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DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Downscaling of SoilMERGE in the United States Southern Great Plains

SoilMERGE (SMERGE) is a root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) product that covers the entire continental United States and spans 1978 to 2019. Machine learning techniques, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boost (GBoost) downscaled SMERGE to spatial resolutions straddling the field scale domain (100 to 3000 m). Study area was northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The coarse resolution of SMERGE (0.125 degree) limits this product’s utility. To validate downscaled results in situ data from four sources were used that included: United States Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observatory, United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN), and Soil moisture Sensing Controller and oPtimal Estimator (SoilSCAPE). In addition, RZSM retrievals from NASA’s Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Surface (AirMOSS) campaign provided a nearly spatially continuous comparison. Three periods were examined: era 1 (2016 to 2019), era 2 (2012 to 2015), and era 3 (2003 to 2007). During eras 1 and 2, RF outperformed XGBoost and GBoost, whereas during era 3 no model dominated. Performance was better during eras 1 and 2 as opposed to the pre-L band era 3. Improvements across all eras, regions, and models realized from downscaling included an increase in correlation from 0.03 to 0.42 and a decrease in ub RMSE from -0.0005 to -0.0118 m 3 /m 3 . This study demonstrates the feasibility of SMERGE downscaling opening the prospect for the development of a long-term RZSM dataset at a more desirable field-scale resolution with the potential to support diverse hydrometeorological and agricultural applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Psychophysiological Sensing and State Classification for Attention Management in Commercial Aviation

Attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) can cause pilots to lose airplane state awareness (ASA), and their detection is important to improving commercial aviation safety. The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found that the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness, and that distraction of various forms was involved in all of them. Research on AHPLS, including channelized attention, diverted attention, startle / surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors has been implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during high fidelity flight simulation human subject studies. Pilot participants were asked to perform benchmark tasks and experimental flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to distinguish the AHPLS induced by the benchmark tasks. Unimodal classification using pre-processed electroencephalography (EEG) signals as input features to extreme gradient boosting, random forest and deep neural network multiclass classifiers was implemented. Multi-modal classification using galvanic skin response (GSR) in addition to the same EEG signals and using the same types of classifiers produced increased accuracy with respect to the unimodal case (90 percent vs. 86 percent), although only via the deep neural network classifier. These initial results are a first step toward the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high-fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.

Harrivel, Angela R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Prediction of Cognitive States During Flight Simulation Using Multimodal Psychophysiological Sensing

The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness (ASA), and distraction was involved in all of them. Research on attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) such as channelized attention, diverted attention, startle/surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors was implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during a high fidelity flight simulation human subject study. Twenty-four pilot participants were asked to wear the sensors while they performed benchmark tasks and motion-based flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to predict the occurrence of AHPLS during flight simulation also designed to induce those states. Classifier training data were collected during performance of the benchmark tasks. Multimodal classification was performed, using pre-processed electroencephalography, galvanic skin response, electrocardiogram, and respiration signals as input features. A combination of one, some or all modalities were used. Extreme gradient boosting, random forest and two support vector machine classifiers were implemented. The best accuracy for each modality-classifier combination is reported. Results using a select set of features and using the full set of available features are presented. Further, results are presented for training one classifier with the combined features and for training multiple classifiers with features from each modality separately. Using the select set of features and combined training, multistate prediction accuracy averaged 0.64 +/- 0.14 across thirteen participants and was significantly higher than that for the separate training case. These results support the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real-time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.

