Distance Estimates to Evolved Stars Using Infrared Emission and Verification and Validation of the Plasma Code EMPIRE.
Abstract not provided.
Medina, Brandon↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “empirical validation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for early DESI data
ABSTRACT We present an extended validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on simulated catalogs representative of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) data collected during the initial 2 months of operations of the Stage-IV ground-based Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We run the pipeline on multiple effective Zel’dovich (EZ) mock galaxy catalogs with the corresponding cuts applied and compare the results with the mock sample covariance to assess the accuracy and its fluctuations. We propose an extension of the previously developed formalism for catalogs processed with standard reconstruction algorithms. We consider methods for comparing covariance matrices in detail, highlighting their interpretation and statistical properties caused by sample variance, in particular, non-trivial expectation values of certain metrics even when the external covariance estimate is perfect. With improved mocks and validation techniques, we confirm a good agreement between our predictions and sample covariance. This allows one to generate covariance matrices for comparable data sets without the need to create numerous mock galaxy catalogs with matching clustering, only requiring 2PCF measurements from the data itself. The code used in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/oliverphilcox/RascalC.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing
To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Film condensation with high heat fluxes and scaled experiments using pure steam for reactor containment cooling
Condensation tests were performed using a newly developed test facility for scaling the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) to a small modular reactor (SMR). The PCCS of the SMR plays a pivotal role in ensuring greater safety, reliability, and compactness than what is afforded by traditional reactors. Therefore, a well-designed PCCS is essential to SMRs. However, previous studies and test data were unsuitable for scaling, due to high variation in the test geometry and operating conditions. This study intends to close this research gap by using a novel designed scaled test facility consisting of vertical condensing test sections featuring 1-, 2-, and 4-inch-diameter condensing tubes with annular water cooling, and by applying superheated and saturated steam with different steam mass flow ranges of 5–25 g/s. Further, the primary test data, including axial temperatures, mass flow rates, and pressures, were used in conjunction with a standard data reduction method to estimate critical parameters such as heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients, and condensation rates. These scaled test data would support improving empirical correlations and validating condensation models to identify scaling distortion for SMR PCCSs.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Effects of Temperature on Flow Fouling of Smooth and Nonwetting Surfaces
Mineral fouling (scaling) of heat transfer surfaces is a pervasive problem in heat exchangers, chemical reactors, and other equipment in energy, environmental, and process industrial applications. Many of the applications involve dynamic flow of fluids with the impurity minerals and, furthermore, operate at elevated temperature. Strategies to mitigate fouling under these conditions are of much value in industrial applications. This paper presents a comparative study of temperature-dependent mineral fouling deposition on smooth surfaces and nonwetting superhydrophobic and lubricant-infused surfaces under dynamic flow conditions. The surfaces are represented in a unified manner using the viscosity ratio of the infused material within the porous asperities on a surface to that of the flowing fluid such that the spectrum of surfaces from superhydrophobic to smooth is captured by the range of viscosity ratios from 0 to ∞. Using a forced convection experimental setup, deposition of calcium sulfate on the surfaces is quantified in terms of asymptotic fouling resistance over a range of temperature, Reynolds number, and mineral foulant supersaturation. Through a systematic set of accelerated fouling experiments, an empirical relationship for the asymptotic fouling resistance is developed in terms of Reynolds number, foulant concentration, temperature, and surface type. The empirical model is validated with a comprehensive set of experimental data from this study as well as from the literature. Optimum nonwetting surface designs for minimizing fouling resistance compared to conventional smooth surfaces are developed as a function of temperature. The results of the study offer insight into the temperature-dependent fouling of surfaces under flow conditions and a rational design of fouling-resistant nonwetting surfaces that can be readily translated to practice.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Anomalous Absorption by the Two-Plasmon Decay Instability
Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of directly driven fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility predict absorption accurately when targets are driven at low overlapped laser intensity. Discrepancies appear at increased intensity, however, with higher-than-expected laser absorption on target. Strong correlations with signatures of the two-plasmon decay (TPD) instability—including half-harmonic and hard-x-ray emission—indicate that TPD is responsible for this anomalous absorption. Scattered light data suggest that up to ≈ 30 % of the laser power reaching quarter-critical density can be absorbed locally when the TPD threshold is exceeded. A scaling of absorption versus TPD threshold parameter was empirically determined and validated using the laser–plasma simulation environment code.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Smart Preprocessing & Robust Integration Emulator
