would suffer from cloud cover biases similar to those of the CloudSat CPR. Observations and forward simulations indicate that the CloudSat CPR fails to detect 29 %–43 % of the cloudy columns detected by ground-based sensors. Out of all configurations tested, the 7 dB more sensitive EarthCARE CPR performs best (only missing 9.0 % of cloudy columns) indicating that improving radar sensitivity is more important than decreasing the vertical extent of surface clutter for measuring cloud cover. However, because 50 % of WMBL systems are thinner than 400 m, they tend to be artificially stretched by long sensitive radar pulses, hence the EarthCARE CPR overestimation of cloud top height and hydrometeor fraction. Thus, it is recommended that the next generation of space-borne radars targeting WMBL science should operate interlaced pulse modes including both a highly sensitive long-pulse mode and a less sensitive but clutter-limiting short-pulse mode.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differentiating multi-MeV, multi-ion spectra with CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors

The development of high intensity petawatt lasers has created new possibilities for ion acceleration and nuclear fusion using solid targets. In such laser-matter interaction, multiple ion species are accelerated with broad spectra up to hundreds of MeV. To measure ion yields and for species identification, CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors are frequently used. However, these detectors are limited in their applicability for multi-ion spectra differentiation as standard image recognition algorithms can lead to a misinterpretation of data, there is no unique relation between track diameter and particle energy, and there are overlapping pit diameter relationships for multiple particle species. In this report, we address these issues by first developing an algorithm to overcome user bias during image processing. Second, we use calibration of the detector response for protons, carbon and helium ions (alpha particles) from 0.1 to above 10 MeV and measurements of statistical energy loss fluctuations in a forward-fitting procedure utilizing multiple, differently filtered CR-39, altogether enabling high-sensitivity, multi-species particle spectroscopy. To validate this capability, we show that inferred CR-39 spectra match Thomson parabola ion spectrometer data from the same experiment. Filtered CR-39 spectrometers were used to detect, within a background of ~ 2 × 10 11 sr -1 J -1 protons and carbons, (1.3 ± 0.7) × 10 8 sr -1 J -1 alpha particles from laser-driven proton-boron fusion reactions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectral induced polarization monitoring of induced calcite precipitation in subsurface sediments

Co-precipitation of contaminants within the crystalline structure of calcite is a promising natural attenuation or remedial technology being considered at contaminated sites. We explore the sensitivity of the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method to induced calcite precipitation in natural sediments as a path forward to non-invasively monitor these sites. We performed time-lapse column experiments using phased (I-IV) injections over 40 days on natural sediments from the Hanford Site (Washington State, USA). In the phased injections, abiotic calcite precipitation was induced and confirmed to have occurred. Previous work in glass beads and homogeneous sand was limited to high frequency detection of calcite, however in this work we observed the development of two polarization mechanisms, one at high frequency (>100 Hz) and one at low frequency (< 100 Hz). Based on the characteristic frequencies from the SIP high and low frequency regimes, characteristic length scales (L) were computed where the adsorption mode of Na+ versus Ca2+ was compared by using diffusion coefficients corresponding to Na+ versus an arithmetically averaged value for Na+ and Ca2+. Using the diffusion coefficient of Na+, the high frequency L was found to correlate well with the size of the calcite crystals. The low frequency L correlated well with the individual natural sediment grain sizes within the columns. During late experimental times (day 36 and 40), the characteristic low frequency in two of the experimental columns shifted to lower frequencies (<0.001 Hz) which may signify SIP sensitivity of the formed calcite with the sediment grains. In field applications, the development of a low frequency polarization length scale to monitor calcite precipitation is promising for field monitoring applications, however further laboratory work needs to be performed to examine the SIP sensitivity of calcite formation in the presence of to natural sediments

calcium carbonate, calcite, precipitation, spectra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Assessment of Photovoltaic Panels Using Impedance Spectroscopy

