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NASA NTRS2017

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scare filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDOAIA and SDOHIM data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancelation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scare filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs. We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process from the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Onset Mechanism for Solar Coronal Jets, and Implications for the Onset Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions

Large-scale solar eruptions often include ejection of a filament, a solar flare, and expulsion of a coronal mass ejection (CME). Unravelling the magnetic processes that build up the free energy for these eruptions and trigger that energy's release in the eruption is a continuing challenge in solar physics. Such large-scale eruptions are comparatively infrequent, with the moderate level ones (say, GOES M-class events) occurring perhaps once every few days on average during active-activity times, and much less frequently during quieter times. In contrast, solar coronal jets, which are long (~50,000 km), narrow (<~10,000 km), transient (~10---20 min) plasma spires with bright bases and that are seen in soft X-rays and EUV, occur much more frequently, likely several hundred times per day independent of large-scale solar activity level. Recent studies indicate that coronal jets are small-scale versions of large-scale eruptions, often produced by eruption of a small-scale "miniflament," that results in a "miniflare" analogous to a larger typical solar flare, and that sometimes produces a CME analogue (a "narrow CME" or "white-light jet"). Under the assumption that jets are small-scale eruptions, their higher occurrence frequency and faster build-up evolution reveals perhaps fundamental aspects of all eruptions that are not as easy to discern in the more-complex magnetic environment and the slower build up to the larger eruptions. Therefore, the study of coronal jets can provide insights into the onset mechanism of CME-producing large-scale eruptions.

Alphonse C Sterling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Isolated vesicles in submarine pumice: insights from the 2019 Volcano F eruption, Kingdom of Tonga

No reliable method can distinguish between subaerial and submarine pumice, but recent work shows that highly vesicular (total porosity, φ > 65%) submarine pumice from the 2012 Havre and 2021 Fukutoku Oka-no-Ba eruptions contains abundant isolated porosity (connectivity, C < 0.6). This differs from textural measurements of subaerial pumice with similarly high vesicularities, where high connectivities (C > 0.8) are often measured. To investigate the implications of this under-studied texture for bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence dynamics at submarine eruptions, we analyze the textural characteristics of rafted pumice clasts from the 2019 submarine eruption of Volcano F, located along the Tonga-Kermadec Arc. We examined clasts collected while floating near the vent (50–200 km) and distally on the shores of Fiji (900 km). Using helium pycnometry and X-ray tomography (XRT), we quantified porosity and connectivity in 45 pumice lapilli, classifying them by vesicle macrotexture and edge morphology. Microvesicular clasts, the majority of which have breadcrust and cauliflower textures, exhibit the lowest connectivities (C = 0.61 ± 0.2), while macrovesicular clasts have high connectivities with C ~ 1. We propose that isolated porosity abundance varies according to clast location in the eruption column post-fragmentation. Microvesicular clasts erupted on the edges of the column and experienced high levels of seawater ingestion and subsequent quenching of the entire clast. Macrovesicular clasts, in contrast, erupted in the center of the eruption column and were thus thermally insulated, allowing magmatic bubbles in the molten pumice to nucleate, grow, and coalesce for longer. Our results and interpretation imply that low connectivity, microvesicular clasts preserve pre and syn-eruptive bubble processes at the 2019 Volcano F eruption.

Permeability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗

NASA NTRS1991

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Classification of Volcanic Eruptions on Io and Earth Using Low-Resolution Remote Sensing Data

Two bodies in the Solar System exhibit high-temperature active volcanism: Earth and Io. While there are important differences in the eruptions on Earth and Io, in low-spatial-resolution data (corresponding to the bulk of available and foreseeable data of Io), similar styles of effusive and explosive volcanism yield similar thermal flux densities. For example, a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Io looks very similar to a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Earth. If, from observed thermal emission as a function of wavelength and change in thermal emission with time, the eruption style of an ionian volcano can be constrained, estimates of volumetric fluxes can be made and compared with terrestrial volcanoes using techniques derived for analysing terrestrial remotely-sensed data. In this way we find that ionian volcanoes fundamentally differ from their terrestrial counterparts only in areal extent, with Io volcanoes covering larger areas, with higher volumetric flux. Io outbursts eruptions have enormous implied volumetric fluxes, and may scale with terrestrial flood basalt eruptions. Even with the low-spatial resolution data available it is possible to sometimes constrain and classify eruption style both on Io and Earth from the integrated thermal emission spectrum. Plotting 2 and 5 m fluxes reveals the evolution of individual eruptions of different styles, as well as the relative intensity of eruptions, allowing comparison to be made from individual eruptions on both planets. Analyses like this can be used for interpretation of low-resolution data until the next mission to the jovian system. For a number of Io volcanoes (including Pele, Prometheus, Amirani, Zamama, Culann, Tohil and Tvashtar) we do have high/moderate resolution imagery to aid determination of eruption mode from analyses based only on low spatial-resolution data.

