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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
NASA NTRS1990

Summary of presentation for research on social structure, agreement, and conflict in groups in extreme and isolated environments

Despite a vast amount of research, little is known concerning the effect of group structure, and individuals' understanding of that structure, on conflict in Antarctic groups. The overall objective of the research discussed is to determine the interrelationships of group structure, social cognition, and group function and conflict in isolated and extreme environments. In the two decades following WWII, a large body of research focused on the physiological, psychological, and social psychological factors affecting the functioning of individuals and groups in a variety of extreme and isolated environments in both the Arctic and Antarctic. There are two primary reasons for further research of this type. First, Antarctic polar stations are considered to be natural laboratories for the social and behavioral sciences and provide an opportunity to address certain theoretical and empirical questions concerned with agreement and conflict in social groups in general and group behavior in extreme, isolated environments in particular. Recent advances in the analysis of social networks and intracultural variation have improved the methods and have shifted the theoretical questions. The research is motivated by three classes of questions: (1) What are the characteristics of the social relations among individuals working and living together in extreme and isolated environments?; (2) What do individuals understand about their group, how does that understanding develop, and how is it socially distributed?; and (3) What is the relationship between that understanding and the functioning of the social group? Answers to these questions are important if we are to advance our knowledge of how individuals and groups adapt to extreme environments. Second, although Antarctic winter-over candidates may be evaluated as qualified on the basis of individual characteristics, they may fail to adapt because of certain characteristics of the social group. Consequently, the ability of winter-over-groups to adapt to these extreme conditions has varied dramatically from year to year. In the past, differences in personality, background, and social status have led to conflicts between individuals or cliques precipitating, in turn, an overall decline in morale, failure to accomplish work tasks, and increases in insomnia, depression, anxiety, and alcohol abuse. A better understanding of the role of group structure and social cognition in processes of group adaptation and conflict in Antarctica would contribute towards the revision of existing screening methods, potentially leading to a reduction of group conflict and improved performance of scientific research and support activities. An improved screening protocol for the Antarctic would also have applications for other isolated environments such as scientific outposts and the proposed NASA space station. In sum, this research will (1) contribute significantly to our theoretical understanding of the role of social structure and cognition in the functioning of groups in isolation; (2) complement current work on health and adaptation in polar environments; and (3) provide for models of the formation of group structure that will aid in the development of improved procedures for assembling groups for the Antarctic and other isolated environments (e.g., space stations).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Extreme Programming in a Research Environment

This article explores the applicability of Extreme Programming in a scientific research context. The cultural environment at a government research center differs from the customer-centric business view. The chief theoretical difficulty lies in defining the customer to developer relationship. Specifically, can Extreme Programming be utilized when the developer and customer are the same person? Eight of Extreme Programming's 12 practices are perceived to be incompatible with the existing research culture. Further, six of the nine 'environments that I know don't do well with XP' apply. A pilot project explores the use of Extreme Programming in scientific research. The applicability issues are addressed and it is concluded that Extreme Programming can function successfully in situations for which it appears to be ill-suited. A strong discipline for mentally separating the customer and developer roles is found to be key for applying Extreme Programming in a field that lacks a clear distinction between the customer and the developer.

Wood, William A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Acclimatization and tolerance to extreme altitude

During the last ten years, two major experiments have elucidated the factors determining acclimatization and tolerance to extreme altitude (over 7000 m). These were the American Medical Research Expedition to Everest, and the low pressure chamber simulation, Operation Everest II. Extreme hyperventilation is one of the most important responses to extreme altitude. Its chief value is that it allows the climber to maintain an alveolar PO2 which keeps the arterial PO2 above dangerously low levels. Even so, there is evidence of residual impairment of central nervous system function after ascents to extreme altitude, and maximal oxygen consumption falls precipitously above 7000 m. The term 'acclimatization' is probably not appropriate for altitudes above 8000 m, because the body steadily deteriorates at these altitudes. Tolerance to extreme altitude is critically dependent on barometric pressure, and even seasonal changes in pressure probably affect climbing performance near the summit of Mt Everest. Supplementary oxygen always improves exercise tolerance at extreme altitudes, and rescue oxygen should be available on climbing expeditions to 8000 m peaks.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗
NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Extreme High and Low Temperature Operation of the Silicon-On-Insulator Type CHT-OPA Operational Amplifier

