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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systems and methods for geothermal energy storage

A method and system may be used for storing energy in a geothermal system and recovering both the stored energy as well as thermal energy on demand. The geothermal system may include injection and production wells that are hydraulically coupled in a geothermal energy reservoir that behaves as a confined reservoir system with thermal energy transferring to fluid injected into the injection well and removed via the production well. Injection flow rate, injection pressure, production flow rate, production backpressure, or fluid residence time may be managed to control energy consumption or energy generation profiles of the geothermal system. During an energy storage mode, the injection flow rate exceeds the production flow rate thereby storing energy in the geothermal reservoir. During an energy recovery mode, production backpressure is reduced thereby releasing the stored energy and electricity is generated by removing the thermal energy from the fluid in a heat engine.

Norbeck, Jack↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient evolution of permeability and friction in a slowly slipping fault activated by fluid pressurization

The mechanisms of permeability and friction evolution in a natural fault are investigated in situ. During three fluid injection experiments at different places in a fault zone, we measured simultaneously the fluid pressure, fault displacements and seismic activity. Changes in fault permeability and friction are then estimated concurrently. Results show that fault permeability increases up to 1.58 order of magnitude as a result of reducing effective normal stress and cumulative dilatant slip, and 19-to-60.8% of the enhancement occurs without seismic emissions. When modeling the fault displacement, we found that a rate-and-state friction and a permeability dependent on both slip and slip velocity together reasonably fit the fault-parallel and fault-normal displacements. This leads to the conclusion that the transient evolution of fault permeability and friction caused by a pressure perturbation exerts a potentially dominant control on fault stability during fluid flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A microCT-based platform to quantify drug targeting

Abstract Background Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent and debilitating complication of traumatic musculoskeletal injuries and orthopedic procedures. Prophylactic dosing of botulinum toxin type A (BTxA) holds potential as a novel treatment option if accurately distributed throughout soft-tissue volumes where protection is clinically desired. We developed a high-resolution, microcomputed tomography (microCT)-based imaging strategy to assess drug distribution and validated this platform by quantifying distribution achieved via a prototype delivery system versus a single-bolus injection. Methods We injected an iodine-containing contrast agent (iodixanol 320 mg I/mL) into dissected rabbit musculature followed by microCT imaging and analysis. To contrast the performance of distributed versus bolus injections, a three-dimensional (3D) 64-cm 3 -printed soft-tissue holder was developed. A centered 2-cm 3 volume of interest (VOI) was targeted with a single-bolus injection or an equal volume distributed injection delivered via a 3D-printed prototype. VOI drug coverage was quantified as a percentage of the VOI volume that was < 1.0 mm from the injected fluid. Results The microCT-based approach enabled high-resolution quantification of injection distribution within soft tissue. The distributed dosing prototype provided significantly greater tissue coverage of the targeted VOI (72 ± 3%, mean ± standard deviation) when compared to an equal volume bolus dose (43 ± 5%, p = 0.031) while also enhancing the precision of injection targeting. Conclusions A microCT-based imaging technique precisely quantifies drug distribution within a soft-tissue VOI, providing a path to overcome a barrier for clinical translation of prophylactic inhibition of HO by BTxA. Relevance statement This platform will facilitate rapid optimization of injection parameters for clinical devices used to effectively and safely inhibit the formation of heterotopic ossification. Key points • MicroCT provides high-resolution quantification of soft-tissue drug distribution. • Distributed dosing is required to maximize soft-tissue drug coverage. • Imaging platform will enable rapid screening of 3D-printed drug distribution prototypes. Graphical Abstract

Ausk, Brandon J. (ORCID:0000000335338303)↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ quantification of fracture slip induced by hydraulic injections in a deep borehole: A comparison of two different borehole techniques

In situ measurements of fracture deformation during fluid injection are rare, yet essential for understanding the mechanical response of fractured rock. In this study, we evaluate the reliability of two methods by comparing their slip vector estimates: high-resolution borehole acoustic televiewer images captured before and after injection tests, and displacement data from a three-component borehole deformation probe recorded during the injections. Acoustic televiewer images capture only final in-plane displacement, whereas three-component borehole deformation measurements provide full 3D, transient fracture movement. Four injection tests in a fractured granitic rock mass along an inclined borehole at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory (Switzerland), beneath more than 1100 m of overburden, were analyzed. The two methods yielded consistent kinematics and comparable slip magnitudes, typically in the range of 0.2 – 0.6 mm. Angular differences between estimated slip directions ranged from 0.2° to 28°. For two test intervals with pre-existing fractures optimally oriented for slip, the measured slip vectors agreed with forward-modeled slip vectors based on the regional in situ stress field, supporting the Wallace–Bott hypothesis. Measurable shear displacement was identified in two test intervals containing fractures oriented nearly perpendicular to the least principal stress, including a newly formed hydraulic fracture. This demonstrates that even fractures unfavorably oriented for slip can undergo shear due to local stress perturbations around an inclined borehole.

