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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-scale temperature-based strategy to map hydrologic exchange flows in highly dynamic systems

Mapping and quantifying hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) is critical to environmental monitoring and remediation at contaminated sites; however, these objectives are challenging in highly dynamic systems, e.g., along dam-regulated rivers, where HEFs vary rapidly. Direct seepage measurements are labor-intensive and difficult to automate, whereas indirect (e.g., thermal) and remote sensing methods have potential to allow continuous monitoring with limited field effort. We present a preliminary assessment of a multi-scale temperature-based strategy for monitoring HEFs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River, in eastern WA, United States. Five thermal methods were assessed. First, a vertical temperature profile (VTP) was installed into the streambed. The VTP data were analyzed using a data assimilation algorithm designed for automated real-time estimation in dynamic systems. Second, a thermal infrared (TIR) camera was used in roving surveys to identify seeps. Third, a TIR camera was stationed at the VTP site to collect images at 1-h intervals. Together, the two TIR datasets provided a basis to assess the potential for drone-based TIR. Fourth, temperature was measured at the sediment/water interface to assess fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. Fifth, imagery from the ECOSTRESS satellite mission was acquired to assess the potential of spaceborne thermal monitoring. Based on our preliminary assessment, VTP, TIR, and bed temperature measurements provide complementary spatial coverage, temporal sampling, and resolution; these methods have potential for long-term, automated monitoring of HEFs. The publicly available spaceborne imagery, however, proved inadequate because of insufficient spatial resolution and data gaps resulting from cloud cover and revisit frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Physical Dynamic System (CPDS) Modeling for Frequency Regulation and AGC Services of Distributed Energy Resources

The substantial integration of renewable energy brings significant challenges to balance the system in real time because of the variability and intermittency of renewable power. For the reliable system operation, the frequency regulation service is used to stabilize the system frequency through automatically balancing the system generation and load. On one hand, with the substantially increasing deployment of renewable energy in electricity system, the requirement of frequency regulation (FR) services increases significantly. On the other hand, the current main resource of FR services, the controllable conventional generation, is continuously decreasing in the system generation mix. This means that in the future high renewable penetration power system, additional and alternative reliable FR services providers such as distributed energy storage (DES) resources should be explored. Although the capability of utility-scale energy storage to provide FR services has been demonstrated, the integrated control and dynamic modeling of distributed energy resource (DER) providing frequency regulation grid services has been rarely explored. There are several challenges to adopt DERs to provide reliable grid services as illustrated in FERC 755. First, the distributed installation of DES requires a comprehensive cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) modeling to fully consider the impacts of the communication latency variability on its real time FR provision capability. Unlike the conventional generators, there are two-layer communication between DERs and system operators which increase the communication delay. Second, unlike the conventional generators whose dynamic models have been comprehensively studied, the difference among individual DER components' power-dynamic characteristic brings challenges in the accurate dynamic AGC modeling of its power-frequency relationship. Third, the temporal dependent state of charge uncertainty of DERs challenges DERs' power and frequency regulation capacities scheduling in the look-ahead generation scheduling. Therefore, the aggregator should optimize the frequency regulation provision from individual DER in real time. To overcome these challenges, this project proposes a cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) model to handle the uncertainty of DERs two-layer communication latency and power dynamics. The variability of DERs' communication delay and dynamic constraints will be comprehensively modeled. The DERs' AGC model with communication delay is designed to validate DESs' frequency regulation services. Like current performance-based frequency regulation evaluation, the delivery of DERs' frequency regulation will be assessed through post-analysis of the actual AGC response with respect to the AGC control signal from system operators. Consequently, the reliability improvement with DERs providing reliable frequency regulation services can be evaluated from a comprehensive perspective considering all the dynamics of communication and power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation process and data flow for a large system dynamics model

This paper documents the workflow and supporting technologies that a large system dynamics model, the biomass scenario model, employs to streamline the data preparation, simulation, quality control, and analysis process at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The workflow centers on automation of routine aspects of the flow of data between data stores, simulations, and visualizations. It enforces quality checks on data, reproducibility of computations, and traceability of results, while maintaining complete archives of modeling and analysis artifacts. The resulting frictionless simulation/analysis environment supports large-scale sensitivity analysis, interactive creation of ensembles of simulations, and rapid visualization-based exploration of simulation results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acceleration of Power System Dynamic Simulations Using a Deep Equilibrium Layer and Neural ODE Surrogate

The dominant paradigm for power system dynamic simulation is to build system-level simulations by combining physics-based models of individual components. The sheer size of the system along with the rapid integration of inverter-based resources exacerbates the computational burden of running time domain simulations. Here, in this paper, we propose a data-driven surrogate model based on implicit machine learningspecifically deep equilibrium layers and neural ordinary differential equationsto learn a reduced order model of a portion of the full underlying system. The data-driven surrogate achieves similar accuracy and reduction in simulation time compared to a physics-based surrogate, without the constraint of requiring detailed knowledge of the underlying dynamic models. This work also establishes key requirements needed to integrate the surrogate into existing simulation workflows; the proposed surrogate is initialized to a steady state operating point that matches the power flow solution by design.

