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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning informed prediction of high-entropy solid solution formation: Beyond the Hume-Rothery rules

The empirical rules for the prediction of solid solution formation proposed so far in the literature usually have very compromised predictability. Some rules with seemingly good predictability were, however, tested using small data sets. Based on an unprecedented large dataset containing 1252 multicomponent alloys, machine-learning methods showed that the formation of solid solutions can be very accurately predicted (93%). The machine-learning results help identify the most important features, such as molar volume, bulk modulus, and melting temperature. As such a new thermodynamics-based rule was developed to predict solid–solution alloys. The new rule is nonetheless slightly less accurate (73%) but has roots in the physical nature of the problem. The new rule is employed to predict solid solutions existing in the three blocks, each of which consists of 9 elements. The predictions encompass face-centered cubic (FCC), body-centered cubic (BCC), and hexagonal closest packed (HCP) structures in a high throughput manner. The validity of the prediction is further confirmed by CALculations of PHAse Diagram (CALPHAD) calculations with high consistency (94%). Since the new thermodynamics-based rule employs only elemental properties, applicability in screening for solid solution high-entropy alloys is straightforward and efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Green AI: Insights Into Deep Learning's Looming Energy Efficiency Crisis

As demands grow to integrate artificial intelligence into every aspect of industry, commerce, and life, deep learning's exploding energy cost has become a looming crisis, making AI systems a salient energy-efficiency challenge. One might expect that doubling a neural network's size would halve its error rate, or at least allow it to achieve greater performance given the same amount of time and energy. I will present clear and substantial scientific evidence which indicates that not only is this intuition wildly wrong, but that neural networks scale so poorly that to increase deep learning performance by only a small fraction can easily require an order of magnitude or more increase in computational resources and energy. Further, the marginal trade-off price of to increase model performance rapidly explodes as performance targets are increased. To address this challenge, I will provide a toolkit of techniques that can be applied today to mitigate the inefficiency of modern deep learning. And, I will conclude by illuminating a practical path forward towards efficient, Green AI.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing machine learning and interpolation methods for loop-level calculations

The need to approximate functions is ubiquitous in science, either due to empirical constraints or high computational cost of accessing the function. In high-energy physics, the precise computation of the scattering cross-section of a process requires the evaluation of computationally intensive integrals. A wide variety of methods in machine learning have been used to tackle this problem, but often the motivation of using one method over another is lacking. Comparing these methods is typically highly dependent on the problem at hand, so we specify to the case where we can evaluate the function a large number of times, after which quick and accurate evaluation can take place. We consider four interpolation and three machine learning techniques and compare their performance on three toy functions, the four-point scalar Passarino-Veltman D_0 D 0 function, and the two-loop self-energy master integral M. We find that in low dimensions (d = 3), traditional interpolation techniques like the Radial Basis Function perform very well, but in higher dimensions (d=5, 6, 9) we find that multi-layer perceptrons (a.k.a neural networks) do not suffer as much from the curse of dimensionality and provide the fastest and most accurate predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degradation and Modeling of Large-Format Commercial Lithium-Ion Cells as a Function of Chemistry, Design, and Aging Conditions

Demand for large-format (>10 Ah) lithium-ion batteries has increased substantially in recent years, due to the growth of both electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets. The economics of these applications is sensitive to the lifetime of the batteries, and end-of-life can either be due to energy or power limitations. Despite this, there is little information from cell manufacturers on the sensitivity of cell degradation to environmental conditions or battery use. This work reports accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries from three manufacturers, with varying design (thickness, casings, ...), chemistry (lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) or lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide positive electrodes (NMC), with graphite (Gr) negative electrodes), and capacity (50 to 250 Amp hours). The tested LFP|Gr cell is found to be relatively insensitive to cycling conditions like temperature or voltage window, while NMC|Gr cells have varying sensitivity. Degradation trends are further investigated by training predictive models: simple polynomial trend lines, a semi-empirical reduced-order model, and an empirical reduced-order model identified using machine-learning based on symbolic regression. Calendar and cycle life are simulated over a variety of conditions to directly compare the various batteries. Cell size and thickness are found to substantially impact sensitivity to temperature during cycle aging, while electrode chemistry impacts depth-of-discharge sensitivity. Real-world battery lifetime is evaluated by simulating residential energy storage and commercial frequency containment reserve systems in several U.S. climate regions. Predicted lifetime across cell types varies from 7 years to 20+ years, though all cells are predicted to have at least 10 year life in certain conditions.

