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DOE OSTI2022

Risk-Informed Operations and Maintenance Decision Making Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

A challenge for operating nuclear power plants is the significant cost of operations and maintenance, at times consuming up to 66% of annual operating costs. This project aims to build a framework for a risk-informed asset-management tool that integrates inspections, repairs, spare-part inventory, supply chain, and business choices to lower overall O&M costs. Our approach uses a combination of data-driven modeling and deep reinforcement learning to create and implement optimal maintenance policies for the existing nuclear fleet, as well as new advanced reactors. The creation of an asset management tool that uses these advanced methods will give operators new capabilities to help reduce the burden of O&M spending in nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of Dynamic Ride-Sharing by Considering User Preference Through Discount and Delay Tolerance

Dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) has been projected to be a key solution to lowering system-wide congestion. Despite recent development progress, demand studies for DRS suggest low levels of willingness for travelers to use such services. The disconnect between DRS system designs and user preferences limits the application impacts of DRS in the real world. Therefore, this paper aims to design a new DRS system by considering the user preferences of choices under different levels of services. In this study, an agent-based approach is used to model a fleet of shared vehicles that allows DRS. An optimization model is developed to match riders to vehicles while accounting for traveler delay and delay acceptance. Travelers are also dynamically issued predictive discounts to incentivize them to accept longer trip delays. Results show that the proposed approach can improve system efficiency by increasing average vehicle occupancy by up to 1.0 persons/trip and DRS acceptance up to 38.9% depending on fleet size. Additionally, congestion is eased through the decrease of empty vehicle miles traveled by up to 7.1%.

Paul, Joseph↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Human Factors in Dynamic Rideshare Assignment: Willingness-To-Pay for Delay

Dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) has been projected to be a key solution to lowering system-wide congestion. Despite recent developmental progress, demand studies for DRS suggest low levels of willingness for travelers to use such services. The disconnect between DRS system designs and user preferences limits the application impacts of DRS in the real world. Therefore, this paper aims to design a new DRS trip/vehicle assignment strategy by considering the user preferences of choices under different levels of service. In this study, an agent-based simulation approach is used to model a fleet of shared vehicles that allows DRS. An optimization model is developed to match riders to vehicles while accounting for traveler delay and delay acceptance. Travelers are also dynamically issued predictive discounts, catered to their expected willingness to pay, to incentivize them to accept longer trip delays. Results show that the proposed approach can improve system efficiency by increasing average vehicle occupancy by up to 1.0 persons/trip and DRS acceptance by up to 38.9% depending on fleet size. Additionally, congestion is eased through the decrease of empty vehicle miles traveled by up to 7.1%.

Paul, Joseph↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Dispatching and Charging Management of an Autonomous Electric Vehicle Ride-Hailing Fleet

Electrification and autonomous driving are two important trends in transportation systems. The convergence of these two technologies will introduce opportunities to improve transportation systems' operation and energy efficiency. One potential application is the commercial ride-hailing fleet with autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs). In order to harvest promising benefits from introducing AEVs into ride-hailing fleets, some unavoidable challenges will need to be resolved to ensure the fleets operates functionally and efficiently. This paper discusses the challenges of dispatching AEVs and their interactions with charging infrastructure. An integrated decision making framework for dispatching and charging has been designed using a system optimization approach to study the AEVs' management within the period when they drop off passengers and pick up the next passengers. Its potential fleet-wide benefits have been illustrated by comparing operations under a heuristic approach. A simulation platform has been designed to test different decision making strategies for the ride-hailing AEV fleets operational performance. Using this platform, detailed case studies have been performed with different fleet sizes, dispatching strategies, and charging infrastructure network settings. Comprehensive analyses from various aspects have been conducted to understand the AEVs' fleet operation performance, (e.g., zero occupancy vehicle miles traveled, successfully served ratio of ride-hailing requests, fleet vehicle charging downtime, and charging infrastructure utilization). Results have provided a deep understandings on operation's dynamics under various fleet system configurations and also have demonstrated advantages of the optimization-based approach for the AEV fleet management. Studies in this paper inform better designs on the future of sophisticated management strategies and charging infrastructure to support ride-hailing AEV fleet operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Depot Charging Schedule Optimization for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Battery-Electric Trucks

