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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Forecasting/Assimilation/Emissions Estimation with WRF-Chem/DART: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Future Plans

Over the past ten years, we have been conducting research on regional ensemble atmospheric composition forecasting/data assimilation/emissions estimation with WRF-Chem/DART. WRF- Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). DART is an ensemble data assimilation system based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) with adaptive inflation, localization (physical and state space), and an optional non-Gaussian formulation of the EAKF. DART includes assimilation of meteorological and limited chemical observations. WRF-Chem/DART extends DART to include assimilation of: MOPITT CO; IASI CO and O3; MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2, and SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, and SO2, TES CO, CO2 (research mode), O3, NH3, and CH4 (research mode); CrIS CO, O3, NH3, CH4 (research mode), and PAN; SCIAMACHY NO2; GOME2a NO2; MLS O3 and HNO3; and proxy TEMPO O3, and NO2 satellite retrievals as raw retrievals or as ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs) for profile retrievals. WRF-Chem/DART also assimilates in situ atmospheric composition measurements and uses the ‘state augmentation method’ for emissions estimation. In our presentation, we will provide an overview of WRF-Chem/DART: • applications and results; • lessons learned from: (i) independent versus joint assimilation; (ii) total/partial column versus profile retrieval assimilation; (iii) joint in situ and retrieval assimilation; (iv) assimilation at grid resolutions ranging from 100 km to 4 km; (v) dynamic emissions estimation; and • future work related to wildfire emissions estimation and intercomparison of CMAQ (online)/JEDI and CMAQ (online and offline)/DART.

WRF-Chem/DART↗

NASA NTRS2017

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗

NASA NTRS2005

Single visit completeness optimization

The Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph (TPF-C) is a NASA pre-phase. A orbiting telescope with the goal of detecting and characterizing visible and near-IR light refelected from terrestrial planets. We use observational completeness, defined as the fraction of potentially observable planets that are detected, to determine how well the proposed telescope meets the mission goals. Single visit completeness is optimized by slecting the length of observation per target that maximizes the completeness for the ensemble of stars. In this memo we describe the integration time calculations and two approaches to single visit optimization.

optimization↗

NASA NTRS2008

An Overview of the NASA Spring/Summer 2008 Arctic Campaign - ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites)

ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) is a major NASA led airborne field campaign being performed in the spring and summer of 2008 at high latitudes (http://cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/arctas/). ARCTAS is a part of the International Polar Year program and its activities are closely coordinated with multiple U. S. (NOAA, DOE), Canadian, and European partners. Observational data from an ensemble of aircraft, surface, and satellite sensors are closely integrated with models of atmospheric chemistry and transport in this experiment. Principal NASA airborne platforms include a DC-8 for detailed atmospheric composition studies, a P-3 that focuses on aerosols and radiation, and a B-200 that is dedicated to remote sensing of aerosols. Satellite validation is a central activity in all these platforms and is mainly focused on CALIPSO, Aura, and Aqua satellites. Major ARCTAS themes are: (1) Long-range transport of pollution to the Arctic including arctic haze, tropospheric ozone, and persistent pollutants such as mercury; (2) Boreal forest fires and their implications for atmospheric composition and climate; (3) Aerosol radiative forcing from arctic haze, boreal fires, surface-deposited black carbon, and other perturbations; and (4) Chemical processes with focus on ozone, aerosols, mercury, and halogens. The spring deployment (April) is presently underway and is targeting plumes of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution and dust from Asia and North America, arctic haze, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and ozone photochemistry involving HOx and halogen radicals. The summer deployment (July) will target boreal forest fires and summertime photochemistry. The ARCTAS mission is providing a critical link to enhance the value of NASA satellite observations for Earth science. In this talk we will discuss the implementation of this campaign and some preliminary results.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective precipitation retrievals from space-borne dual frequency (Ka- and W-band) radar observations

The 2017 Decadal Survey highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions that led to the inclusion aerosols (A), clouds, convection, and precipitation (CCP) in the list of designated observables (DOs) to be pursued within the decade following the survey. Multiple observing system architectures were considered during the NASA A-CCP study, and dual frequency Ka-W band radars have been identified as components of the most likely architectures due to their ability to significantly contribute to the achievement of the science objectives and their synergy with other essential instruments. We present an algorithm to estimate convective precipitation from dual frequency, Ka- and W-band, observations applicable to the observing system architectures considered in the A-CCP study. The algorithm is based on the radar profiling algorithm used within the operational NASA GPM combined algorithm but features an additional module that makes the retrieval problem well-posed in cases of severe attenuation and potential loss of signal below the freezing level. The additional module is developed from GPM combined retrievals and consists of a procedure that generates an ensemble of potential retrievals consistent with the portions of the Ka-band and W-band observation profiles above the noise level. The ensemble solution is refined based on estimates of Path Integrated Attenuation (PIA) from the Surface Reference Technique (SRT) and radiometric observations.

