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NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services – A White Paper

History has shown that our personal life is highly dependent on the technology that people have developed. A strategic scan of the aerospace environment at the beginning of the 21st century strongly suggests that the world might be approaching a new age of airpower—the era of electrified/hybrid aircraft propulsion. Undeniably, starting from the Montgolfier Brothers balloon flight in 1783, to the Wright Brothers piston engine flight in 1903, and the jet engine of the 1960s, or the space age of today, one can say that leaps in propulsion technology have marked the different ages of human flight. The technological advancements, brought at the beginning of 21st century by the revolution in data exchange, computational power, sensors, wireless communication, internet, and autonomy, contributed to the vision of this new age of propulsion we are approaching. Historically, conventional vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft have been equipped with propulsion units relying on complex internal combustion machines (turbines, piston engines, for example), and complex mechanical arrangements (gearboxes, shafts, variable pitch propeller). By contrast, electric VTOL aircraft (eVTOL)1 rely on simpler propulsion units (electric motors and in some cases fixed-pitch propellers). This promotes redundancy and improves tolerance to failures, in turn improving safety. The use of simpler electric propulsion units should also allow significant acquisition and operating cost reductions. Whether full-electric (relying solely on batteries) or hybrid-electric (relying on a combination of batteries, fuel-powered engines, and generators.), eVTOLs are also expected to generate less noise and air pollution than conventional aircraft with similar payloads. According to the 2019 Annual Review of IATA (International Air Transport Association) [ref.1], due to an expected increase in air transport traffic by 5% every year and a doubling of air transport passenger numbers to 8.2 billion by 2037 significant challenges are posed to the aviation industry. Furthermore, this report does not factor in the expected demand for short-range (intra-city) air transportation, which is in development and yet to be operational. The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner and an endeavor to develop more environmentally-friendly aircraft. eVTOL aircraft, either piloted or autonomous, is gathering considerable interest worldwide. Modern and novel full-electric or hybrid-electric eVTOL configurations enable a new paradigm shift in air transportation as the aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. While electric power has been used for decades, recent developments in mobile electric/hybrid propulsion coupled with advanced materials and autonomous systems may create the possibility to transition into the next age of air mobility propelled by electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft technology. Although eVTOL aircraft might seem like an incremental improvement or even a counterintuitive regression with regard to past VTOL development, it has in fact the potential to transform air mobility across a wide range of government applications. Previous transformations in aviation generated dramatic leaps in performance, but the cost was commensurate with performance, limiting quantity produced. This next age appears to take a different approach. Performance may not increase, but at this moment technology is poised for future urban mobility that will spawn commercial passenger drone services, that is, autonomous (pilotless) air taxis and thereby add a new dimension to the urban transportation mix of the future [ref. 2]. Advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology, and 5G communication networks will enable this fast new-growing market to become a reality. It is now time to envision the introduction of electric/hybrid eVTOL aircraft for Public Services2. We believe that in the next decades eVTOL aircraft will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement. This is due to several major factors. • First, with the increasing popularity of small, unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or drones, many companies today are focusing on the development of passenger UAVs designed to accommodate up to five passengers or equivalent cargo payload. Many such configurations are electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capabilities. Several of these projects have started a flight test program and many more are expected to be in the experimental and development phase in 2020. Such revolutionary vehicles could be in commercial operations by 2030. These eVTOL systems could be ready for selected Public Services missions even sooner. • Second, although these advanced eVTOL vehicles under development still need access to fuel (hybrid) and/or electric charging capability, they can take off and land from almost anywhere. Therefore, such vehicles, both manned and unmanned can be successfully integrated for the critical missions of the Public Services with extra deployment flexibilities. • Third, advancement in electric propulsion systems in the automotive industry together with NASA’s leading efforts in electrification of aircraft propulsion systems, FAA’s ongoing active eVTOL certification programs, and EASA’s proposed framework for the certification of electric/hybrid small category VTOL aircraft in Europe [ref. 3] will help accelerate industry electric propulsion system development and integration. • Finally, eVTOL vehicles could be deployed for Public Services sooner than air taxi or other commercial applications, since Public Services missions may be more easily approved based on specific mission criteria, localized airworthiness authority for public-use aircraft3, and are normally operating under centralized airspace management and control by the theater command. Moreover, public perception and acceptance are generally less of a concern when operations save lives and benefit the wider community. The prioritized introduction of eVTOL aircraft in Public Services is ambitious, but we believe it is achievable in the coming decades if fundamental enablers (people and technologies) are engaged in defining the objectives and needs of these missions. The revolution that is currently taking place in eVTOL aircraft represents an unprecedented opportunity to develop a safer, more affordable, more available and more environmentally friendly future of vertical flight. To ensure that these novel aircraft meet the future expectations of Public Services, it is essential to take a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach to their development, across engineering disciplines, policy-making, program management, business case development, manufacturing, and flight demonstrations. It should be noted that the term eVTOL (in the near term) used throughout this publication implies aircraft capable of transporting up to 5 persons which may or may not include a pilot if operated fully autonomously, assuming an average of 200 pounds (91 kg) per person or equivalent payload and a range up to 60 miles plus a suitable reserve. Hybrid or hydrogen powered eVTOLs would have greater range. For example, a “3-seat” eVTOL aircraft may only be able to carry two fully equipped firemen, and payload capacity is more relevant when used for the supply mission. Moreover, this paper concentrates on the “last-mile” solutions with a deployment time of no more than 6 hours. Although not specifically discussed in this document, it is understood that the future of Transformative Vertical Flight in general and Public Services, in particular, will also involve smaller UAVs that will undoubtedly play a crucial role in future aerial operations. For example, smaller unmanned aircraft may be used to dispatch medical supplies, portable filtration systems or perform the Search task of future Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. Close collaboration between the aircraft industry, the Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA), e.g., Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) certifiers, will help identify Public Services requirements, define expectations and limit development cost and timescales. Take the US Air Force Agility Prime as an example, the majority of the eVTOL application opportunities and mission elements identified are in line with the NASA TVF WG-4 objectives and use cases. Together, it forms a strong partnership to accelerate the development, certification, and practical deployment for public service missions. The US Air Force Agility Prime has been a collaboration partner on this white paper, and provided valuable input and recommendations. Most of the eVTOL public service mission elements discussed in this paper and additional use cases envisioned by the NASA TVF WG-4 team are shared by the Agility Prime program. The focus and efforts of the Agility Prime in product and system development, industry and government partnership, accelerated certifications as well as early test and deployment are totally in sync with the path forward recommended by this white paper. This kind of collaboration and partnership will help enable the practical use of the eVTOL for public service missions, benefit the eVTOL public acceptance, and accelerate the eVTOL industry revolution.