A new operational amplifier chip based on silicon-on-insulator technology was evaluated for potential use in extreme temperature environments. The CHT-OPA device is a low power, precision operational amplifier with rail-to-rail output swing capability, and it is rated for operation between -55 C and +225 C. A unity gain inverting circuit was constructed utilizing the CHT-OPA chip and a few passive components. The circuit was evaluated in the temperature range from -190 C to +200 C in terms of signal gain and phase shift, and supply current. The investigations were carried out to determine suitability of this device for use in space exploration missions and aeronautic applications under wide temperature incursion. Re-restart capability at extreme temperatures, i.e. power switched on while the device was soaked at extreme temperatures, was also investigated. In addition, the effects of thermal cycling under a wide temperature range on the operation of this high performance amplifier were determined. The results from this work indicate that this silicon-on-insulator amplifier chip maintained very good operation between +200 C and -190 C. The limited thermal cycling had no effect on the performance of the amplifier, and it was able to re-start at both -190 C and +200 C. In addition, no physical degradation or packaging damage was introduced due to either extreme temperature exposure or thermal cycling. The good performance demonstrated by this silicon-on-insulator operational amplifier renders it a potential candidate for use in space exploration missions or other environments under extreme temperatures. Additional and more comprehensive characterization is, however, required to establish the reliability and suitability of such devices for long term use in extreme temperature applications.

Patterson, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2009

SOI N-Channel Field Effect Transistors, CHT-NMOS80, for Extreme Temperatures

Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, are anticipated in many of NASA space exploration missions as well as in terrestrial applications. One can seldom find electronics that are capable of operation under both regimes. Even for operation under one (hot or cold) temperature extreme, some thermal controls need to be introduced to provide appropriate ambient temperatures so that spacecraft on-board or field on-site electronic systems work properly. The inclusion of these controls, which comprise of heating elements and radiators along with their associated structures, adds to the complexity in the design of the system, increases cost and weight, and affects overall reliability. Thus, it would be highly desirable and very beneficial to eliminate these thermal measures in order to simplify system's design, improve efficiency, reduce development and launch costs, and improve reliability. These requirements can only be met through the development of electronic parts that are designed for proper and efficient operation under extreme temperature conditions. Silicon-on-insulator (SOI) based devices are finding more use in harsh environments due to the benefits that their inherent design offers in terms of reduced leakage currents, less power consumption, faster switching speeds, good radiation tolerance, and extreme temperature operability. Little is known, however, about their performance at cryogenic temperatures and under wide thermal swings. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of a new commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) SOI parts over an extended temperature range and to determine the effects of thermal cycling on their performance. The results will establish a baseline on the suitability of such devices for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperatures, and will aid mission planners and circuit designers in the proper selection of electronic parts and circuits. The electronic part investigated in this work comprised of a CHT-NMOS80 high temperature N-channel MOSFET (metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor) device that was manufactured by CISSOID. This high voltage, medium-power transistor is fabricated using SOI processes and is designed for extreme wide temperature applications such as geothermal well logging, aerospace and avionics, and automotive industry. It has a high DC current capability and is specified for operation in the temperature range of -55 C to +225 C

Patterson, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗
NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

sampling bias↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-dimensional Global MHD Simulations

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al., (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst approx. = −1600 nT.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2019

Challenges in Qualification of Thermal Protection Systems in Extreme Entry Environments

Planetary entry vehicles employ ablative TPS materials to shield the aeroshell from entry aeroheating environments. To ensure mission success, it must be demonstrated that the heat shield system, including local features such as seams, does not fail at conditions that are suitably margined beyond those expected in flight. Furthermore, its thermal response must be predictable, with acceptable fidelity, by computational tools used in heat shield design. Mission assurance is accomplished through a combination of ground testing and material response modelling. A material's robustness to failure is verified through arcjet testing while its thermal response is predicted by analytical tools that are verified against experimental data. Due to limitations in flight-like ground testing capability and lack of validated high-fidelity computational models, qualification of heat shield materials is often achieved by piecing together evidence from multiple ground tests and analytical simulations, none of which fully bound the flight conditions and vehicle configuration. Extreme heating environments (>2000 W/sq. cm heat flux and >2 atm pressure), experienced during entries at Venus, Saturn and Ice Giants, further stretch the current testing and modelling capabilities for applicable TPS materials. Fully-dense Carbon Phenolic was the material of choice for these applications; however, since heritage raw materials are no longer available, future uses of re-created Carbon Phenolic will require re-qualification. To address this sustainability challenge, NASA is developing a new dual-layer material based on 3D weaving technology called Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environments (HEEET). Regardless of TPS material, extreme environments pose additional certification challenges beyond what has been typical in recent NASA missions. Scope of this presentation: This presentation will give an overview of challenges faced in verifying TPS performance at extreme heating conditions. Examples include: (1) Bounding aeroheating parameters (heat flux, pressure, shear and enthalpy) in ground facilities. How to certify TPS if environments can't be bounded or aeroheating parameters can't be simultaneously achieved. (2) Higher uncertainties in ground test environments (facility calibration and analytical predictions) at extreme conditions. (3) Testing in flows similar to planetary atmosphere composition (H2/He for Gas and Ice Giants). (4) Test sample size limitations for qualifying seam designs. (5) Lack of computational tools capable of simulating all significant aspects of TPS performance (including initiation and propagation of failures). This presentation will provide recommendations on how the EDL community can address these challenges and mitigate some of the risks involved in flying TPS materials at extreme conditions. Examples include: (1) Dedicated activity to understanding TPS failure modes. Develop computational tools capable of modelling fluid interaction with material's thermostructural response. Validate these tools through failure testing. A better understanding of failure mechanisms may eliminate the need to fully bound all aeroheating parameters in ground testing. (2) Enhancements to current testing facilities to simulate flight-like ablation mechanism (ex. testing in Nitrogen at Ames Interaction Heating Facility to limit oxidation in favor of more sublimation). (3) Improved characterization of test conditions with new diagnostic methods and determination of environment uncertainty through rigorous statistical analysis of available data. (4) Design margin policies that are directly tied to uncertainties in ground test environments and modelling fidelity

