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At least 73 records · Page 4

High temporal frequency data from a four turbine, blade-resolved wind farm simulation with ExaWind

The data was generated with ExaWind (https://github.com/Exawind) which couples AMR-Wind (https://github.com/Exawind/amr-wind/), Nalu-Wind (https://github.com/Exawind/nalu-wind), TIOGA (https://github.com/Exawind/tioga), and OpenFAST (https://github.com/OpenFAST/openfast). This is a large-scale simulation of a blade-resolved wind farm using the ExaWind software stack. ExaWind couples together a background flow solver, AMR-Wind, and a near-body solver, Nalu-Wind, through an overset technique from the TIOGA application. Another application, OpenFAST, handles the structural dynamics of the turbine blades and towers, which informs the fluid-structure interaction of the wind turbines with the flow solvers. This particular simulation includes four blade-resolved wind turbines operating in a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer. The AMR-Wind solver uses 500 million cells and is being solved on 256 AMD GPUs of the Oakridge Leadership Computing Facility Frontier supercomputer. Each turbine is assigned its own Nalu-Wind solver with over 13 million elements per turbine and solved using 448 CPU cores, for a total of 1792 CPU cores. For each node, 56 cores contain Nalu-Wind, while 8 cores correspond to AMR-Wind operations on the GPUs. Consequently, ExaWind is entirely utilizing the CPUs and the GPUs of the nodes concurrently. The data used in the visualization is full flow field data output from the simulation. It is lossy-compressed to a specific accuracy using ZFP and written to disk every 16 time-steps to enable real-time flow visualization. The flow fields are sampled at a high temporal frequency to enable real-time, 24fps visualization. The flow fields are sampled every 12 simulation time steps (every 0.04132s).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Digital image correlation and infrared thermography data for seven unique geometries of 304L stainless steel

Material Testing 2.0 (MT2.0) is a paradigm that advocates for the use of rich, full-field data, such as from digital image correlation and infrared thermography, for material identification. By employing heterogeneous, multi-axial data in conjunction with sophisticated inverse calibration techniques such as finite element model updating and the virtual fields method, MT2.0 aims to reduce the number of specimens needed for material identification and to increase confidence in the calibration results. To support continued development, improvement, and validation of such inverse methods—specifically for rate-dependent, temperature-dependent, and anisotropic metal plasticity models—we provide here a thorough experimental data set for 304L stainless steel sheet metal. The data set includes full-field displacement, strain, and temperature data for seven unique specimen geometries tested at different strain rates and in different material orientations. Commensurate extensometer strain data from tensile dog bones is provided as well for comparison. We believe this complete data set will be a valuable contribution to the experimental and computational mechanics communities, supporting continued advances in material identification methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of Strain and Strain Rate on Dynamic Grain Growth and Subgrain Evolution During Plastic Deformation of an Interstitial-Free Steel at 850 ° C

Here, the effects of strain and strain rate on dynamic grain growth (DGG) and subgrain evolution are reported for an interstitial-free steel deformed at 850 ° C. Microstructures produced during tension tests at true-strain rates of 10 -4 and to 10 -3 s -1 true strains ranging from 0.02 to 0.2 were preserved following deformation. These were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), including the application of spherical harmonic transform indexing to produce high-angular-resolution EBSD (HR-EBSD) data. HR-EBSD data resolved the small misorientation angles of subgrain boundaries while imaging much larger data fields than possible with previously available techniques. The resulting data confirmed that steady-state flow stress is inversely proportional to the average subgrain size and that subgrain boundary misorientation angle increases with strain. The following new observations are reported. The rate of DGG increased with respect to time but decreased with respect to strain as strain rate increased. This behavior is rationalized through a simple model using separate rate parameters for the effects of time and strain. Subgrain size was not constant during steady-state deformation, but decreased slowly with increasing strain. Subgrain size distributions and subgrain boundary misorientation angle distributions were measured, and both remained approximately log-normal during steady-state deformation. Subgrain evolution demonstrated no dependence on parent grain size, crystallographic orientation, or Taylor factor. These new data suggest that steady-state flow stress is more likely controlled by the dislocation density internal to subgrains than by the spacing between subgrain boundaries.

dynamic grain growth↗

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Mössbauer Spectroscopy Investigation of Nickel‐Zinc Ferrites Synthesized by a Self‐Combustion Method for Soft Magnetic Core Applications