Acoustic televiewer↗
DOE OSTI2022

Porous Colloidal Nanoparticles as Injectable Multimodal Contrast Agents for Enhanced Geophysical Sensing

Injecting fluids into underground geologic structures is crucial for the development of long-term strategies for managing captured carbon and facilitating sustainable energy extraction operations. Here, we have previously reported that the injection of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) into the subsurface can enhance seismic monitoring tools to track fluids and map complex structures, reduce risk, and verify containment in carbon storage reservoirs because of their absorption capacity of low-frequency seismic waves. Here, we demonstrate that water-based Cr/Zn/Zr MOF colloidal suspensions (nanofluids) are multimodal geophysical contrast agents that enhance near-wellbore logging tools. Based on experimental fluid-only measurements, MIL-101(Cr), ZIF-8, and UiO-66 nanofluids have distinct complex conductivity and/or low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) signatures that are relevant to field-deployed technologies, implying the potential to enhance near-wellbore monitoring of CO 2 injection and associated processes with downhole logging tools. Small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering characterization of ~0.5 wt % MIL-101(Cr) suspensions confirmed phase stability and provided insight into the fractal nature of colloidal nanoparticles. Finally, low-field (2 MHz) NMR measurements of MIL-101(Cr) nanofluid injection into a prototypical Berea sandstone demonstrate how paramagnetic high-surface area MOFs may dominate the relaxation times of hydrogen-bearing fluids in porous geologic matrices, enhancing the mapping of near-surface and near-wellbore transport pathways and advancing sustainable subsurface energy technologies.

NMR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32/Well16B(78)-32 Circulation Test Data

This dataset encompasses the collected data and associated reports from the low-rate injection circulation test conducted on wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 in July 2023 at Utah FORGE. It includes comprehensive raw circulation data, captured by Pason and Schlumberger (SLB). The dataset details various parameters recorded during circulation testing such as produced fluid, injection pressure, injection rate, produced rate, temperature, downhole pressure difference, bottom hole pressure in the well, and surface treating pressure. Note that the Pason data is presented in Mountain Time, whereas the SLB data is in Pacific Time.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relocating microseismicity from downhole monitoring of the Decatur CCS site using a modified double-difference algorithm

SUMMARY The injection of CO2 at the Decatur carbon capture and storage site has generated significant microseismic activity, which occurs in distinct spatial clusters up to approximately 2.2 km from the primary injection well. Accurate and precise event locations are vital for the characterization of the microseismicity to help understand the reservoir response to the CO2 injection, whilst enabling the identification of minor faults and fractures below the resolution of conventional active seismic imaging. However, microseismic monitoring of fluid injection sites, such as Decatur, is often performed using a network of borehole sensors often from a single well. While these downhole sensors have excellent detection capabilities, their poor azimuthal coverage limits the ability to precisely determine event locations. We have developed a modified double-difference relocation algorithm suitable for both 1-D and 3-D velocity models, and which incorporates differential back azimuth observations to allow the benefits of the original double-difference algorithm to be applicable to a downhole microseismic monitoring setting. Applying the modified double-difference algorithm to the microseismicity at Decatur, we have successfully relocated 4293 events. The relocation included over 59 million observations for 757 285 event pairs, split across seven geographic regions. Despite the majority of observations being recorded in only two boreholes, with an almost identical azimuthal coverage, the results have shown to be reliable with significantly reduced residuals and low uncertainties associated with the final locations. We have analysed the residuals in terms of their association with each geographic region, data type, station and individual events, to fully appreciate their influence in the inversion and the fit of the data to the final set of event locations. For each region, the relocated seismicity has become less diffuse with improved clustering, and with newly visible linear features often orientated in a NE–SW direction. These results show the potential improvements that can be made to microseismic event locations recorded by a borehole network with a limited and variable azimuthal distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control Mechanisms for Self‐Sealing in Activated Clay‐Rich Faults Through Controlled Hydraulic Injection Experiment

