Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗

Pedestal origin and extrapolation of high-density small edge-localised-modes peak parallel energy fluence in ITER and SPARC

Experimental analysis and simulations with the BOUT++ code show that small edge-localised modes (ELMs) in reactor-relevant high-density regimes originate in a region close to the separatrix and only marginally perturb the pedestal structure. The measured divertor peak parallel energy fluence (ε ∥,peak ) for a database of small ELM scenarios in DIII-D and ASDEX Upgrade can be reproduced, within 40 % accuracy on average, if an ad hoc modification of the Eich peak parallel ELM energy fluence model is applied to account for the small ELM pedestal birth location. This allows for first-order extrapolation of small-ELM divertor ε ∥,peak to ITER and SPARC, resulting in values that satisfy the nominal melting threshold of tungsten monoblocks of 12 MJ m −2 . The findings reported in this study, both via modelling and direct measurements, constitute a step forward in assessing small ELMs in high edge-collisionality scenarios as a viable plasma regime for the operation of next-generation fusion machines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prediction of Structures and Atomization Energies of Coinage Metals, (M)n, n < 20: Extrapolation of Normalized Clustering Energies to Predict the Cohesive Energy

The geometries of the group 11 coinage metals (n = 2-20) were optimized to determine the lowest energy isomers for each cluster size, singlets for even numbers and doublets for odd numbers. For copper and silver, 2-D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 6. For gold, 2D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 13. Normalized clustering energies were plotted as a function of cluster size (n-1/3, for n = 4-20) with various DFT functionals and the CCSD(T)-F12b method and were extrapolated to predict the bulk cohesive energy. In the case of copper and silver, there is excellent agreement between the cohesive energies predicted at the CCSD(T)-F12b level of theory and the experimental values. For gold, the CCSD(T)-F12b values needed to be corrected for spin-orbit relativistic effects to obtain good agreement with experiment. Electronic properties including the HOMO-LUMO gaps for the even clusters and the spin densities for the odd clusters were calculated. The lowest gap is predicted to occur for n = 16 where the HOMO and LUMO are very similar in shape.

Persuad, Rudradatt R.↗

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Trends in runaway electron plateau partial recombination by massive H 2 or D 2 injection in DIII-D and JET and first extrapolations to ITER and SPARC

Abstract Experimental trends in thermal plasma partial recombination resulting from massive D 2 injection into high-Z (Ar) containing runaway electron (RE) plateaus in DIII-D and JET are studied for the purpose of achieving sufficiently low electron density ( n e ≈ 10 18 m − 3 ) to increase RE final loss MHD levels. In both DIII-D and JET, thermal electron density n e is found to drop by ∼100 × when the thermal plasma partially recombines, with a minimum at a vacuum vessel-averaged D 2 density in the range 10 20 − 10 21 m − 3 . RE effective resistivity also drops after partial recombination, indicating expulsion of the Ar content. The n e level after partial recombination is found to increase as RE current is increased. The amount of initial Ar in the RE plateau is not observed to have a strong effect on partial recombination. Partial recombination timescales of order 5 ms in DIII-D and 15 ms in JET are observed. These basic trends and timescales are matched with a 1D diffusion model, which is then used to extrapolate to ITER and SPARC tokamaks. Within the approximations of this model, it is predicted that ITER will be able to achieve sufficiently low n e values on time scales faster than expected RE plateau vertical drift timescales (of order 100 ms), provided sufficient D 2 or H 2 is injected. In SPARC, it is predicted that achieving significant n e recombination will be challenging, due to the very high RE current density. In both ITER and SPARC, it is predicted that achieving low n e will be easier with Ar as a background impurity (rather than Ne).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cross-machine comparison of runaway electron generation during tokamak start-up for extrapolation to ITER

