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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗
NASA NTRS2017

Taking SiC Power Devices to the Final Frontier: Addressing Challenges of the Space Radiation Environment

Silicon carbide power device technology has the potential to enable a new generation of aerospace power systems that demand high efficiency, rapid switching, and reduced mass and volume in order to expand space-based capabilities. For this potential to be realized, SiC devices must be capable of withstanding the harsh space radiation environment. Commercial SiC components exhibit high tolerance to total ionizing dose but to date, have not performed well under exposure to heavy ion radiation representative of the on-orbit galactic cosmic rays. Insertion of SiC power device technology into space applications to achieve breakthrough performance gains will require intentional development of components hardened to the effects of these highly-energetic heavy ions. This work presents heavy-ion test data obtained by the authors over the past several years for discrete SiC power MOSFETs, JFETs, and diodes in order to increase the body of knowledge and understanding that will facilitate hardening of this technology to space radiation effects. Specifically, heavy-ion irradiation data taken under different bias, temperature, and ion beam conditions is presented for devices from different manufacturers, and the emerging patterns discussed.

Power semiconductor devices↗
NASA NTRS2020

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics are the processes of recruitment, growth, death, and turnover of the constituent tree species of the forest community. These processes are driven by disturbances both natural and anthropogenic. McDowell et al. review recent progress in understanding the drivers of forest dynamics and how these are interacting and changing in the context of global climate change. The authors show that shifts in forest dynamics are already occurring, and the emerging pattern is that global forests are tending toward younger stands with faster turnover as old-growth forest with stable dynamics are dwindling.

land-use change↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗
DOE OSTI2025

Why Is Attention Sparse In Particle Transformer?

Transformer-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in jet tagging at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC), with the Particle Transformer (ParT) representing a leading example of such models. A striking feature of ParT is its sparse, nearly binary, attention structure, raising questions about the origin of this behavior and whether it encodes physically meaningful correlations. In this work, we investigate the source of ParT's sparse attention by comparing models trained on multiple benchmark datasets and examine the relative contributions of the attention term and the physics-inspired interaction matrix before softmax. We find that binary sparsity arises primarily from the attention mechanism itself, with the interaction matrix playing a secondary role. Moreove, we show that ParT is able to identify key jet substructure elements, such as leptons in semileptonic top decays, even without explicit particle identification inputs. These results provide new insight into the interpretability of transformer-based jet taggers and clarify the conditions under which sparse attention patterns emerge in ParT.

Legge, Timothy [UC, San Diego]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two-Frequency RF Fields Induced Multipactor in Coaxial Transmission Lines

Multipactor is a nonlinear discharge phenomenon that occurs in vacuum RF systems, potentially leading to signal distortion, power loss, and even permanent damage to high-power components. This study presents a detailed investigation of two-surface multipactor in coaxial transmission lines under two-frequency excitation, using one-dimensional (1D) Monte Carlo simulations validated by three-dimensional (3D) Particle-in-Cell (PIC) results and experimental data. Introducing a second carrier mode is shown to suppress multipactor by reshaping and shrinking the susceptibility region, with the extent and location of suppression strongly dependent on the device aspect ratio and the relative phase of the second mode. Distinct suppression patterns emerge across different frequency–gap distance (fd) regimes, and in certain cases, susceptibility expansion is also observed. The study identifies and distinguishes pure and mixed multipactor modes in coaxial geometry, where analytical mode boundaries are not readily defined. Unlike planar systems, pure-mode regions in coaxial structures overlap with mixed-mode domains, complicating classification. Image charge forces are found to have minimal effect on susceptibility thresholds but do influence electron growth rates. These findings provide new insights into waveform-driven control of multipactor in high-power RF systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially correlated incommensurate lattice modulations in an atomically thin high-temperature Bi 2.1 Sr 1.9 CaCu 2.0 O 8+y superconductor

Strong variations in superconducting critical temperatures in different families of the cuprate perovskites, even with similar hole doping in their copper-oxygen planes, suggest the importance of lattice modulation effects. The one-dimensional incommensurate lattice modulation (ILM) of Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+y , with the average atomic positions perturbed beyond the unit cell6, offer s an ideal test ground for studying the interplay between superconductivity and the long-range incommensurate lattice fluctuations. Here we report Scanning nano X-ray Diffraction (SnXRD) imaging of incommensurate lattice modulations in Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+y Van der Waals heterostructures of thicknesses down to two-unit cells. Using SnXRD, we probe that the long-range and short-range incommensurate lattice modulations in bulk sample surface with spatial resolution below 100 nm. We find that puddle-like domains of ILM of size uniformly evolving with dimensionality. In the 2-unit cell thin sample, it is observed that the wavevectors of the long- and short-range orders become anticorrelated with emerging spatial patterns having a directional gradient. The emerging patterns, originated by tiny tuning of lattice strain, induce static mesoscopic charge density waves. Finally, our findings thus demonstrate that the strain can be used to tune and control the electromagnetic properties of two-dimensional high-temperature superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intrahost SARS-CoV-2 k-mer Identification Method (iSKIM) for Rapid Detection of Mutations of Concern Reveals Emergence of Global Mutation Patterns