The goal of this project was to develop a technique for measuring internal characteristics of a PV module using light modulation under a fixed voltage bias while measuring the resulting alternating current. This technique, light-intensity modulated impedance spectroscopy (LIMIS), has the promise of detecting early signs of panel aging and degradation that could be used for example by solar farm operators to have early warnings to repair or replace panels to maintain reliability of the overall PV array. LIMIS would be complementary with the previously developed electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which uses an alternating voltage applied electrically to a solar cell with a similar alternating current measurement. EIS has mostly been developed for individual PV cells rather than whole modules. The project was intended to assess what different information could be revealed by LIMIS, which may in some cases be more scalable to larger modules and potentially more practical to apply in field measurements without needing to electrically disconnect PV modules. We began with small 10 W PV modules and built a testbed capable of oscillating the light intensity with frequencies up to 50 kHz. In parallel, we built a large testbed for testing large 250 W PV modules. Meanwhile, we developed procedures for established measurement techniques: current–voltage (I–V), EIS, and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, where panels are subjected to forward bias while their infrared emission is recorded using a camera modified to be sensitive to IR wavelengths. In addition, we developed protocols for accelerated aging of PV modules in two ways. Thermal cycling from –40°C to +90°C simulates the diurnal temperature cycles on a rooftop. Mechanical stress by dropping a 227 g ball from a height of 1 m simulates damage such as that due to hail impacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast dynamic aperture optimization with forward-reversal integration

A fast dynamic aperture (DA) optimization method for storage rings has been developed through the use of reversal integration. Even if dynamical systems have an exact reversal symmetry, a numerical forward integration differs from its reversal. For a chaotic trajectory, cumulative round-off errors are scaled, which results in an exponential growth on the difference. The exponential effect is a generic chaos indicator which represents the sensitivity of the chaotic motion to its initial condition. The chaos indicator of the charged particle motion can be obtained by comparing the forward integrations of particle trajectories with corresponding reversals, a.k.a. “backward integrations.” The indicator is observable even through short-term particle tracking simulations. Therefore, adopting it as an objective function could speed up optimization. Finally, the DA of the National Synchrotron Light Source II storage ring, and another test diffraction-limited light source ring, were optimized using this method for the purpose of demonstration.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Dew Point Meter: Application to the Measurement of the Sulfuric Acid Dew Point for Combustion Flue Gas

Accurate knowledge of acid dew point is essential for industrial and applied combustion applications. Sulfur in the fuel or raw materials is converted to sulfur dioxide (SO2) during combustion, and a portion of the SO2 is oxidized to sulfur trioxide (SO3). The SO3 will react to form H2SO4 vapor when in the presence of water vapor. Even with just trace levels of H2SO4 vapor in the gas phase (1-10 ppm), the dew point can reach 100°C and higher. To avoid acid condensation and the resulting corrosion on heat recovery equipment, plant engineers must ensure that surface temperatures are above the acid dew point, but this decreases the efficiency of thermal energy recovery. Thus, there is a trade-off between minimizing equipment corrosion and maximizing thermal energy recovery, and the acid dew point is a key parameter for this optimization. Commercially available acid dew point meters use electric conductivity sensors. These sensors are known to greatly underestimate the dew point due to their low sensitivity. In addition, no validation testing has been reported for these units and they are often expensive. In this work, we analyze the theory of the sulfuric acid condensation and develop a novel dew point meter based on this analysis. The meter consists of a novel optical instrument that is designed to monitor the slightest appearance of condensation on a hydrophobic window surface as the surface temperature of the window is slowly decreased. In this way, an accurate measurement of the dew point is obtained under a wide range of concentrations. The basis of the instrument is that a collimated beam from a diode laser will generate forward scattered light when the beam encounters surface condensate, and a sophisticated array detector is used to sensitively monitor the onset of light scattering. The measurement procedures are established to rapidly find the acid dew point, while minimizing error. Further, to calibrate the dew point meter we developed a calibration system based on a liquid bubbler that can generate a stable gas flow with a known sulfuric acid dew point. Test results show that the dew point meter can accurately measure acid dew point over a wide range. For H2SO4 vapor concentrations as low as 6 ppm the acid dew point is measured with an error of only ~1°C. To demonstrate the versatility of this instrument, the dew point meter was adapted for use with a high-pressure flow cell to allow for measurements of the dew point of flue gas from pressurized oxy-fuel combustion in a 100 kWth pressurized reactor.