Charge management, which lowers charging costs for fleets and prevents straining the electrical grid, is critical to the successful deployment of medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric trucks (MHD BETs). This study introduces an energy demand and cost management framework that optimizes depot charging for MHD BETs by combining an energy consumption machine learning model and a linear program optimization model. The framework considers key factors impacting real-world MHD BET operations, including vehicle and charger configurations, duty cycles, use cases, geographic and climate conditions, operation schedules, and utilities’ time-of-use (TOU) rates and demand charges. The framework was applied to a hypothetical fleet of 100 MHD BETs in California under three different utilities for 365 days, with results compared to unmanaged charging. The optimized charging solution avoided more than 90% of on-peak charging, reduced fleet charging peak load by 64–75%, and lowered fleet energy variable costs by 54–64%. This study concluded that the proposed charge management framework significantly reduces energy costs and peak loads for MHD BET fleets while making recommendations for fleet electrification infrastructure planning and the design of utility TOU rates and demand charges.

Song, Shuhan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wash Vehicle Fleet Sizing for Contingency Planning Against Dust Storms: Preprint

Wash vehicles containing either high- or low-pressure water sprayers, a collection of rotating brushes, or a combination of these, are frequently utilized in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to maintain a high level of optical efficiency in the solar field. In recent years, multiple modeling approaches have been developed to obtain fleet sizes and mirror-washing schedules that optimize the tradeoff of vehicle capital and use costs and labor versus lost revenues due to soiling. These planning models cover normal operating conditions well but do not consider rare events such as dust storms which can a significant reduction in receiver productivity, or shut down operations until most or all of the solar field’s mirrors have been cleaned. To that end, we propose a methodology that evaluates whether additional capital should be deployed to hedge against these events by weighing the net present value of the expected benefits against the capital costs. The output of this method is a breakeven frequency, a metric we sue to determine whether an additional vehicle should be purchased to address the contingency of dust storms by comparing it to the expected annual storm frequency We develop a small collection of case studies using commercial-scale CSP tower plants and obtain breakeven frequencies that mostly fall between 0.1 and 1.0 storms per year, depending on the existing fleet size and storm severity.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wash Vehicle Fleet Sizing for Contingency Planning Against Dust Storms

Wash vehicles containing either high- or low-pressure water sprayers, a collection of rotating brushes, or a combination of these, are frequently utilized in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to maintain a high level of optical efficiency in the solar field. In recent years, multiple modeling approaches have been developed to obtain fleet sizes and mirror-washing schedules that optimize the tradeoff of vehicle capital and use costs and labor versus lost revenues due to soiling. These planning models cover normal operating conditions well but do not consider rare events such as dust storms which can cause a significant reduction in receiver productivity, or shut down operations until most or all of the solar field's mirrors have been cleaned. To that end, we propose a methodology that evaluates whether additional capital should be deployed to hedge against these events by weighing the net present value of the expected benefits against the capital costs. The output of this method is a breakeven frequency, a metric we sue to determine whether an additional vehicle should be purchased to address the contingency of dust storms by comparing it to the expected annual storm frequency We develop a small collection of case studies using commercial-scale CSP tower plants and obtain breakeven frequencies that mostly fall between 0.1 and 1.0 storms per year, depending on the existing fleet size and storm severity.

concentrating solar power↗

DOE OSTI2020

Athena - Shuttle Bus Optimization and Event Driven Simulator [SWR 20-105]