Despite unprecedented global sequencing and surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, timely identification of the emergence and spread of novel variants of concern (VoCs) remains a challenge. Several million raw genome sequencing runs are now publicly available. We sought to survey these datasets for intrahost variation to study emerging mutations of concern. We developed iSKIM (“intrahost SARS-CoV-2 k-mer identification method”) to relatively quickly and efficiently screen the many SARS-CoV-2 datasets to identify intrahost mutations belonging to lineages of concern. Certain mutations surged in frequency as intrahost minor variants just prior to, or while lineages of concern arose. The Spike N501Y change common to several VoCs was found as a minor variant in 834 samples as early as October 2020. This coincides with the timing of the first detected samples with this mutation in the Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Beta/B.1.351 lineages. Using iSKIM, we also found that Spike L452R was detected as an intrahost minor variant as early as September 2020, prior to the observed rise of the Epsilon/B.1.429/B.1.427 lineages in late 2020. iSKIM rapidly screens for mutations of interest in raw data, prior to genome assembly, and can be used to detect increases in intrahost variants, potentially providing an early indication of novel variant spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗
DOE OSTI2023

An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming

Since the early 2010s, anthropogenic aerosols have started decreasing in East Asia (EA) while have continued to increase in South Asia (SA). Yet the climate impacts of this Asian aerosol dipole (AAD) pattern remain largely unknown. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we demonstrate that the climate response is distinctly different between the SA aerosol increases and EA aerosol decreases. The SA aerosol increases lead to ~2.7 times stronger land summer precipitation change within the forced regions than the EA aerosol decreases. Contrastingly, the SA aerosol increases, within the tropical monsoon regime, produce weak and tropically confined responses, while the EA aerosol decreases yield a pronounced northern hemisphere warming aided by extratropical mean westerly and positive air-sea feedbacks over the western North Pacific. By scaling the observed instantaneous shortwave radiative forcing, we reveal that the recent AAD induces a pronounced northern hemisphere extratropical (beyond 30°N) warming (0.024 ± 0.010 °C decade -1 ), particularly over Europe (0.049 ± 0.009 °C decade -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of the pattern effect of forcings in driving global climate and have important implications for decadal prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two-dimensional patterning of mesoscale fibers using acoustophoresis

The performance of functional composites can rely critically on the arrangement of secondary phases; for example, patterned networks of conductive particles can impart anisotropic thermal, electric or ionic conductivity while preserving flexibility in the matrix. We demonstrate the use of standing acoustic waves to generate periodic patterns of short fibers. We extend the range of possible patterns with the first demonstration of both rectangular grids and arrays of octagons interspersed with rectangles. These newly demonstrated patterns are rationalized using theoretical models of acoustic forces and torques on fibers that account for two-dimensional spatial variations arising from applied acoustic fields. The models enable simulations of fiber motion, which are used to (i) map out final fiber positions as a function of initial position and orientation, and (ii) corroborate experiments visualizing fiber motion and final patterns. This approach provides a fast and accurate way to predict emergent fiber patterns as a function of excitation modality and fiber length. The theory and experiments clearly indicate strong coupling between the length of the fibers and the spacing of the acoustic nodes. Furthermore, this coupling is used to estimate reductions in percolation thresholds associated with the ratio of fiber length and acoustic wavelength.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Lessons Learned from Real-Time, Event-Based Internet Science Communications

For the last several years the Science Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center has carried out a diverse program of Internet-based science communication. The Directorate's Science Roundtable includes active researchers, NASA public relations, educators, and administrators. The Science@NASA award-winning family of Web sites features science, mathematics, and space news. The program includes extended stories about NASA science, a curriculum resource for teachers tied to national education standards, on-line activities for students, and webcasts of real-time events. The focus of sharing science activities in real-time has been to involve and excite students and the public about science. Events have involved meteor showers, solar eclipses, natural very low frequency radio emissions, and amateur balloon flights. In some cases, broadcasts accommodate active feedback and questions from Internet participants. Through these projects a pattern has emerged in the level of interest or popularity with the public. The pattern differentiates projects that include science from those that do not, All real-time, event-based Internet activities have captured public interest at a level not achieved through science stories or educator resource material exclusively. The worst event-based activity attracted more interest than the best written science story. One truly rewarding lesson learned through these projects is that the public recognizes the importance and excitement of being part of scientific discovery. Flying a camera to 100,000 feet altitude isn't as interesting to the public as searching for viable life-forms at these oxygen-poor altitudes. The details of these real-time, event-based projects and lessons learned will be discussed.

Phillips, T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct Optical Lithography of CsPbX 3 Nanocrystals via Photoinduced Ligand Cleavage with Postpatterning Chemical Modification and Electronic Coupling

Microscale patterning of solution-processed nanomaterials is important for integration in functional devices. Colloidal lead halide perovskite (LHP) nanocrystals (NCs) can be particularly challenging to pattern due to their incompatibility with polar solvents and lability of surface ligands. Here, we introduce a direct photopatterning approach for LHP NCs through the binding and subsequent cleavage of a photosensitive oxime sulfonate ester (-C=N-OSOO-). The photosensitizer binds to the NCs through its sulfonate group and is cleaved at the N-O bond during photoirradiation with 405 nm light. This bond cleavage decreases the solubility of the NCs, which allows patterns to emerge upon development with toluene. Postpatterning ligand exchange results in photoluminescence quantum yields of up to 79%, while anion exchange provides tunability in the emission wavelength. Finally, the patterned NC films show photoconductive behavior, demonstrating that good electrical contact between the NCs can be established.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Epistasis and evolution: recent advances and an outlook for prediction

As organisms evolve, the effects of mutations change as a result of epistatic interactions with other mutations accumulated along the line of descent. This can lead to shifts in adaptability or robustness that ultimately shape subsequent evolution. Here, we review recent advances in measuring, modeling, and predicting epistasis along evolutionary trajectories, both in microbial cells and single proteins. We focus on simple patterns of global epistasis that emerge in this data, in which the effects of mutations can be predicted by a small number of variables. The emergence of these patterns offers promise for efforts to model epistasis and predict evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