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2023 Real-time Optimization Workflow Status Update

Nuclear integrated energy systems are composed of a diverse set of energy generation sources and exist in dynamic and competitive electricity markets. With the inclusion of thermal energy storage, nuclear power systems can store heat for future use through various processes, such as water desalination or hydrogen generation. This heat storage can be managed in such a way as to economically optimize its usage. By combining real-time price data from the day-ahead and real-time markets with predictive and intelligent models, the charging and discharging of the thermal energy storage may be determined and optimized. This research details an approach through models and systems for the real-time optimization (RTO) of capacity allocation. Virtual models of the energy system and its physics phenomenon and component interactions provide intelligence to verification and prediction of operations. An optimization framework can use data generated from both a set of physical assets as well as the virtual models to predict future performance and create optimization and control workflows. Data warehouse technologies can be used to combine data across models, optimization workflows, market price data, and sensor data to intuitively store various types of data and provide integrations to physical control systems as well as user visualizations. Put together, these components can create a system for the RTO of nuclear integrated energy systems. Various virtual models and bench-scale physical demonstrations have been successfully performed and verified using this system. Larger scale testbeds that include thermal energy storage systems have been identified as future opportunities. A gap analysis that details the steps necessary to reach a physical demonstration at this scale is provided, along with conclusions on the current effort and future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization of WAAM Process to Produce AUSC Components with Increased Service Life

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize industrial hardware and unlock efficiency gains through the fabrication of geometries and architectures not possible by conventional processing. Wire Arc Additive manufacturing (WAAM) process is a class of directed energy deposition process enabling higher build rate and allowing custom wire feedstock allowing spatial variation of microstructure. The larger spot size and lower speed creates a larger melt pool, reducing residual stress and often time creating directional/columnar microstructure for Ni-superalloy. The use of flexible platform provides freedom in deposition strategy, which can accommodate complex substrates, including feature addition onto existing structures, non-flat layers, and repair methods. However, the certification of the final component needs to match the strength requirement. Hence, the quality of the component produced is stringently monitored to avoid buildup of residual stress, cracks, porosity and to reduce detrimental segregated phases commonly observed during alloy solidification. Simulation plays a huge role in predicting the melt pool dimension and can be used to optimize the process parameter. Similar development is also required to perform physics-based modeling of microstructural development in WAAM that can predict the microstructural features during solidification and can be used to optimize the process more effectively. To move toward this goal, Raytheon Technologies Research Center together with Siemens worked to create a set of computational tools to control the process parameters, enable on-line measurements and acquisition with feedback to the optimized process parameters, and eventually track material evolution through each step of the additive process. Computational fluid dynamics is used for accurate prediction and calibration of the thermal field during WAAM process. and phase field models for microstructure evolution as a function of processing parameters to establish a connection between additive parameters and the final microstructure. Here we report cellular automata (CA) model development to predict the dendritic microstructure evolution with surface and bulk nuclei for single track and multiple layers. The CA model was developed to account for secondary element addition and predict segregation, local melting, and latent heat release as well as prediction of Euler angles from orientation information and validated against experiments. This framework was utilized to tailor spatially-varying composition in a part by appropriately controlling the microstructure evolution during the additive process. Functionally graded Haynes 282 alloy with high Cr content at the surface was tested for oxidation and mechanical properties. An advanced physics-based reaction-diffusion model predicting the simultaneous creation of chromium oxide and alumina is developed and validated to extend life expectancy of the WAAM manufactured high temperature part. A machine-learning data-driven framework establishing the process-structure relationship from a dataset of real microstructure images and corresponding process history data has been developed and implemented in the NX Siemens design system. The digital twin configuration along with the tool path generation enabled prediction of WAAM component buildup time and the techno-economic analysis provided a favorable option for all 4 cases with 15-40% cost reduction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Bioblendstocks to Optimize Mixing Controlled Compression Ignition (MCCI) Engines

