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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Unified nonparametric equation-of-state inference from the neutron-star crust to perturbative-QCD densities

Perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD), while valid only at densities exceeding those found in the cores of neutron stars, could provide constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). Here, in this work, we examine the impact of pQCD information on the inference of the EOS using a nonparametric framework based on Gaussian processes (GPs). We examine the application of pQCD constraints through a ``pQCD likelihood,'' and verify the findings of previous works; namely, a softening of the EOS at the central densities of the most massive neutron stars and a reduction in the maximum neutron-star mass. Although the pQCD likelihood can be easily integrated into existing EOS inference frameworks, this approach requires an arbitrary selection of the density at which the constraints are applied. The EOS behavior is also treated differently on either side of the chosen density. To mitigate these issues, we extend the EOS model to higher densities, thereby constructing a ``unified'' description of the EOS from the neutron-star crust to densities relevant for pQCD. In this approach the pQCD constraints effectively become part of the prior. Since the EOS is unconstrained by any calculation or data between the densities applicable to neutron stars and pQCD, we argue for maximum modeling flexibility in that regime. We compare the unified EOS with the traditional pQCD likelihood, and although we confirm the EOS softening, we do not see a reduction in the maximum neutron-star mass or any impact on macroscopic observables. Though residual model dependence cannot be ruled out, we find that pQCD suggests the speed of sound in the densest neutron-star cores has already started decreasing toward the asymptotic limit; we find that the speed of sound squared at the center of the most massive neutron star has an upper bound of $\sim 0.5$ at the 90% level.

equations of state of nuclear matter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue shear

Modeling the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies poses a challenge to weak lensing analyses. Here, using the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 shape catalog, we expect less impact from IA when we limit the sample to blue, star-forming galaxies. The cosmological parameter constraints from this BLUE cosmic shear sample are stable to IA model choice, unlike passive galaxies in the full DES Y3 sample, the goodness-of-fit is improved and the Ω m and 𝑆 8 better agree with the observations from Planck on the cosmic microwave background. Mitigating IA with sample selection in DES, rather than flexible model choices, can reduce uncertainty in 𝑆 8 by a factor of 1.5.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

GRIDAPPSD/distopf (33583-E)

DistOPF is an open-source Python package providing a three-phase, asymmetric optimal power flow (OPF) tool specifically designed for distribution systems. The key inventive features include: - Asymmetrical 3-phase OPF modeling for distribution systems with unbalanced phases - Comprehensive control optimization supporting both active (P) and reactive (Q) power control variables - Built-in visualization and validation tools - Standard test system benchmarking platform for algorithm development and comparison - Modular CSV-based input system using Pandas DataFrames for flexible model specification - Standard power distribution model importer enabling direct conversion from CIM and OpenDSS format to optimization-ready models - Multiple solve interface compatibility (PYOMO, CVXPY, SciPy) with automatic solver selection based on problem type

Gray, Nathan [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Latent variable Gaussian process models: A rank‐based analysis and an alternative approach

Abstract Gaussian process (GP) models have been extended to emulate expensive computer simulations with both qualitative/categorical and quantitative/continuous variables. Latent variable (LV) GP models, which have been recently developed to map each qualitative variable to some underlying numerical LVs, have strong physics‐based justification and have achieved promising performance. Two versions use LVs in Cartesian (LV‐Car) space and hyperspherical (LV‐sph) space, respectively. Despite their success, the effects of these different LV structures are still poorly understood. This article illuminates this issue with two contributions. First, we develop a theorem on the effect of the ranks of the qualitative factor correlation matrices of mixed‐variable GP models, from which we conclude that the LV‐sph model restricts the interactions between the input variables and thus restricts the types of response surface data with which the model can be consistent. Second, following a rank‐based perspective like in the theorem, we propose a new alternative model named LV‐mix that combines the LV‐based correlation structures from both LV‐Car and LV‐sph models to achieve better model flexibility than them. Through extensive case studies, we show that LV‐mix achieves higher average accuracy compared with the existing two.

