Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “failure prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

A survey of strength analysis methods for laminates with holes

The methods for predicting the strength of composite laminates with fastener holes are reviewed for the cases of unloaded as well as loaded holes. Three categories of methods are discussed: (1) the hole-boundary stress (HBS) methods which compare the peak stresses and the laminate strength; (2) the linear elastic fracture (LEFM) methods which assume cracks emanating from the hole and predict failure when the stress intensity factor for a crack equals the laminate fracture toughness; and (3) two different two-parameter (TP) methods: the average-stress (ASTP) method, which predicts failure when the average stress over a distance from the hole equals the laminate strength; and the point-stress (PSTP) Whitney-Nuismer (1974) approach, which predicts failure when the stress near the hole equals the material strength. The PSTP is relatively accurate and is by far the most widely used of all the prediction methods. However, for large ranges of variables and cases, the current strength predictions may not always be accurate.

Crews, J. H., Jr.↗

Finite-element analysis of initiation, stable crack growth and instability using a crack-tip-opening displacement criterion

An elastic-plastic (incremental and small strain) finite element analysis was used with a crack growth criterion to study crack initiation, stable crack growth, and instability under monotonic loading to failure of metallic materials. The crack growth criterion was a critical crack-tip-opening displacement (CTOD) at a specified distance from the crack tip, or equivalently, a critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA). Whenever the CTOD (or CTOA) equaled or exceeded a critical value, the crack was assumed to grow. Single values of critical CTOD were used in the analysis to model crack initiation, stable crack growth, and instability for 7075-T651 and 2024-T351 aluminum alloy compact specimens. Calculated and experimentally measured CTOD values at initiation agreed well for both aluminum alloys. These critical CTOD values were also used to predict failure loads on center-crack tension specimens and a specially-designed three-hole-crack tension specimen made of the two aluminum alloys and of 304 stainless steel. All specimens were 12.7 mm thick. Predicted failure loads for 7075-T651 aluminum alloy and 304 stainless steel specimens were generally within + or - 15 percent of experimental failure loads, whereas the predicted failure loads for 2024-T351 aluminum alloy specimens were generally within + or - 5 percent of the experimental loads.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

The Effect of Delamination on Damage Path and Failure Load Prediction for Notched Composite Laminates

The influence of delamination on the progressing damage path and initial failure load in composite laminates is investigated. Results are presented from a numerical and an experimental study of center-notched tensile-loaded coupons. The numerical study includes two approaches. The first approach considers only intralaminar (fiber breakage and matrix cracking) damage modes in calculating the progression of the damage path. In the second approach, the model is extended to consider the effect of interlaminar (delamination) damage modes in addition to the intralaminar damage modes. The intralaminar damage is modeled using progressive damage analysis (PDA) methodology implemented with the VUMAT subroutine in the ABAQUS finite element code. The interlaminar damage mode has been simulated using cohesive elements in ABAQUS. In the experimental study, 2-3 specimens each of two different stacking sequences of center-notched laminates are tensile loaded. The numerical results from the two different modeling approaches are compared with each other and the experimentally observed results for both laminate types. The comparisons reveal that the second modeling approach, where the delamination damage mode is included together with the intralaminar damage modes, better simulates the experimentally observed damage modes and damage paths, which were characterized by splitting failures perpendicular to the notch tips in one or more layers. Additionally, the inclusion of the delamination mode resulted in a better prediction of the loads at which the failure took place, which were higher than those predicted by the first modeling approach which did not include delaminations.

Satyanarayana, Arunkumar↗

Evaluation of the Tensor Polynomial and Hoffman strength theories for composite materials

The Hoffman theory and the Tensor Polynomial (Tsai-Wu) theory with the stress interaction term set equal to zero have been found to be preferred alternatives to the general Tensor Polynomial theory for predicting strength of filamentary composite laminae. These theories were used to predict failure of off-axis boron/epoxy and E-glass/epoxy test specimens and gave excellent agreement with available experimental results. A numerical experiment was also performed to estimate the errors for ten different composite systems under six different loadings. The maximum error in predicted failure loads among all cases was below 10 percent. These results suggest that the Hoffman failure theory and the Tensor Polynomial theory with the stress interaction term equal to zero can predict failure of practical filamentary composite materials under general biaxial loading with sufficient accuracy for engineering applications.

