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Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Hydraulic and Thermal Stimulation Program at Raft River Idaho, A DOE EGS

A Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) stimulation program has injected over 254 million gallons of water into the well RRG-9 ST1 since the summer of 2013. Three major stimulations have been conducted during the program increasing injection flow rates from less than 20 gpm to 550 gpm. Geologic, water chemistry, microseismic activity, and borehole imaging data have been used to develop a conceptual model describing possible flow paths of this injected water. This model contains two major fracture zones one of which intersects the RRG-9 ST1 wellbore. Modified Hall and injectivity index plots constructed using injection flow rates, surface temperatures, and wellhead pressures show steady improvement in the injectivity of the well. Here, the injectivity index has risen from 0.15 gpm/psi to 2.0 gpm/ psi. A pressure falloff test conducted on April 28, 2015 indicates a reservoir permeability of 1,220 md and -5.38 skin factor. The well stimulation program was simulated numerically using an Idaho National Laboratory reservoir simulation code, FALCON. These simulations show a significant increase in the permeability of connecting fracture pathways after each stimulation event.

Enhanced geothermal system↗

Investigating Performance of Geothermal Reservoirs With Bi-Directional Heat Transfer for Seasonal Thermal Storage Using Thermal-Hydraulic Reservoir Simulations

This paper presents initial simulation results of deep subsurface seasonal thermal storage of waste heat from a natural gas-fired power plant during the summer months for providing heating during winter months at the Cornell University main campus in Ithaca, New York. An injection temperature profile is calculated with the MEnU tool and numerical reservoir simulations are conducted with the simulator FALCON. Both a porous medium and large single fracture geothermal reservoir are considered at about 3 km depth with initial reservoir temperature of 75 degrees C. Simulations indicate that a much smaller reservoir - which is technically easier and less risky to develop - is sufficient when operating the reservoir for seasonal thermal storage instead of for continuous heat production. For example, storing 13 GWh of heat seasonally in a 100 m thick porous medium based on the Galway formation requires about 65 m of well spacing to limit the yearly variation in production temperature to 10 degrees C. Operating this reservoir for continuous heat production would require a well spacing of 365 m to limit the thermal decline to 10 degrees C after 10 years. Neglecting wellbore heat losses and assuming uniform and homogeneous properties, a round-trip thermal efficiency of 100% can be obtained if the yearly averaged injection temperature matches the initial reservoir temperature.

district heating↗

CACTUS: Chemistry Agent Connecting Tool Usage to Science

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential in various domains but often lack the ability to access and reason over domain-specific knowledge and tools. In this article, we introduce Chemistry Agent Connecting Tool-Usage to Science (CACTUS), an LLM-based agent that integrates existing cheminformatics tools to enable accurate and advanced reasoning and problem-solving in chemistry and molecular discovery. We evaluate the performance of CACTUS using a diverse set of open-source LLMs, including Gemma-7b, Falcon-7b, MPT-7b, Llama3-8b, and Mistral-7b, on a benchmark of thousands of chemistry questions. Our results demonstrate that CACTUS significantly outperforms baseline LLMs, with the Gemma-7b, Mistral-7b, and Llama3-8b models achieving the highest accuracy regardless of the prompting strategy used. Moreover, we explore the impact of domain-specific prompting and hardware configurations on model performance, highlighting the importance of prompt engineering and the potential for deploying smaller models on consumer-grade hardware without a significant loss in accuracy. By combining the cognitive capabilities of open-source LLMs with widely used domain-specific tools provided by RDKit, CACTUS can assist researchers in tasks such as molecular property prediction, similarity searching, and drug-likeness assessment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The NASA ACTIVATE Mission

The NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) conducted 162 joint flights with two aircraft over the northwest Atlantic to study aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic radiative forcing. The combination of a high-flying King Air and low-flying HU-25 Falcon, equipped with remote sensing and in situ instruments, characterized trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, and meteorological variables with data collected nearly simultaneously below, within, and above marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Flights spanning warm and cold seasons across 3 years (2020–22) provided a broad range of conditions associated with aerosol particles, cloud properties (including particle size and phase), and meteorology, ideally suited for robust ACI calculations and assessing how well models simulate a wide range of MBL clouds from stratiform to cumulus. ACTIVATE data suggest that drivers of cloud droplet number concentration N d , including aerosol particles and MBL dynamics, vary between winter and summer months with a stronger potential to convert aerosol particles into cloud droplets in winter. Models of varying complexity not only highlight some skills in simulating winter and summer cloud types but also identify challenges that still need to be addressed such as treatment of turbulence, wet scavenging, and mesoscale organization. Remote sensing advances range from new retrieval methods for N d , cloud phase classification, vertically resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, and ocean surface wind speed. This work describes these scientific and technological advances along with efforts in outreach and open data science.

aerosol indirect effect↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE Phase 3 Native State Model: 2022 Update

This is the Phase 3 native state model update. The Phase 3 numerical model represents a significant subsurface volume below the FORGE site footprint. The model domain of 4.0 km x 4.0 km x 4.2 km is located approximately between depths of 4000 to 4200 meters below land surface. This data archive consists of 10 files, 4 of which are simulation input files and the remaining 6 are simulation output files. There is an included readme.txt file that contains details on each of the data files. The input files include meshes, FALCON code inputs, tabulated data of water properties, temperature values, and model boundaries. The output files include simulation outfiles and point data of modeled material properties.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dataset for 'Ombadi, M. & Varadharajan, C. (2022). Urbanization and aridity mediate distinct salinity response to floods in rivers and streams across the Contiguous United States, Water Research'

This package contains data sets and code used to obtain the results in Ombadi, M., & Varadharajan, C. (2022). Urbanization and aridity mediate distinct salinity response to floods in rivers and streams across the Contiguous United States. Water Research, 118664. The folder "data" contains 259 .csv files, each of which has daily time series of concurrent streamflow (Q) and specific conductance (SC) for each of the sites used in this study originally downloaded from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS; USGS, 2016). The number of data points in each of the files is at least 3650 (i.e. 10 years of daily measurements). The folder "RF_single_data" contains 259 .csv files, each of which include data used to train and test the Random Forest models at individual sites for predicting SC during days of floods. The folder "RF_regional_data" contains 3 .csv files, each of which include scaled data compiled from all sites within each climate zone (arid, temperate and wet). "metadata.csv" contains the physical properties of the 259 catchments corresponding to the sites used in this study; this data was extracted from GAGES-II dataset (Falcone et al., 2010). "RF_implementation.ipynb" is a Jupyter notebook with the code needed to implement the analysis using Random Forest models either for individual sites or for the regional models (for each climate zone). The code utilizes the data in the two folders: "RF_single_data" and "RF_regional_data" and the metadata.csv file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Essence of Cryptol: A Denotational Cryptol Interpreter in Coq for Foundational Assurances for Quantum Resistant Cryptosystems

Systems of the utmost consequence need a means to establish authenticity of software and data. Cryptosystems implement authentication, but can be vulnerable to cryptographic and implementation attacks. With the threat of quantum cryptographic attacks, “post-quantum” cryptosystems (PQCs) must be henceforth used in these systems. However, the new cryptography needs new ways to, rigorously and machine-checkably, prove systems free of vulnerabilities. We propose a retargetable capability to rapidly instantiate proven correct postquantum cryptosystems through novel proof-carrying synthesis and proof-automation technique, extending those proven successful on existing systems. This capability is crucial to meeting the cryptographic requirements for future high-consequence systems. Since specifications for high consequence cryptography are presently captured in a domain specific language known as Cryptol. While this can enable convenient fully automated reasoning about Cryptol specificaitons and implementations via the Software Analysis Workbench (SAW), Cryptol has expressivity gaps, so that cryptosystems with probabilistic programming features like Falcon cannot be fully expressed in the language. Moreover, SAW’s automation fails for programs and specificaitons with inductive and recursive structure, as in the Sphincs+ PQC. Finally, Cryptol and SAW together represent some 200,000 lines of unverified Haskell, so that the any guarantees about high consequence cryptography are presently contingent on a large, unverified, yet trusted computing base. The first step of the larger project of agile, assured crpytography is therefore to provide a formal, mechanized semantics for Cryptol, so that the specifications expressed by cryptographers in Cryptol can be reasoned about and compiled into performant implementations with a foundational, machine checkable certificate of correctness. This report describes our work on this first step, culminating in the design of a certified denotational interpreter, in Coq, for core Cryptol.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Root image collection from a genotype by environment (GxE) root architecture study of the bioenergy species, Populus trichocarpa