Tao, Siyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surviving nanoscale interfacial stability in extreme thermal expansion contrast Zn(CN) 2 -epoxy resin matrix composites

Here, we report the remarkable stability at the nanoscale matrix-filler interface in a series of overall low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) zinc cyanide (ZC)/epoxy resin composites. These interfaces demonstrate the stability of highly contrasting materials. These composites are designed to optimize the properties of both materials: epoxy resins are valued for their high strength, superb chemical resistance, low dielectric properties, and adhesive abilities. ZC, a model flexible framework, exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) behavior and compensates for the epoxy resin’s detrimentally large thermal expansion values. Filled resins minimize the native 65 ppm/°C CTE values to 19 ppm/° C over a wide temperature range while maintaining linearity, yielding composites compatible with typical metal and ceramic substrates’—commonly bonded to the resin— 0–20 ppm/° C CTE values. Additionally, with significant intrinsic differences in the materials, we use wide-angle X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy to elucidate thermal movement. The ZC/epoxy interface is surprisingly resilient over 1,000 cycles between -55° C and 75° C, extremes typical to aerospace applications. Further, we show that the resin viscosity remains less than 21 Pa*s at up to 30 vol% ZC, an important consideration for workability. We also discuss settling distribution, glass transition temperature, flexural strength, and longevity. All results point favorably towards practical implementation in low thermal expansion application needs: filling the gap in component design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

NEXTorch: A Design and Bayesian Optimization Toolkit for Chemical Sciences and Engineering

Automation and optimization of chemical systems require well-informed decisions on what experiments to run to reduce time, materials, and/or computations. Data-driven active learning algorithms have emerged as valuable tools to solve such tasks. Bayesian optimization, a sequential global optimization approach, is a popular active-learning framework. Past studies have demonstrated its efficiency in solving chemistry and engineering problems. Here we introduce NEXTorch, a library in Python/PyTorch, to facilitate laboratory or computational design using Bayesian optimization. NEXTorch offers fast predictive modeling, flexible optimization loops, visualization capabilities, easy interfacing with legacy software, and multiple types of parameters and data type conversions. It provides GPU acceleration, parallelization, and state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization algorithms and supports both automated an d human-in-the-loop optimization. The comprehensive online documentation introduces Bayesian optimization theory and several examples from catalyst synthesis, reaction condition optimization, parameter estimation, and reactor geometry optimization. NEXTorch is open-source and available on GitHub

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

QLiG: Query Like a Graph For Subgraph Matching

A graph is a natural and flexible modeling approach to represent entities and relationships between them in real-world. A Knowledge Graphs (KG) is a specialized graph with formal and structured representation of facts, relationships, annotated with semantic descriptions. Subgraph matching is one of the fundamental graph problems to identify relationships, interactions and activities of interest within a large graph. A query specification is a collection of abstract components, operations, and constraints to express a pattern. The specification can be implemented in different ways based on underlying data model. Various graph query specifications have been developed over the years and have led to the development of different open-sourced and vendor-specific query languages. Such specification are modeled as an extension of relational algebra used to develop relational query languages such as SQL. Such relational concepts do not inherently support graph queries. There is a need to represent graph queries in terms on graph-based components to expedite query construction by non-database experts. We present a graph-based query approach QLiG (pronounced cleeg), to perform subgraph matching in Labeled Property Graph. We present the query specifications, salient features, and a use case to show functional examples.

Purohit, Sumit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient and Robust Dynamic Simulation of Power Systems With Holomorphic Embedding

Dynamic simulation is vitally important in power system analysis, but traditional approaches based on numerical integration over small time steps are time-consuming. Also, the Newton-Raphson method suffers from difficulty in convergence when solving nonlinear algebraic equations. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic simulation approach based on holomorphic embedding. By obtaining a high-order approximation of system dynamics, it achieves a much larger time step and thus enhances the computational efficiency significantly. In addition, the new approach avoids non-convergence issues in solving algebraic equations, which improves robustness. The approach includes flexible modeling of synchronous generators and controllers, and we propose a method for modeling generator coordinate transformations. The approach is tested on the IEEE 39-bus, 10-generator system and a Polish 2383-bus, 327-generator system. The results demonstrate promising computational efficiency and satisfactory numerical robustness for the analysis of large-scale power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

RxnRover/amlro

AMLRO (Active Machine Learning Reaction Optimizer) is an open-source framework designed to accelerate chemical reaction optimization using active learning with classical machine learning regression models. AMLRO integrates space-filling sampling strategies (e.g., Sobol and Latin Hypercube sampling) with iterative model training, prediction, and experiment selection to efficiently navigate complex reaction spaces. The platform supports multiple regression models, flexible multi-objective definitions, and user-defined parameter bounds, enabling data-efficient optimization from small initial datasets. AMLRO is designed for ease of use by experimentalists and can operate as a standalone decision-support tool or be integrated into closed-loop automated experimentation workflows.