A cross-machine comparison of global parameters that determine the runaway electron (RE) generation and loss process during tokamak start-up was carried out with the aim to extrapolate these to ITER. The study found that all considered discharges, also those that do not show signs of RE, are non-thermal at the start, i.e. have a streaming parameter larger than 0.1. During the current ramp-up the electric field, E, remains above the critical value, E c , that allows RE in the plasma. The distinction to be made is not if RE can form but, if sufficient RE can form fast enough such that they are detected or start to dominate the dynamics of the tokamak discharge. The dynamics of the value of E, density and temperature during tokamak are key to the formation of RE. It was found that larger devices operate with E closer to E c , due to their higher temperatures, hence the RE generation is relatively slower. The slower time scales for the formation of RE, estimated to be of the order of 100s of ms in ITER simplifies the development of avoidance schemes. The RE confinement time is also an important determinant of the entire process and is found to increase with the device size. The study also revealed that drift orbit losses, a mechanism often attributed as the main RE loss mechanism during the early tokamak discharge, are actually more difficult to achieve. RE losses might be more likely attributed to RE diffusion due to magnetic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Metrics and extrapolation of resonant magnetic perturbation thresholds for ELM suppression

This large database study of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) edge localized mode (ELM) suppression thresholds in the AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR tokamaks details the key strengths and weaknesses of RMP metrics. The RMP ELM suppression database used for this work contains plasma information at the time of transition from ELMing to ELM suppressed states where a clear experimental threshold is identified. The experimental threshold distributions are compared for five metrics: (1) the island overlap width, (2) pedestal top Chirikov overlap, (3) peeling edge displacement, (4) pedestal top resonant drive, and (5) edge dominant mode overlap. The distributions, the regularity of the dependence on RMP coil currents, and the sensitivities of a given metric to equilibrium reconstruction details are compared. The overlap metric proves to be a good compromise between including the appropriate plasma response physics and maintaining a numerical robustness. This quantity does not exhibit clear power-law scalings for projection, but machine learning can assist in predicting thresholds within the existing parameter ranges and providing uncertainty quantification of those predictions. Two new first-principles models, one utilizing a threshold from the non-linear Modified Rutherford equation evaluated at the pedestal top and one utilizing the SLAYER code to calculate the linear tearing threshold from torque balance, offer possible paths to extrapolation beyond the existing database parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computationally efficient zero-noise extrapolation for quantum-gate-error mitigation

Zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) is a widely used technique for gate error mitigation on near term quantum computers because it can be implemented in software and does not require knowledge of the quantum computer noise parameters. Traditional ZNE requires a significant resource overhead in terms of quantum operations. A recent proposal using a targeted (or random) instead of fixed identity insertion method (riim versus fiim) requires significantly fewer quantum gates for the same formal precision. We start by showing that riim can allow for ZNE to be deployed on deeper circuits than fiim but requires many more measurements to maintain the same statistical uncertainty. We develop two extensions to fiim and riim. The List Identity Insertion Method (liim) allows to mitigate the error from certain cnot gates, typically those with the largest error. Set Identity Insertion Method (siim) naturally interpolates between the measurement-efficient fiim and the gate-efficient riim allowing to trade off fewer cnot gates for more measurements. Finally, we investigate a way to boost the number of measurements, namely to run ZNE in parallel, utilizing as many quantum devices as are available. We explore the performance of riim in a parallel setting where there is a non-trivial spread in noise across sets of qubits within or across quantum computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Volume extrapolation via eigenvector continuation

Here, we develop an extension of eigenvector continuation (EC) that makes it possible to extrapolate simulations of quantum systems in finite periodic boxes across large ranges of box sizes. The formal justification for this approach, which we call finite-volume eigenvector continuation (FVEC), is provided by matching periodic functions at different box sizes. As concrete FVEC implementation we use a discrete variable representation based on plane-wave states and present several applications calculated within this framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

zPerf: A Statistical Gray-Box Approach to Performance Modeling and Extrapolation for Scientific Lossy Compression