To achieve the desired particle size of biomass feedstocks during preprocessing for trouble-free handling and conversion to produce biofuels and bioproducts, the raw materials must undergo a crucial milling process. The particle size of biomass plays a critical role in subsequent biofuel manufacturing, where a larger area-to-volume ratio facilitates efficient synthesis while balancing the impact of moisture on biomass storage. To optimize biofuel production efficiency and overcome these challenges, it is imperative to accurately predict the particle size distribution (PSD) of the biomass in the design of efficient preprocessing systems. The population balance model (PBM), upon empirical calibration and validation, can provide rapid prediction of post-milling PSD of granular biomass. However, PSD has limitations related to mass conservation and the absence of moisture considerations. To overcome these drawbacks, a deep learning model called the enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) is implemented in the code. This model not only retains the capabilities of the PBM in handling complex mapping functions but also incorporates additional factors influencing the system. By considering various experimental conditions such as sieve size and moisture content, the trained DNO+ model can effectively predict the PSD after milling for any given feed PSD. To further reduce the reliance on experimental data, the PBM is integrated into the DNO+ model, resulting in a physics-informed DNO+ (PIDNO+). The PIDNO+ model addresses the non-conservation of quality exhibited by the PBM while inheriting the advantages of the DNO+ model in considering multiple influencing factors. Moreover, the PIDNO+ model significantly reduces the amount of data required for model training. Both deep learning models, i.e., DNO+ and PIDNO+, are excellent in predictive performance, offering swift and accurate machine learning-based predictions. The use of this code that contains these models will assist in guiding the proper milling equipment selection and operational conditions to achieve the desired biomass particle sizes, ensuring the efficiency of subsequent biofuel and bioproduct production processes.
Xia, Yidong [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
Control-Oriented Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries
Battery management systems (BMSs), which monitor and optimize performance while ensuring safety, require control-oriented models, i.e., models tailored to the design and implementation of estimation and control algorithms. Physics-based electrochemical models describe detailed battery phenomena, but are too computationally intensive for use in estimation and control applications. Single particle models (SPMs), which retain some of the physics of electrochemical models, are often used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient; however, they are only valid over very low frequency ranges and C-rates. Empirical equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are also used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient and can describe battery behavior over wide frequency ranges; however, they provide no physical understanding of the battery and, therefore, have limited applicability. Further, fractional order terms (e.g., Warburg impedances) are often employed, making the models unwieldy for use in the time domain. This work provides a control-oriented battery model that combines the benefits of SPM and ECM models, while overcoming their limitations. The proposed model incorporates some of the battery physics found in electrochemical models, can easily be used in both the time and frequency domains, and describes battery behavior over its entire frequency range. A linearized single particle model, which incorporates key electrochemical parameters, is used for modeling battery physics at very low frequencies. For low frequencies, integer-order linear systems are used to approximate diffusion physics described by Warburg impedances, and high frequency behavior is modeled by the double layer capacitance effect. The proposed battery model is more computationally efficient than full electrochemical models since it does not require the solution of PDEs, is accurate for a wider frequency range than the SPM considered in this paper, and does not suffer from the unwieldiness and limited applicability of empirical ECMs. Finally, the model is validated in the time and frequency domains via a comparison to pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) model simulations and experimental data.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Audible Noise Modeling of Hydrogen Release Sonic Hazards in Rail Maintenance Facilities
This study implemented validated literature models to predict audible noise due to pressurized gaseous hydrogen releases through a thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) and attached vent stack. A literature survey discovered limited hydrogen-specific noise prediction models validated by experiments. However, empirical noise prediction models for air flowing through pipes and valves were identified. These empirical models were used to predict noise levels and compared against hydrogen noise data reported in two studies: one experimental study of noise from hydrogen leaking through a pipe and another which modeled hydrogen flowing through a solenoid valve during a fuel cell vehicle refueling. The valve flow model was then applied to predict noise for hydrogen releases through a TPRD. Results show that hydrogen releases through a TPRD can produce harmful noise levels varying from 134 to 150 dB. However, further model validation and additional experimental data are needed to improve prediction confidence and accuracy.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Dissertation Proposal: Innovations in Pulsed Power and Plasma Science Theory Simulation and Experiment