Cheng, Mao↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yesterday’s extremes, today’s new normal: flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Unplanned urban growth has left many cities increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, particularly in regions with inadequate drainage infrastructures and development encroaching on natural floodplains. Here, in this perspective paper, we examine the September 2024 floods that struck Central Nepal, triggered by a persistent low-pressure system and enhanced by converging moisture flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal which led to widespread catastrophic damage. In the Kathmandu Valley, floodwaters expanded to more than 2.5 times the bankfull water extent, causing significant damage to housing, transportation network, and critical infrastructure, displacing thousands of residents, and severely disrupting urban services. This event highlights the urgent need for improved flood management strategies that integrate both structural and non-structural measures into the infrastructure development. While early warning systems provided critical lead time, challenges remain in reducing forecasting uncertainties and improving communication across government agencies and with local communities. A forward-looking approach is essential, including probabilistic flood forecasting systems, sustainable floodplain management, risk-sensitive land use planning, climate- and disaster- resilient infrastructure development, and the integration of nature-based solutions like urban green and blue spaces to mitigate flood impacts. By involving local communities in planning and preparedness efforts, particularly through citizen science initiatives, and engagement with underserved and disadvantaged communities, Nepal can better adapt to the growing risks posed by extreme rainfall and urban flooding and enhance long-term disaster resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas like Kathmandu Valley.

Kathmandu Valley↗
DOE OSTI2026

First Measurement of Sub-GeV nu_mu Charged-Current Coherent Pion Production on Argon in MicroBooNE

Coherent pion production, characterized by a neutrino interacting with an entire nucleus without breaking it apart, results in a forward-going muon, pion, and a low-momentum recoil nucleus. This process provides a sensitive probe of neutrino-nucleus interactions and offers a potential standard candle for neutrino-flux normalization in neutrino-oscillation experiments. We present the first measurement of the flux-averaged charged-current coherent pion production cross section on argon nucleus using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber. The analysis employs particle identification together with a data-driven background parameterization to isolate the coherent signal. This measurement uses the full MicroBooNE dataset collected from the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, corresponding to an exposure of 1.26E10^21 protons on target and an average neutrino energy of approximately 0.8 GeV. The result provides the first constraint on charged-current coherent pion production on argon nucleus at sub-GeV energies and supplies important input for improving neutrino interaction modeling in current and future experiments such as DUNE.

Hussain, Adil [Kansas State U.] (ORCID:00000001621↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward Modeling the Orbits of Companions to Pulsating Stars from Their Light Travel Time Variations

Mutual gravitation between a pulsating star and an orbital companion leads to a time-dependent variation in path length for starlight traveling to Earth. These variations can be used for coherently pulsating stars, such as the δ Scuti variables, to constrain the masses and orbits of their companions. Observing these variations for δ Scuti stars has previously relied on subdividing the light curve and measuring the average pulsation phase in equally sized subdivisions, which leads to undersampling near periapsis. We introduce a new approach that simultaneously forward models each sample in the light curve and show that this method improves upon current sensitivity limits—especially in the case of highly eccentric and short-period binaries. We find that this approach is sensitive enough to observe Jupiter mass planets around δ Scuti stars under ideal conditions, and use gravity-mode pulsations in the subdwarf B star KIC 7668647 to detect its companion without radial velocity data. We further provide robust detection limits as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio of the pulsation mode and determine that the minimum detectable light travel time amplitude for a typical Kepler δ Scuti is around 2 s. This new method significantly enhances the application of light travel time variations to detecting short-period binaries with pulsating components, and pulsating A-type exoplanet host stars, especially as a tool for eliminating false positives.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recoil imaging for dark matter, neutrinos, and physics beyond the Standard Model

Recoil imaging entails the detection of spatially resolved ionization tracks generated by particle interactions. This is a highly sought-after capability in many classes of detector, with broad applications across particle and astroparticle physics. However, at low energies, where ionization signatures are small in size, recoil imaging only seems to be a practical goal for micro-pattern gas detectors. This white paper outlines the physics case for recoil imaging, and puts forward a decadal plan to advance towards the directional detection of low-energy recoils with sensitivity and resolution close to fundamental performance limits. The science case covered includes: the discovery of dark matter into the neutrino fog, directional detection of sub-MeV solar neutrinos, the precision study of coherent-elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering, the detection of solar axions, the measurement of the Migdal effect, X-ray polarimetry, and several other applied physics goals. We also outline the R&D programs necessary to test concepts that are crucial to advance detector performance towards their fundamental limit: single primary electron sensitivity with full 3D spatial resolution at the $\sim$100 micron-scale. These advancements include: the use of negative ion drift, electron counting with high-definition electronic readout, time projection chambers with optical readout, and the possibility for nuclear recoil tracking in high-density gases such as argon. We also discuss the readout and electronics systems needed to scale-up such detectors to the ton-scale and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