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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Agent Control Planes for Quantum Networks: A Scalable Architecture for Autonomous Quantum Internet Management

Quantum networks are expected to enable distributed quantum computing, secure communication, and global entanglement distribution. However, operating such networks presents significant challenges, including stochastic quantum processes, fragile entanglement resources, dynamic topology, and cross-layer control requirements. Current quantum network control architectures largely rely on centralized or hierarchical controllers inspired by classical software-defined networking (SDN). While effective for small testbeds, these approaches face scalability, latency, and reliability limitations as quantum networks grow. This paper proposes a multi-agent control plane architecture for quantum networks. In this design, intelligent software agents operate at quantum nodes, repeaters, and orchestration layers, collectively managing entanglement generation, routing, purification, and scheduling. The distributed intelligence of the agent system allows the network to adapt dynamically to quantum hardware variability and environmental noise. We argue that multi-agent systems provide significant advantages over centralized control approaches, including scalability, resilience, local autonomy, and real-time adaptation. The paper discusses architectural design principles, agent coordination mechanisms, and research challenges in deploying multi-agent control planes for the emerging quantum Internet.

Alnajjar, Anees [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237101601)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis via CFD Simulation on the Impact of Graphite Anode Morphologies on the Discharge of a Lithium-Ion Battery

The morphology of electrode materials plays a crucial role in determining the performance of lithium-ion batteries. Traditional computational models often simplify graphite flakes as uniformly sized spheres, which limits their predictive accuracy. In this study, we present a computational workflow that overcomes these limitations by incorporating a more realistic representation of graphite morphologies. This workflow is designed to be flexible and reproducible, enabling efficient evaluation of electrochemical performance across diverse material structures. By exploring different graphite morphologies, our approach accelerates the optimization of material preparation techniques and processing conditions. Our findings reveal that incorporating greater morphological complexity leads to significant deviations from classical model predictions. Instead, our refined model offers a more accurate representation of battery discharge behavior, closely aligning with experimental data. This improvement underscores the importance of detailed morphological descriptions in advancing battery design and performance assessments. To promote accessibility and reproducibility, we provide the developed code for seamless integration with the COMSOL API, allowing researchers to implement and adapt it easily. This computational framework serves as a valuable tool for investigating the impact of graphite morphology on battery performance, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and experimental validation to enhance lithium-ion battery technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge gaps for neuromorphic ionic computing

BACKGROUND Neuromorphic computing, inspired by the human brain’s ability to process information efficiently, represents a transformative approach to computation. In this Review, we explore the emerging field of neuromorphic ionic computing, which leverages ionic conduction and coupling to mimic neural processes, and identify critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to realize its full potential. A central theme of the discussion is energy efficiency, a challenge that is both a limitation and an opportunity for this technology. Although complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS)–based neuromorphic technologies have made strides in scaling to billions of neurons and are increasingly applied in artificial intelligence and numerical computing, they remain orders of magnitude behind the human brain in terms of connectivity and energy efficiency. Neuromorphic ionic computing promises to overcome these limitations by leveraging the distinct architectural and operational principles of the brain. Our brains achieve this energy efficiency by combining several key features: using the same network elements to store and process information; using an incredibly complex and massively interconnected three-dimensional (3D) network of locally active elements that enables sparsity, robustness in the presence of noise, adaptation, and life-long learning; computing at comparatively low voltage and frequency; and last, taking advantage of a plethora of ions and small molecules as information carriers. Here, we propose that ionic computing systems can take advantage of similar features to achieve substantial gains in energy efficiency. ADVANCES Since the first reports of neuromorphic ionic behavior in nanofluidic channels, we have witnessed an explosion of reports that used ionic devices to produce synaptomimetic behaviors. However, achieving the goals of ionic computing requires not only implementation of much more sophisticated device functionality but also overcoming fundamental barriers in materials science, device architecture, and system integration. Current ionic devices, even those incorporating state-of-the-art materials, still suffer from limited functionality and stability, which restrict their performance and increase energy demands. Developing new materials with enhanced ionic properties is essential to overcome these limitations. Similarly, the design of neuromorphic devices must evolve to leverage the particular advantages of ionic processes. Existing architectures often follow a single-information-carrier logic of conventional electronics or are constructed of mesoscale fluidics, failing to capitalize on the energy-efficient mechanisms inherent to ionic systems or implement the multiple-information-carrier paradigm. Current neuromorphic chips focus on large-scale networks of analog memory elements based on mechanisms such as charge trap (flash), filamentary, phase change, or spin, which are built on top of a network of artificial CMOS neurons. Although such prototype networks have achieved impressive performance, it is difficult to envision how they can implement the key features such as massive connectivity, sophisticated plasticity, adaptability, sparsity, and “multichromatic” computing. Although small-scale devices have demonstrated promising results, integrating them, maintaining energy efficiency, and implementing temperature control as systems grow in complexity and size to computationally relevant scale remain major hurdles. Furthermore, interfacing neuromorphic ionic devices with existing computing technologies presents technical and conceptual challenges that will require innovative approaches that combine insights from neuroscience, materials science, and engineering. OUTLOOK Despite these challenges, the potential impact of neuromorphic ionic computing is profound with potential applications ranging from artificial intelligence to robotics and beyond. We also argue that neuromorphic ionic computing systems should not, at least in the beginning, compete with CMOS technologies but rather should focus on applications that require extreme energy efficiency with chemical and/or biological compatibility, such as biomedical applications (for example, brain-computer interfaces), environmental monitoring, and agricultural and food applications. Ultimately, this Review highlights the crucial role of interdisciplinary collaboration in advancing the field. Neuromorphic ionic computing is not merely a technological innovation; it represents a substantial step toward sustainable computation, aligning with the growing demand for energy-conscious solutions in a world that is increasingly reliant on data and computation.