Here we present a curated dataset; raw images of fresh roots collected from a genotype by environment (growth matrix) greenhouse root architecture study of the bioenergy species, Populus trichocarpa. Five separate experiments were performed to generate the dataset. Biological replicates (ramets, vegetative propagants) of Populus trichocarpa genotypes BESC 24 and BESC 375 were used for all experiments. The first two experiments were an eight-week and a six-week pot experiment where plants with grown in 4" X 14" sized pots were filled with Farfard 3B potting soil (Fafard Sungro #3B), and watered twice daily. Average greenhouse humidity and growth temperature were around 50-60% and 23°C, respectively. Ramets of P. trichocarpa genotypes BESC 24 and BESC 375 were used in various experiments. The source of this material was dormant field cuttings grown in greenhouse. The second experiment was a Microcosm root architecture experiment. This was done in a microcosm built with double-decker tissue culture Magenta box. Tissue culture plants with new root initials were transferred to microcosm with pro choice rapid dry growth matrix with 1x Hoagland’s solution pH5.7 and grown for six weeks until harvest. Temperature was held at ~22°C. The closed container trapped moisture. The source material was tissue culture stock plants established from shoot tips of greenhouse stock plants (obtained from same set of dormant field cuttings as rest of the study). For the remaining two experiments, greenwood stem cuttings from greenhouse grown plants were grown in six-week rhizotron and two-week hydroponics experiments in the greenhouse. For rhizotron experiments, plants were grown in 2-D rhizotron with black panels on both sides (31cm H x 30cm L x 1.2cm W) and watered daily. For hydroponics experiment, plants were grown in a 15ml falcon tube with distilled water and covered in foil and shaken a few times a day. Greenhouse temperature was held at ~ 23°C and humidity was between 50-60%. Stems were cut off and the root system was separated, gently washed to rid of matrix, immersed in a water tray and scanned for obtaining raw root images reported here. All scans of roots floating in a water tray were performed using an Epson Perfection V850 Pro Photo Scanner. Additional meta data is embedded in the raw image files.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The remote measurement of trace atmospheric species by correlation interferometry. I - Carbon monoxide and methane

A correlation interferometer has been developed for the measurement of carbon monoxide and methane at 2.35 micrometers in the troposphere and in the stratosphere. This instrument has been tested in laboratory tests, solar-looking outdoor tests, and downward-looking airplane-based tests. The aircraft tests were flown on a Falcon fanjet provided by The Canada Centre for Remote Sensing over both polluted and unpolluted regions of North America. The results of these various tests are discussed. Based on the results obtained for carbon monoxide and methane, a study was undertaken to investigate the feasibility of measuring other atmospheric trace species by correlation interferometry. Results of the feasibility study for carbon dioxide, water vapor, ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and several hydrocarbons are presented.