Pulsed power and plasma physics are topics of great study at both Sandia National Laboratories (SNL or Sandia) and the University of New Mexico (UNM). The goal of this research is to further knowledge and understanding of these fields using the resources of both SNL and UNM in three ways. The first way is through the comprehension, application, and testing of theory. Reading and analytically deriving theoretical solutions of problems both real-world and simplified will allow for a fresh perspective and the furthering of the theory. One such theory is Ottinger's generalized theory for voltage measurement in magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs). By working through the math, a deeper understanding of the theory is gained from which one may add more physically accurate and/or more detailed physics into the theory. Additionally, understanding the theory lays a good foundation from which one can analyze, test, and compare results to the theory in the following two ways that will advance the fields of pulsed power and plasma physics. The second way is through the modeling and simulation of real-world and simplified problems that utilize and test the afore mentioned theories. Theory can be applied to a simulation domain by using the unstructured time-domain electromagnetic (UTDEM) codes EMPHASIS and EMPIRE as well as the physical modeling software CUBIT, all of which were developed at SNL. Problems such as the modeling and design of the extended MITL on HERMES III, the understanding of space-charge-limited emission from vacuum cathodes, and the interaction between a relativistic electron beam and an ideal gas can all be modeled, simulated, and analyzed with this set of codes. Here the advantage is three-fold. Firstly, theory that describes our understanding of these problems can be put to the test and advanced through iterative simulation and analysis. Secondly, the understanding of these problems will have a positive impact on national security through the advancement of the technological capability of the United States of America. Thirdly, and not unrelated to the prior advantage, is the validation and verification of EMPIRE and EMPHASIS. This segues into the third way, which is through experiment and the comparison of experiment to simulated and theoretical results. Performing experimental comparisons completes the scientific method and grounds all of the work in reality. Being able to physically test theory and simulation is necessary for any real conclusions to be drawn. Another advantage for carrying out experimental work is to advance the physical testing capabilities of SNL. Several systems will be developed and tested through the course of this work that positively impact technological advancement of Sandia National Labs. Lastly, all of the above work will converge to yield a well-rounded perspective that ties the three categories of research together.
42 ENGINEERING↗
D 3 -creatine dilution for skeletal muscle mass measurement: historical development and current status
The French chemist Michel Eugène Chevreul discovered creatine in meat two centuries ago. Extensive biochemical and physiological studies of this organic molecule followed with confirmation that creatine is found within the cytoplasm and mitochondria of human skeletal muscles. Two groups of investigators exploited these relationships five decades ago by first estimating the creatine pool size in vivo with 14 C and 15 N labelled isotopes. Skeletal muscle mass (kg) was then calculated by dividing the creatine pool size (g) by muscle creatine concentration (g/kg) measured on a single muscle biopsy or estimated from the literature. This approach for quantifying skeletal muscle mass is generating renewed interest with the recent introduction of a practical stable isotope (creatine-(methyl-d 3 )) dilution method for estimating the creatine pool size across the full human lifespan. The need for a muscle biopsy has been eliminated by assuming a constant value for whole-body skeletal muscle creatine concentration of 4.3 g/kg wet weight. The current single compartment model of estimating creatine pool size and skeletal muscle mass rests on four main assumptions: tracer absorption is complete; tracer is all retained; tracer is distributed solely in skeletal muscle; and skeletal muscle creatine concentration is known and constant. Three of these assumptions are false to varying degrees. Not all tracer is retained with urinary isotope losses ranging from 0% to 9%; an empirical equation requiring further validation is used to correct for spillage. Not all tracer is distributed in skeletal muscle with non-muscle creatine sources ranging from 2% to 10% with a definitive value lacking. Lastly, skeletal muscle creatine concentration is not constant and varies between muscles (e.g. 3.89–4.62 g/kg), with diets (e.g. vegetarian and omnivore), across age groups (e.g. middle-age, ~4.5 g/kg; old-age, 4.0 g/kg), activity levels (e.g. athletes, ~5 g/kg) and in disease states (e.g. muscular dystrophies, <3 g/kg). Some of the variability in skeletal muscle creatine concentrations can be attributed to heterogeneity in the proportions of wet skeletal muscle as myofibres, connective tissues, and fat. These observations raise serious concerns regarding the accuracy of the deuterated-creatine dilution method for estimating total body skeletal muscle mass as now defined by cadaver analyses of whole wet tissues and in vivo approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging. A new framework is needed in thinking about how this potentially valuable method for measuring the creatine pool size in vivo can be used in the future to study skeletal muscle biology in health and disease.