Neuromorphic↗
DOE OSTI2024

An open-source framework for balancing computational speed and fidelity in production cost models

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models (PCMs) have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) that do not fully support stochastic simulation. Open-source PCMs represent a potential solution. They allow for multiple, simultaneous runs in high-performance computing environments and offer flexibility in model parameterization. Yet, developers must balance computational speed (i.e. runtime) with model fidelity (i.e. accuracy). In this paper, we present Grid Operations (GO), a framework for instantiating open-source, scale-adaptive PCMs. GO allows users to search across parameter spaces to identify model versions that appropriately balance computational speed and fidelity based on experimental needs and resource limits. Results provide generalizable insights on how to navigate the fidelity and computational speed tradeoff through parameter selection. We show that models with coarser network topologies can accurately mimic market operations, sometimes better than higher-resolution models. It is thus possible to conduct large simulation experiments that characterize operational risks related to climate and weather extremes while maintaining sufficient model accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Completely Positive, Simple, and Possibly Highly Accurate Approximation of the Redfield Equation

Here we present a Lindblad master equation that approximates the Redfield equation, a well known master equation derived from first principles, without significantly compromising the range of applicability of the Redfield equation. Instead of full-scale coarse-graining, this approximation only truncates terms in the Redfield equation that average out over a time-scale typical of the quantum system. The first step in this approximation is to properly renormalize the system Hamiltonian, to symmetrize the gains and losses of the state due to the environmental coupling. In the second step, we swap out an arithmetic mean of the spectral density with a geometric one, in these gains and losses, thereby restoring complete positivity. This completely positive approximation, GAME (geometric-arithmetic master equation), is adaptable between its time-independent, time-dependent, and Floquet form. In the exactly solvable, three-level, Jaynes-Cummings model, we find that the error of the approximate state is almost an order of magnitude lower than that obtained by solving the coarse-grained stochastic master equation. As a test-bed, we use a ferromagnetic Heisenberg spin-chain with long-range dipole-dipole coupling between up to 25-spins, and study the differences between various master equations. We find that GAME has the highest accuracy per computational resource.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological connectivity: a review and emerging strategies for integrating measurement, modeling, and management

This review synthesizes methods for measuring, modeling, and managing hydrologic connectivity, offering pathways to improve practices and address environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) and sustainability. As a key driver of water movement and nutrient cycling, hydrologic connectivity influences flood mitigation, water quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field-based methods (e.g., dye tracing), indirect measurements (e.g., runoff analysis), and remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR) often struggle to capture the complexity of catchment-scale interactions. Similarly, modeling approaches—including process-based and percolation theory-based models, graph theory, and entropy-based metrics—face limitations in fully representing these interconnected processes. Both modeling and measurement techniques are constrained by inadequate spatial and temporal coverage, high data demands, computational complexity, and difficulties in representing subsurface connectivity. Subsequently, we critique current management practices that prioritize isolated variables (e.g., streamflow, sediment transport) over system-wide strategies and emphasize the need for adaptive, connectivity-based approaches in water resource planning and restoration. Moving forward, we highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, technological innovations (e.g., AI-driven modeling, real-time monitoring), and integrated frameworks to improve connectivity measurement, modeling, and adaptive management to restore fragmented hydrologic networks. This integrated approach sets the stage for transformative water resource management, fostering proactive policy development and stakeholder engagement.

