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NASA NTRS1998

Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

Mortlock, Alan↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cost/benefit tradeoffs for reducing the energy consumption of the commercial air transportation system

The fuel saving potential and cost effectiveness of numerous operational and technical options proposed for reducing the fuel consumption of the U.S. commercial airline fleet was examined and compared. The impact of the most promising fuel conserving options on fuel consumption, passenger demand, operating costs and airline profits when implemented in the U.S. domestic and international airline fleets was determined. A forecast estimate was made of the potential fuel savings achievable in the U.S. scheduled air transportation system. Specifically, the means for reducing the jet fuel consumption of the U.S. scheduled airlines in domestic and international passenger operations were investigated. A design analysis was made of two turboprop aircraft as possible fuel conserving derivatives of the DC-9-30.

Kraus, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

High Altitude Radiations Relevant to the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)

The Langley Research Center (LaRC) performed atmospheric radiation studies under the SST development program in which important ionizing radiation components were measured and extended by calculations to develop the existing atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) model. In that program the measured neutron spectrum was limited to less than 10 MeV by the available 1960-1970 instrumentation. Extension of the neutron spectrum to high energies was made using the LaRC PROPER-3C monte carlo code. It was found that the atmospheric neutrons contributed about half of the dose equivalent and approximately half of the neutron contribution was from high energy neutrons above 10 MeV. Furthermore, monte carlo calculations of solar particle events showed that potential exposures as large as 10-100 mSv/hr may occur on important high latitude routes but acceptable levels of exposure could be obtained if timely descent to subsonic altitudes could be made. The principal concern was for pregnant occupants onboard the aircraft. As a result of these studies the FAA Advisory Committee on the Radiobiological Aspects of the SST recommended: 1. Crew members will have to be informed of their exposure levels 2. Maximum exposures on any flight to be limited to 5 mSv 3. Airborne radiation detection devices for total exposure and exposure rates 4. Satellite monitoring system to provide SST aircraft real-time information on atmospheric radiation levels for exposure mitigation 5. A solar forecasting system to warn flight operations of an impending solar event for flight scheduling and alert status. These recommendations are a reasonable starting point to requirements for the HSCT with some modification reflecting new standards of protection as a result of changing risk coefficients.

Wilson, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the GP model which in turn produces the pre-schedule of the optimal control model. Some preliminary results based on a hypothetical test case will be presented for the load forecasting module. The computer codes for the three modules will be made available fe adoption by bus operating agencies. Sample results will be provided using these models. The software will be a useful tool for supporting the control systems for the Electric Bus project of NASA.

Momoh, James↗

NASA NTRS2006

Version 5 Release Status and Plans: AIRS Science Team

This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of version 5 of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) software. The overarching goal for version 5 is to enhance AIRS software to expand its utility for climate research and to improve the impact on weather forecasting.

focus group↗

NASA NTRS2005

A model to assess the Mars Telecommunications Network relay robustness

The relatively long mission durations and compatible radio protocols of current and projected Mars orbiters have enabled the gradual development of a heterogeneous constellation providing proximity communication services for surface assets. The current and forecasted capability of this evolving network has reached the point that designers of future surface missions consider complete dependence on it. Such designers, along with those architecting network requirements, have a need to understand the robustness of projected communication service. A model has been created to identify the robustness of the Mars Network as a function of surface location and time. Due to the decade-plus time horizon considered, the network will evolve, with emerging productive nodes and nodes that cease or fail to contribute. The model is a flexible framework to holistically process node information into measures of capability robustness that can be visualized for maximum understanding. Outputs from JPL's Telecom Orbit Analysis Simulation Tool (TOAST) provide global telecom performance parameters for current and projected orbiters. Probabilistic estimates of orbiter fuel life are derived from orbit keeping burn rates, forecasted maneuver tasking, and anomaly resolution budgets. Orbiter reliability is estimated probabilistically. A flexible scheduling framework accommodates the projected mission queue as well as potential alterations.

Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO)↗

NASA NTRS2012

Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of transitioning these products to collaborating WFOs throughout the country.

Fuell, Kevin K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

DSN Resource Scheduling

TIGRAS is client-side software, which provides tracking-station equipment planning, allocation, and scheduling services to the DSMS (Deep Space Mission System). TIGRAS provides functions for schedulers to coordinate the DSN (Deep Space Network) antenna usage time and to resolve the resource usage conflicts among tracking passes, antenna calibrations, maintenance, and system testing activities. TIGRAS provides a fully integrated multi-pane graphical user interface for all scheduling operations. This is a great improvement over the legacy VAX VMS command line user interface. TIGRAS has the capability to handle all DSN resource scheduling aspects from long-range to real time. TIGRAS assists NASA mission operations for DSN tracking of station equipment resource request processes from long-range load forecasts (ten years or longer), to midrange, short-range, and real-time (less than one week) emergency tracking plan changes. TIGRAS can be operated by NASA mission operations worldwide to make schedule requests for the DSN station equipment.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗

NASA NTRS2013

GSFC Technology Development Center Report

This report summarizes the activities of the GSFC Technology Development Center (TDC) for 2012 and forecasts planned activities for 2013. The GSFC TDC develops station software including the Field System (FS), scheduling software (SKED), hardware including tools for station timing and meteorology, scheduling algorithms, and operational procedures. It provides a pool of individuals to assist with station implementation, check-out, upgrades, and training.