battery lifetime↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Dataset of 3D Structural and Simulated Transport Properties of Complex Porous Media

Physical processes that occur within porous materials have wide-ranging applications including - but not limited to - carbon sequestration, battery technology, membranes, oil and gas, geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal, water resource management. The equations that describe these physical processes have been studied extensively; however, approximating them numerically requires immense computational resources due to the complex behavior that arises from the geometrically-intricate solid boundary conditions in porous materials. Here, we introduce a new dataset of unprecedented scale and breadth, DRP-372: a catalog of 3D geometries, simulation results, and structural properties of samples hosted on the Digital Rocks Portal. The dataset includes 1736 flow and electrical simulation results on 217 samples, which required more than 500 core years of computation. This data can be used for many purposes, such as constructing empirical models, validating new simulation codes, and developing machine learning algorithms that closely match the extensive purely-physical simulation. This article offers a detailed description of the contents of the dataset including the data collection, simulation schemes, and data validation.

3D images↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset, Code, and Models for Training Deep Learning Potentials for Low Temperature Plasma-Surface Interactions

This repository contains datasets, training scripts, and finished models, and test simulations used in the development of DeepREBO— a machine-learned interatomic potential trained to emulate the REBO2 empirical potential. The data was generated to study deep potential development for simulations of plasma-surface interactions. It uses an active learning framework, starting from a minimal dataset and iteratively expanding it. Included are those generated datasets, the trained models, and simulations used to evaluate the performance of the training process. This resource supports reproducibility and provides a reference framework for training deep potentials in plasma-surface interaction studies.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model-Free Data Authentication for Cyber Security in Power Systems

With the development and wide deployment of measurement equipment, data can be automatically measured and visualized for situation awareness in power systems. However, the cyber security of power systems is also threated by data spoofing attacks. This letter proposed a measurement data source authentication (MDSA) algorithm based on feature extraction techniques including ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and fast Fourier transform (FFT), and machine learning for real-time measurement data classification. Compared with previous work, the proposed algorithm can achieve higher accuracy of MDSA using a shorter window of data from closely located synchrophasor measurement sensors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning magnetism classifiers from atomic coordinates

The determination of magnetic structure poses a long-standing challenge in condensed matter physics and materials science. Experimental techniques such as neutron diffraction are resource-limited and require complex structure refinement protocols, while computational approaches such as first-principles density functional theory (DFT) need additional semi-empirical correction, and reliable prediction is still largely limited to collinear magnetism. Here, we present a machine learning model that aims to classify the magnetic structure by inputting atomic coordinates containing transition metal and rare earth elements. By building a Euclidean equivariant neural network that preserves the crystallographic symmetry, the magnetic structure (ferromagnetic, antiferromagnetic, and nonmagnetic) and magnetic propagation vector (zero or non-zero) can be predicted with an average accuracy of 77.8% and 73.6%. In particular, a 91% accuracy is reached when predicting no magnetic ordering even if the structure contains magneticelement(s). Ourworkrepresents onestepforwardtosolvingthegrand challenge of full magnetic structure determination.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics guided machine learning using simplified theories