Dwivedi, Dipankar↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting macroevolutionary genotype–phenotype associations using error-corrected rates of protein convergence

On macroevolutionary timescales, extensive mutations and phylogenetic uncertainty mask the signals of genotype–phenotype associations underlying convergent evolution. To overcome this problem, we extended the widely used framework of non-synonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratios and developed the novel metric ω C , which measures the error-corrected convergence rate of protein evolution. While ω C distinguishes natural selection from genetic noise and phylogenetic errors in simulation and real examples, its accuracy allows an exploratory genome-wide search of adaptive molecular convergence without phenotypic hypothesis or candidate genes. Using gene expression data, we explored over 20 million branch combinations in vertebrate genes and identified the joint convergence of expression patterns and protein sequences with amino acid substitutions in functionally important sites, providing hypotheses on undiscovered phenotypes. We further extended our method with a heuristic algorithm to detect highly repetitive convergence among computationally non-trivial higher-order phylogenetic combinations. Our approach allows bidirectional searches for genotype–phenotype associations, even in lineages that diverged for hundreds of millions of years.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Data Processing for Hyperspectral Sensors on Small Platforms

Hyperspectral imaging is a very promising technology for nuclear proliferation detection. However, due to size and weight restrictions, small hyperspectral platforms such as satellites and small drones lack the on-board computing resources for accurate, real-time analysis of the enormous flow of data that a continuously operating hyperspectral sensor generates. This severely limits satellite systems, which can collect far more data than what they can telemeter, and hinders the ability of all platforms to adapt their missions on the fly in response to observations. This program addresses the hyperspectral data processing challenge through development of new, fast and accurate algorithms that produce data products in real time. The algorithms circumvent the major computational bottlenecks in existing processing streams, and would be incorporated in lightweight, power-efficient single-board computer systems. The toolkit of fast algorithms will be immediately useful in current and future hyperspectral systems being built by the Government and by private industry, including drone-based systems and satellite constellations that acquire timely global imagery.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

EvoNet: A phylogenomic and systems biology approach to identify genes underlying plant survival in marginal, low‐N soils

The DOE‐BER “EvoNet” project investigates the genetic and molecular basis of plant resilience in extreme environments. We do this by identifying key genes that enable “extreme survivor” species to thrive in the nitrogen-poor soils of Chile’s hyper-arid Atacama Desert. Our collections focus on 32 Atacama extremophile species, including seven grass species with potential biofuel applications. To identify genes-of-importance to survival we compared genomic and transcriptomic profiles of extremophile species that thrive in the Atacama to those of closely related “sister” species from nitrogen-rich arid and mesic regions of California. Deep RNA sequencing and de novo transcriptome assembly across these triplet species sets supported a phylogenomic framework for identifying positively selected genes associated with adaptive divergence. Our integrative analysis combined ecological and environmental data, metagenomics, evolutionary and systems biology, and metabolomics. This enabled us to create an unprecedented framework for systematically understanding how non-model plants have adapted to survive in extreme conditions. Our resulting database of positively selected ortholog groups in the extremophile plants offers promising targets for engineering crop and biofuel species with enhanced resilience to drought and extreme weather. Additionally, our newest dataset explores and exploits a complementary metabolomic approach. This new aspect provides innovative strategies to manipulate plant cell metabolism, further supporting efforts to improve agricultural productivity in the face of extreme climates. Importantly, our combined evolutionary- and metabolomic-based strategies focused on convergent patterns of adaptation, providing a genetic and metabolomic toolkit for improving crop and biofuel resilience across diverse plant species. Finally, our novel exploration of ecological and evolutionary dynamics delivered to the community a phylogenomic computational pipeline called “PhyloGeneious.” Our continued adaptations of this pipeline are publicly available to expedite evolutionary genomic research for future scientific discoveries. In total, our DOE-BER has provided genomic, metabolomic, and computational strategies to understand how extremophile plants provide evolutionary and physiological targets for improving agricultural and biofuel production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Adaptable and Comprehensive Project Assessment Tool