In this project, a team of researchers from the University of Massachusetts Lowell, the University of Maine, and Mainstream Engineering developed an integrated process for the product of bioblendstocks to optimize mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines. The objective was to improve the energy density, sooting propensity, and cetane number of base diesel fuel while maintaining cold weather behavior. The process converts woody biomass (e.g. sawmill residues) into bio-oil through selective fast pyrolysis; the bio-oil is then selectively upgraded to form selectively oxygenated, minimally-branched hydrocarbons using non-noble metal catalysts in combination with metal-catalyzed hydrogenation. Advanced predictive models, in conjunction with existing property databases, and experimental testing are used to evaluate overall bioblendstock properties and their impact on base diesel fuel. An iterative, targeted upgrading approach was implemented to optimize the proposed bioblendstock’s properties. Assessment methodologies included techno-economic analysis, life-cycle assessment, property testing, and engine testing. Ultimately, the project team successfully produced a viable bioblendstock while identifying critical process points related to scale-up efforts. It was found that producing pyrolysis oils at 500 degrees C and with pine particle sizes of 1-2 mm led to bio-oil with a higher yield (of approximately 45 wt%) and rich amounts of aromatic alcohols. The resultant pyrolysis oil was then upgraded using a sequence of mild hydrotreating, followed by catalytic etherification and esterification, followed by another final mild hydrotreating to produce a blendstock containing saturated species with a limited, but non-zero, amount of oxygen. The aromatic alcohols produced by pyrolysis were especially helpful in this regard, as the resulting bicycloethers and derivatives exhibited high cetane numbers. While most bulk properties of the bioblendstock met or exceeded targeted thresholds, viscosity and cloud point notably fell outside the expected range; this could be addressed by blending limits and/or through the use of additives that are commonplace in current refinding practices. Identification of a bioblendstock that can be produced economically at scale while improving the performance and emissions characteristics of internal combustion engines positively affects the economy by boosting domestic fuel production and the environment by decreasing harmful emissions and increasing efficiency.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Convergent Manufacturing of Large-Scale Components for Nuclear Applications, via Additive Manufacturing and Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing

Powder metallurgy (PM)–hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) has long been recognized as a powerful route for producing fully dense, near net shape metallic components. By consolidating powders under high temperature and pressure, HIP provides isotropic properties, uniform microstructures, and scalability to complex geometries that are vital for sectors such as aerospace, energy, and nuclear power. Yet despite these advantages, the technology has remained constrained by costly trial and error canister fabrication, limitations of conventional forging, and incomplete knowledge about how the canister design influences final part properties. Additive manufacturing (AM), by contrast, thrives on design freedom and geometric flexibility but struggles with speed, scalability, and cost when applied to very large structures. The research presented in this report investigated how a convergent manufacturing approach, combining AM with PM-HIP, can merge the strengths of both technologies, leveraging AM’s flexibility for canister design and HIP’s consolidation capability to deliver reliable, large, and complex parts. The work progressed through three case studies that built on one another in scale and complexity. Small cylindrical canisters fabricated by conventional methods, laser powder bed fusion, and directed energy deposition were filled with stainless steel powders and subjected to HIP. The resulting parts demonstrated near-full density and mechanical properties on par with wrought stainless steel, showing for the first time that AM canisters can be a direct substitute for conventional ones without sacrificing quality. The next step involved a medium-scale, noncentrosymmetric T-valve, which is an enclosed, multibranch geometry that tested the limits of AM + PM-HIP integration. The T-valve achieved predictable shrinkage and uniform densification, confirming feasibility for enclosed designs. However, this study also revealed oxide inclusions and interfacial challenges at the AM + HIP boundary, underscoring the critical importance of controlling interface chemistry and employing robust, in situ strategies, such as melt pool monitoring and thermal monitoring, coupled with nondestructive evaluation techniques such as x-ray computed tomography. Finally, the effort culminated in fabricating a large-scale impeller weighing nearly 2000 lb and spanning 5 ft in diameter. Produced via multirobot wire arc AM and hot isostatic pressed to near-full density, the impeller validated industrial-scale feasibility. Predictive models closely matched experimental shrinkage, tensile properties were spatially uniform across the component, and the AM + PM-HIP interface proved mechanically sound despite the presence of oxide-decorated prior particle boundaries. This large-scale demonstration is a major milestone, showing that hybrid AM + PM‑HIP can reliably deliver components at reactor-relevant scales. Collectively, these studies charted a logical pathway: small-scale work built scientific confidence, medium-scale work highlighted opportunities and challenges, and large-scale work proved industrial impact. The overarching conclusion of this report is that AM + PM-HIP should not be seen as a replacement for forging but as a complementary pathway that provides the US with flexibility, resilience, and new options for manufacturing nuclear-grade components. Looking ahead, several directions emerge as critical to sustaining progress. Predictive modeling must become faster, more accessible, and more accurate, with digital twins and machine learning reducing reliance on trial and error. Powders and alloys must be optimized for HIP, with improved cleanliness, reduced oxides, and tailored chemistries that enhance creep, fatigue, and irradiation resistance. Interfaces between AM and HIP regions must be better engineered through coatings, machining strategies, and surface treatments to mitigate oxide formation and ensure reliable bonding to explore opportunities for HIP of targeted compositional parts, as well as multimaterial HIP cladding applications. Monitoring and nondestructive evaluation need to expand, incorporating multimodal sensors, x-ray computed tomography, and real-time data integration through platforms such as Pelican. At the same time, the pathway to industrial adoption requires techno-economic analysis, machinability studies, and qualification frameworks aligned with industry and regulatory standards. Finally, workforce and academic engagement must be strengthened. Programs that train technicians and engineers for US Navy and US Department of Energy manufacturing challenges should be paired with academic partnerships to support fundamental research, with open sharing of non-export-controlled data to accelerate innovation and build the next generation of experts. In conclusion, this report demonstrates that hybrid AM + PM-HIP is scientifically viable and strategically important. By combining the design agility of AM with the consolidation strength of HIP and embedding modeling, monitoring, and workforce development, this approach provided a transformative new capability for US manufacturing. The path forward is clear: hybrid AM + PM-HIP is not just a promising research direction but is also potentially an industrially relevant pathway that can reshape how nuclear-grade components are designed, qualified, and deployed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimization-based control using input convex neural networks