Recent applications of machine learning, in particular deep learning, motivate the need to address the generalizability of the statistical inference approaches in physical sciences. In this Letter, we introduce a modular physics guided machine learning framework to improve the accuracy of such data-driven predictive engines. The chief idea in our approach is to augment the knowledge of the simplified theories with the underlying learning process. To emphasize their physical importance, our architecture consists of adding certain features at intermediate layers rather than in the input layer. To demonstrate our approach, we select a canonical airfoil aerodynamic problem with the enhancement of the potential flow theory. We include the features obtained by a panel method that can be computed efficiently for an unseen configuration in our training procedure. By addressing the generalizability concerns, our results suggest that the proposed feature enhancement approach can be effectively used in many scientific machine learning applications, especially for the systems where we can use a theoretical, empirical, or simplified model to guide the learning module.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗
DOE OSTI2021

PYSEQM

PYSEQM is a package for performing semi-empirical quantum mechanical (SEQM) simulations on molecular systems utilizing PyTorch. SEQM simulations determine molecular properties (energy, electron density, dipole moment, ect.) by solving an approximate Schrödinger equation for the motions of electrons in a molecule. The use of PyTorch provides three specific advantages. First, it allows the calculations to be offloaded to GPU accelerators, giving an order of magnitude increase in speed. Second, back propagation is used to get atomic forces (derivative of the total energy with respect to atomic position) at the same computational cost as the energy calculation itself. Finally, the use of PyTorch makes for a natural interface to modern machine learning methods, which can be used to adjust the semi-empirical parameters build into SEQM methods. Additionally, PYSEQM implements various other optimizations for performing quantum mechanics based molecular dynamics, including SP2 for rapid GPU based solution of the self-consistent field algorithm, and the extended Lagrangian method for rapid QM-MD.

Nebgen, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic determination of Peierls barriers of dislocation glide in nickel

The Peierls barrier measures the lattice resistance to dislocation glide in crystalline solids. We use the nudged elastic band (NEB) method to calculate the Peierls barriers for screw and edge dislocation glide in a face-centered cubic (FCC) metal of Ni. The minimum energy paths (MEPs) across single or sequential Peierls barriers are determined under shear loading. The NEB results show the decreasing Peierls barrier with increasing shear stress, giving the Peierls stress at which the Peierls barrier vanishes. The effects of boundary condition and system size on Peierls barriers are studied by comparing strain- and stress-controlled NEB results. Furthermore, the free-end NEB methods are applied to determine MEPs with improved computational efficiency. The NEB results are also used to evaluate the energetic driving force of dislocation glide, which is consistent with that determined from the Peach-Koehler force. The accuracy of the present NEB results based on an empirical interatomic potential is assessed by comparison with a machine-learning potential. This work demonstrates the robust and efficient quantification of Peierls barriers to dislocation glide in an FCC metal, and it lays a solid foundation for the atomistic determination of Peierls barriers in compositionally complex alloys with the FCC structure in future studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Memory-based parameterization with differentiable solver: Application to Lorenz ’96

Physical parameterizations (or closures) are used as representations of unresolved subgrid processes within weather and global climate models or coarse-scale turbulent models, whose resolutions are too coarse to resolve small-scale processes. These parameterizations are typically grounded on physically based, yet empirical, representations of the underlying small-scale processes. Machine learning-based parameterizations have recently been proposed as an alternative solution and have shown great promise to reduce uncertainties associated with the parameterization of small-scale processes. Yet, those approaches still show some important mismatches that are often attributed to the stochasticity of the considered process. This stochasticity can be due to coarse temporal resolution, unresolved variables, or simply to the inherent chaotic nature of the process. To address these issues, we propose a new type of parameterization (closure), which is built using memory-based neural networks, to account for the non-instantaneous response of the closure and to enhance its stability and prediction accuracy. We apply the proposed memory-based parameterization, with differentiable solver, to the Lorenz ’96 model in the presence of a coarse temporal resolution and show its capacity to predict skillful forecasts over a long time horizon of the resolved variables compared to instantaneous parameterizations. This approach paves the way for the use of memory-based parameterizations for closure problems.

Mathematics↗