Kulathunga, Dulitha Prasanna [Iowa State Universit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Room Temperature Quasi-static Characterization and Constitutive Model Parametrization of Flexible Polyurethane Foams of Different Densities Loaded in Different Orientations

This report describes the efforts to characterize and model General Plastics TF6070 and EF4000 flexible polyurethane foams under room temperature, large deformation quasi-static cyclic mechanical loading conditions. Densities from three to fifteen pound per cubic foot (PCF) are examined, which correspond to relative densities of approximately 4 to 20%. These foams are open cell structured and flexible at room temperature with a glass transition transition less than -30°C, and they fully recover their original shape when unloaded (at room temperature). Uniaxial compression tests were conducted with accompanying lateral image series for Digital Image Correlation (DIC) analysis with the goal of extracting transverse strain responses. Due to difficulties with DIC analysis at large strains, lateral strains were instead extracted for each test via edge tracking. The experimental results exhibit a nonlinear elastic response and anisotropic material behavior (particularly for the lower densities). Some hysteresis is observed that is different between the first and subsequent cycles of deformation indicating both a small degree of permanent damage (reduced stiffness during reloading) and viscoelasticity. These inelastic mechanisms are not considered in the modeling and calibration in this report. This work considers only the rate independent, room temperature foam behavior. Individual foam densities were calibrated for loading in two directions, parallel and perpendicular to the foam bubble rise direction, since the mechanical behavior is different in these two directions. The Flex Foam constitutive model was used for all parameterizations despite the fact that the model is isotropic. A review of the constitutive model is given as well as necessary data reduction procedures to parameterize it for each foam density and orientation are discussed. Finally, two different parameterizations are developed that take the undeformed foam density as an input that span all densities considered. These two parameterized models represent foams loaded in the rise and transverse directions respectively. We summarize the assumptions and limitations of the parameterizations provided in this report to guide analysis choices with them. All parameterizations presented herein have the following traits, room temperature, rate independent, damage-free, and non-dissipative . Isotropy (even if they are representing anisotropic data). Supplied Sierra Solid Mechanics Flex Foam Model Inputs are in units: pounds, inches, Celsius, and seconds

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stabilized Hyperfoam Modeling of the General Plastics EF4003 (3 PCF) Flexible Foam

Constitutive model parameterizations for the General Plastics EF4003 low density 3 pound per cubic foot are needed for design and qualification purposes in normal and abnormal mechanical simulations. The material is expected to be deformed in two ways: first during preloading, and second under impact conditions of the system (transient dynamic). All analyses are to be performed at room temperature. The goal is to provide the analysis community a robust constitutive model parameterization to represent the compression behavior of the EF4003 foam from small deformations up to massive compressive deformations when the foam is densifying. It is worth noting the EF4003 exhibits anisotropy in its stress-strain behavior between the rise and transverse directions (See figure 2.8c-d) as well as plateau behavior that is very likely to cause material stability issues, due to the buckling transition, (and has historically done so) when using Sandia’s current workhorse models for flexible foams, Hyperfoam and Flex Foam. A Stability-informed Hyperfoam parameterization procedure is developed and executed to calibrate a hyperfoam model for the EF4003 room temperature, transversely loaded data. A rise orientation parameterization was not attempted due to localization in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wattchmen: Watching the Wattchers – High Fidelity, Flexible GPU Energy Modeling

Modern GPU-rich HPC systems are increasingly becoming energy-constrained. Thus, understanding an application’s energy consumption becomes essential. Unfortunately, current GPU energy attribution techniques are either inaccurate, inflexible, or outdated. Therefore, we propose Wattchmen, a flexible methodology for measuring, attributing, and predicting GPU energy consumption. We construct a per-instruction energy model using a diverse set of microbenchmarks to systematically quantify the energy consumption of GPU instructions, enabling finer-grain prediction and energy consumption breakdowns for applications. Compared with the state-of-the-art systems like AccelWattch (32%) and Guser (25%), across 16 popular GPGPU, graph analytics, HPC, and ML workloads, Wattchmen reduces the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) to 14% on V100 GPUs. Furthermore, we show that Wattchmen provides similar MAPEs for water-cooled V100s (15%) and extends to later architectures, including air-cooled A100 (11%) and H100 (12%) GPUs. Finally, to further demonstrate Wattchmen ’s value, we apply it to applications such as Backprop and QMCPACK, where Wattchmen ’s insights enable energy reductions of up to 35%.

Tran, Brandon [University of Wisconsin, Madison] (↗