Narayanaswami, R.↗

Direct modeling parameter signature analysis and failure mode prediction of physical systems using hybrid computer optimization

High speed automated identification and design of dynamic systems, both linear and nonlinear, are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on developing hardware and techniques which are applicable to practical problems. The basic modeling experiment and new results are described. Using the improvements developed successful identification of several systems, including a physical example as well as simulated systems, was obtained. The advantages of parameter signature analysis over signal signature analysis in go-no go testing of operational systems were demonstrated. The feasibility of using these ideas in failure mode prediction in operating systems was also investigated. An improved digital controlled nonlinear function generator was developed, de-bugged, and completely documented.

Drake, R. L.↗

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tension fracture of laminates for transport fuselage. Part 2: Large notches

Tests were conducted on over 200 center-crack specimens to evaluate: (a) the tension-fracture performance of candidate materials and laminates for commercial fuselage applications; and (b) the accuracy of several failure criteria in predicting response. Crack lengths of up to 12 inches were considered. Other variables included fiber/matrix combination, layup, lamination manufacturing process, and intraply hybridization. Laminates fabricated using the automated tow-placement process provided significantly higher tension-fracture strengths than nominally identical tape laminates. This confirmed earlier findings for other layups, and possibly relates to a reduced stress concentration resulting from a larger scale of repeatable material inhomogeneity in the tow-placed laminates. Changes in material and layup result in a trade-off between small-notch and large-notch strengths. Toughened resins and 0 deg-dominate layups result in higher small-notch strengths but lower large-notch strengths than brittle resins, 90 deg and 45 deg dominated layups, and intraply S2-glass hybrid material forms. Test results indicate that strength-prediction methods that allow for a reduced order singularity of the crack-tip stress field are more successful at predicting failure over a range of notch sizes than those relying on the classical square-root singularity. The order of singularity required to accurately predict large-notch strength from small-notch data was affected by both material and layup. Measured crack-tip strain distributions were generally higher than those predicted using classical methods. Traditional methods of correcting for finite specimen width were found to be lacking, confirming earlier findings with other specimen geometries. Fracture tests of two stiffened panels, identical except for differing materials, with severed central stiffeners resulted in nearly identical damage progression and failure sequences. Strain-softening laws implemented within finite element models appear attractive to account for load redistribution in configured structure due to damage-induced crack tip softening

Walker, Tom H.↗

Anomaly Detection in Accelerator Facilities Using Machine Learning

Synchrotron light sources are user facilities and usually run about 5000 hours per year to support many beamlines operations in parallel. Reliability is a key parameter to evaluate machine performance. Even many facilities have achieved >95% beam reliability, there are still many hours of unscheduled downtime and every hour lost is a waste of operation costs along with a big impact on individual scheduled user experiments. Preventive maintenance on subsystems and quick recovery from machine trips are the basic strategies to achieve high reliability, which heavily depends on experts’ dedication. Recently, SLAC, APS, and NSLS-II collaborated to develop machine-learning-based approaches aiming to solve both situations, hardware failure prediction and machine failure diagnosis to find the root sources. In this paper, we report our facility operation status, development progress, and plans.

Accelerator Physics↗

Analysis of the shearout failure mode in composite bolted joints

A semi-empirical shearout strength model has been formulated for the analysis of composite bolted joints with allowance for the effects of joint geometry. The model employs a polynomial stress function in conjunction with a point stress failure criterion to predict strength as a function of fastener size, edge distance, and half spacing. The stress function is obtained by two-dimensional plane-stress finite element analysis using quadrilateral elements with orthotropic material properties. Comparison of experimentally determined shearout strength data with model predicted failures has substantiated the accuracy of the model.

Wilson, D. W.↗

Latest Development in Advanced Sensors at Kennedy Space Center (KSC)

Inexpensive space transportation system must be developed in order to make spaceflight more affordable. To achieve this goal, there is a need to develop inexpensive smart sensors to allow autonomous checking of the health of the vehicle and associated ground support equipment, warn technicians or operators of an impending problem and facilitate rapid vehicle pre-launch operations. The Transducers and Data Acquisition group at Kennedy Space Center has initiated an effort to study, research, develop and prototype inexpensive smart sensors to accomplish these goals. Several technological challenges are being investigated and integrated in this project multi-discipline sensors; self-calibration, health self-diagnosis capabilities embedded in sensors; advanced data acquisition systems with failure prediction algorithms and failure correction (self-healing) capabilities.