Neural ordinary differential equations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning dynamical systems from data: An introduction to physics-guided deep learning

Modeling complex physical dynamics is a fundamental task in science and engineering. Traditional physics-based models are first-principled, explainable, and sample-efficient. However, they often rely on strong modeling assumptions and expensive numerical integration, requiring significant computational resources and domain expertise. While deep learning (DL) provides efficient alternatives for modeling complex dynamics, they require a large amount of labeled training data. Furthermore, its predictions may disobey the governing physical laws and are difficult to interpret. Physics-guided DL aims to integrate first-principled physical knowledge into data-driven methods. It has the best of both worlds and is well equipped to better solve scientific problems. Recently, this field has gained great progress and has drawn considerable interest across discipline Here, we introduce the framework of physics-guided DL with a special emphasis on learning dynamical systems. We describe the learning pipeline and categorize state-of-the-art methods under this framework. We also offer our perspectives on the open challenges and emerging opportunities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metriplectic four-bracket algorithm for constructing thermodynamically consistent dynamical systems

A unified thermodynamic algorithm is presented for constructing thermodynamically consistent dynamical systems, i.e., systems that have Hamiltonian and dissipative parts that conserve energy while producing entropy. The algorithm is based on the metriplectic 4-bracket given in Morrison and Updike [Phys. Rev. E 109, 045202 (2024)]. A feature of the unified thermodynamic algorithm is the force-flux relation 𝐉 𝛼 =−𝐿 𝛼⁢𝛽 𝛁(𝛿⁢𝐻⁡/𝛿⁢𝜉 𝛽 ) for phenomenological coefficients 𝐿 𝛼⁢𝛽 , Hamiltonian 𝐻, and dynamical variables 𝜉 𝛽 . The algorithm is applied to the Navier-Stokes-Fourier, the Cahn-Hilliard-Navier-Stokes, and Brenner-Navier-Stokes-Fourier systems, and significant generalizations of these systems are obtained.

Multiphase flows↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trust-Region Approximation of Extreme Trajectories in Power System Dynamics

In this work we present a novel technique, based on a trust-region optimization algorithm and second-order trajectory sensitivities, to compute the extreme trajectories of power system dynamic simulations given a bounded set that represents parametric uncertainty. Furthermore, we show how this method, while remaining computationally efficient compared with sampling-based techniques, overcomes the limitations of previous sensitivity-based techniques to approximate the bounds of the trajectories when the local approximation loses validity because of the nonlinearity. We present several numerical experiments that showcase the accuracy and scalability of the technique, including a demonstration on the IEEE New England test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Wind Workforce Assessment Methods Report: Surveys and System Dynamics Model

This report documents the methodology for the National Wind Workforce Assessment: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Needs (McDowell et al. 2023) report. Here, the authors will describe how multiple survey efforts and system dynamics modeling have been used to estimate wind energy workforce needs and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We conducted workforce estimation and sensitivity analysis to help inform actions that can be used to ensure that workforce planning in the industry is done in a way that is sustainable.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chaotic roots of the modular multiplication dynamical system in Shor's algorithm

Shor's factoring algorithm, believed to provide an exponential speedup over classical computation, relies on finding the period of an exactly periodic quantum modular multiplication operator. This exact periodicity is the hallmark of an integrable system, which is paradoxical from the viewpoint of quantum chaos, given that the classical limit of the modular multiplication operator is a highly chaotic system that occupies the “maximally random” Bernoulli level of the classical ergodic hierarchy. In this work, we approach this apparent paradox from a quantum dynamical systems viewpoint, and consider whether signatures of ergodicity and chaos may indeed be encoded in such an “integrable” quantization of a chaotic system. We show that Shor's modular multiplication operator, in specific cases, can be written as a superposition of quantized 𝐴-baker's maps exhibiting more typical signatures of quantum chaos and ergodicity. This work suggests that the integrability of Shor's modular multiplication operator may stem from the interference of other “chaotic” quantizations of the same family of maps, and paves the way for deeper studies on the interplay of integrability, ergodicity, and chaos in and via quantum algorithms.

Dynamical systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Windowed least-squares model reduction for dynamical systems

Here we propose a windowed least-squares (WLS) approach for model reduction of dynamical systems. The proposed approach sequentially minimizes the time-continuous full-order-model residual within a low-dimensional space–time trial subspace over time windows. The approach comprises a generalization of existing model reduction approaches, as particular instances of the methodology recover Galerkin, least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG), and space–time LSPG projection. In addition, the approach addresses key deficiencies in existing model reduction techniques, e.g., the dependence of LSPG and space–time LSPG projection on the time discretization and the exponential growth in time exhibited by a posteriori error bounds for both Galerkin and LSPG projection. We consider two types of space–time trial subspaces within the proposed approach: one that reduces only the spatial dimension of the full-order model, and one that reduces both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the full-order model. For each type of trial subspace, we consider two different solution techniques: direct (i.e., discretize then optimize) and indirect (i.e., optimize then discretize). Numerical experiments conducted using trial subspaces characterized by spatial dimension reduction demonstrate that the WLS approach can yield more accurate solutions with lower space–time residuals than Galerkin and LSPG projection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