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Deployment Implications of Reaching the DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot Goal: A Summary of Initial Results and Methods [Slides]
The Floating Offshore Wind Shot is an initiative to help usher in a clean energy future by driving U.S. leadership in floating offshore wind design, development, and manufacturing. Here, we document impact of attaining the Shot cost goal of $45/megawatt-hour by 2035, a reduction of 70% from today's cost levels. We find deployment of 90-120 gigawatt of floating offshore wind by 2050.
The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study
The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.
Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2023 Update
In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We use the recent publications to create low, mid, and high cost projections. Projected storage costs are $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.
Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy
Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.
Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource and Deployment Potential
There is growing interest in deploying new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) to meet grid needs for flexibility, reliability, and resiliency. This presentation describes how NLR resource assessment, cost modeling, and capacity expansion modeling are used to identify technical and economic PSH deployment potential and support industry decision-making on PSH investments. NLR's open data and tools demonstrate the vast technical potential of PSH on the order of 80 TW, and modeling shows economic PSH deployment under an attractive cost-value proposition.
Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]
The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.
Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies
Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.
Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies
Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.
An AI-driven framework for evaluating local and state authorities’ permitting processes
The demand for new energy infrastructure is increasing across the United States, but heterogenous permitting processes and embedded requirements across different local jurisdictions can cause project delays, increase “soft costs,” and hinder developer expansion. This study analyzes the variability in local permitting requirements across the U.S. and develops a quantitative approach to describe their clarity and effectiveness in enabling infrastructure project development. By using an Energy Language Model (ELM), a large language model (LLM) for energy technologies, we systematically gathered permitting information from nearly 300 state-, county-, and city-level documents, creating a structured dataset of requirements and procedures on an unprecedented scale and speed. Our analysis revealed that local (city and county) permitting requirement documents are underrepresented compared to state-level guidance documents, which can impede timely and cost-effective installation of new electric infrastructure. Our validation process showed that the final database has an accuracy of approximately 95%. We, further, created a new quantitative method to score permitting requirements for clarity and efficiency, with electric vehicle supply equipment as an initial use case. The average local permitting document scored a 1.8 out of 5, which we interpret as meaning that half of the requirements developers face when installing electric infrastructure are ambiguous, increasing both cost and time. We also created a “Generalized Permit Process”, highlighting common procedural steps and identifying specific opportunities for municipalities to improve their documentation. This research establishes a systematic and scalable framework for evaluating the complexities of local infrastructure permitting processes by combining LLM-powered data collection and quantitative scoring. The framework enables policymakers and developers to identify and mitigate procedural bottlenecks, with the expectation that these improvements can accelerate application review and approval, reduce project costs, and expedite connection to utility distribution grids. As a foundational approach for streamlining local project development processes, this study’s methods are intended to be extended to a wide range of energy applications.
Lightweight, Low-CTE Tubes Made From Biaxially Oriented LCPs
Tubes made from biaxially oriented liquid-crystal polymers (LCPs) have been developed for use as penetrations on cryogenic tanks. ( Penetrations in this context denotes feed lines, vent lines, and sensor tubes, all of which contribute to the undesired conduction of heat into the tanks.) In comparison with corresponding prior cryogenic-tank penetrations made from stainless steels and nickel alloys, the LCP penetrations offer advantages of less weight and less thermal conduction. An additional major advantage of LCP components is that one can tailor their coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs). The estimated cost of continuous production of LCP tubes of typical sizes is about $1.27/ft ($4.17/m) [based on 1998 prices]. LCP tubes that are compatible with liquid oxygen and that feature tailored biaxial molecular orientation and quasi-isotropic properties (including quasi-isotropic CTE) have been fabricated by a combination of proprietary and patented techniques that involve the use of counterrotating dies (CRDs). Tailoring of the angle of molecular orientation is what makes it possible to tailor the CTE over a wide range to match the CTEs of adjacent penetrations of other tank components; this, in turn, makes it possible to minimize differential-thermal expansion stresses that arise during thermal cycling. The fabrication of biaxially oriented LCP tubes by use of CRDs is not new in itself. The novelty of the present development lies in tailoring the orientations and thus the CTEs and other mechanical properties of the LCPs for the intended cryogenic applications and in modifications of the CRDs for this purpose. The LCP tubes and the 304-stainless-steel tubes that the LCP tubes were intended to supplant were tested with respect to burst strength, permeability, thermal conductivity, and CTE.
A Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer for a Global Ground-Based Column Carbon Monitoring Network
We present progress in the development of a passive, miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR) that will measure key greenhouse gases (C02, CH4, CO) in the atmospheric column as well as their respective altitude profiles, and O2 for a measure of atmospheric pressure. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a spectroscopic method that borrows from radio receiver technology. In this technique, a weak incoming signal containing information of interest is mixed with a stronger signal (local oscillator) at a nearby frequency. In this case, the weak signal is sunlight that has undergone absorption by a trace gas of interest and the local oscillator is a distributive feedback (DFB) laser that is tuned to a wavelength near the absorption feature of the trace gas. Mixing the sunlight with the laser light, in a fast photoreceiver, results in a beat signal in the RF. The amplitude of the beat signal tracks the concentration of the trace gas in the atmospheric column. The mini-LHR operates in tandem with AERONET, a global network of more than 450 aerosol sensing instruments. This partnership simplifies the instrument design and provides an established global network into which the mini-LHR can rapidly expand. This network offers coverage in key arctic regions (not covered by OCO-2) where accelerated warming due to the release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing tundra and permafrost is a concern as well as an uninterrupted data record that will both bridge gaps in data sets and offer validation for key flight missions such as OCO-2, OCO-3, and ASCENDS. Currently, the only ground global network that routinely measures multiple greenhouse gases in the atmospheric column is TCCON (Total Column Carbon Observing Network) with 18 operational sites worldwide and two in the US. Cost and size of TCCON installations will limit the potential for expansion, We offer a low-cost $30Klunit) solution to supplement these measurements with the added benefit of an established aerosol optical depth measurement. Aerosols induce a radiative effect that is an important modulator of regional carbon cycles. Changes in the diffuse radiative flux fraction (DRF) due to aerosol loading have the potential to alter the terrestrial carbon exchange.
Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs
Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.
The Effect of Clean Energy Generation Targets on the Portfolio of Electric Grid Generation Technologies
A least-cost generation and transmission expansion planning model is used to optimize the U.S. generation portfolio in 2030 under a range of Clean Energy Generation Target (CEGT) policy goals. As reference cases for comparison, the model is used to optimize the generation portfolio for the future electric grid with and without the Investment and Production Tax Credits (ITC and PTC). Next, the model is used to optimize the generation portfolio with a CEGT ranging from 10% to 70%. The results show that due to the ITC and PTC extensions by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, there is little additional investment in renewable energy generation assets at low CEGT levels. Significant additional installations of both renewable energy generation and energy storage systems – both batteries and pumped storage hydro – become important at CEGT levels above approximately 30%.
Demand Response Analysis for Different Residential Personas in a Comfort-Driven Behavioral Context
Low demand response (DR) participation and high program drop-out rates continue to impede DR goals that could save up to $13 billion in annual grid expansion and electricity demand costs. Yet, the literature lacks a thorough understanding of how different residential customer segments enrolled in DR programs respond to utility signals in view of occupant comfort considerations. The objective of this study is to gain a clear understanding of the effects of four different customer personas on residential DR. Given current data limitations, this work developed an array of hypothetical personas with varied priorities, activity levels, and comfort thresholds based on demographic variables that have been found in previous studies to influence energy consumption. A BEopt DR model for a reference residential single-family building located in Colorado was built to isolate the effect of differences in buildings or climate. The results provide useful evidence on how persona-comfort differences lead to significant deviations in DR goals (especially peak demand reduction), ranging from 0.1% to 20%. This work presents a novel framework representing comfort preferences in DR models. The data generated, albeit synthetic, and the results could inform DR program design considerations of how different people respond to different comfort priorities.
Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector
The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.
Evaluation of Microhole Drilling Technology for Geothermal Exploration, Assessment, And Monitoring
One of the greatest barriers to geothermal energy expansion is the high cost of drilling during exploration, assessment, and monitoring. Microhole drilling technology—small-diameter 2–4 in. (~5.1–10.2 cm) boreholes—is one potential low-cost alternative for monitoring and evaluating bores. However, delivering high weight-on-bit (WOB), high torque rotational horsepower to a conventional drill bit does not scale down to the hole sizes needed to realize the cost savings. Coiled tube drilling technology is one solution, but these systems are limited by the torque resistance of the coil system, helical buckling in compression, and most of all, WOB management. The evaluation presented herein will: (i) evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of low WOB technologies (specifically, a percussive hammer and a laser-mechanical system), (ii) develop downhole rotational solutions for low WOB drilling, (iii) provide specifications for a low WOB microhole drilling system, (iv) implement WOB control for low WOB drilling, and (v) evaluate and test low WOB drilling technologies.
Cross-Cutting Metrology Tools for In Operando Characterization of Carrier Dynamics in Photovoltaic Devices (Final Technical Report)
Understanding the nature of recombination and its dependence on defects and interfaces is essential for engineering materials and contacts for higher V oc and photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) has conventionally been used to evaluate recombination, but not all materials are strongly emissive or otherwise suitable. Time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy is a pump – probe method that presents valuable complementary information, wherein an optical pump pulse photoexcites carriers within the absorber and the transient photoconductivity is probed with a terahertz pulse. Until now, experimental constraints have prohibited the use of terahertz probes to interrogate full device stacks, and measurements were instead made on exfoliated films or films grown on unconventional substrates. However, interfaces are critical to the behavior of photoexcited carriers in solar cells, and the substrates themselves often influence the film growth and bulk properties. Therefore, it is important to probe the behavior of PV absorbers as close as possible to their normal operating conditions. Here we have developed cross-cutting metrology that enable in operando characterization of carrier dynamics and recombination mechanisms in working PV devices. Through a combination of complementary non-contact TRTS and TRPL experiments and modeling, we have obtained key parameters including photoexcited carrier bulk lifetime and interface and back surface recombination velocities with greater precision and accuracy than can be achieved with conventional TRPL alone. By varying pulsed photoexcitation conditions, the contributions of interface and bulk recombination mechanisms can be determined. We have developed and refined this characterization approach by investigating CdTe PVs, which is a well-established technology but with significant margin for further improvements in efficiency. Results were published in Journal of Applied Physics (DOI: 10.1063/5.0064730) and Proceedings of the IEEE PVSC (DOI: 10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518559). After validating the approach, we have applied it to correlate recombination rates to processing conditions and material properties, including composition and defects as well as interfaces and surface treatments. Such feedback can inform processing and design choices to enable higher PV efficiency, not only for CdTe, but also CdSe x Te 1-x , CIGS, perovskites, kesterites, and future technologies. A perspective on predicting solar cell performance from terahertz spectroscopy was published in Advanced Energy Materials (DOI: 10.1002/aenm.202102776). The cross-cutting metrology tools developed here will enable determination of the locus and mechanism of performance-limiting recombination in thin film PV devices. This feedback can guide the engineering of PV devices with higher V oc and efficiency, thereby leading to reductions in levelized cost of electricity to meet the SunShot 2030 target of $0.03/kWh for utility-scale PV. Lower costs will enable rapid expansion of renewable electricity generation that is nearly free of carbon emissions. Reducing carbon emissions of the electricity sector is one of the most important solutions to climate change. The project’s specific focus on CdTe PV can benefit First Solar, the US company that is the global leader in CdTe technology, through both technology and workforce development.