Johnny T. Doo↗

Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs

Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals that cure individuals infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), developing a vaccine is critically needed in achieving HCV elimination. HCV vaccine trials have been performed in populations with high incidence of new HCV infection such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Developing strategies of optimal recruitment of PWID for HCV vaccine trials could reduce sample size, follow-up costs and disparities in enrollment. We investigate trial recruitment informed by machine learning and evaluate a strategy for HCV vaccine trials termed PREDICTEE—Predictive Recruitment and Enrichment method balancing Demographics and Incidence for Clinical Trial Equity and Efficiency. PREDICTEE utilizes a survival analysis model applied to trial candidates, considering their demographic and injection characteristics to predict the candidate’s probability of HCV infection during the trial. The decision to recruit considers both the candidate’s predicted incidence and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race. We evaluated PREDICTEE using in silico methods, in which we first generated a synthetic candidate pool and their respective HCV infection events using HepCEP, a validated agent-based simulation model of HCV transmission among PWID in metropolitan Chicago. We then compared PREDICTEE to conventional recruitment of high-risk PWID who share drugs or injection equipment in terms of sample size and recruitment equity, with the latter measured by participation-to-prevalence ratio (PPR) across age, sex, and race. Comparing conventional recruitment to PREDICTEE found a reduction in sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 278 (95%: 264–294) with PREDICTEE, while also reducing screening requirements by 30%. Simultaneously, PPR increased from 0.475 (95%: 0.356–0.568) to 0.754 (95%: 0.685–0.834). Even when targeting a dissimilar maximally balanced population in which achieving recruitment equity would be more difficult, PREDICTEE is able to reduce sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 304 (95%: 288–322) while improving PPR to 0.807 (95%: 0.792–0.821). PREDICTEE presents a promising strategy for HCV clinical trial recruitment, achieving sample size reduction while improving recruitment equity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

