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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing optimal experiments: an application to proton Compton scattering

Interpreting measurements requires a physical theory, but the theory’s accuracy may vary across the experimental domain. To optimize experimental design, and so to ensure that the substantial resources necessary for modern experiments are focused on acquiring the most valuable data, both the theory uncertainty and the expected pattern of experimental errors must be considered. We develop a Bayesian approach to this problem, and apply it to the example of proton Compton scattering. Chiral Effective Field Theory (χEFT) predicts the functional form of the scattering amplitude for this reaction, so that the electromagnetic polarizabilities of the nucleon can be inferred from data. With increasing photon energy, both experimental rates and sensitivities to polarizabilities increase, but the accuracy of χEFT decreases. Our physics-based model of χEFT truncation errors is combined with present knowledge of the polarizabilities and reasonable assumptions about experimental capabilities at HI γ S and MAMI to assess the information gain from measuring specific observables at specific kinematics, i.e. to determine the relative amount by which new data are apt to shrink uncertainties. The strongest gains would likely come from new data on the spin observables Σ 2x and Σ 2x' at ω≃140 to 200 MeV and 40° to 120°. These would tightly constrain γ E1E1 –γ E1M2 . New data on the differential cross section between 100 and 200 MeV and over a wide angle range will substantially improve constraints on α E1 –β M1 , γ π and γ M1M1 –γ M1E2 . Good signals also exist around 160 MeV for Σ 3 and Σ 2z' . As a result, such data will be pivotal in the continuing quest to pin down the scalar polarizabilities and refine understanding of the spin polarizabilities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI to Predict Glass Compositions Satisfying Property and Cooling Rate Criteria

This project aimed to develop a predictive, artificial intelligence/machine learning-based model to identify glass compositions satisfying specified property requirements. Such a model would provide a systematic approach for narrowing down the nearly infinite range of possible compositions for glasses and minimize unnecessary experimental trial and error. A large empirical data set for training and testing the algorithm was obtained from the SciGlass database. It contains glass compositions and corresponding property data from a wide range of literature sources. However, the currently available form of this data, recently released under an open database license, is not conducive to easy querying and use. The data structure was deciphered and a customized parsing code developed to make this data more usable for the current and future work. Neural network models were developed and trained on viscosity data from the database and demonstrated potential for improving prediction accuracy over a traditional regression model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Isotherm Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Contactor Technologies for New Tetraamine-Appended MOF for NGCC Applications

Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.

Caballero, Daison↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Diesel/Biofuel Blends Using Artificial Neural Networks and Linear/Nonlinear Equations

Abstract The use of biomass-derived additives in diesel fuel mixtures has the potential to increase the fuel’s efficiency, decrease the formation of particulate matter during its combustion, and retain the fuel’s behavior in cold weather. To this end, identifying compounds that enable these behaviors is paramount. The present work utilizes a series of linear and non-linear equations in series with artificial neural networks to predict the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value of multi-component blends. Property values of pure components are predicted using artificial neural networks trained with existing experimental data, and these predictions and their expected errors are propagated through linear and non-linear equations to obtain property predictions for multi-component blends. Individual component property prediction errors, defined by blind prediction median absolute error, are 4.91 units, 7.84 units, 0.06 cSt, 4.00 °C, and 0.55 MJ/kg for cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value respectively. On average, property predictions for blends are shown to be accurate to within 6% of the blends’ experimental values. Further, a multitude of compounds expected to be produced from catalytically upgrading products of fast pyrolysis are evaluated with respect to their behavior in diesel fuel blends.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting ground-state properties of 6 Li to each other and to scattering data

We examine the relationship between the asymptotic normalization coefficient (ANC) of 6 Li and other low-energy observables in the α–deuteron system. Our analysis uses a set of calculations carried out within the ab initio no core shell model with continuum (NCSMC) using a variety of inter-nucleon interactions and basis sizes, and yielding 6 Li deuteron separation energies between 1.3 and 1.8 MeV (Hebborn et al 2022 Phys. Rev. Lett. 129 042503). These NCSMC calculations show that the square of the ANC is strongly correlated with the separation energy over this range. In this work, we investigate the origin of this correlation using the phenomenological R-matrix, a single-channel potential and a perturbative approach. We show that this correlation occurs because the depth of the α–deuteron central potential changes by only a small relative amount as the separation energy varies. We then investigate if the ANC can be accurately extracted from α–deuteron phase shifts in an ideal case in which low-energy data are available and there are no experimental errors. We find that both R-matrix and Coulomb-modified effective-range theory (CM-ERE) yield extracted ANCs close to, although not exactly equal to, the NCSMC value, provided the extrapolation is constrained by the known position of the bound-state pole and at least three terms are included in the fit function. The R-matrix approach converges faster than the CM-ERE as the number of parameters increases and is also more robust against the inclusion of low-energy and high-energy phase shift data. Finally, our study also shows that a naive quantification of uncertainties by comparing different truncations used in both theories is not accurate, and suggests the accuracy of ANCs extracted from phase shift data needs further investigation.