Mircea Grecu↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗

NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Gridded Precipitation Products for Vietnam Basins using the Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall

The use of satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) have become increasingly prevalent as key inputs to provide regional rainfall for improving hydrological simulations in data–spare regions. This study introduces a new approach – Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CAFR) to evaluate six satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) for eleven basins with different sizes across Vietnam (2007–2015). These SPPs include the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final run Version 6 (GPM IMERGF V6), Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.2, Soil Moisture to Rain (SM2RAIN) – Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) V1.5, Asian Precipitation–Highly–Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) V1901, Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) V2.0, and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) – Climate Data Record (CDR) V1.0. With the proposed CAFR: (1) IMERGF is suggested to have the best performance overall, especially when simulating flood peaks; (2) SM2RAIN–ASCAT demonstrates the best skills in metrics related to the dry season; (3) For streamflow simulations, SPPs' performance is sensitive to basin size, with larger basins showing better performance skills. In this study, we demonstrate the capability of our proposed framework to better understand SPP applications in hydrological modeling.

Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CA↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the NASA/MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar results from San Gorgonio Pass, California

Two days during July of 1981 the NASA/MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar System (ADLS) was flown aboard the NASA/AMES Convair 990 on the east side of San Gorgonio Pass California, near Palm Springs, to measure and investigate the accelerated atmospheric wind field discharging from the pass. The vertical and horizontal extent of the fast moving atmospheric flow discharging from the San Gorgonio Pass were examined. Conventional ground measurements were also taken during the tests to assist in validating the ADLS results. This particular region is recognized as a high wind resource region and, as such, a knowledge of the horizontal and vertical extent of this flow was of interest for wind energy applications. The statistics of the atmospheric flow field itself as it discharges from the pass and then spreads out over the desert were also of scientific interests. This data provided the first spatial data for ensemble averaging of spatial correlations to compute longitudinal and lateral integral length scales in the longitudinal and lateral directions for both components.

Cliff, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Sea Ice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗

NASA NTRS1972

Resonant diffusion in the presence of strong plasma turbulence.

The diffusion equation which describes the evolution of the average one-particle distribution function for an ensemble of strongly turbulent plasmas is derived. The diffusion tensor is a time integral of the autocorrelation tensor of the fluctuations as observed by particles moving along statistically distributed orbits. These orbits contain the effects of fluctuations and thus differ from those encountered in weak turbulence theory. Two statistical orbit effects quadratic in the strength of the fluctuations affect the magnitude of the diffusion: (a) modification of the ensemble average orbits by the fluctuations, and (b) statistical dispersion in particle orbits about the average. The plasma trajectory equations are used to relate each to the diffusion tensor itself when the turbulence is electrostatic. The diffusion tensor is explicitly evaluated for a strongly turbulent unmagnetized plasma.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS1981

The C IV 1550 profile in type 1 Seyfert galaxies

The paper presents C IV 1550 A line profiles for the type 1 Seyfert galaxies NGC 5548, Mrk 509, NGC 7469, and MCG-2-58-22. Several line broadening mechanisms and theoretical line profiles are considered, and random motion of discrete clouds is ruled out. A spherical ensemble of discrete clouds with steady outflow or inflow produces a logarithmic profile, but does not account for the highly extended wings. A spherical ensemble with ballistic outflow produces a profile of the first exponential integral function, and fits the observed profile to the continuum level. Although C IV profiles favor the ballistic model, both Mrk 509 and NGC 7469 have significant asymmetry, and Balmer lines with a higher optical depth show higher asymmetry and redshift than all four galaxies.

Wu, C.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

ERPS to Monitor Non-conscious Mentation

Event Related Brain Potentials (or ERPs) are extracted from the EEG that can be recorded between a pair of electrodes placed on a person's scalp. The EEG is recorded as a continual fluctuation in voltage. It is the results of the integration of the potential fields generated by a multitude of neuronal ensembles that are active as the brain goes about its business. Within this ongoing signal it is possible to distinguish voltage fluctuations that are triggered in neural structures by the occurrence of specific events. This activity, evoked as it is by an external event, is known as the Evoked, or Event Related, Potential. The ERPs provide a unique opportunity to monitor non-conscious mentation. The inferences that can be based on ERP data are described and the limits of these inferences are emphasized. This, however, will not be an exhaustive review of the use of ERPs in Engineering Psychology. The application, its scope, and its limitations will be illustrated by means of one example. This example is preceded by a brief technical introduction to the methodology used in the study of ERPs. The manner in which ERPs are used to study cognition is described.

Donchin, E.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Resonant diffusion in the presence of strong plasma turbulence

The diffusion equation which describes the evolution of the average one particle distribution function for an ensemble of strongly turbulent plasmas is derived. The diffusion tensor is a time integral of the autocorrelation tensor of the fluctuations as observed by particles moving along statistically distributed orbits. These orbits contain the effects of fluctuations and thus differ from those encountered in weak turbulence theory. The plasma trajectory equations are used to relate each to the diffusion tensor itself when the turbulence is electrostatic. The diffusion tensor is explicity evaluated for a strongly turbulent unmagnetized plasma.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes

The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.

Levin, Simon A.↗