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DOE OSTI2024

Light rain exacerbates extreme humid heat

Abstract Humid heat waves pose significant risks to human health and the ecosystem. Intuitively, rainfall often alleviates extreme humid heat. However, here we show that light rain often accompanies extreme humid heat, exacerbating its frequency and intensity, especially over arid and semi-arid regions compared to no rain and moderate-to-heavy rain cases. This is because light rain does not dramatically reduce solar radiation but increases near-surface humidity through enhanced surface evaporation. The water replenishment from light rain as well as a shallower planetary boundary layer is crucial for consecutive extremes where there are commonly sporadic drizzle days amidst several rain-free days. These extremes last longer than rain-free extremes. Current global climate models (GCMs) overestimate light rain. After reducing this bias in a GCM, underestimations of humid heat waves in energy-limited regions and overestimations in water-limited regions are largely alleviated. These findings underscore the underappreciated impact of light rain on extreme humid heat.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Laser-plasma acceleration beyond wave breaking

Laser wakefield accelerators rely on the extremely high electric fields of nonlinear plasma waves to trap and accelerate electrons to relativistic energies over short distances. When driven strongly enough, plasma waves break, trapping a large population of the background electrons that support their motion. Aside from limiting the maximum electric field, this trapping can lead to accelerated electron bunches with large energy spreads. Here we introduce a novel regime of plasma wave excitation and wakefield acceleration that allows for arbitrarily high electric fields while avoiding the deleterious effects of unwanted trapping. Here, the regime, enabled by spatiotemporal shaping of laser pulses, exploits the property that nonlinear plasma waves with superluminal phase velocities cannot trap charged particles and are therefore immune to wave breaking.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Image Processing Techniques to Identify and Quantify Spatiotemporal Carbon Cycle Extremes

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities through fossil fuel emissions and land use changes have increased climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts that have led to and are expected to increase the occurrence of carbon cycle extremes. Carbon cycle extremes represent large anomalies in the carbon cycle that are associated with gains or losses in carbon uptake. Carbon cycle extremes could be continuous in space and time and cross political boundaries. Here, we present a methodology to identify large spatiotemporal extremes (STEs) in the terrestrial carbon cycle using image processing tools for feature detection. We characterized the STE events based on neighborhood structures that are three-dimensional adjacency matrices for the detection of spatiotemporal manifolds of carbon cycle extremes. We found that the area affected and carbon loss during negative carbon cycle extremes were consistent with continuous neighborhood structures. In the gross primary production data we used, 100 carbon cycle STEs accounted for more than 75% of all the negative carbon cycle extremes. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the magnitude of carbon cycle STEs and attribution of those STEs to climate drivers as a function of neighborhood structures for two observational datasets and an Earth system model simulation.

Sharma, Bharat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Force-free Wave Interaction in Magnetar Magnetospheres: Computational Modeling in Axisymmetry

Abstract Crustal quakes of highly magnetized neutron stars can disrupt their magnetospheres, triggering energetic phenomena like X-ray and fast radio bursts. Understanding plasma wave dynamics in these extreme environments is vital for predicting energy transport across scales to the radiation length. This study models relativistic plasma wave interaction in magnetar magnetospheres with force-free electrodynamics simulations. For propagation along curved magnetic field lines, we observe the continuous conversion of Alfvén waves to fast magnetosonic (FMS) waves. The conversion efficiency can be up to three times higher when counter-propagating Alfvén waves interact in the equatorial region. Alfvén waves generate FMS waves of twice their frequency during their first crossing of the magnetosphere. After the initial transient burst of FMS waves, Alfvén waves convert to FMS waves periodically, generating variations on timescales of the magnetospheric Alfvén wave crossing time. This decaying FMS wave tail carries a significant portion (half) of the total energy emitted. Plastic damping of “bouncing” Alfvén waves by the magnetar crust has minimal impact on the FMS efficiency. We discuss the implications of the identified wave phenomena for magnetar observations. Outgoing FMS waves can develop electric zones, potential sources of coherent radiation. Long wavelength FMS waves could generate FRBs through reconnection beyond the light cylinder.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

The use of soil moisture and Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR) anomalies for increased lead time of the development flash drought and heat waves