Input convex neural networks (ICNNs) are a family of deep learning models where the outputs are constructed to be convex functions of the inputs. By parameterizing system models using ICNNs, optimization-based control problems can be solved as convex optimization problems, leading to improved performance and robustness. This work proposes a novel framework where the control objective function and constraints are modelled using ICNNs. A case study of optimization-based control with output constraints is conducted on a process with input multiplicity and nonminimum phase behavior. The simulation results demonstrate improved economic yield compared with normal neural networks. Additionally, the input convexity formulation is compared with simple regularization techniques, and unique benefits such as improved data efficiency and robustness of the proposed formulation are shown. Finally, by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge about convexity, this framework provides a good balance between the universal approximation power of deep learning and computational feasibility required by control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deep Learning Explicit Differentiable Predictive Control Laws for Buildings

We present a differentiable predictive control (DPC) methodology for learning constrained control laws for unknown nonlinear systems. DPC poses an approximate solution to multiparametric programming problems emerging from explicit nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). Contrary to approximate MPC, DPC does not require supervision by an expert controller. Instead, a system dynamics model is learned from a small dataset of recorded observations of the perturbed system's dynamics and the control law is optimized offline by interaction with the learned system model. The DPC method is based on two sequential steps, i) system identification using a constrained neural state-space model, and ii) optimization of an explicit control law parametrized by another neural network in closed-loop simulation with the identified neural state-space model. The combination of a differentiable closed-loop system and penalty methods for constraint handling of system outputs and inputs allows us to optimize the control law's parameters directly by backpropagating economic MPC loss through the learned system model. By incorporating domain knowledge and leveraging established techniques from optimal control, our method leverages deep neural networks as nonlinear function approximators for system identification and control while avoiding concomitant costs of intractably large datasets, and computationally expensive over-parametrized models. The scalability, data efficiency, and constrained optimal control capability of the proposed DPC method are demonstrated in simulation using a multi-zone building emulator.

Drgona, Jan↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Compelling Need for a Mid-Scale Stellarator Facility

In the pursuit of the goal of commercial fusion as an abundant and safe source of energy, the stellarator is a leading concept with compelling attractiveness and demonstrated performance. A new mid-size stellarator is needed to retire risks and innovate towards a high performance, economically attractive, stellarator Fusion Pilot Plant. In this presentation we, as a community of US researchers from Universities, National Laboratories, and Private Industry, involved in studying the stellarator concept, lay out the programmatic and technical motivation for a new and modern mid-size stellarator research facility. A new mid-scale stellarator is needed to realize the potential predicted by a solid body of theory and simulation along with advances in computational tools for optimization and non-linear turbulence modeling. Notably, it is possible to combine the advantages of the stellarator (steady state, no current drive, no disruptions) with the good confinement regularly achieved in tokamaks. The top priorities for experimental work, and the motivation for a mid-scale stellarator experiment are: turbulence control, non-resonant divertor, MHD stability at large beta, confinement of fast particles, and coil simplification. A new mid-size quasi-symmetric stellarator, built as a user facility, would complement existing research at Wendelstein 7-X and LHD and strongly augment private industry. It would provide a program of innovative research, concept validation, theoretical advancement, and workforce development. Growing support and interest for stellarators by the fusion community and private industry affirms this rationale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comprehensive assessment of metrology techniques for heliostat efficiency and performance evaluation