Perotti, Jose M.↗

Experiments and modelling of adhesive failure initiation of an epoxy underfill: a study of electronic packaging survivability

Epoxy underfills can be implemented in electronic packaging to enhance solder joint reliability of surface mounted components. However, it is important for an engineer to have a failure criterion that can be used for failure predictions and redesign of electronic assemblies. For this study, data from epoxy bond failure in mock electronic part assemblies were correlated to finite element analyses to predict adhesive failure initiation. Experiments were performed to determine failure loads for various loading locations and nonlinear viscoelastic analyses were performed for the same loading locations to determine a maximum principal strain failure parameter. Predictions showed that a maximum principal strain failure parameter defined from one test could be used as an indicator of adhesive failure of an epoxy bond undergoing other modes of loading. Failure initiation predictions matched experimental data using a maximum principal strain failure parameter for an epoxy bond undergoing mixed modes of loading for both unfilled and alumina oxide filled 828DEA epoxy. Such experimental setup is deemed appropriate for future epoxy testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗

Analysis and Test Correlation of Proof of Concept Box for Blended Wing Body-Low Speed Vehicle

The Low Speed Vehicle (LSV) is a 14.2% scale remotely piloted vehicle of the revolutionary Blended Wing Body concept. The design of the LSV includes an all composite airframe. Due to internal manufacturing capability restrictions, room temperature layups were necessary. An extensive materials testing and manufacturing process development effort was underwent to establish a process that would achieve the high modulus/low weight properties required to meet the design requirements. The analysis process involved a loads development effort that incorporated aero loads to determine internal forces that could be applied to a traditional FEM of the vehicle and to conduct detailed component analyses. A new tool, Hypersizer, was added to the design process to address various composite failure modes and to optimize the skin panel thickness of the upper and lower skins for the vehicle. The analysis required an iterative approach as material properties were continually changing. As a part of the material characterization effort, test articles, including a proof of concept wing box and a full-scale wing, were fabricated. The proof of concept box was fabricated based on very preliminary material studies and tested in bending, torsion, and shear. The box was then tested to failure under shear. The proof of concept box was also analyzed using Nastran and Hypersizer. The results of both analyses were scaled to determine the predicted failure load. The test results were compared to both the Nastran and Hypersizer analytical predictions. The actual failure occurred at 899 lbs. The failure was predicted at 1167 lbs based on the Nastran analysis. The Hypersizer analysis predicted a lower failure load of 960 lbs. The Nastran analysis alone was not sufficient to predict the failure load because it does not identify local composite failure modes. This analysis has traditionally been done using closed form solutions. Although Hypersizer is typically used as an optimizer for the design process, the failure prediction was used to help gain acceptance and confidence in this new tool. The correlated models and process were to be used to analyze the full BWB-LSV airframe design. The analysis and correlation with test results of the proof of concept box is presented here, including the comparison of the Nastran and Hypersizer results.

Spellman, Regina L.↗

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of a Hybrid Wing Body Center Section Test Article

The hybrid wing body center section test article is an all-composite structure made of crown, floor, keel, bulkhead, and rib panels utilizing the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) design concept. The primary goal of this test article is to prove that PRSEUS components are capable of carrying combined loads that are representative of a hybrid wing body pressure cabin design regime. This paper summarizes the analytical approach, analysis results, and failure predictions of the test article. A global finite element model of composite panels, metallic fittings, mechanical fasteners, and the Combined Loads Test System (COLTS) test fixture was used to conduct linear structural strength and stability analyses to validate the specimen under the most critical combination of bending and pressure loading conditions found in the hybrid wing body pressure cabin. Local detail analyses were also performed at locations with high stress concentrations, at Tee-cap noodle interfaces with surrounding laminates, and at fastener locations with high bearing/bypass loads. Failure predictions for different composite and metallic failure modes were made, and nonlinear analyses were also performed to study the structural response of the test article under combined bending and pressure loading. This large-scale specimen test will be conducted at the COLTS facility at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Wu, Hsi-Yung T.↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