Soft ferrites are materials of interest for magnetic cores, as used for wireless charging transformers. Their low permeabilities, high resistivity, and magnetic polarization make them interesting for high-power electric vehicle charging and drive systems. The nickel-zinc-doped ferrites are of particular interest; however, the compositional space is quite large with respect to dopant concentrations, stoichiometric ratios and synthesis technique. Nickel-zinc spinel ferrites with varying nickel-zinc ratios prepared by a self-combustion reaction followed by heat treatment exhibit good crystallinity, and their low-temperature Mössbauer spectra show local magnetism and site occupation in agreement with materials prepared by solid-state reaction. Thus, the combustion synthesis method offers a facile tunability of compositions, which, combined with the possibility of rapid characterization of atomic-scale magnetism by Mössbauer spectroscopy, enables advances in the compositional and processing space at a fast pace. Low-temperature Mössbauer spectroscopy data for samples with increasing nickel content reveals a systematic increase in average hyperfine field (2.8 T/Ni) and decrease in average isomer shift (−0.036 mm/s/Ni) that can determine the nickel/zinc content, even in the absence of applied magnetic field data. Furthermore, a gradual evolution of color is also observed with increasing nickel content, albeit trends in color depend on sintering conditions.

Mössbauer spectroscopy↗

Real-time reconstruction of ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes: A pilot study

This study presents a pilot investigation into a novel method for reconstructing real-time ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes (M < 4.5), removing the need for computationally expensive source characterization and simulation processes to assess ground shaking. Small magnitude earthquakes, which occur frequently and can be modeled as point sources, provide ideal conditions for evaluating real-time reconstruction methods. Utilizing sparse observation data, the method applies the Gappy Auto-Encoder (Gappy AE) algorithm for efficient field data reconstruction. This is the first study to apply the Gappy AE algorithm to earthquake ground motion reconstruction. Numerical experiments conducted with SW4 simulations demonstrate the method’s accuracy and speed across varying seismic scenarios. The reconstruction performance is further validated using real seismic data from the Berkeley area in California, USA, demonstrating the potential for practical application of real-time earthquake data reconstruction using Gappy AE. As a pilot investigation, it lays the groundwork for future applications to larger and more complex seismic events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗

Bifacial Vertical Testbed and Ground Irradiance Data in Golden, Colorado

This data was collected for Tonita et al., “Vertical bifacial photovoltaic system model validation: study with field data, various orientations, and latitudes,” for validation of optical models for vertically-oriented photovoltaics under high albedo. Ground irradiance data for vertical PV arrays modeling in agrivoltaics is also provided. The dataset is provided for further use or study as open source. For any questions on the dataset, email silvana.ovaitt@nlr.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Precision of ENDF and ENDL Formatted Data Files

The purpose is to ensure that today’s processing codes produced output to meet today’s accuracy needs. Since 1958 ENDL and about 1965 ENDF have each used a text format to define nuclear and atomic data in 11 columns for each data field. When these formats originated this was judged to be adequate to reproduce the accuracy of data at the time and to meet the needs of our applications. When these formats originated the dominant computer language of the day was FORTRAN and if written using an E11.4 format it would include only 4 or 5 digits of precision, e.g., 0.1234E-03 or 1.2345E-02, varying from one computer/system to another the result was not even unique. In the case of ENDF the 4 digit precision was not even adequate to uniquely define the atomic weight of the target, e.g., U238 = 92238 = 0.9224E+5 = WRONG! From its inceptions the ENDF format had a precision problem. One of my first tasks when in 1967 fresh out of graduate school I joined what later became the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC), was to address this precision problem. By working with ENDF producers and users throughout the U.S. we verified, 1) E or D is not required to define FORTRAN readable numbers, e.g., E+4 or +4 are both o.k. 2) With ENDF energy eV and cross section in barns, 2 digit exponents are almost never required. 3) Since energy is never negative we could use the first of the 11 columns for a digit. Knowing this allowed us to produce ENDF/B-II to 6 or 7 digit precision, e.g., blank, decimal point, 2 or 3 digit exponent, e.g., ^1.23456-12 or ^1.234567-3. Below is an example of the actual ENDF/B-II data released. Note, the date 1970 and the atomic weight, ZA, uniquely defined to 6-digit accuracy, ^9.22350+ 4.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Solar Panel Anti-Soiling Evaluation (CRADA Final Report)

NREL and Pellucere Technologies, Inc. will cooperate to leverage NREL’s existing testing and data analysis capability to evaluate solar panel anti-soiling coating in both laboratory testing conditions and from actual solar array field data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Combining organic amendments with enhanced rock weathering shifts soil carbon storage in croplands

Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) involves applying crushed silicate minerals to cropland soils to remove carbon dioxide and stabilize the global climate. If practiced widely, ERW has the potential to mitigate climate change and improve soil health and crop productivity. However, most ERW studies emphasize inorganic carbon (IC) chemistry, using model-based estimates and short-term mesocosms. Limited field data exist on how ERW interacts with organic amendments to affect organic carbon (C) cycling in soils. In a three-year field study in conventionally managed, irrigated maize fields, we monitored how key soil variables responded to crushed rock-alone, and in combination with compost and/or biochar. We measured weathering indicators (pH, major cations, and IC contents) and organic fractions, including particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), microbial biomass C, and water-extractable organic C. Rock-alone treatments increased weathering proxies (pH and IC) and showed an increasing trend in POM and MAOM, relative to control. In contrast, combining crushed rock with organic amendments resulted in lower soil organic C and nitrogen (N) concentrations (in both POM and MAOM) compared to organic amendments alone, though IC increased in the rock+compost treatment. Combining rock with both compost and biochar (compost/biochar) significantly lowered MAOM-N compared to compost/biochar alone. Overall, co-applying rock with organic inputs may promote weathering and C accrual but slow the accrual rate of organic C and N relative to organic amendments alone. Quantifying these trade-offs over multiple years and scales is critical to integrating ERW with existing soil health practices and climate mitigation strategies.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Queued Up: 2025 Edition – Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2024 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with interconnection.fyi, Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 49 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~97% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity. The dataset includes requests submitted to queues through the end of 2024, and only includes requests seeking to connect to the transmission grid (not distribution-connected or behind-the-meter projects). The files below include both a PDF report and an Excel data file. The PDF report analyzes interconnection data and metrics through the end of 2024. The Excel data file includes (a) the full project-level interconnection queue dataset through 2024, (b) a codebook (data dictionary) describing each data field, and (c) 35 additional tabs featuring tables summarizing a range of interconnection metrics. Key highlights from the Queued Up: 2025 Edition (featuring data through 2024) include: • As of the end of 2024, there were ~10,300 projects actively seeking grid interconnection in the U.S., representing 1,400 GW of generation and approximately 890 GW of storage. • Historic withdrawal rates alongside relatively fewer new requests resulted in a 12% decrease in total active queue volume compared to the prior year. • Active natural gas capacity (136 GW, +72% year-over-year) increased in 2024, while solar (956 GW, -12%), storage (890 GW, -13%), and wind (271 GW, -26%) capacity decreased. • 408 GW of capacity already has a draft or executed interconnection agreement (IA) but has not yet reached commercial operations. • The time projects spend in queues before reaching COD is increasing. For the regions with available data, the median duration from IR to COD has doubled from <2 years for projects built in 2000-2007 to over 4 years for those built in 2018-2024. • Ultimately, most of this proposed capacity will not be built. Only 13% of capacity that submitted interconnection requests from 2000-2019 had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024; 77% of that capacity had been withdrawn and 10% was still active. • FERC Order 2023 and various other reforms are being implemented. These are important measures to reduce interconnection bottlenecks and enhance grid system reliability, but it is too early to measure and assess their full impact. • New additions for the 2025 edition include: (a) additional detail on data processing and gaps; (b) updates on interconnection reforms; (c) new analysis on interconnection agreements, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance

Abstract. Unambiguous identification of past episodes of ice sheet thinning below the modern surface and grounding line retreat inboard of present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Such efforts are needed to understand the significance and potential future reversibility of ongoing and projected change in Antarctica. Here we evaluate the suitability for subglacial bedrock drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, which are located in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. We use an ice sheet model and field data – geological observations, glaciological observations and bedrock samples from nunataks, and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges – to rate each site against four key criteria: (i) presence of ridges extending below the ice sheet, (ii) likelihood of increased exposure of those ridges if the grounding line was inboard of present, (iii) suitability of bedrock for drilling and geochemical analysis, and (iv) accessibility for aircraft and drilling operations. Our results demonstrate that although no site in the Hudson Mountains is perfect for this study when assessed against all criteria, the accessibility, N–S orientation and basaltic bedrock lithology of Winkie Nunatak's southernmost ridge (74.86° S, 99.77° W) make it a feasible site both for drilling and subsequent cosmogenic nuclide analysis. Furthermore, the ridge is strewn with glacial erratics at all elevations, providing valuable constraints on its early Holocene deglacial history. Based on our experiences during this study, we conclude with a series of recommendations for assessing site suitability for future bedrock drilling campaigns. We emphasise the importance of consulting a range of expertise prior to drilling and ensuring that sufficient field reconnaissance is undertaken (including obtaining detailed grids of radar survey data and bedrock samples).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fault Dataset Development for VAV Terminal Units: Damper and Airflow Sensor Faults

This report analyzes field data to understand the impact of faults in variable air volume (VAV) terminal units on building indoor conditions and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system operations. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) team conducted field tests at the commercial building test facility known as ORNL’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP) building. Two specific faults-damper malfunctions and airflow sensor inaccuracies- were implemented, as these are common faults in VAV terminal units and can significantly impact HVAC system performance by increasing energy consumption, causing occupant discomfort, and raising operational costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO↗