Abstract In a high‐pressure injection fault activation experiment conducted at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland, the transmissivity of the Opalinus Clay fault significantly increased due to opening and shearing. The fluid injection, spanning a few hours, generated a 10 m radius fault activation patch. Subsequent pressure pulse tests conducted bi‐weekly for a year revealed the gradual return of fault transmissivity to its initial state. The study utilized fluid pressure decay analysis, optical fiber monitoring, continuous active source seismic measurements and borehole displacement sensors for measuring fault displacements. The fault zone exhibited a dilation of approximately 1.4 mm, associated with both normal and tangential movements during activation, resulting in a sudden transmissivity increase from 1 × 10 −12 to 3.2 × 10 −7 m 2 /s. Early post‐activation, transient compaction and the subsequent slow compaction were observed, transitioning to an extension regime. The pressure pulse tests demonstrated a rapid transmissivity drop by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 10 days, followed by a gradual and less pronounced decrease. Plastic shear and compaction dominated the transmissivity evolution until 70 days after injection ended, followed by a period where additional factors, such as clay mineral swelling, influenced the behavior. Extrapolation suggested a sealing process taking at least 50 years after the initial activation. Plain Language Summary A field‐scale fault activation experiment offers valuable insights into the elasto‐plastic processes governing the sealing of shale faults. The experiment reveals a rapid increase in the fault's transmissivity by approximately five orders of magnitude during activation. Subsequent observations show a gradual transmissivity decrease by about three orders of magnitude post‐activation, with slow long‐term plastic shear and compaction of the fault competing against secondary processes, notably clay mineral swelling. All conceptual models employed to interpret these field data converge on the estimation that the fault's return to its initial low transmissivity state would require a minimum of 50 years. Key Points High‐pressure injection fault activation experiment at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory Continuous transmissivity measurements record self‐sealing inside a clay‐rich fault zone Transmissivity undergoes a phase of domination by slow plastic compaction and shearing during the initial post‐activation period, with mineral swelling exerting its influence over the long term

Guglielmi, Yves↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transport of polymer-coated metal–organic framework nanoparticles in porous media

Abstract Injecting fluids into deep underground geologic structures is a critical component to development of long-term strategies for managing greenhouse gas emissions and facilitating energy extraction operations. Recently, we reported that metal–organic frameworks are low-frequency, absorptive-acoustic metamaterial that may be injected into the subsurface to enhance geophysical monitoring tools used to track fluids and map complex structures. A key requirement for this nanotechnology deployment is transportability through porous geologic media without being retained by mineral-fluid interfaces. We used flow-through column studies to estimate transport and retention properties of five different polymer-coated MIL-101(Cr) nanoparticles (NP) in siliceous porous media. When negatively charged polystyrene sulfonate coated nanoparticles (NP-PSS-70K) were transported in 1 M NaCl, only about 8.4% of nanoparticles were retained in the column. Nanoparticles coated with polyethylenimine (NP-PD1) exhibited significant retention (> 50%), emphasizing the importance of complex nanoparticle-fluid-rock interactions for successful use of nanofluid technologies in the subsurface. Nanoparticle transport experiments revealed that nanoparticle surface characteristics play a critical role in nanoparticle colloidal stability and as well the transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Subsurface Fracture Evolution Dynamics Using Time‐Lapse Full Waveform Inversion of Continuous Active‐Source Seismic Monitoring Data

Abstract Predicting the behavior, geometry, and flow properties of subsurface fractures remains a challenging problem. Seismic models that can characterize fractures usually suffer from low spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we develop a correlative double‐difference time‐lapse full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring data for determining high‐spatiotemporal‐resolution time‐lapse V p models of in‐situ fracture evolution at a shallow contamination site in Wyoming, USA. Assisted by rock physics modeling, we find that (a) rapidly increasing pore pressure initializes and grows the fracture, increasing the porosity slightly (from ∼13.7% to ∼14.6%) in the tight clay formation, thus decreasing V p (∼50 m/s); (b) the fluid injection continues decreasing V p , likely through the introduction of gas bubbles in the injectate; and (c) final V p reductions reach over ∼150 m/s due to a posited ∼4.5% gas saturation. Our results demonstrate that high‐resolution V p changes are indicative of mechanical and fluid changes within the fracture zone during hydrofracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Investigation of Polymer Induced Fouling of Heater Tubes in the First-Ever Polymer Flood Pilot on Alaska North Slope