With the scaling up of simulation-based scientific discovery on high-performance computing systems, the disparity between compute and I/O has increased, forcing domain scientists to save only a small amount of simulation data to persistent storage. This can result in the loss of essential physics fields that are needed for data analysis. While error-bounded lossy compression has made tremendous progress in bridging the gap between compute and I/O, the lack of understanding of compression performance remains a key hurdle to its wide adoption. Here, in this work, we present zPerf, a statistical gray-box performance modeling approach for scientific lossy compression. Our contributions are threefold: 1) We develop zPerf to estimate the performance of lossy compression techniques, based on in-depth understanding and statistical modeling for data features and core compression metrics; 2) We demonstrate the in-detailed implementation of zPerf using two case studies, where we derive the performance modeling for SZ and ZFP, two leading lossy compressors; 3) We evaluate the effectiveness of zPerf on real-world datasets across various domains. Based on the evaluation, we demonstrate the efficacy of the zPerf performance model; 4) We further discuss three case studies where zPerf is applied to extrapolate the compression ratio of SZ and ZFP with alternative encoding schemes as well as ZFP with an alternative transform scheme. Through the case studies, we demonstrate the potential of zPerf for exploring the design space of lossy compression, which has hardly been studied in the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Method for Extrapolating CMM Data

This report provides a method for evaluating coordinate measuring machine (CMM) data and extrapolating the data to estimate the dimensions of a cylindrical component beyond the sampled measurements. The theoretical basis is provided, and a calculational method is presented. The report also provides detailed, formatted, printed, and plotted representations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Autonomous Critical Data Extrapolator for the AGN-201m

Nuclear nonproliferation serves as a key goal, being undertaken by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). To recognize proliferation there are two pathways that states, who intend to use nuclear material for malicious purposes can take, diversion can misuse. Diversion is when fissile nuclear material is declared to the IAEA for non-weapon purposes, but then covertly removed. If the source of nuclear material, that is not declared and not fissionable, is placed inside the reactor core to create fissile material used to create weapons then the state is using the second pathway of proliferation, misuse. With the emerging development in areas of simulation and machine learning the creation of virtual models of reactor systems, digital twins, serve as a potential method to identify proliferation through detecting anomalous behavior in the reactor. A digital twin for a physical nuclear reactor has never been developed, as digital twins serve as an emerging technology. To investigate the process for development and use of a digital twin for a nuclear reactor Idaho State University’s AGN-201m serves as the nuclear reactor used for development of this digital twin. A data acquisition system has been installed to the reactor system allowing for the transfer of collected data from a reactor operation to Idaho National Laboratory’s Deeplynx data warehouse. When utilizing data to train reactor physics and machine learning models, a significant challenge encountered is the initial state of the data. Nuclear proliferation will have the capacity to be detected when the reactor immediately starts up, nor will it occur after the reactor shuts down. Generally, it will be detected when the reactor is operating at some desired power over a sufficient period for that specific reactor design. For the AGN-201m this will be when the reactor is critical (generally 1 mW or above) for a timespan that is within or less than the range of a regular business day. Datasets sent to Deeplynx have had to be manually cut to when the reactor is critical based on plots of power levels. This method is inefficient and laborious, especially when using multiple datasets at once to train a model. To provide a more streamlined approach an automated critical data extrapolator is developed, with capabilities of recognizing when the reactor operation first reaches criticality, and when the reactor undergoes a SCRAM and is shutdown.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Final Report for Zero-noise Extrapolation for Quantum Sensing

Final Report for the DOE EXPRESS 2022 project "Zero-noise Extrapolation for Quantum Sensing." Contains a description of the motivation, accomplishments, and implications of the technical work performed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Electronic couplings for singlet fission: Orbital choice and extrapolation to the complete basis set limit

Abstract For the search for promising singlet fission candidates, the calculation of the effective electronic coupling, which is required to estimate the singlet fission rate between the initially excited state (S 0 S 1 ) and the multiexcitonic state ( 1 TT, two triplets on neighboring molecules, coupled into a singlet), should be sufficiently reliable and fast enough to explore the configuration space. We propose here to modify the calculation of the effective electronic coupling using a nonorthogonal configuration interaction approach by: (a) using only one set of orbitals, optimized for the triplet state of the molecules, to describe all molecular electronic states, and (b) only taking the leading configurations into consideration. Furthermore, we also studied the basis set convergence of the electronic coupling, and we found, by comparison to the complete basis set limit obtained using the cc‐pV n Z series of basis sets, that both the aug‐cc‐pVDZ and 6–311++G** basis sets are a good compromise between accuracy and computational feasibility. The proposed approach enables future work on larger clusters of molecules than dimers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