R-matrix↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for ASME VVUQ Symposium Workshop on Regression of Validation Data to an Application Point

This dataset consists of a collection of Excel spreadsheets that contain output from analysis specified in the workshop. The analysis involves ASME V&V 20-style validation as well as the application of a supplement methodology for regression of validation comparison error and validation uncertainty to application points where experimental data does not exist for comparison. The simulation results and experimental data are provided by the workshop organizers and a NASA report, respectively.

Kirsch, Jared Roelof [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of strength and phase transition kinetics in dynamically-compressed tin

Dynamic compression experiments in condensed matter are of interest in part because they provide opportunities to examine material response under extreme conditions; however, the inference of material behavior from dynamic experiments is challenging in the presence of phase transitions exhibiting kinetic processes. Demonstrating an approach to quantitative interpretation of such dynamic experiments, here we present a Bayesian model calibration of strength and phase transformation parameters to data drawn from pulsed power and gas gun shot experiments. The posterior predictions of the Bayesian model capture the experimental measurements and account for the various uncertainties in the experimental configurations. This holistic approach to model calibration utilizing multiple types of experimental data identifies important cross correlations among kinetics, strength, and the phase boundary. Improved insight into potential sources of current model form error is provided by comparing the differences between calibrations against different subsets of the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗
DOE OSTI2021

The pp → W(→ lν) + γ process at next-to-next-to-leading order

We present details of the calculation of the pp → W(→ lν)γ process at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD, calculated using the jettiness slicing method. The calculation is based entirely on analytic amplitudes. Because of the radiation zero, the NLO QCD contribution from the gq channel is as important as the contribution from the Born $ q\overline{q} $ process, disrupting the normal counting of leading and sub-leading contributions. We also assess the importance of electroweak (EW) corrections, including the EW corrections to both the six-parton channel 0 →$ \overline{u} d\nu {e}^{+}\gamma g $ and the five-parton channel 0 →$ \overline{u} d\nu {e}^{+}\gamma $. Previous experimental results have been shown to agree with theoretical predictions, taking into account the large experimental errors. With the advent of run II data from the LHC, the statistical errors on the data will decrease, and will be competitive with the error on theoretical predictions for the first time. We present numerical results for $ \sqrt{s} $ = 7 and 13 TeV. Analytic results for the one-loop six-parton QCD amplitude and the tree-level seven-parton QCD amplitude are presented in appendices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield degradation mechanisms for two-shock capsules evaluated through simulations

An investigation of twenty two-shock campaign indirectly driven capsules on the National Ignition Facility was conducted using the xRAGE computer code. The two-shock platform was developed to look at the sensitivity of fuel–ablator mix with shock timing, asymmetry, surface roughness, and convergence on roughly ignition size scale capsules. This platform used CH/CD (plastic/deuterated plastic) shell capsules that were about 685-μm outer radius and filled with D2 or hydrogen-tritium (HT) gas. The experimental radius and velocity vs time, neutron yield, burn averaged ion temperature (Tion), burn width, and self-emission image size were compared to one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) simulations. Our 2D simulations suggest that the mixing of glass from the fill tube was the dominant source of impurity in the gas region of the capsule during burn, along with fuel–ablator mix. The mass of glass mixed in is about 5–10 ng. Our 2D simulations capture most of the yield trends from different degradation mechanisms, and they match the observed burn width and Tion measurements. Our 2D models match all the available data to within 2.5 times the normalized experimental error for 19 of 20 capsules.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear properties with semilocal momentum-space regularized chiral interactions beyond N 2 LO

We present a comprehensive investigation of few-nucleon systems as well as light and medium-mass nuclei up to A = 48 using the current Low Energy Nuclear Physics International Collaboration two-nucleon interactions in combination with the third-order (N 2 LO) three-nucleon forces. To address the systematic overbinding of nuclei starting from A ≈ 10 found in our earlier study utilizing the N 2 LO two- and three-nucleon forces, we take into account higher-order corrections to the two-nucleon potentials up through fifth order in chiral effective field theory. Here, the resulting Hamiltonian can be completely determined using the A = 3 binding energies and selected nucleon-deuteron cross sections as input. It is then shown to predict other nucleon-deuteron scattering observables and spectra of light p-shell nuclei, for which a detailed correlated truncation error analysis is performed, in agreement with experimental data. Moreover, the predicted ground state energies of nuclei in the oxygen isotopic chain from 14 O to 26 O as well as 40 Ca and 48 Ca show a remarkably good agreement with experimental values, given that the Hamiltonian is fixed completely from the A ≤ 3 data, once the fourth-order (N 3 LO) corrections to the two-nucleon interactions are taken into account. On the other hand, the charge radii are found to be underpredicted by ≈10% for the oxygen isotopes and by almost 20% for 40 Ca and 48 Ca.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Validation of a Simulation Testbed for the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL) Using TRNSYS