Himwich, Ed↗

NASA NTRS1988

Technology forecast and applications for autonomous, intelligent systems

Significant research products which have emerged from the core program of NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) are discussed. The Space Station Thermal Control System, the Space Shuttle Integrated Communications Officer Station, the Launch Processing System, the Expert Scheduling System for Pioneer Venus Spacecraft, a Bayesian classification system, and a spaceborne multiprocessor system are included. The technology trends which led to these results are discussed and future developments in technology are forecasted.

Lum, Henry, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

Suggested hurricane operational scenario for GOES I-M

Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasts require optimum use of remote sensing capabilities, because conventional data sources cannot provide the necessary spatial and temporal data density over tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. In 1989, the first of a series of geostationary weather satellites, GOES 1-M, will be launched with the capability for simultaneous imaging and sounding. Careful scheduling of the GOES 1-M will enable measurements of both the wind and mass fields over the entire tropical cyclone activity area. The document briefly describes the GOES 1-M imager and sounder, surveys the data needs for hurricane forecasting, discusses how geostationary satellite observations help to meet them, and proposes a GOES 1-M schedule of observations and hurricane relevant derived products.

Menzel, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Solar particle event predictions for manned Mars missions

Manned space missions to Mars require consideration of the effects of high radiation doses produced by solar particle events (SPE). Without some provision for protection, the radiation doses from such events can exceed standards for maximum exposure and may be life threatening. Several alternative ways of providing protection require a capability for predicting SPE in time to take some protective actions. The SPE may occur at any time during the eleven year solar cycle so that two year missions cannot be scheduled to insure avoiding them although they are less likely to occur at solar minimum. The present forecasts are sufficiently accurate to use for setting alert modes but are not accurate enough to make yes/no decisions that have major mission operational impacts. Forecasts made for one to two year periods can only be done as probabilistic forecasts where there is a chance of SPE occurring. These are current capabilities but are not likely to change significantly by the year 2000 with the exception of some improvement in the one to ten day forecasts. The effects of SPE are concentrated in solar longitudes near where their parent solar flares occur, which will require a manned Mars mission to carry its own small solar telescope to monitor the development of potentially dangerous solar activity. The preferred telescope complement includes a solar X-ray imager, a hydrogen-alpha scanner, and a solar magnetograph.

Heckman, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements. Volume 4: Summary of special studies

Our final report for Phase 1 addressed the future space transportation needs and requirements based on the current assets, at the time, and their evolution through technology/advanced development using a path and schedule that supported the world leadership role of the United States in a responsible and realistic financial forecast. Always, and foremost, the recommendations placed high values on the safety and success of missions both manned and unmanned through a total quality management philosophy at Martin Marietta. The second phase of the STV contract involved the use of Technical Directives (TD) to provide short-term support for specialized tasks as required by the COTR. Three of these tasks were performed in parallel with Phase 1. These tasks were the Liquid Acquisition Experiment (LACE), Liquid Reorientation Experiment (LIRE), and Expert System for Design, Operation, and Technology Studies (ESDOTS). The results of these TD's were reported in conjunction with the Phase 1 Final Report. Cost analysis of existing launch systems has demonstrated a need for a new upper stage that will increase America's competitiveness in the global launch services market. To provide a growth path of future exploration class STV's, near-term low-cost upper stages featuring modularity, portability, scalability, and evolvability must be developed. These recommendations define a program that: leverages ongoing activities to establish a new development environment, develop technologies that benefit the entire life cycle of a system, and result in a scalable hardware platform that provides a growth path to future upper stages.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Validation Study of the Performance Prediction Methodology of the Early Warning Metrics

Complex projects frequently experience delays and develop backlogs of their project control milestones during the acquisition and development lifecycles. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) formed an independent group of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to monitor the execution performance of GSFC Flight projects and instruments that are under development. The SME team’s objective is to generate data driven performance-based indicators that quantify the degree to which projects are meeting their respective schedule and budget commitments. One of these performance-based indicators, the Early Warning Metrics, provides performance forecasts and insight to project performance relative to historical successful projects. Herein this paper describes the purpose and utility of the Early Warning Metrics. Additionally, the initial prediction method used in the creation of the metrics is described along with its validity and the validity of comparable prediction methods.

Holloman, Sherrica↗