Harrivel, Angela R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Dynamic Landslide Hazard Monitoring Framework for the Lower Mekong Region

The Lower Mekong region is one of the most landslide-prone areas of the world. Despite the need for dynamic characterization of landslide hazard zones within the region, it is largely understudied for several reasons. Dynamic and integrated understanding of landslide processes requires landslide inventories across the region, which have not been available previously. Computational limitations also hamper regional landslide hazard assessment, including accessing and processing remotely sensed information. Finally, open-source software and modelling packages are required to address regional landslide hazard analysis. Leveraging an open-source data-driven global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness model framework, this study develops a region-specific dynamic landslide hazard system leveraging satellite-based Earth observation data to assess landslide hazards across the lower Mekong region. A set of landslide inventories were prepared from high-resolution optical imagery using advanced image-processing techniques. Several static and dynamic explanatory variables (i.e., rainfall, soil moisture, slope, relief, distance to roads, distance to faults, distance to rivers) were considered during the model development phase. An extreme gradient boosting decision tree model was trained for the monsoon period of 2015–2019 and the model was evaluated with independent inventory information for the 2020 monsoon period. The model performance demonstrated considerable skill using receiver operating characteristic curve statistics, with Area Under the Curve values exceeding 0.95. The model architecture was designed to use near-real-time data, and it can be implemented in a cloud computing environment (i.e., Google Cloud Platform) for the routine assessment of landslide hazards in the Lower Mekong region. This work was developed in collaboration with scientists at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center as part of the NASA SERVIR Program’s Mekong hub. The goal of this work is to develop a suite of tools and services on accessible open-source platforms that support and enable stakeholder communities to better assess landslide hazard and exposure at local to regional scales for decision making and planning.

Nishan Kumar Biswas↗

NASA NTRS2021

Decoding the effects of synonymous variants

Synonymous single nucleotide variants (sSNVs) are common in the human genome but are often overlooked. However, sSNVs can have significant biological impact and may lead to disease. Existing computational methods for evaluating the effect of sSNVs suffer from the lack of gold-standard training/evaluation data and exhibit over-reliance on sequence conservation signals. We developed synVep (synonymous Variant effect predictor), a machine learning-based method that overcomes both of these limitations. Our training data was a combination of variants reported by gnomAD (observed) and those unreported, but possible in the human genome (generated). We used positive-unlabeled learning to purify the generated variant set of any likely unobservable variants. We then trained two sequential extreme gradient boosting models to identify subsets of the remaining variants putatively enriched and depleted in effect. Our method attained 90% precision/recall on a previously unseen set of variants. Furthermore, although synVep does not explicitly use conservation, its scores correlated with evolutionary distances between orthologs in cross-species variation analysis. synVep was also able to differentiate pathogenic vs. benign variants, as well as splice-site disrupting variants (SDV) vs. non-SDVs. Thus, synVep provides an important improvement in annotation of sSNVs, allowing users to focus on variants that most likely harbor effects.

Zishuo Zeng↗

NASA NTRS2023

Reconstructing PM 2.5 Data Record for the Kathmandu Valley Using a Machine Learning Model

This paper presents a method for reconstructing the historical hourly concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) over the Kathmandu Valley from 1980 to the present. The method uses a machine learning model that is trained using PM2.5 readings from US Embassy (Phora Durbar) as a ground truth, and the meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA2) as input. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model acquires a credible 10-fold cross-validation (CV) score of ~83.4%, an r2-score of ~84%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~15.82 µg/m3, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ~10.27 µg/m3. Further demonstrating the model's applicability to years other than those for which truth values are unavailable, the multiple cross-test with an unseen data set offered r2-scores for 2018, 2019, and 2020 ranging from 56% to 67%. The model-predicted data agrees with true values and indicates that MERRA2 underestimates PM2.5 over the region. It strongly agrees with ground-based evidence showing substantially higher mass concentrations in the dry pre- and post-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon months. It also shows a strong anti-correlation between PM2.5 concentration and humidity. The results also demonstrate that none of the years fulfilled the annual mean air quality index (AQI) standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2023

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of acoustic waves under subsurface conditions to improve the predictions of rock mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics

Mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics are critical to investigate for subsurface engineering applications, including carbon storage, well drilling, and stimulation, as they govern rock stability, fluid flow, and mechanical behavior under stress. This dissertation integrates experimental and machine learning approaches to enhance the prediction and understanding of these properties by analyzing acoustic wave behavior under varied subsurface conditions. First, the influence of temperature, pore pressure, and supercritical CO2 (scCO2) saturation on poroelastic properties is examined using Gray Berea sandstone samples. The results show that temperature and pore pressure significantly affect the bulk modulus and Biot’s coefficient, while scCO2 saturation impacts rock compressibility, informing strategies for effective geological carbon storage. The study extends this understanding by experimentally evaluating the impact of reservoir depletion on the dynamic mechanical properties of the emerging Caney shale in South Oklahoma with the employment of unsupervised machine learning to predict static mechanical properties across the Caney shale. Integrating petrophysical data and chemostratigraphy, the workflow—featuring K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)—improves stratigraphic characterization and the estimation of static-to-dynamic modulus ratios, which is vital for optimizing drilling and stimulation strategies. Finally, the work explores how natural fracture characteristics in shale influence acoustic waveforms and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis. Experimental data on fractured samples under different stress and temperature conditions, combined with machine learning models such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), reveal key fracture properties impacting SWS and wave propagation. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive framework for linking acoustic wave behavior with rock properties, advancing the methods for monitoring and predicting geomechanical changes. The insights offered valuable implications for safer, more efficient CO2 injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and subsurface management.

Elkholy, Sherif↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Well Log Analysis in Uranium Mining

This project explores the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques to automate well log analysis for uranium mining. Geophysical log data—spontaneous potential, resistivity, and gamma ray—were used to classify lithology, correlate well logs and identify roll front zonation patterns, which are critical for locating uranium ore bodies. Supervised ML algorithms such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Random Forest were trained to classify lithology with high accuracy. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), XGBoost, Random Forest, and Neural Networks were also used for role front zone identification. Moreover, a Fast Dynamic Time Warping (FastDTW) algorithm was employed for well log correlation. Additionally, sample lag was addressed using dynamic programming. Results demonstrate the potential of AI and ML to streamline well log analysis and enhance uranium exploration workflows.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive understanding of the surface tension and velocity of sound in ionic liquids using machine learning

Knowledge of the physical properties of ionic liquids (ILs), such as the surface tension and speed of sound, is important for both industrial and research applications. Unfortunately, technical challenges and costs limit exhaustive experimental screening efforts of ILs for these critical properties. Previous work has demonstrated that the use of quantum-mechanics-based thermochemical property prediction tools, such as the conductor-like screening model for real solvents, when combined with machine learning (ML) approaches, may provide an alternative pathway to guide the rapid screening and design of ILs for desired physiochemical properties. However, the question of which machine-learning approaches are most appropriate remains. In the present study, we examine how different ML architectures, ranging from tree-based approaches to feed-forward artificial neural networks, perform in generating nonlinear multivariate quantitative structure–property relationship models for the prediction of the temperature- and pressure-dependent surface tension of and speed of sound in ILs over a wide range of surface tensions (16.9–76.2 mN/m) and speeds of sound (1009.7–1992 m/s). The ML models are further interrogated using the powerful interpretation method, shapley additive explanations. We find that several different ML models provide high accuracy, according to traditional statistical metrics. The decision tree-based approaches appear to be the most accurate and precise, with extreme gradient-boosting trees and gradient-boosting trees being the best performers. However, our results also indicate that the promise of using machine-learning to gain deep insights into the underlying physics driving structure–property relationships in ILs may still be somewhat premature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2026

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Charged particle reconstruction in CLAS12 using Machine Learning

In this work, we present studies of track parameter reconstruction from raw information in CLAS12 detector's Drift Chambers, using Machine Learning (ML). We study the resolution of tracks reconstructed with different types of ML models/algorithms, including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT) using simulated data. We find that the resulting ML model is capable of reconstructing track parameters (particle momentum, and polar and azimuthal angles) with accuracy similar to Hit Based (HB) tracking code, but $150$ times faster. Moreover, physics reactions can be identified using the particles reconstructed by the neural network in real-time (with a rate of about $34~kHz$) during experimental data collection. The developed model can be used in numerous applications, such as triggering specific physics reactions in real-time, detector performance monitoring, and real-time detector calibration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