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At least 73 records · Page 4

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

An overview of the fusion landscape

Fusion is very attractive as a potential energy source, but it is taking a long time to develop into a commercial reality. Given the challenges of climate change and the need for dispatchable power as a complement to renewable energy sources that vary on daily and seasonal timescales, there is great enthusiasm internationally to accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy. Forty-five private companies around the globe, with total financing of $7.1 billion, are engaged in the development of fusion energy. In the United States, the White House has put forward a “Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy,” with bipartisan support from Congress. To develop commercial fusion energy, certain goals must be met. In conclusion, a wide variety of approaches are being pursued to meet these goals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1

LinkML: an open data modeling framework

Background Scientific research relies on well-structured, standardized data; however, much of it is stored in formats such as free-text lab notebooks, nonstandardized spreadsheets, or data repositories. This lack of structure challenges interoperability, making data integration, validation, and reuse difficult. Findings LinkML (Linked Data Modeling Language) is an open framework that simplifies the process of authoring, validating, and sharing data. LinkML can describe a range of data structures, from flat, list-based models to complex, interrelated, and normalized models that utilize polymorphism and compound inheritance. It offers an approachable syntax that is not tied to any one technical architecture and can be integrated seamlessly with many existing frameworks. The LinkML syntax provides a standard way to describe schemas, classes, and relationships, allowing modelers to build well-defined, stable, and optionally ontology-aligned data structures. Once defined, LinkML schemas may be imported into other LinkML schemas. These key features make LinkML an accessible platform for interdisciplinary collaboration and a reliable way to define and share data semantics. Conclusions LinkML helps reduce heterogeneity, complexity, and the proliferation of single-use data models while simultaneously enabling compliance with FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data standards. LinkML has seen increasing adoption in various fields, including biology, chemistry, biomedicine, microbiome research, finance, electrical engineering, transportation, and commercial software development. In short, LinkML makes implicit models explicitly computable and allows data to be standardized at their origin. LinkML documentation and code are available at https://linkml.io/.

AI-ready data

Classical optimization with imaginary-time block encoding on quantum computers: The MaxCut problem

Optimization problems in finance, physics, and computer science are typically very hard to tackle in classical computing; quantum computing could help speed up computations and provide efficient methods for tackling large problems. Typically, to treat a problem with a quantum computer, the optimal solution is cast as the ground state of a diagonal Hamiltonian. Here, we develop a method, called imaginary-time evolution block encoding (ITE-BE), based on a recent imaginary-time algorithm, which requires no variational parameter optimization, as all parameters can be derived analytically from the target Hamiltonian. We also demonstrate that our method can be successfully combined with other quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). For illustration, here we study the MaxCut problem. We find that the QAOA ansatz increases the postselection success of ITE-BE, and shallow QAOA circuits, when boosted with ITE-BE, achieve better performance than deeper QAOA circuits. For the special case of the transverse initial state, we adapt our block-encoding scheme to allow for a deterministic application of the first layer of the circuit.

Zhong, Dawei [University of Southern California, L

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse

Securing Federated Learning Against Active Reconstruction Attacks

Federated Learning (FL) has amassed notable attention for its ability to preserve user privacy while emphasizing the retainment of model training efficiency. Due to this potential, FL has been integrated in many domains, such as healthcare, finance, law, and industrial engineering, where data cannot be easily exchanged due to sensitive information and strict privacy laws. However, current research has indicated that FL protocols are easily compromised by active data reconstruction attacks employed by actively dishonest servers. The malicious modification of global model parameters allows an actively dishonest server to obtain a direct copy of users’ private data via gradient inversion. Here, this class of attacks is highly underexplored and continues to be a major challenge due to the intense threat model. In this paper, we propose OASIS as a scalable and modality-agnostic defense based on data augmentation that counteracts active data reconstruction attacks while preserving model performance. To generalize our defense, we uncover the intuition behind gradient inversion that enables these attacks and theoretically establish the conditions by which the defense can be considered robust regardless of attack design. From this, we formulate our defense with data augmentation that illustrates its ability to undermine the attack principle. We evaluate OASIS on five real-world datasets–two image-based (ImageNet and CIFAR100) and three text-based (Wikitext, Stack Overflow, and Shakespeare)–which span diverse uses cases such as vision tasks and language modeling. Comprehensive evaluations on these datasets exhibit the efficacy of OASIS and highlight its feasibility as a solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage

Capital Structure for Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Projects

This report provides updated generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) parameter estimates of assumptions that may be used to reflect the cost of financing hydrogen infrastructure deployment. The report also provides parameter estimation for more streamlined financial analysis frameworks such as discounted cash flow and annualized financial models. Parameter values are derived from industry feedback and are reflective of current macro-economic factors such as higher interest rates and higher risk profile of emerging hydrogen technologies, given a myriad of factors such as projects’ construction inexperience, capital costs, and rising inflation, among others.