Davies, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Recent Observations of the Early Stage of Solar Eruptions

We examine the onset of two solar eruptions, using data from Hinode STEREO, TRACE, and SOHO, and other sources. One eruption occurred on 2007 March 2, and the other occurred on 2007 May 20. The first eruption involves a filament that erupts, and motions of the filament begin at least 20 min prior to onset of the main eruption; magnetic cancellation occurs beneath the filament among opposite polarity magnetic elements for at least six hours prior to the eruption.. In the second case, a surge-like filament is ejected from a location north of the main erupting magnetic neutral line; in this case magnetic cancellation occurs both along the main neutral line and also at the sight of the surge source north of the main neutral line. Thus in both cases, magnetic cancellation prior to eruption plays a crucial role in releasing the magnetic energy responsible for the respective eruptions.

Sterling, Alphonse↗

NASA NTRS2011

Constraints on Determining the Eruption Style and Composition of Terrestrial Lavas from Space

The surface temperatures of active lavas relate to cooling rates, chemistry, and eruption style. We analyzed 61 hyperspectral satellite images acquired by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion imaging spectrometer to document the surface temperature distributions of active lavas erupted at 13 volcanoes. Images were selected to encompass the range of common lava eruption styles, specifically, lava fountains, flows, lakes, and domes. Our results reveal temperature distributions for terrestrial lavas that correlate with composition (i.e., a statistically significant difference in the highest temperatures retrieved for mafic lavas and intermediate and felsic lavas) and eruption style. Maximum temperatures observed for mafi c lavas are approx.200 C higher than for intermediate and felsic lavas. All eruption styles exhibit a low-temperature mode at approx.300 C; lava fountains and 'a' a flows also exhibit a higher-temperature mode at approx.700 C. The observed differences between the temperatures are consistent with the contrasting rates at which the lava surfaces are thermally renewed. Eruption styles that allow persistent and pervasive thermal renewal of the lava surface (e.g., fractured crusts on channel-fed 'a' a flows) exhibit a bimodal temperature distribution; eruption styles that do not (e.g., the continuous skin of pahoehoe lavas) exhibit a single mode. We conclude that insights into composition and eruption style can only be gained remotely by analyzing a large spatio-temporal sample of data. This has implications for determining composition and eruption style at the Jovian moon Io, for which no in situ validation is available.

Wright, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2017

Lava Eruption and Emplacement: Using Clues from Hawaii and Iceland to Probe the Lunar Past

Investigating recent eruptions on Earth is crucial to improving understanding of relationships between eruption dynamics and final lava flow morphologies. In this study, we investigated eruptions in Holuhraun, Iceland, and Kilauea, Hawaii to gain insight into the lava dynamics near the source vent, the initiation of lava channels, and the origin of down-channel features. Insights are applied to Rima Bode on the lunar nearside to deduce the sequence of events that formed this lunar sinuous rille system.These insights are crucial to correctly interpreting whether the volcanic features associated with Rima Bode directly relate to eruption conditions at the vent and, thus, can help us understand those eruption dynamics, or, alternatively, whether the features formed as a result of more localized influences on lava flow dynamics. For example, if the lava channel developed early in the eruption and was linked to pulses in vent activity, its morphology can be analyzed to interpret the flux and duration of the eruption. Conversely, if the lava channel initiated late in the eruption as the result of a catastrophic breaching of lava that had previously pooled within the vent [e.g., 1], then the final channel morphology will not indicate eruption dynamics but rather local dynamics associated with that breach event. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is crucial for correctly interpreting the intensity and duration of volcanic history on the Moon.

sinuous rille↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Triggering Mechanism of Quiet-Region Coronal Jet Eruptions: Flux Cancelation

Coronal jets are frequent transient features on the Sun, observed in EUV and X-ray emissions. They occur in active regions, quiet Sun and coronal holes, and appear as a bright spire with base brightenings. Recent studies show that many coronal jets are driven by the eruption of a minifilament. Here we investigate the magnetic cause of jet-driving minifilament eruptions. We study ten randomly-found on-disk quiet-region coronal jets using SDO/AIA intensity images and SDO/HMI magnetograms. For all ten events, we track the evolution of photospheric magnetic flux in the jet-base region in EUV images and find that (a) a cool (transition-region temperature) minifilament is present prior to each jet eruption; (b) the pre-eruption minifilament resides above the polarity-inversion line between majority-polarity and minority-polarity magnetic flux patches; (c) the opposite-polarity flux patches converge and cancel with each other; (d) the cancelation between the majority-polarity and minority-polarity flux patches eventually destabilizes the field holding the minifilament to erupt outwards; (e) the envelope of the erupting field barges into ambient oppositely-directed far-reaching field and undergoes external reconnection (interchange reconnection); (f) the external reconnection opens the envelope field and the minifilament field inside, allowing reconnected-heated hot material and cool minifilament material to escape along the far-reaching field, producing the jet spire. In summary, we found that each of our ten jets resulted from a minifilament eruption following flux cancelation at the magnetic neutral line under the pre-eruption minifilament. These observations show that flux cancelation is usually the trigger of quiet-region coronal jet eruptions.