The primary purpose of the software is to optimize shuttle routes to and from terminals, given some airport campus location like the rental car center. This code was developed as part of the DOE funded Athena project. One aspect of the Athena project was to investigate if the optimization of shuttle routes that move passengers to and from the five DFW terminals and the rental car center could result in lower energy consumption from the shuttle fleet while still maintaining an acceptable level of service to passengers. Hence, the optimization done by the code determines a set of shuttle routes, the type of shuttle on each route, and the number of shuttles servicing each route. The optimization aims to make these choices in a way that the energy consumption per hour by the fleet is minimized. Additionally, the software can fast simulate airport shuttle operations with collected data. The simulation inputs are passenger arrival rates, shuttle routes and frequencies, and simulation configurations. The outputs include: time dependent shuttle energy level, time dependent charging station usage, time dependent number of passengers on each bus, time dependent number of passengers at each bus stop, history of number of passengers left at each bus stop, route history of fleet shuttle buses and on-demand buses, and time dependent bus distance traveled.

Kelly, Kenneth↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Rural Road Centerline Detection and Extraction from Aerial Images for a Forest Fire Decision Support System

To effectively manage the terrestrial firefighting fleet in a forest fire scenario, namely, to optimize its displacement in the field, it is crucial to have a well-structured and accurate mapping of rural roads. The landscape’s complexity, mainly due to severe shadows cast by the wild vegetation and trees, makes it challenging to extract rural roads based on processing aerial or satellite images, leading to heterogeneous results. This article proposes a method to improve the automatic detection of rural roads and the extraction of their centerlines from aerial images. This method has two main stages: (i) the use of a deep learning model (DeepLabV3+) for predicting rural road segments; (ii) an optimization strategy to improve the connections between predicted rural road segments, followed by a morphological approach to extract the rural road centerlines using thinning algorithms, such as those proposed by Zhang–Suen and Guo–Hall. After completing these two stages, the proposed method automatically detected and extracted rural road centerlines from complex rural environments. This is useful for developing real-time mapping applications.

Lourenço, Miguel (ORCID:0000000157673394)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Delivery-Risk-Aware Flexibility Scheduling and Dispatch for Aggregated Flexible Loads

Flexible loads like smart thermostats and water heaters can shift energy consumption and provide flexibility to the grid. However, this flexibility is dependent on occupant behavior and can lead to delivery risk, which causes utilities and grid operations to consider them as unreliable for purposes of grid operation. To date, they have not been well integrated into wholesale electricity markets or ancillary service offerings. With proper consideration of uncertainty and risk, these resources can be one of the most cost-effective sources of flexibility. This work uses stochastic optimization to quantify and bid flexibility from a fleet of flexible resources while considering their delivery risk.

DER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Site Controllers for Electrification of Commercial Fleet Vehicles

Electrification of transportation fleets presents a significant challenge for commercial customers. These challenges can be specific to region, weather, operating schedule, charging infrastructure, and other factors. This paper presents the value of integrating a site controller to monitor the health of assets and co-optimize the operation of commercial sites with multiple distributed energy resource technologies and electric vehicle fleets. The tests demonstrate smart-charging and vehicle-to-building uses compared to business-as-usual cases. The secondary objectives of power management for the customer vehicle are optimized by a planning tool (REopt) and integrated using the site controller. Any deviations from the planned dispatch are addressed by the real-time controllers offering tertiary controls, such as energy management, and limiting the reverse power flow (back into the grid). The results indicate that site controllers offer an efficient solution to manage the health of the connected assets and a scalable means to optimize the operations of a commercial customer with electrified transportation fleets.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vehicle Automation Benefits and Challenges for Passenger Transport System Beyond Automated Driving