Mahzari, Milad↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2023

How Have Hydrological Extremes Changed Over the Past 20 Years?

Severe floods and droughts, including their back-to-back occurrences (weather whiplash), have been increasing in frequency and severity around the world. Improved understanding of systematic changes in hydrological extremes is essential for preparation and adaptation. In this study, we identified and quantified extreme wet and dry events globally by applying a clustering algorithm to terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (FO). The most intense events, ranked using an intensity metric, often reflect impacts of large-scale oceanic oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and consequences of climate change. The severity of both wet and dry events, represented by standardized TWS anomalies, increased significantly in most cases, likely associated with intensification of wet and dry weather regimes in a warmer world, and consequently, exhibited strongest correlation with global temperature. In the Dry climate, the number of wet events decreased while the number of dry events increased significantly, suggesting a drying trend that may be attributed to climate variability and possible increases in irrigation and reliance on groundwater. In the Continental climate where temperature has risen faster than global average, dry events increased significantly. Characteristics of extreme events often showed strong correlations with global temperature, especially when averaged over all climates. These results suggest changes in hydrological extremes and underscore the importance of quantifying total water storage changes when studying hydrological extremes. Extending the GRACE/FO record, which spans 2002 to the present, is essential to continuously tracking changes in TWS and hydrological extremes.

Bailing Li↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature over eastern China based on convection permitting simulations: roles of different moisture processes and precipitation types

The Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling, which indicates a roughly 7% increase in saturated water vapor per 1 °C increase in temperature, can serve as a strong constraint linking the intensity of precipitation extremes and local temperature. However, the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature (referred to as the PE-T relationship) does not always follow the CC scaling and is highly dependent on climate regimes. In this study, we investigated the impacts of different moisture processes and precipitation types on the PE-T relationship over eastern China during the summertime based on convection-permitting model simulations. Consistent with observations, the simulated intensity of precipitation extremes increases with temperature at a rate close to CC (double-CC) scaling below (above) 20 °C. When the temperature exceeds 25 °C, precipitation intensity starts to drop. Precipitation extremes are mainly contributed by the stratiform, MCS (i.e., mesoscale convective system) convective, and non-MCS convective precipitation at low (< 20 °C), medium (20–25 °C), and high (> 25 °C) temperatures, respectively, suggesting that the double-CC scaling occurs when convective types become dominant, while the negative scaling at high temperatures is attributed to the reduced horizontal scale of convection. Corresponding to the reduced intensity of precipitation at high temperatures, there are stronger divergence and subsidence in the low-level atmosphere, which is probably caused by the net cooling associated with the enhanced melting and evaporation of falling hydrometeors due to the lower relative humidity in the low-level atmosphere. Overall, our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the temperature dependence of precipitation extremes in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme hydroclimates amplify the biophysical effects of advanced green-up in temperate China

Vegetation phenology modulates climate by altering energy and water exchange between the land and atmosphere. However, how extreme hydroclimatic conditions modify these phenology-climate feedbacks is still poorly understood. Here, in this study, we used a land–atmosphere-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the impacts of advanced green-up on air temperature under different hydroclimate conditions across temperate China and to Mechanistic analysis elucidate the underlying biophysical mechanisms. By imposing a 14-day earlier green-up in line with recent satellite observations, we found that under mean climate conditions, an earlier leaf-out induces immediate surface cooling of 0.14 °C during green-up and a lagging 0.02 °C warming during senescence averaged for temperate China. Extremely humid conditions amplify the cooling effects to 0.18 °C during green-up, extending this cooling into the senescence period. Conversely, under extremely arid conditions, earlier green-up cools air temperature by 0.09 °C, and amplified senescence warming to 0.16 °C. Mechanism analysis revealed that evapotranspiration-dominated non-radiative processes drive immediate cooling during green-up while radiation and circulation process dominates the delayed but opposite warming/cooling effects during senescence in extremely arid/humid hydroclimates. Given the projected continuation of warming trends and increased frequency of extreme climatic events, it is imperative to incorporate the biophysical effects of vegetation phenology into local climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