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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological inference from an emulator based halo model. II. Joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing and galaxy clustering from HSC-Y1 and SDSS

Here, we present high-fidelity cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing (ΔΣ) and projected galaxy clustering (w p ) measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Year-1 (HSC-Y1) data and spectroscopic Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy catalogs in the redshift range 0.15 < z < 0.7. We define luminosity-limited samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p in three spectroscopic redshift bins, and as the lens samples for ΔΣ. For the ΔΣ measurements, we select a single sample of 4×10 6 source galaxies over 140 deg 2 from HSC-Y1 with photometric redshifts (photo z) greater than 0.75, enabling a better handle of photo- z errors by comparing the ΔΣ amplitudes for the three lens redshift bins. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y1 data enable significant detections of the ΔΣ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N ~ 15 in the range 3 ≤ R/[h –1 Mpc] ≤ 30 for the three lens samples, despite the small area coverage. For cosmological parameter inference, we use an input galaxy-halo connection model built on the dark emulator package (which uses an ensemble set of high-resolution N-body simulations and enables fast, accurate computation of the clustering observables) with a halo occupation distribution that includes nuisance parameters to marginalize over modeling uncertainties. We model the ΔΣ and wp measurements on scales from R≃3 and 2h –1 Mpc , respectively, up to 30 h –1 Mpc (therefore excluding the baryon acoustic oscillations information) assuming a flat Λ CDM cosmology, marginalizing over about 20 nuisance parameters and demonstrating the robustness of our results to them. With various tests using mock catalogs described in Miyatake et al. [preceding paper, Phys. Rev. D 106, 083519 (2022)], we show that any bias in the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 due to uncertainties in the galaxy-halo connection is less than ~ 50 % of the statistical uncertainty of S 8 , unless the assembly biaseffect is unexpectedly large. Our best-fit models have S 8 = 0.795$_{-0.042}^{+0.049}$ (mode and 68% credible interval) for the flat Λ CDM model; we find tighter constraints on the quantity S 8 (α = 0.17)≡σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.17 = 0.745$_{-0.031}^{+0.039}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrocatalytic Hydrogen Evolution at Full Atomic Utilization over ITO-Supported Sub-nano-Pt n Clusters: High, Size-Dependent Activity Controlled by Fluxional Pt Hydride Species

A combination of density functional theory (DFT) and experiments with atomically size-selected Pt n clusters deposited on indium-tin oxide (ITO) electrodes was used to examine the effects of applied potential and Pt n size on the electrocatalytic activity of Pt n (n = 1, 4, 7, 8) for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). Activity is found to be negligible for isolated Pt atoms on ITO, increasing rapidly with Pt n size, such that Pt 7 /ITO and Pt 8 /ITO have roughly double the activity per Pt atom compared to atoms in the surface layer of polycrystalline Pt. Both DFT and experiment find that hydrogen under-potential deposition (H upd ) results in Pt n /ITO (n = 4, 7, 8) adsorbing ~2 H atoms/Pt atom at the HER threshold potential, equal to ca. double the Hupd observed for Pt bulk or nanoparticles. Here, the cluster catalysts under electrocatalytic conditions are hence best described as a Pt hydride compound, significantly departing from a metallic Pt cluster. The exception is Pt 1 /ITO, where H adsorption at the HER threshold potential is energetically unfavorable. Theory combines global optimization with grand canonical approaches for the influence of potential, uncovering that several metastable structures contribute to HER, changing with the applied potential. It is hence critical to include reactions of the ensemble of energetically accessible Pt n H x /ITO structures to correctly predict the activity vs. Pt n size and applied potential. For the small clusters, spillover of H ads from the clusters to the ITO support is significant, resulting in a competing channel for loss of H ads , particularly at slow potential scan rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Modeling of Bromide and Iodide Hydration with Data-Driven Many-Body Potentials

Ion–water interactions play a central role in determining the properties of aqueous systems in a wide range of environments. However, a quantitative understanding of how the hydration properties of ions evolve from small aqueous clusters to bulk solutions and interfaces remains elusive. Here, we introduce the second generation of data-driven many-body energy (MBnrg) potential energy functions (PEFs) representing bromide–water and iodide–water interactions. The MB-nrg PEFs use permutationally invariant polynomials to reproduce two-body and three-body energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory, and implicitly represent all higher-body energies using classical many-body polarization. Further, a systematic analysis of the hydration structure of small Br - (H 2 O) n and I - (H 2 O) n clusters demonstrates that the MBnrg PEFs predict interaction energies in quantitative agreement with “gold standard” coupled cluster reference values. Importantly, when used in molecular dynamics simulations carried out in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble for single bromide and iodide ions in liquid water, the MB-nrg PEFs predict extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra that accurately reproduce the experimental spectra, which thus allows for characterizing the hydration structure of the two ions with high level of confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supercomputer-Based Ensemble Docking Drug Discovery Pipeline with Application to Covid-19