Concentrating solar power plants, specifically central receiver type systems and their heliostat field, are struggling with negative reputation in the USA, due to perceived underperformance and reliability issues. This is in part due to a lack of standards for performance assessment as well as overly simplified techno-economical models. A better understanding of influences and losses along the solar radiation path from the sun, across the solar collector to the receiver, increases the fidelity of heliostat efficiency assessment as well as solar field performance predictions. Such data are currently scarce and require a complete set of metrology capabilities to evaluate direct solar irradiance, sun shape, atmospheric attenuation, reflectance, collector shape, slope errors and total beam dispersion. In preparation for establishing a 3rd party metrology platform in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, NLR conducted a scoping study on available metrology. We present an extensive overview of techniques and commercial systems for each category. Our work includes an analysis to increase understanding of strengths and limitations of the many techniques used for surface shape and slope measurement. This applies to a controlled, indoor or outdoor laboratory environment assessing a single heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗

Computational fluid dynamic analysis of a novel particle-to-air fluidized-bed heat exchanger for particle-based thermal energy storage applications

Long-duration energy storage technologies are being targeted to enable cost-effective, decarbonized energy systems. Particle-based thermal energy storage systems are one promising technology by storing excess electricity or heat as sensible thermal energy in inexpensive, solid, inert particles. These systems are only possible if an effective and economical particle-to-working fluid heat exchanger exists. This study predicts the performance of a proposed, direct-contact, particle-to-air, pressurized fluidized-bed heat exchanger using computational fluid dynamics. The common Eulerian-Eulerian framework for modeling fluidized beds is first benchmarked to experimental results at a previously untested operating condition and application. Then, the benchmarked model evaluates the performance of a proposed design for a commercial-scale version of the novel particle-to-air heat exchanger. The results show pressure drop and gas-phase approach temperatures are advantageous compared to other proposed designs for particle-to-air heat exchangers in the literature; approach temperatures were less than 5 °C and gas-phase pressure drop across the fluidized bed was 32 kPa. The model also highlights the importance of gas distributor design and representation in the Eulerian-Eulerian framework to control fluidization behavior. In conclusion, the model built and benchmarked in this study can be leveraged to advance the design and analysis of these heat exchangers critical to the deployment of a promising long-duration energy storage technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

Development of an Advanced Hydrogen Energy Storage System using Aerogel in a Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense fluid storage core with integrated design features that afford the designer flexibility and provide new possibilities for the storage and discharge of energy. The stored energy, in this case, is represented by hydrogen physically bonded within the nanoscale pores within the aerogel composite blanket material, and the process of bonding or debonding is governed by the principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (~1,000 m 2 /g) allows for storage densities close to, or in some cases exceeding, that of normal boiling point liquids. Its performance easily exceeds what can be achieved via ambient temperature and high-pressure gas storage for an equivalent volume. CFC storage is predicted to be easily scalable, constructed from readily available commercial materials, and lends itself to a range of pressure applications. The project team designed and manufactured the CFC, integrating it into a set of temperature-controlled flow loops. The CFC test setup was validated against existing data from previous NASA work. Tests used bottled hydrogen gas for test validation. A cryogenic fluid, nitrogen, flowed through a metered control system. Hydrogen temperature, pressure, and flow rates, as well as the temperature control targets, provided all necessary control targets. The team analyzed the recorded data and updated the Technology Maturation Plan based on the results of the test, making recommendations for a follow-up test, scale-up, and maturation pathway. For the engineering development and maturation of CFC hydrogen storage technology, a Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) and Commercialization Plan for the integration of this technology with various power generation assets were produced. A companion analytical model was developed, experimentally validated, compared against performance metric, and used to tune the model and scale up the technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency

The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