Goldstein, H. W.↗

Plant cover, soil temperature, freeze, water stress, and evapotranspiration conditions

The author has identified the following significant results. HCMM day/night coverage 12 hours apart cannot be obtained at 26 deg N latitude; nor have any pairs 36 hours apart been obtained. A day-IR scene and a night scene for two different dates were analyzed. A profile across the test site for the same latitude shows that the two profiles are near mirror images of each other over land surfaces and that the temperature of two large water bodies, Falcon Reservoir and the Gulf of Mexico, are nearly identical on two dates. During the time interval between overpasses, the vegetative cover remained static due to winter dormancy. The data suggest that day/night temperature differences measured weeks apart may yield meaningful information about the contrast between daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures for a given site.

Wiegand, C. L.↗

Midair collisions - The accidents, the systems, and the Realpolitik

Two midair collisions occurring in 1978 are described, and the air traffic control system and procedures in use at the time, human factors implications and political consequences of the accidents are examined. The first collision occurred in Memphis and involved a Falcon jet and a Cessna 150 in a situation in which the controllers handling each aircraft were not aware of the presence of the other aircraft until it was too late. The second occurred in San Diego four months later, when a Boeing 727 on a visual approach struck a Cessna 172 from the rear. Following the San Diego collision there arose a great deal of investigative activity, resulting in suggestions for tighter control on visual flight rules aircraft and the expansion of positive control airspace. These issues then led to a political battle involving general aviation, the FAA and the Congress. It is argued, however, that the collisions were in fact system-induced errors resulting from an air traffic control system which emphasizes airspace allocation and politics rather than the various human factors problems facing pilots and controllers.

Wiener, E. L.↗

Icing tunnel tests of Electro-Impulse De-Icing of an engine inlet and high-speed wings

A brief review is given of four earlier tests in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel and of flight tests in NASA's Icing Research Aircraft and in a Cessna 206 airplane. Details are given of recent icing tunnel tests of thicker-skinned wings, a Gates Learjet, a composite leading edge, and a Boeing 767, and of a Falcon Fanjet engine inlet. These were tested at speeds from 87 to 220 knots, air temperatures from -2 to -15 C, LWC values of 0.6 to 2.4 grams/cu meter, and median droplet diameters from 12 to 20 microns. Energy requirements are reported, as well as conclusions from comparisons of several Electro-Impulse De-Icing coil system designs. Fundamental studies of the structural dynamics and ice shedding of a 12.7 cm (5 inch) diameter semicylinder are described. Some potential problem areas are discussed: fatigue of skin and coil mountings, system weight and cost, electro-magnetic interference and noise.

Zumwalt, G. W.↗

Electro-impulse de-icing of a turbofan engine inlet

The application of electromagnetic impulse deicing (EIDI) systems to turbofan engine inlets on business aircraft has been investigated experimentally. The tests were performed in the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA's Lewis Research Center. The deicing system testbed was a Falcon Fanjet 20 engine nacelle. The effectiveness of various deicing coil configurations and mount designs were compared, and design parameters were developed specifically for EIDI systems in turbofan engines. Flight tests were also carried out at altitudes in the range 3000-6000 ft corresponding to a temperature range of -3 to -8 C. It is shown that the ice particles removed from the engine inlet by the deicing system were small enough for the engine to ingest. Tentative design specifications are given with respect to the optimum coil configuration, and operating power of a EIDI production candidate.

Zumwalt, G. W.↗

Decomposition of CO2 molecules due to auroral X-rays

It has been reported by SEKIHARA (1981), that the circumpolar measurement from a commercial airliner reported by PRATT and FALCONER (1979) was subjected to a strong influence of a geomagnetic storm, specifically at the beginning stage through the North Pole. The main point of interest was the increase of CO concentration by the order of 10 ppb that took place simultaneously with a temperature decrease of several degrees, which was regarded as a result of enhanced cooling to space due to CO2 decomposition. Later inspection of the original magnetogram of eleven auroral zone stations revealed that the observation started 13 hours after the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, which lasted for 22 hours. A quantitative estimation is made of CO2 decomposition due to auroral X-rays that should take place during the degradation of photoelectrons injected into the lower stratospheres.

Sekihara, K.↗