In this work, we present a supercomputer-driven pipeline for in silico drug discovery using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) and ensemble docking. Ensemble docking makes use of MD results by docking compound databases into representative protein binding-site conformations, thus taking into account the dynamic properties of the binding sites. We also describe preliminary results obtained for 24 systems involving eight proteins of the proteome of SARS-CoV-2. The MD involves temperature replica exchange enhanced sampling, making use of massively parallel supercomputing to quickly sample the configurational space of protein drug targets. Using the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, more than 1 ms of enhanced sampling MD can be generated per day. We have ensemble docked repurposing databases to 10 configurations of each of the 24 SARS-CoV-2 systems using AutoDock Vina. Comparison to experiment demonstrates remarkably high hit rates for the top scoring tranches of compounds identified by our ensemble approach. We also demonstrate that, using Autodock-GPU on Summit, it is possible to perform exhaustive docking of one billion compounds in under 24 h. Finally, we discuss preliminary results and planned improvements to the pipeline, including the use of quantum mechanical (QM), machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) methods to cluster MD trajectories and rescore docking poses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Glueballs at physical pion mass

Glueballs are investigated through gluonic operators on two $ N_f=2+1 $ RBC/UKQCD gauge ensembles at the physical pion mass. The statistical errors of glueball correlation functions are considerably reduced through the cluster decomposition error reduction (CDER) method. The Bethe-Salpeter wave functions are obtained for the scalar, tensor, and pseudoscalar glueballs by using spatially extended glueball operators defined through the gauge potential $ A_\mu(x) $ in the Coulomb gauge. These wave functions exhibit similar features of non-relativistic two-gluon systems and are used to optimize the signals of the related correlation functions at the early time regions, where the ground state masses are extracted. These masses are close to those from the quenched approximation and indicate the possible existence of glueballs at the physical point. The resonance feature of glueballs and the mixing with conventional mesons and multi-hadron systems should be considered in a more systematic lattice study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec)

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec) machine learning algorithms are used to classify and cluster threats so that an appropriate response can be initiated as a mitigation strategy. The package includes an ensemble of machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines, naïve bayes, logistic regression, and random forest that evolve with the data to recognize anomalous behavior at the host and network levels. Inputs into the machine learning algorithms include end host system calls, system utilization, packet captures, and syslog messages. The machine learning algorithms can be retrained based on user defined intervals or on the number of packets received. ADDSEC's threat responses include Internet Protocol (IP) Address randomization, application port number randomization, and application library randomization. The IP randomization implementation is built on top of a Software Defined Networking (SDN) framework. The SDN controller installs flows on each of the SDN switches with randomized source and destination IP addresses. The application port numbers are randomized using iptables. The application library randomization is created with a LLVM compiler. All randomization schemes are transparent to the endpoints on the network. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-3379 O

Cox, RebeccaE.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dial-A-Cluster User Manual

The Dial-A-Cluster (DAC) model allows interactive visualization of multivariate time series data. A multivariate time series dataset consists of an ensemble of data points, where each data point consists of a set of time series curves. The example of a DAC dataset used in this guide is a collection of 100 cities in the United States, where each city collects a year's worth of weather data, including daily temperature, humidity, and wind speed measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated machine learning-molecular dynamics framework for electrolyte property prediction

Electrochemical stability windows determine the operating range of battery electrolytes, yet accurate prediction remains challenging because stability emerges from statistical ensembles of local solvation environments rather than single ground-state molecular structures. Traditional density functional theory calculations on energy-minimized clusters cannot capture the thermal variations in local coordination environments and geometries that govern decomposition, while SMILES-based machine learning methods lack explicit representation of three-dimensional solvation structure and ion pairing. Here, we introduce a structure-aware machine learning framework that predicts frontier orbital energies (HOMO and LUMO) directly from molecular dynamics-sampled solvation configurations, achieving sub-0.6 eV accuracy at computational costs 3–4 orders of magnitude lower than first-principles methods. Across twelve representative battery electrolytes, we demonstrate that solvent-separated and contact ion pairs exhibit strong size- and local chemistry dependent electronic stability, with variations in coordination shifts of HOMO or LUMO level by 2–3 eV, and that extended solvation structure and partially desolvated environment further modulate stability by up to 3 eV. By encoding the statistical nature of electrochemical failure through ensemble sampling of explicit solvation geometries, our approach enables high-throughput screening and rational design of next-generation battery electrolytes with mechanistic understanding of structure–property relationships.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermofield Theory for Finite-Temperature Electronic Structure

Wave function methods have offered a robust, systematically improvable means to study ground-state properties in quantum many-body systems. Theories like coupled cluster and their derivatives provide highly accurate approximations to the energy landscape at a reasonable computational cost. Analogues of such methods to study thermal properties, though highly desirable, have been lacking because evaluating thermal properties involve a trace over the entire Hilbert space, which is a formidable task. Besides, excited-state theories are generally not as well studied as ground-state ones. In this mini-review, we present an overview of a finite-temperature wave function formalism based on thermofield dynamics to overcome these difficulties. Thermofield dynamics allows us to map the equilibrium thermal density matrix to a pure state, i.e., a single wave function, albeit in an expanded Hilbert space. Ensemble averages become expectation values over this so-called thermal state. Around this thermal state, we have developed a procedure to generalize ground-state wave function theories to finite temperatures. As explicit examples, we highlight formulations of mean-field, configuration interaction, and coupled cluster theories for thermal properties of Fermions in the grand-canonical ensemble. To assess the quality of these approximations, we also show benchmark studies for the one-dimensional Hubbard model, while comparing against exact results. We will see that the thermal methods perform similarly to their ground-state counterparts, while merely adding a prefactor to the asymptotic computational cost. Furthermore, they also inherit all the properties, good or bad, from the ground-state methods, signifying the robustness of our formalism and the scope for future development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2021