Most companies, agencies, and other real property owners require capital asset projects to pass some type of scrutiny before budgets and authority to expend funds for the design, construction and eventual operations are approved. This process typically involves management approval of key/critical decision(s) or a project’s passage through gates (or critical decisions). Cost, functionality, safety, and risk are just some of the factors typically considered during project assessment processes. This paper describes a tool that was developed and is used by the Department of Energy to facilitate this project assessment process. There are three versions of this tool for construction, decontamination and decommissioning (D&D), and environmental restoration/cleanup project types. The tool’s elements and associated criteria are tailored for each project type; although some elements, such as cost estimating and scheduling, are used in common. The tool is easy to use, requiring little or no training. It provides a common assessment tool for project self-appraisals and independent project reviews. It promotes efficiency and reduces disagreements and unnecessary effort. A comprehensive array of elements covers the gamut of cost, schedule, scope/technical, and safety/security ensuring that no important project attributes are overlooked. The tool is adaptable for use by any organization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRiSPPy: An advanced hydropower scheduling tool for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) plays a vital role in delivering reliable and cost-effective hydroelectric power to millions of customers across the western United States. The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) carries out WAPA’s mission in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas. Achieving this mission requires effective management of the Colorado River system, and depends on the use of advanced analytical tools and modeling methodologies. For many years, CRSP has relied on the Generation and Transmission Maximization Superlite (GTMax SL) model for its mid-term and long-term hydroscheduling needs. However, the evolving energy market, power system operations, environmental rules, and hydrology conditions, coupled with advancements in computational capabilities, have necessitated the development of a more modern and robust solution. This report introduces the Colorado River Storage Project Python-based (CRiSPPy) model, a new, advanced hydropower scheduling tool developed to address CRSP ever-evolving challenges. CRiSPPy represents a significant leap forward in our ability to model and optimize the operation of the Colorado River system. It incorporates state-of-the-art optimization algorithms, enhanced data management capabilities, and an advanced graphical user interface, providing WAPA CRSP personnel with unprecedented insights and decision-making support. This document details the development, capabilities, and implementation of CRiSPPy. It is intended to serve as a comprehensive resource for WAPA staff, stakeholders, and anyone interested in the future of hydropower scheduling in the Colorado River Basin. We are confident that CRiSPPy will enhance WAPA's mission while adapting to the challenges of a dynamic and increasingly complex environment. The version of CRiSPPy described in this report is the version 2.3. New versions of CRiSPPy will be developed as the tool keeps evolving to address CRSP challenges.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Information theory and machine learning illuminate large‐scale metabolomic responses of Brachypodium distachyon to environmental change

SUMMARY Plant responses to environmental change are mediated via changes in cellular metabolomes. However, <5% of signals obtained from liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC‐MS/MS) can be identified, limiting our understanding of how metabolomes change under biotic/abiotic stress. To address this challenge, we performed untargeted LC‐MS/MS of leaves, roots, and other organs of Brachypodium distachyon (Poaceae) under 17 organ–condition combinations, including copper deficiency, heat stress, low phosphate, and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis. We found that both leaf and root metabolomes were significantly affected by the growth medium. Leaf metabolomes were more diverse than root metabolomes, but the latter were more specialized and more responsive to environmental change. We found that 1 week of copper deficiency shielded the root, but not the leaf metabolome, from perturbation due to heat stress. Machine learning (ML)‐based analysis annotated approximately 81% of the fragmented peaks versus approximately 6% using spectral matches alone. We performed one of the most extensive validations of ML‐based peak annotations in plants using thousands of authentic standards, and analyzed approximately 37% of the annotated peaks based on these assessments. Analyzing responsiveness of each predicted metabolite class to environmental change revealed significant perturbations of glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and flavonoids. Co‐accumulation analysis further identified condition‐specific biomarkers. To make these results accessible, we developed a visualization platform on the Bio‐Analytic Resource for Plant Biology website ( https://bar.utoronto.ca/efp_brachypodium_metabolites/cgi‐bin/efpWeb.cgi ), where perturbed metabolite classes can be readily visualized. Overall, our study illustrates how emerging chemoinformatic methods can be applied to reveal novel insights into the dynamic plant metabolome and stress adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0730: Invoking Multilayer Networks to Develop a Paradigm for Security Science—Summary Report

Current approaches to securing high consequence facilities (HCF) and critical assets are linear and static and therefore struggle to adapt to emerging threats (e.g., unmanned aerial systems) and changing environmental conditions (e.g., decreasing operational control). The pace of change in technological, organizational, societal, and political dynamics necessitates a move toward codifying underlying scientific principles to better characterize the rich interactions observed between HCF security technology, infrastructure, digital assets, and human or organizational components. The promising results of Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 20-0373—“Developing a Resilient, Adaptive, and Systematic Paradigm for Security Analysis”—suggest that when compared to traditional security analysis, invoking multilayer network (MLN) modeling for HCF security system components captures unexpected failure cases and unanticipated interactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Modular System for Increasing Predictiveness for Extreme Climate Predictions

We know that climate change is poised to reshape our world, but we lack clear enough predictions about precisely how. The preponderance of these changes is associated with human activity, specifically the emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Problematically, projections of climate change continue to be marred by unacceptably large uncertainties which hamper informed decision-making and cost society a chance to adapt proactively and effectively. These uncertainties stem from deficiencies in predictions of future greenhouse gas emissions, but also from inaccuracies in the representation of the physical models used to predict the climate response to such emissions. The uncertainties in projections associated with the inaccurate representation of climate physics, chemistry and biology are similar to those that plagued the first global climate models developed fifty years ago, despite more than a factor 10 8 increase in computer performance. Our transformational question is then, how can the accuracy of climate projections be dramatically improved by applying recent advances in the computational and data sciences to train the models with the wealth of data being constantly collected about the ongoing changes in the climate system?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