Portable Multigas Monitors for International Space Station

The Environmental Health System (EHS) on International Space Station (ISS) includes portable instruments to measure various cabin gases that acutely impact crew health. These hand-held devices measure oxygen, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrogen chloride and hydrogen cyanide. The oxygen and carbon dioxide units also serve to back up key functions of the Major Constituent Analyzers. Wherever possible, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) devices are employed by EHS to save development and sustaining costs. COTS hardware designed for general terrestrial applications however has limitations such as no pressure compensation, limited life of the active sensor, calibration drift, battery issues, unpredictable vendor support and obsolescence. The EHS fleet (inflight and ground inventory) of instruments is both aging and dwindling in number. With the retirement of the US Space Shuttle, maintenance of on-orbit equipment becomes all the more difficult. A project is underway to search for gas monitoring technology that is highly reliable and stable for years. Tunable Diode Laser Spectroscopy (TDLS) seems to be the front-runner technology, but generally is not yet commercially available in portable form. NASA has fostered the development of TDLS through the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program. A number of gases of interest to the aerospace and submarine communities can be addressed by TDLS including the list mentioned above plus hydrogen fluoride, ammonia and water (humidity). There are several different forms of TDLS including photoacoustic and direct absorption spectroscopy using various multipass cell geometries. This paper describes the history of portable gas monitoring on NASA spacecraft and provides a status of the development of TDLS based instruments. Planned TDLS flight experiments on ISS could lead both to operational use on ISS and important roles in future Exploration spacecraft and habitats.

Mudgett, Paul D.↗

Assessment of the Performance of Hydrofluoroolefins, Hydrochlorofluoroolefins, and Halogen-Free Foam Blowing Agents in Cellular Plastic Foams

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has conducted a literature search to identify relevant information available on alternative materials and technologies that are proposed for foam blowing agents applications. For comparison, similar information was collected for available hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), hydrofluoroolefin (HFO), and hydrochlorofluoroolefins (HCFO) materials. The publicly available literature was analyzed and assessed for technical accuracy for each alternative, and a gap analysis was conducted to understand if additional studies are required to fully assess the viability of an alternative. In assessing these alternatives, this project focused on relevant performance and safety attributes. The performance attributes collected include insulation value per unit thickness, which impacts energy usage of buildings and insulated equipment such as refrigerators. We also assessed the impact of blowing agents on foam mechanical properties and flammability characteristics, and the ability of current processing equipment and techniques to utilize these alternatives. Diffusion of blowing agents through foam cells and its impact on foam aging was also examined. The applications covered in this study are spray foam, boardstock, panels, and appliances. Some of the most relevant findings are summarized below.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Variability in human body size

The range of variability found among homogeneous groups is described and illustrated. Those trends that show significantly marked differences between sexes and among a number of racial/ethnic groups are also presented. Causes of human-body size variability discussed include genetic endowment, aging, nutrition, protective garments, and occupation. The information is presented to aid design engineers of space flight hardware and equipment.

Annis, J. F.↗

INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Precision bone and muscle loss measurements by advanced, multiple projection DEXA (AMPDXA) techniques for spaceflight applications

An advanced, multiple projection, dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (AMPDXA) scanner system is under development. The AMPDXA is designed to make precision bone and muscle loss measurements necessary to determine the deleterious effects of microgravity on astronauts as well as develop countermeasures to stem their bone and muscle loss. To date, a full size test system has been developed to verify principles and the results of computer simulations. Results indicate that accurate predictions of bone mechanical properties can be determined from as few as three projections, while more projections are needed for a complete, three-dimensional reconstruction. c 2001. Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