Mineral fouling in heat exchangers has been extensively investigated by researchers in recent times. The oil and gas industry has a long history of fouling issues in production systems as a result of produced fluids treatment. Due to decline in production rates in oilfields new technologies are being developed and field tested in pilots. Polymer flooding is one such technology that involves addition of polymers to injection fluids to enhance oil production. A polymer flood pilot has been set up in the Schrader Bluff viscous oil reservoir at Milne Point field on the Alaska North Slope (ANS). The results from the pilot are encouraging, however a major concern of the operator is the influence of polymer on the production system after breakthrough, especially the fouling in heat exchangers. This study investigates the propensity of polymer fouling on the heater tubes as a function of different variables, with the ultimate goal of determining safe and efficient operating conditions. This work applies a multi-experimental approach to study the severity of polymer-induced fouling in both dynamic and static states of produced fluids as well as studying the stability of polymer solutions at different temperatures. A unique experimental setup was designed and developed in-house to simulate the fouling process on the heating tube. The influence of heating tube skin temperature, tube material, and polymer concentration on fouling tendency was investigated. Each test was run five times with the same tube, and in each run, the freshly prepared synthetic brine and polymer solution was heated from 77°F to 122°F to mimic field-operating conditions. The heating time and fouling amount were recorded for each run. Dynamic Scale Loop (DSL) tests were conducted to study fouling due to polymer at different temperatures (165°F to 350°F) in a dynamic state of fluid flow where the fluids mimic the residence time of fluids in the heat exchanger on the field pilot. Cloud point measurement has also been conducted to find the critical temperature at which the polymer in solution becomes unstable and precipitates out. The morphology and composition of the deposit samples were analyzed by environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD), respectively. It was found that the presence of polymer in produced fluids would aggravate the fouling issues on both carbon steel and stainless-steel surfaces at all tested skin temperatures. Only higher skin temperatures of 250°F and 350°F could cause polymer-induced fouling issues on the copper tube surface, and the fouling tendency increased with polymer concentration. At the lower skin temperatures of 165°F, no polymer-induced fouling was identified on the copper tube. A critical temperature that is related to the cloud point of the polymer solution was believed to exist, below which polymer-induced fouling would not occur, and only mineral scale was deposited but above which the polymer would aggravate the fouling issue. The cloud point of the tested polymer solution was determined to be between 220°F and 230°F. In the DSL tests it was found that at higher skin temperatures of 250°F and 350°F tube blocking was observed in the DSL tests whereas the tests at 165°F and 200°F did not show any tube blocking in the same time period. These experiments also manifested the influence of cloud point of the solution as deposit rate increased significantly in both carbon steel and stainless-steel tubes when the skin temperature was higher than the solution cloud point. The results of this study have provided guidance to the operator for the field-operations.

Dhaliwal, Anshul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Modelling of Stockton University Reservoir Cooling System, Fine Scale Stress Test Modelling

Mesh, properties, initial conditions, injection/withdrawal rates for modelling thermal, hydrological, and mechanical effects of fluid injection to and withdrawal from ground for Stockton University reservoir cooling system (aquifer storage cooling system), Galloway, New Jersey, for unscheduled two hour injection at 133 % designed capacity, on fine scale grid, with some results. Second simulation of J.T. Smith, E. Sonnenthal, P. Dobson, P. Nico, and M. Worthington, 2021. Thermal-hydrological-mechanical modeling of Stockton University reservoir cooling system, Proceedings of the 46th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, SGP-TR-218, from which Figures 6-9, pertain.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative geochemistry of flowback chemistry from the Utica/Point Pleasant and Marcellus formations