body composition↗
Test methodology for validation of multi-frequency models of renewable energy generators using small-signal perturbations
Providing trustworthy and accurate multi-frequency (or harmonic) models for renewable energy generators (REG) is an ongoing challenge for harmonic studies. There have been effective attempts to propose and design a test device to validate the harmonic models, mainly based on shunt current perturbations. However, using additional devices for perturbations is costly for converter-based test sites. This paper provides the test specifications to extend the application of the grid emulators for voltage perturbations and appropriate harmonic model validation. Besides, the effects of the sequence couplings, initial emissions, and power set-points on the test results have been overlooked in the literature. Considering these effects, this paper proposes a generic test methodology to obtain more accurate models in the sequence domain. The experimental verification of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a 7 MVA grid emulator for testing of a 2 MVA photo-voltaic converter and a 2 MVA Type 3 wind turbine. This way, the test challenges, specifications, and recommendations are presented using the MW-scale experiments on different REGs. Furthermore, the effects of sequence couplings and initial emissions on the calculation results are investigated and compared. The proposed methodology is applicable for harmonic model validation as well as empirical modelling.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Development and transferability of neural-network models for plasma-surface interactions
Plasma-surface interactions are increasingly critical to modern technologies; yet, accurate molecular dynamics simulations remain limited by the capabilities of interatomic potentials. Deep Potentials (DPs) promise to revolutionize the field by providing a systematic method for producing accurate interatomic potentials. The primary challenge of DP development is selecting a dataset, which efficiently spans the set of atomic environments one expects to encounter in the subsequent molecular dynamics simulations. The computational cost of density functional theory calculations, which are the typical basis for DP development, makes it impossible to directly verify the quality of a given DP. To address this challenge, we explore the development of a deep-learned interatomic potential, “DeepREBO,” trained to reproduce the behavior of the REBO2 empirical potential, enabling direct validation of training methodology and transferability. Using an active learning framework, we begin with a minimal dataset and iteratively expand it to train a Deep Potential-Smooth Edition model that faithfully reproduces REBO2 results for 25 eV hydrogen bombardment of diamond (001), a particularly challenging case. We show that small, carefully curated datasets can outperform large, unguided ones, with effective models requiring fewer than 15 000 snapshots. Subsequent transferability tests demonstrate that while DeepREBO generalizes well to diamond (111) surfaces, performance degrades for amorphous carbon or higher-energy impacts, highlighting the need for use-case-specific training data. We also evaluate methods to improve short-range repulsion. This study outlines best practices for training robust deep potentials and underscores the importance of dataset design for predictive plasma simulations.
Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗
Timely Reporting of Heavy Hitters Using External Memory
Given an input stream S of size N, a Φ-heavy hitter is an item that occurs at least ΦN times in S. The problem of finding heavy-hitters is extensively studied in the database literature. In this work, we study a real-time heavy-hitters variant in which an element must be reported shortly after we see its T = Φ N-th occurrence (and hence it becomes a heavy hitter). We call this the Timely Event Detection (TED) Problem. The TED problem models the needs of many real-world monitoring systems, which demand accurate (i.e., no false negatives) and timely reporting of all events from large, high-speed streams with a low reporting threshold (high sensitivity). Like the classic heavy-hitters problem, solving the TED problem without false-positives requires large space (Ω (N) words). Thus in-RAM heavy-hitters algorithms typically sacrifice accuracy (i.e., allow false positives), sensitivity, or timeliness (i.e., use multiple passes). We show how to adapt heavy-hitters algorithms to external memory to solve the TED problem on large high-speed streams while guaranteeing accuracy, sensitivity, and timeliness. Our data structures are limited only by I/O-bandwidth (not latency) and support a tunable tradeoff between reporting delay and I/O overhead. With a small bounded reporting delay, our algorithms incur only a logarithmic I/O overhead. We implement and validate our data structures empirically using the Firehose streaming benchmark. Multi-threaded versions of our structures can scale to process 11M observations per second before becoming CPU bound. In comparison, a naive adaptation of the standard heavy-hitters algorithm to external memory would be limited by the storage device’s random I/O throughput, i.e., ≈100K observations per second.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
High Fidelity CFD Simulations Supporting the KP-FHR