coronal jet↗

NASA NTRS2017

Lava Eruption and Emplacement: Using Clues from Hawaii and Iceland to Probe the Lunar Past

Investigating recent eruptions on Earth is crucial to improving understanding of relationships between eruption dynamics and final lava flow morphologies. In this study, we investigated eruptions in Holuhraun, Iceland, and Kilauea, Hawaii to gain insight into the lava dynamics near the source vent, the initiation of lava channels, and the origin of down-channel features. Insights are applied to Rima Bode on the lunar nearside to deduce the sequence of events that formed this lunar sinuous rille system. These insights are crucial to correctly interpreting whether the volcanic features associated with Rima Bode directly relate to eruption conditions at the vent and, thus, can help us understand those eruption dynamics, or, alternatively, whether the features formed as a result of more localized influences on lava flow dynamics. For example, if the lava channel developed early in the eruption and was linked to pulses in vent activity, its morphology can be analyzed to interpret the flux and duration of the eruption. Conversely, if the lava channel initiated late in the eruption as the result of a catastrophic breaching of lava that had previously pooled within the vent [e.g., 1], then the final channel morphology will not indicate eruption dynamics but rather local dynamics associated with that breach event. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is crucial for correctly interpreting the intensity and duration of volcanic history on the Moon.

Needham, Debra Hurwitz↗

NASA NTRS2013

Alternating Twist Along an Erupting Prominence

Triangulation measurements using observations from the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, combined with observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), are used to characterize the behavior of a prominence involved in two successive coronal mass ejections 6-7 December 2010. The STEREO separation at the time was 171.6 degrees, which was functionally equivalent to a separation of 8.4 degrees, and thus very favorable for feature co-identification above the limb. The first eruption at approximately 14:16 UT (Universal Time) on 6 December of the middle branch of the prominence starts off a series of magnetic reconfigurations in the right branch, which itself erupts at approximately 2:06 UT the next day, about 12 hours after the first eruption. The cool prominence material seen at 304 angstroms drains back down to the surface, but a flux-rope-like magnetic structure is seen to erupt in both 195 angstroms by the STEREO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI), and in white light by the STEREO/COR1 (Coronagraph 1) inner coronagraph. In between the two eruptions, two different signs of helicity are seen in the measured twist of the right branch. This is interpreted to be caused by the overall prominence channel being composed of different segments with alternating helicity signs. The erupting parts on 6 and 7 December both show positive twist, but negative twist is seen in between these positive sections. Negative twist is consistent with the dextral chirality signs seen in the He II line at 304 angstroms prior to both eruptions. However, during the period between the eruptions, a region of positive twist grows and replaces the region of negative twist, and finally erupts. We interpret these observations in the light of models that predict that helicity cancellation can be an important factor in the triggering of flares and coronal mass ejections.

Prominences↗

NASA NTRS2018

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those "minifilament" eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50%, of the region's maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until the time that their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs several days later. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt before or when a threshold of roughly 50% of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30 percent and 50 percent of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions (Sterling et al. 2015), with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux (Panesar et al. 2016). Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50 percent, of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2018, ApJ, 864, 68.) Supported by NASA's Heliophysics Guest Investigators (HGI) Program and the MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center)/Hinode project.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

Aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Reduce the Climatic Risks of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

Sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions happen sporadically. If Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) were to be deployed, it is likely that explosive volcanic eruptions would happen during such a deployment. Here we use an ensemble of Earth System Model simulations to show how changing the injection strategy post-eruption could be used to reduce the climate risks of a large volcanic eruption; the risks are also modified even without any change to the strategy. For a medium-size eruption (10 Tg-SO 2 ) comparable to the SAI injection rate, the volcanic-induced cooling would be reduced if it occurs under SAI, especially if artificial sulfur dioxide injections were immediately suspended. Alternatively, suspending injection only in the eruption hemisphere and continuing injection in the opposite would reduce shifts in precipitation in the tropical belt and thus mitigate eruption-induced drought. Finally, we show that for eruptions much larger than the SAI deployment, changes in SAI strategy would have minimal effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