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has been researching the implementation of fully automated passenger transport systems to be operated within dense urban settings, referred to as Automated Mobility Districts, based on roadway vehicle automation as opposed to track or train-based automation. This research, now in its third phase, is presently addressing the full spectrum of benefits and challenges of full automation of passenger transport systems with respect to fleet electrification and the associated multimodal, large fleet operational management, benefits beyond simply automating the driving tasks. The focal points summarized in the paper and presentation address the benefit-analysis of fleet automation to address added complexities imposed on the multi-fleet operational management when there is a simultaneous implementation of an on-demand service mode that connects with and optimizes the effectiveness of legacy transit systems and new sub-regional autonomous vehicle fleets, with specific emphasis on enhanced ability to better meet peak ridership demand. The research also begins to address challenges in operations arising from lack of personnel present to handle unexpected customer and system needs. Combined, this research articulates vehicle automation benefits and challenges beyond simply automating the driving tasks, addressing additional operational benefits automation provides to address the added complexities imposed by electrification and on-demand modes of operation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy and Emission Prediction for Mixed-Vehicle Transit Fleets Using Multi-task and Inductive Transfer Learning

Public transit agencies are focused on making their fixed-line bus systems more energy efficient by introducing electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) vehicles to their fleets. However, because of the high upfront cost of these vehicles, most agencies are tasked with managing a mixed-fleet of internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs), EVs, and HVs. In managing mixed-fleets, agencies require accurate predictions of energy use for optimizing the assignment of vehicles to transit routes, scheduling charging, and ensuring that emission standards are met. The current state-of-the-art is to develop separate neural network models to predict energy consumption for each vehicle class. Although different vehicle classes’ energy consumption depends on a varied set of covariates, we hypothesize that there are broader generalizable patterns that govern energy consumption and emissions. In this paper, we seek to extract these patterns to aid learning to address two problems faced by transit agencies. First, in the case of a transit agency which operates many ICEVs, HVs, and EVs, we use multi-task learning (MTL) to improve accuracy of forecasting energy consumption. Second, in the case where there is a significant variation in vehicles in each category, we use inductive transfer learning (ITL) to improve predictive accuracy for vehicle class models with insufficient data. As this work is to be deployed by our partner agency, we also provide an online pipeline for joining the various sensor streams for fixed-line transit energy prediction. Here, we find that our approach outperforms vehicle-specific baselines in both the MTL and ITL settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-stage charging and discharging of electric vehicle fleets

Fleets of electric vehicles will likely shift electricity demand, and the effect of upstream charging emissions will come from generation sources that are dispatched in response. This study proposes a multi-stage charging and discharging problem to translate low-cost energy transactions into vehicle dispatch decisions. A day-ahead charging optimization problem minimizes electricity purchases and marginal emissions damages, with energy transactions becoming targets in an optimization-based dispatch strategy for an on-demand shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) fleet. The framework was tested for Austin, Texas, using an agent-based simulator. Fleets can schedule charging to lower daily power costs (averaging 15.5% or $\$0.79$/day/SAEV) while reducing health damages from generation-related pollution (2.8% or $\$0.43$/day/SAEV). Finally, fleet managers can increase profits ($\$8$ per SAEV per day) by adopting a multi-stage charging and discharging strategy that can serve more passengers per day than price-agnostic dispatch strategies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Commercialization of an IDAES-Based Power Plant Performance Monitoring and Optimization System

DOE and NETL have created an advanced, open-source computational platform through the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES). The IDAES platform is a very extensive modeling environment that can be used for a broad range of power plant and process applications. MapEx Software is developing and commercializing a software application that makes it easier to set-up and run IDAES-based analyses. The MapEx-developed software application will replace the need for custom Python language coding with a user-friendly graphical user interface where the user can construct a flowsheet diagram of the IDAES model by inserting icons representing the plant equipment onto the screen. This application will make the implementation of modeling and optimization of existing fossil-fired power plants more straight-forward and less time-consuming. The effort focuses on performance monitoring and optimization of plant operations for the existing coal-fired power plant fleet but is built on a structure that allows expansion into the broad range of applications where IDAES methods may be applied.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