Ultrasonic Studies of Composites Undergoing Thermal and Fatigue Loading

New composite materials possess attractive properties for use in advanced aircraft. A necessary requirement for their introduction into aeronautic use is an accurate understanding of their long term aging processes so that proper design criteria can be established. In order to understand those properties, these composites must be exposed to thermal and load cycles that are characteristic of flight conditions. Additionally, airline companies will require nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods that can be used in the field to assess the condition of these new materials as they age. As part of an effort to obtain the required information about new composites for aviation use, we are performing ultrasonic measurements both in the NDE laboratory and in the materials testing laboratory at NASA. The materials testing laboratory is equipped with environmental chambers mounted on load frames so that composite samples can be exposed to thermal and loading cycles representative of flight protocols. Applying both temperature and load simultaneously will help to highlight temperature and load interactions during the aging of these composite materials. This study reports on our initial ultrasonic attenuation results from thermoset and thermoplastic composite samples. Ultrasonic attenuation measurements have been used reliably to assess the effects of material degradation. For example, recently, researchers have shown that by using frequencies of ultrasound on the order of 24 MHz, they could obtain adequate contrast in the evaluation of thermal degradation in these composites. This paper will present data that shows results at a lower frequency range. In addition, we report results on the frequency dependence of attenuation as the slope of attenuation with respect to frequency, beta = delta alpha (f) / delta f. The slope of attenuation is an attractive parameter since it is quantitative, yet does not require interface corrections like conventional quantitative attenuation measurements. This is a consequence of the assumption that interface correction terms are frequently independent. Uncertainty in those corrections terms compromises the value of conventional quantitative attenuation data.

Madaras, Eric I.↗

Short-term hemodynamic performance of the mitral Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT pericardial valve. Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT Investigators

BACKGROUND: Although long-term durability data exist, little data are available concerning the hemodynamic performance of the Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT pericardial valve in the mitral position. METHODS: Sixty-nine patients who were implanted with mitral PERIMOUNT valves at seven international centers between January 1996 and February 1997 consented to participate in a short-term echocardiography follow-up. Echocardiographs were collected at a mean of 600+/-133 days after implantation (range, 110 to 889 days); all underwent blinded core lab analysis. RESULTS: At follow-up, peak gradients were 9.09+/-3.43 mm Hg (mean, 4.36+/-1.79 mm Hg) and varied inversely with valve size (p < 0.05). The effective orifice areas were 2.5+/-0.6 cm2 and tended to increase with valve size (p = 0.08). Trace mitral regurgitation (MR) was common (n = 48), 9 patients had mild MR, 1 had moderate MR, none had severe MR. All MR was central (n = 55) or indeterminate (n = 3). No paravalvular leaks were observed. Mitral regurgitation flow areas were 3.4+/-2.8 cm2 and were without significant volumes. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter study, these mitral valves are associated with trace, although physiologically insignificant, central MR. Despite known echocardiographic limitations, the PERIMOUNT mitral valves exhibit similar hemodynamics to other prosthetic valves.

Clinical Trial↗

Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

Celaya, Jose R.↗

A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Site Assessment Report for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chena Site Near Fairbanks, Alaska

This report presents an analysis of the requirements for charging station installation and electric vehicle operation at the US Army Corps of Engineers - Chena Site, located in a cold weather climate in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK. The report includes findings from a site visit, and a detailed electric vehicle (EV) charging site plan with cost estimates. Cost for three 50-ampere pedestal chargers located on the edge of the existing parking lot is estimated at $\$$53,100, and the cost of three 80-ampere chargers is estimated at $\$$89,400. The authors did not assess the cost of a heated garage. The USACE Chena site reaches extreme cold temperatures of -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit) and below in a typical winter, often for days on end. Considerations of operating EVs as well as electrical vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at this site can be applicable to other cold or extremely cold locations. Interviews with EV users in cold climates and a literature review indicated that EVs operate well but have significantly decreased range compared to 21 Degrees Celsius (70 Degrees Fahrenheit) operations. Some strategies such as prewarming the vehicle while it is plugged in and using heated seats and steering wheel instead of cabin heat, can improve cold weather performance. Storing the EV in a garage would mean the battery and cabin are automatically preheated, the battery would not age as rapidly as when the vehicle is stored outside, and problems with charging the vehicle are less likely. Lowest temperate-rated Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), as electric vehicle chargers are known as, are rated to -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit), and sometimes malfunction. No EVSE is rated to the temperatures that USACE Chena site experienced for more than a week in winter 2023-4, of -50 Degrees Celsius (-45 Degrees Fahrenheit) and which are typical for the area. If reliability is a must, entities may want to consider a heated garage to minimize potential problems with charging equipment. There is a companion technical report to this titled "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska" that examines the data on EV and EVSE cold-weather functionality in more detail. (Esparza, Truffer Moudra, and Hodge 2024).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Major to trace element imaging and analysis of iron age glasses using stage scanning in the analytical dual beam microscope (tandem)