Drought and rapid intensification of drought (i.e., flash drought) can have significant impacts on the natural environment and the economy, particularly when coupled with a period(s) of extreme heat (Otkin et al., 2018). The development and/or intensification of drought falls squarely in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time frame, which dictates that drought development, intensification, and propagation could be an output of a subseasonal or seasonal forecast. Current S2S forecasts have poor skill for forecasting the development of extreme drought and heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America

Heat-dome-like stationary waves often lead to extreme heat events, such as the unprecedented heatwave in Northwestern North America during the summer of 2021. However, future changes in summer stationary waves over Northwestern North America and the underlying driving factors remain unclear. Here, we investigate the projected changes in the anticyclonic stationary wave circulation over Northwestern North America using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and diagnose the circulation changes using a stationary wave model. Our findings reveal a significant 95% increase in the summer stationary wave amplitude over Northwestern North America under the high-emission scenario in 2080–2099 relative to 1995–2014. The response is mainly driven by the diabatic heating changes over the tropical Pacific which induce a Rossby wave source in the northeastern tropical Pacific, and further supported by a northward expanded waveguide in North America, both enhancing wave activity flux into the Northwestern North America. The heat-dome-like stationary wave anomaly is expected to heighten the heatwave risk over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chronically underestimated: a reassessment of US heat waves using the extended heat index

Abstract The heat index, or apparent temperature, was never defined for extreme heat and humidity, leading to the widespread adoption of a polynomial extrapolation designed by the United States National Weather Service. Recently, however, the heat index has been extended to all combinations of temperature and humidity, presenting an opportunity to reassess past heat waves. Here, three-hourly temperature and humidity are used to evaluate the extended heat index over the contiguous United States during the years 1984–2020. It is found that the 99.9th percentile of the daily maximum heat index is highest over the Midwest. Identifying and ranking heat waves by the spatially integrated exceedance of that percentile, the Midwest once again stands out as home to the most extreme heat waves, including the top-ranked July 2011 and July 1995 heat waves. The extended heat index can also be used to evaluate the physiological stress induced by heat and humidity. It is found that the most extreme Midwest heat waves tax the cardiovascular system with a skin blood flow that is elevated severalfold, approaching the physiological limit. These effects are not captured by the National Weather Service’s polynomial extrapolation, which also underestimates the heat index by as much as 10 ∘ C (20 ∘ F) during severe heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Femtosecond laser produced periodic plasma in a colloidal crystal probed by XFEL radiation

With the rapid development of short-pulse intense laser sources, studies of matter under extreme irradiation conditions enter further unexplored regimes. In addition, an application of X-ray Free-Electron Lasers (XFELs) delivering intense femtosecond X-ray pulses, allows to investigate sample evolution in IR pump - X-ray probe experiments with an unprecedented time resolution. Here we present a detailed study of the periodic plasma created from the colloidal crystal. Both experimental data and theory modeling show that the periodicity in the sample survives to a large extent the extreme excitation and shock wave propagation inside the colloidal crystal. This feature enables probing the excited crystal, using the powerful Bragg peak analysis, in contrast to the conventional studies of dense plasma created from bulk samples for which probing with Bragg diffraction technique is not possible. X-ray diffraction measurements of excited colloidal crystals may then lead towards a better understanding of matter phase transitions under extreme irradiation conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. In this study, we provide the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gravitational self force from scattering amplitudes in curved space

Abstract We employ scattering amplitudes in curved space to model the dynamics of a light probe particle with massmorbiting in the background spacetime induced by a heavy gravitational source with massM. Observables are organized as an expansion inm/Mto all orders inG— the gravitational self-force expansion. An essential component of our analysis is the backreaction of the heavy source which we capture by including the associated light degrees of freedom. As illustration we consider a Schwarzschild background and verify geodesic motion as well as the first-order self-force correction to two-body scattering through$$\mathcal{O}$$(G 3 ). Amplitudes in curved space offer several advantages, and further developments along these lines may advance the computation of gravitational-wave signals for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electron irradiation reveals robust fully gapped superconductivity in LaNiGa 2

The effects of 2.5-MeV electron irradiation were studied in the superconducting phase of single crystals of LaNiGa 2 , using measurements of electrical transport and radio-frequency magnetic susceptibility. The London penetration depth is found to vary exponentially with temperature, suggesting a fully gapped Fermi surface. The inferred superfluid density is close to that of a single-gap weak-coupling isotropic s – wave superconductor. Superconductivity is extremely robust against nonmagnetic point-like disorder induced by electron irradiation. Our results place strong constraints on the previously proposed triplet pairing state by requiring fine-tuned impurity scattering amplitudes and are most naturally explained by a sign-preserving, weak-coupling, and approximately momentum-independent singlet superconducting state in LaNiGa 2 , which does not break time-reversal symmetry. Finally, we discuss how our findings could be reconciled with previous measurements that indicated magnetic signatures in the superconducting phase.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and TOPTICA Photonics, Inc.