Flowback/Produced fluid samples were collected from several wells from two Utica/Point Pleasant (UPP) sites (UPPW and UPPS) in Ohio, and one Marcellus (Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL)) site in West Virginia over a period of approximately two years. Although these formations have different ages, depositional environments, diagenetic histories, and geochemical and mineralogical compositions (i.e. the UPP is significantly more carbonate rich than the Marcellus which is more siliceous), analysis of trends in fluid species over time shows that, overall, the TDS and major solubilized elements (Na, Ca, Cl) in the UPP and Marcellus brines are remarkably similar. Total dissolved solutes (TDS) in these brines ranged from approximately 40 to 250 g/L salt, and in general, concentrations increased with time elapsed since natural gas well completion and stimulation. The behavior of Na, Br, and Cl suggests that the produced water signatures from these formations are largely derived from the native formational brines which display evidence of originating from evaporated seawater. There is a strong correlation between Cl and Br, indicating that both species behave conservatively, and the similarity among each of these brines suggests no appreciable contribution of salt from halite dissolution because Br is excluded from the halite structure. Cl/Br ratios in the brines range from ~80 to 120 (mg/L/mg/L). Other elements, such as K, which readily reacts between fluids and ion exchange sites on clays, generally exhibit conservative behavior for an individual site, but show significant variations among each of the different well pads. The concentrations of Sr and Ba vary dramatically among well sites, and increase with respect to Cl- over time, suggesting increasing solubilization, presumably from desorption from clay minerals or dissolution of carbonates or sulfates from the source formation(s). The UPPW well site has very low Ba due to high-sulfate input fluid, which resulted in precipitation of barite/celestite in the brines. In contrast the UPPS well site had elevated Sr (~ 3500 mg/L), presumably due to the use of Sr-rich recycled brine used in hydraulic fracturing. The Marcellus site had the highest Ba concentrations (up to 10 g/L) and highest Ba/Sr ratios in the fluids, due to the high concentration of barium in the Marcellus target (~ 1000 ppm, as compared to ~200 ppm in the UPP). These observations suggest that solutes in the FP fluids are derived from native brines, water-rock interactions that have occurred over geologic time scales, as well as some contribution from contemporaneous reactions in the subsurface. The results also show that the composition of the injected fluid can influence flowback fluid chemistry and possibly production efficiency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Whether Subsurface Fluid Production Can Minimize Triggered Seismicity in Geothermal Fields

Fluid injection and production related to energy recovery and other industrial operations alter the pressure and stress state of subsurface reservoirs which can lead to induced seismicity. Here, the primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that the modulation of stress state in subsurface reservoirs through fluid injection/production operations can reduce the likelihood of inducing seismicity. Validation of this mitigation strategy will provide an active operational method to control induced seismicity in subsurface reservoir exploitations such as geothermal energy recovery and carbon storage. In this project, we analyze the relationship between extensive fluid production and the paucity of aftershock activity at the Coso Geothermal plant (CGP) following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, where high rates of aftershock triggering were expected. We developed a high-fidelity multiphase coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model to simulate fluid injection/production activities at the CGP between 1986 and 2020. THM results of surface subsidence due to high rates of fluid production agree well with field observations from global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsequently, the variations of pore pressure, temperature and stress state were used to drive numerical earthquake simulations of the aftershock response to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes. The earthquake simulations show that seismic quiescence may occur following the Ridgecrest event, depending on the initial stress state at the time of the mainshock and at the initiation of geothermal energy production. Seismic quiescence occurs in 20% of the cases we explored, where rates are decreased by 50% of the background rate in the two years following the mainshock. In circumstances where aftershock rates increase near the CGP following Ridgecrest, the average rate change is a factor of two larger than background rates from simulations with no operations. These findings indicate that unlike many other operations that bring faults closer to failure, operations at the CGP are acting to stabilize faults such that triggering in the current stress state is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Association Between Injection and Microseismicity in Geothermal Fields With Multiple Wells: Data-Driven Modeling of Rotokawa, New Zealand, and Húsmúli, Iceland

Understanding injection-induced microseismicity in geothermal systems can provide insight into reservoir connectedness. However, fault and reservoir complexity are difficult to represent in simple analytical models, which makes it difficult to discern clear relationships from incidental associations. Here, we have used data-driven models to study how fluid injection and microseismicity are related in the Rotokawa (New Zealand) and Hellisheiði (Iceland) geothermal fields. We tested two classes of model: (a) lagged linear regression of seismicity rate as a function of well injection rates; and (b) systematic extraction of injection time series features that are then evaluated for associations with the seismicity. These models allowed us to determine which wells had the greatest correlation with microseismicity and to explain this association in a reservoir context. Finally, exploring different data types and transformations, we were unable to establish a link between rapid changes in injection rate and seismicity spikes, as suggested by some theoretical models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