Dark and clear silicate glasses formed during an iron age vitrification event ≈ 1500 years ago at the Broborg hillfort near Uppsala, Sweden have been analyzed using a scanning electron microscope equipped with a micro-X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) spectrometer. Correlated µXRF and electron beam-induced energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS) X-ray maps were collected via stage-scanning at constant velocity. This coupled procedure represents a new approach for the cultural heritage community to conduct analytical studies of archaeometric specimens composed of metal, ceramic, or mixed inorganic/organic materials, where major and trace element compositions are registered in space for areas up to the centimeter-length scale at micrometer-scale resolution. Overview images were used to select areas for EDS beam scan maps correlated with multispectral cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging and co-located quantitative EDS and μXRF point analysis. Fe, Ca, Mg, Ti, P, Mn, Zr, Zn, and Y are enriched in the dark glass, while Si, Al, K, Na, Ba, Sr, Rb, and Ga are enriched in the clear glass. Unmelted material is comprised predominately of quartz (SiO 2 ) along with trace apatite (Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 [Cl,OH]) and zircon (ZrSiO 4 ). Multivariate statistical analysis was used to measure the area fractions of high variance components while lower variance components represented phase mixtures. Differences between calculated melt viscosities for the glass compositions are consistent with field and laboratory observations. Coupled large area EDS and μXRF imaging shows significant promise for informed selection of higher spatial resolution and higher sensitivity follow-up studies, e.g., those performed using synchrotron analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prognostics of Power Electronics, Methods and Validation Experiments

Abstract Failure of electronic devices is a concern for future electric aircrafts that will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. As a result, investigation of precursors to failure in electronics and prediction of remaining life of electronic components is of key importance. DC-DC power converters are power electronics systems employed typically as sourcing elements for avionics equipment. Current research efforts in prognostics for these power systems focuses on the identification of failure mechanisms and the development of accelerated aging methodologies and systems to accelerate the aging process of test devices, while continuously measuring key electrical and thermal parameters. Preliminary model-based prognostics algorithms have been developed making use of empirical degradation models and physics-inspired degradation model with focus on key components like electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect-transistor). This paper presents current results on the development of validation methods for prognostics algorithms of power electrolytic capacitors. Particularly, in the use of accelerated aging systems for algorithm validation. Validation of prognostics algorithms present difficulties in practice due to the lack of run-to-failure experiments in deployed systems. By using accelerated experiments, we circumvent this problem in order to define initial validation activities.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.↗

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Three Aftermarket Gasoline Fuel Stabilizers in Preventing Gum Formation and Loss of Oxidation Stability

We note that fuel stabilizers have long been marketed to consumers to prevent oxidation and gum formation. In the past, gasoline storage for long periods of time was commonly limited to off-road equipment that was used infrequently. Cars and trucks that were driven regularly consumed the fuel in their tanks rapidly enough to avoid excessive fuel aging. However, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may be operated frequently without engine operation, raising the possibility that fuel may be stored in the tank for longer periods of time. Studies of the oxidation of gasoline have provided scientific understanding of the process, but there is little if any scientifically backed information aimed at aiding consumers in assessing the need to use an aftermarket fuel stabilizer if they anticipate lengthy periods of fuel storage in their fuel tank. This study was conceived to address this information gap by evaluating three aftermarket stabilizer products alongside baseline gasoline using sealed samples over a period of 12 months of aging. The aging was carried out under ambient temperature conditions with an additional series of samples kept in refrigerated storage. Analyses of vapor pressure, copper strip corrosion, oxidation stability, existent gums, and potential gums were carried out using standard ASTM tests to evaluate the samples as aging progressed. The results show that baseline gasoline remained compliant with relevant specifications to at least 12 months of aging without the use of aftermarket stabilizer additives. Use of two of the aftermarket additives increased the oxidation stability of the baseline gasoline, but this added stability was not necessary to comply with gasoline specifications.

42 ENGINEERING↗