Kairos Power, LLC, is developing its version of the Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor, the KP-FHR. The design uses a pebble bed core with fluoride salt as a coolant. The pebbles used in the KP-FHR have a diameter of 4 cm, with a shell fuel region where TRISO particles are embedded. A Pebble bed core design is adopted by several Gen IV reactors, They boast many benefits, such as fuel integrity, highly efficient heat transfer, and passive safety. However, it is challenging to accurately predict temperature and flow inside a pebble bed. Traditional approaches use the porous media model, which regards the pebble bed as a continuous medium, but with different temperature fields representing different levels, such as the fluid temperature, pebble surface temperature, and pebble center temperature. Empirical heat transfer correlations are adopted to calculate the heat transfer coefficient between different phases. However, empirical correlations are usually validated with experimental data, which usually lacks detail inside the pebble bed. The available experimental data is also generally at a high Reynolds number, which falls outside of the conditions of KP-FHR. Explicit computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of randomly packed pebble beds have only become feasible recently. This is thanks to the rapid development of computational power and scalable algorithms. In this work, we used the Spectral Element Method (SEM) CFD code NekRS to simulate the randomly packed pebble bed in a cylindrical container. NekRS, which is the GPU variant of Nek5000, but refactored to utilize the computational power of GPUs using the OCCA library to run on hybrid architecture high performance computing systems. It was initially developed with the libParamunal library, but truncated and tuned for large-scale turbulence simulation. As a result, the SEM reaches higher precision with the same degrees of freedom by using a high-order Lagrange polynomial basis distributed on Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre quadrature inside each element, compared to lower-order methods, such the Finite Volume Method and Finite Element Method. The report is divided into five parts. We start with a general discussion of the pebble bed reactor, along with a specific investigation into the KP-FHR. The second part presents the numerical methodology. In the third part, we study a modular pebble bed with 1741 pebbles in a container of 7 pebble-diameter radius. Beyond LES simulations done by NekRS, we also leveraged the thermal radiation model in OpenFOAM to study heat transfer under no-forced-flow scenarios. Then, in the fourth part we simulated a pebble bed similar to the size of the Hermes Test Reactor. The total number of pebbles is in these simulations is 34,374. The container radius is 14 pebble-diameters. Finally, the report concludes in part five, with a discussion of future work.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE): Utility Pilots
The Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model provides the optimal portfolio of distribution system upgrades—e.g., voltage regulators, feeder reconductoring, transformer upgrades and non-wires alternatives (NWA), such as strategic siting of storage and distributed generation—to interconnect distributed energy resources (DERs) and enable load growth. It can be used to assess grid infrastructure costs and explore policy and regulatory solutions for distribution planning and DER valuation.In 2025, Berkeley Lab conducted three pilot analyses to validate LODGE results with empirical utility data before the model’s first release in 2026. The pilots, done with utilities in Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico, provide examples that illustrate how the model works, what it can do, and the value of the analysis.
Heleno, Miguel↗
A conservative, interface-resolved, compressible framework for the modeling and simulation of liquid/gas phase change
This paper presents a method for simulating evaporation in a compressible, interface-resolved framework appropriate for modeling problems of engineering interest. In order to achieve robustness and broad applicability, the method has been designed to discretely enforce consistent mass and thermal energy transport at the phase interface, to globally conserve mass, momentum, and energy, and to be capable of modeling compressible and incompressible systems. Verification is performed via the Sod-shock test, one-dimensional heat conduction, evaporation from a planar interface, and evaporation of three-dimensional droplets. Convergence with increasing mesh resolution is demonstrated in all tested configurations, and conservation is maintained near machine precision for a translating droplet. Conservation and accurate phase change rates are preserved at the low numerical resolutions commonly encountered in engineering calculations. Following verification, the method is validated by comparison to an empirical correlation for evaporating droplets in high temperature crossflow, and the presentation concludes with the simulation of an iso-octane spray at conditions representative of gasoline direct injection. In conclusion, successful verification, validation, and demonstrated practical utility suggest the method to be an accurate, efficient, and robust approach for the study of phase change in engineering systems.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic models: Application to COVID-19 spread accounting for long-term care facilities
Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.
42 ENGINEERING↗