A theoretical calculation of stacking fault energy of Ni alloys: The effects of temperature and composition

Combining cluster expansion (CE) method with one dimensional axial Ising model, this work investigated the effects of alloying elements and configurational variations due to temperature on the stacking fault energy (SFE) of FCC Ni binary alloys. Ensembles of large numbers of atomistic structures, each with more than ~400 atoms, were generated to consider sufficient long-range chemical disorder and temperature effects due to configurational entropy. Here, a Monte Carlo Metropolis algorithm was used to generate these structures, whose energies were then evaluated based on the effective cluster interactions obtained from CE. As a baseline, this work had shown the SFE of pure Ni and Al to be 127 mJ/m 2 and 137 mJ/m 2 , respectively, which agreed with the experimental values of 125 mJ/m 2 and 150 mJ/m 2 reported in the literature. Additions of Al, Ti, Cr and Co to pure Ni were found to decrease the SFE to different extents. Although temperature does not strongly influence the SFE of the FCC Ni-Al and Ni-Cr binary alloys, it can lead to significant changes to the SFE of the FCC Ni-Ti and Ni-Co alloys. While effects of temperature and composition on SFE observed in this work were calculated from binary Ni alloys, the general trends are nonetheless expected to be valid in the γ phase of multicomponent Ni superalloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonperturbatively renormalized nucleon gluon momentum fraction in the continuum limit of N f = 2 + 1 + 1 lattice QCD

We present the nonperturbatively renormalized nucleon gluon momentum fraction using ensembles with 2+1+1 flavors of highly improved staggered quarks (HISQ), generated by the MILC Collaboration. The calculation is done using clover fermions for the valence action with three pion masses, 220, 310, and 690 MeV, and three lattice spacings, 0.09, 0.12, and 0.15 fm. The renormalization is done using RI/MOM nonperturbative renormalization and using cluster-decomposition error reduction (CDER) to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the renormalization constant. We find the CDER technique is particularly important to improve the signal at the finer lattice ensembles where the lattice volume is larger. We extrapolate the gluon momentum fraction to the continuum-physical limit and obtain $\langle{x}\rangle$ g = 0.502⁢(53) stat+NPR ⁢(50) mixing in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 2 GeV, where first error includes the statistical error and uncertainties in nonperturbative renormalization, while the latter systematic error accounts for ignoring quark mixing. Our gluon momentum fraction is consistent with other recent lattice-QCD results at physical pion mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

libEnsemble: A complete Python toolkit for dynamic ensembles of calculations

Almost all science and engineering applications eventually stop scaling: their runtime no longer decreases as available computational resources increase. Therefore, many applications will struggle to efficiently use emerging extreme-scale high-performance, parallel, and distributed systems. libEnsemble is a complete Python toolkit and workflow system for intelligently driving ensembles of experiments or simulations at massive scales. It enables and encourages multidisciplinary design, decision, and inference studies portably running on laptops, clusters, and supercomputers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A clustering-based approach to ocean model–data comparison around Antarctica

The Antarctic Continental Shelf seas (ACSS) are a critical, rapidly changing element of the Earth system. Analyses of global-scale general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including those available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), can help reveal the origins of observed changes and predict the future evolution of the ACSS. However, an evaluation of ACSS hydrography in GCMs is vital: previous CMIP ensembles exhibit substantial mean-state biases (reflecting, for example, misplaced water masses) with a wide inter-model spread. Because the ACSS are also a sparely sampled region, grid-point-based model assessments are of limited value. Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of clustering tools for identifying hydrographic regimes that are common to different source fields (model or data), while allowing for biases in other metrics (e.g., water mass core properties) and shifts in region boundaries. We apply K-means clustering to hydrographic metrics based on the stratification from one GCM (Community Earth System Model version 2; CESM2) and one observation-based product (World Ocean Atlas 2018; WOA), focusing on the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Ross seas. When applied to WOA temperature and salinity profiles, clustering identifies “primary” and “mixed” regimes that have physically interpretable bases. For example, meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea and a region of high-salinity shelf water formation in the southwestern Ross Sea emerge naturally from the algorithm. Both regions also exhibit clearly differentiated inner- and outer-shelf regimes. The same analysis applied to CESM2 demonstrates that, although mean-state model biases in water mass T–S characteristics can be substantial, using a clustering approach highlights that the relative differences between regimes and the locations where each regime dominates are well represented in the model. CESM2 is generally fresher and warmer than WOA and has a limited fresh-water-enriched coastal regimes. Given the sparsity of observations of the ACSS, this technique is a promising tool for the evaluation of a larger model ensemble (e.g., CMIP6) on a circum-Antarctic basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