This paper documents the development and validation of a dynamic primary cooling and thermal storage system simulation testbed. The system simulation testbed, sIBAL, is based on the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which is a research infrastructure and testbed for the development, evaluation, and demonstration of intelligent control algorithms. The sIBAL testbed developed in this project will serve as a virtual twin of the real facility for future control algorithm development. The details of the methodologies used to develop and validate the simulation testbed, which replicates the dynamic behaviors of the primary cooling and ice storage system in the IBAL facility, are presented. The simulation testbed was developed in TRNSYS using built-in component models and MATLAB functions to replicate the two water-cooled chillers, a thermal storage tank, pumps, valves and other components for four different operation modes. Experiments on IBAL components were designed and executed to generate experimental data for model development and verification of the simulation platform. The validation of the simulation results was carried out in two phases: 1) independent component simulations for the chillers and thermal storage tank, and 2) a combined testbed simulation of the entire hydronic system. Comparison of simulation results to the experimental data obtained from the IBAL facility showed errors within 1 °C for the temperatures outputs of both the chiller and the thermal storage model. The error is within an acceptable range for further intelligent control algorithms development. The findings from the study are summarized and presented along with areas where additional research is needed. In addition, data filtering procedures and model refinement measures utilized to improve the accuracy and accelerate the computation time of the simulation are presented.

cooling systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Anomaly Detection for MPC Forecasts of HVAC Systems in Residential Communities

The use of residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) to shift peak demand or provide ancillary services is a potential solution in the presence of older grids and distributed renewables. However, to ensure the efficient use of devices, utilities need to accurately forecast the load and adopt error correction schemes when necessary. While significant theoretical research exists in the area of predictive control of HVAC, little experimental evidence exists. The lack of experimental data in turn causes researchers to be unprepared for unsystematic errors which emerge due to the higher complexity of the data generating process. This study offers an anomaly detection methodology that uses unsupervised machine learning algorithms to detect and isolate these errors with different forecast error ranges. The results of anomaly detection procedure can then be used for error correction and would eventually help develop better predictive controllers. The methodology is tested using real world data from a smart neighborhood that currently operates in Atlanta. GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anomalous behavior in high-pressure carbonaceous sulfur hydride

A new experimental study reported behavior in a high-pressure carbon-sulfur-hydrogen system that has been interpreted by the authors as superconductivity at room temperature. The sudden change of electrical resistance at a critical temperature and the change of the R vs. T behavior with an applied magnetic field point to superconductivity. This is a very exciting study in one of the most important areas of science, hence, it is crucial for the community to investigate these findings and hopefully reproduce these results. In this paper, we present calculations that expand upon the arguments put forth, and offer some speculations about physical mechanisms that might explain the observed data. Here, we show that there are errors in the analysis presented in the experimental paper, and with the correct analysis, the reported R vs. T data significantly deviate from the expected behavior. In particular, the extremely sharp change in resistance at the superconducting transition is not consistent with a strongly type II superconductor.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the thermal conductivity of molten LiF-NaF-KF with experiments, theory, and equilibrium molecular dynamics

Molten salts are being proposed for numerous advanced energy applications, including advanced nuclear reactors, concentrating solar power plants, thermal energy storage, and fusion reactors. Accurate knowledge of the thermophysical properties of molten salts directly impact the performance of these energy systems and are essential for design and safety analyses. Thermal conductivity data for fluoride molten salts and mixtures are especially lacking. In this work, experimental measurements of thermal conductivity using the steady-state variable gap technique were performed on eutectic LiF-NaF-KF from 834 to 1195 K. The experiment accounts for radiative, convective, and conductive heat losses. In addition, theoretical and molecular dynamics models are used, from 750 K up to 1300 K, to estimate the thermal conductivity for comparison with the experimental results. The results of experiments show a weak negative deviation of thermal conductivity with temperature, unlike previous experimental results in the literature. The measured thermal conductivity magnitudes agree with the theoretical and molecular dynamics predictions, aside from the data above 1100 K, where heat losses and radiative errors are the most significant, having a 16% maximum deviation from theory. These experimental results provide new thermal conductivity data for the LiF-NaF-KF system and further validation of the predictive models. The theoretical model was used to map the composition and temperature dependent thermal conductivity of LiF-NaF-KF and the mapping’s deviation from a linear additivity estimation of thermal conductivity. Additionally, this mapping showed the highest deviations from linearity for KF-LiF rich mixtures and increasing deviation with temperature. Notably, the deviation from linearity near the LiF-NaF-KF eutectic composition was around 25%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