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Toptica Photonics (Participant) will collaborate to demonstrate the application of a frequency-comb laser (dual-comb spectroscopy) in an optically accessible rotating detonation engine (RDE). RDEs are a next-generation energy conversion technology which are well-suited to hydrogen usage and have the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of gas turbine engine power cycles. However, critical information is needed about the high temperature and pressure detonation wave, which represents an extremely challenging diagnostic environment. Dual-comb spectroscopy can be used to characterize the pressure-broadened IR absorption features at MHz rates, providing information not possible with conventional tunable diode laser (TDL) technologies. This collaboration will, for the first time, demonstrate application of dual-comb spectroscopy within the combustion annulus of a hydrogen-air RDE. If successful, the data generated will help to accelerate commercialization of RDE technologies in support of decarbonizing our nation’s energy sector.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of simulated wave energy converter responses to focused waves

Focused waves are increasingly used as a design method to predict extreme loads for offshore structures, such as wave energy converters (WECs). However, the ability of computational methods to accurately simulate the prescribed focused waves and resulting wave structure interactions is not well validated. This study uses two computational fluid dynamic methods, WEC-Sim and STAR-CCM+, to evaluate the responses of two taut-moored WEC-like buoys to three different focused waves. WEC-Sim is a computationally efficient, mid-fidelity model, based on linearised potential flow theory. In contrast, STAR-CCM+ is a high-fidelity, three-dimensional, unsteady, Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes-based model. The two buoy geometries considered are a hemispherical-bottom cylinder and a truncated cylinder with a cylindrical moon pool. Three prescribed focused waves are generated in both codes, and the simulated displacements and mooring loads are obtained for each of the hydrodynamic bodies. The resulting STAR-CCM+ generated focused waves have approximately the same accuracy, in comparison with the analytic solution, as experimentally generated focused waves. The WEC-Sim simulated responses, when using viscous coefficients tuned to the measured displacements, are, on average, within 11.5% of experimentally measured values, whereas the STAR-CCM+ simulated responses are, on average, within 14.2% of the experimental values.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wave-packet manipulation of He Rydberg states by a seeded free-electron laser

We report a two-dimensional pump-control-probe spectroscopic study of the dynamics of singly excited He Rydberg-state wave packets with a seeded extreme ultraviolet (XUV) free-electron laser (FEL) source. A pair of coherent XUV pulses, defined by their coarse time separation and relative phase, created and manipulated the wave packets. The He atoms were postionized by infrared (IR) pulses, and the ion yield was measured as a function of XUV phase and IR arrival time. We tagged and sorted the relative phase of the XUV pulse pair on a single-shot basis by fitting each FEL spectrum with a suitable function that accounts for nonidealities of the XUV pulse pairs, associated with the seeding process; more generally, the fit returns the time-dependent electric field of the FEL spectra. The experimental two-dimensional maps of ion yields, measured as a function of IR (probe) delay and of XUV (pump-control) phase, were compared with the solution of the first-order time-dependent Schrödinger equation for this field. Despite the fact that the experimental conditions imply strong excitation, beyond the approximations of first-order perturbation theory, the simulated map satisfactorily reproduces the experimental one for temporally well-separated pulses. We show that by selecting data at appropriate values of pump-control phase, we enhance or suppress the amplitude of chosen wave-packet components consisting of two or more Rydberg states. When the temporal overlap of the pulse pair cannot be neglected, the phase reconstruction is underdetermined, and we provide a simplified comparison between data and simulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Dumergue, Mathieu (ORCID:0000000236984406)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing thermal resilience of an assisted living facility during heat waves and cold snaps with power outages

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Furthermore, major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