08 HYDROGEN

Tools And Methods to Analyze Plant Outage Schedule and Assist Schedulers in Improving Outage Resilience

Refueling outages of nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considered one of the most critical phases throughout the plant lifetime. In such instances, tens of thousands of activities (e.g., maintenance, surveillance) are performed in a short amount of time (typically 2-3 weeks unless major backfitting or modernization projects are carried out) by a large number of crews (e.g., electricians, mechanics) that are hired as contractors. As a consequence, a plant outage can be expensive not only in terms of costs (e.g., contractor labor, material), but also in terms of loss generation since the plant is taken off the grid during the full outage duration (an indicative metric is about 1.2M$/day of loss of revenue). Thus, there is a continuous need to decrease the economic impact of outages on plant finances. This can be done by: decreasing the frequency of plant outages (e.g., from 18 to 24 months), reducing the time to complete the outage, and reducing the risk of outage delays. The Optimization of Outage Activities project under the Risk Informed Systems Analysis Pathway (RISA) sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program focuses on developing tools and methods to support NPPs with outage schedule optimization. The developed tools and methods are designed to analyze plant outage schedule with the goal of identify critical elements in the schedule that might pose a high risk of delays. These methods and tools can be considered resource-centric in the sense that they address outage challenges as a resource optimization problem. In this context, resources are either time and crews; outage delays occurs when either (or both) resources are insufficient to complete the set of tasks assigned at a specific time instant of the outage. This report provides details on how plant resources (time and crews) can be allocated in such a way that delays are minimized. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: the first one focuses on the time resource and how variability of the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays. The second one integrates available resources to assess when dailies activities should be performed such that the risk of outage delays are minimized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Developing a Robust Market for CHP: A Plan for Fostering Economic Development, Business Competitiveness and Resiliency in the Mid-Atlantic Region

The Department of Energy’s Mid Atlantic Combined Heat and Power Technical Assistance Partnership (MA CHP TAP) was established to develop public-private partnerships to advance the technology, policies, and programmatic support for combined heat and power (CHP), including its application in microgrids, heat to power and district energy. The MA CHP TAP’s work includes education and outreach as well as technical assistance to a variety of stakeholders including end-users (commercial, industrial, institutional and more), state decision makers, electric and gas utilities, trade associations and non-profit organizations. This assistance includes evaluating the economic, energy, reliability and environmental value of proposed systems. The MA CHP TAP represents the multi-state Mid- Atlantic region and is the CHP expert in the region who provides fact-based, un-biased information on CHP, including technologies, project development, project financing, local electric and natural gas utility interfaces, and related state best practice policies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS

MV Sea Change: Fuel Cell, Emissions, and Hydrogen Fueling Performance

The Sea Change Project, managed and financed by SWITCH Maritime, produced the first zero-emission 100% hydrogen fuel-cell powered commercial ferry in the world. The MV Sea Change is a 70-foot catamaran equipped with a 360-kW fuel cell powertrain and a 250-bar 246 kg capacity hydrogen storage system. The 75-passenger vessel began public passenger service in July 2024 as part of the San Francisco Bay Ferry system. Summarized here are aspects of the design of the vessel, its construction, and vessel bunkering with high-pressure hydrogen. Results from a fuel cell performance analysis are also presented, along with estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) and criterial pollutant emissions assuming different sourcings of hydrogen. Lessons learned from the project will be briefly reviewed.

08 HYDROGEN

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (2024): Description and User’s Manual

This is the user's manual for the 2024 version of the FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (CO2_T_COM). CO2_T_COM is an Excel-based tool that estimates revenues and capital, operating, and financing costs for transporting liquid phase CO 2 by pipeline. It is assumed that the CO 2 delivered to the pipeline meets pipeline specifications for purity. Costs are estimated for a single point-to-point pipeline, which may have pumps along the pipeline to boost the pressure. The model can be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=42e3c409-b88f-467f-bff0-fadb92a68676 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY