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DOE OSTI2017

Using Water-Level Models to Conceptualize Groundwater-Flow Systems: Examples from the Nevada National Security Site - 17044

Analysis of water-level trends in well hydro-graphs can be used to better understand and conceptualize a groundwater-flow system. A water-level trend reflects the summation of all natural and anthropogenic stresses acting on the aquifer at the well location. Common stresses include recharge, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, earth tides, and pumping. A water-level model (WLM) can be used as a tool to distinguish which stresses are affecting the trend and quantify the impact of each stress on the trend. A WLM is an analytical model that fits measured water levels to a synthetic curve representing the sum of one or more time-series components that explain the water-level trend. Time-series components include recharge pulses simulated with Gamma transforms of precipitation; long-term climatic trends and barometric-pressure responses simulated with moving averages of barometric pressure and water levels in background wells; tidal responses computed from theoretical tidal signals; and pumping drawdown simulated with Theis models. WLM examples are presented to show how to: (1) determine and decompose stresses affecting long-term water levels in wells; and (2) estimate short-term draw-downs in observation wells where drawdown is masked by environmental water-level fluctuations. (authors)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation in methane ebullition in a temperate hydropower reservoir impacts annualized estimates

Estimates of ebullitive methane (CH4) emissions from reservoirs are highly uncertain, often based on spatial and temporal upscaling from a limited number of sampling sites and periods. While some of these estimates may adjust for seasonal variation in temperature, they rarely account for drawdown and the resulting changes in site depth and the areal extent of the reservoir. In Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA), we conducted monthly sampling of 20 sites over 1 year to capture temporal and spatial variation in CH4 ebullition. We then compared various approaches for obtaining annualized, whole-reservoir ebullition estimates. CH4 ebullition fluxes were zero-inflated and highly skewed, with fluxes rising appreciably above zero in July and peaking in autumn. Estimates that did not account for drawdown overestimated annualized rates by 20%, though with high uncertainty. Seasonal variability and hotspots strongly influence annualized ebullition estimates and are important to account for in inventories and global upscaling.

Cardall, Anna [Brigham Young University]↗

DOE OSTI2016

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. As a result, testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Flowing fluid electrical conductivity logging of a deep borehole during and following drilling: estimation of transmissivity, water salinity and hydraulic head of conductive zones

Flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logging is a hydrogeologic testing method that is usually conducted in an existing borehole. However, for the 2,500-m deep COSC-1 borehole, drilled at Åre, central Sweden, it was done within the drilling period during a scheduled 1-day break, thus having a negligible impact on the drilling schedule, yet providing important information on depths of hydraulically conductive zones and their transmissivities and salinities. In this paper, we present a reanalysis of this set of data together with a new FFEC logging data set obtained soon after drilling was completed, also over a period of 1 day, but with a different pumping rate and water-level drawdown. Their joint analysis not only results in better estimates of transmissivity and salinity in the conducting fractures intercepted by the borehole, but also yields the hydraulic head values of these fractures, an important piece of information for the understanding of hydraulic structure of the subsurface. Two additional FFEC logging tests were done about 1 year later, and are used to confirm and refine this analysis. Results show that from 250 to 2,000 m depths, there are seven distinct hydraulically conductive zones with different hydraulic heads and low transmissivity values. For the final test, conducted with a much smaller water-level drawdown, inflow ceased from some of the conductive zones, confirming that their hydraulic heads are below the hydraulic head measured in the wellbore under non-pumped conditions. Lastly, the challenges accompanying 1-day FFEC logging are summarized, along with lessons learned in addressing them.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Combining a land surface model with groundwater model calibration to assess the impacts of groundwater pumping in a mountainous desert basin

The quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed in arid regions to estimate the impacts of new water withdrawals on the water table. However, for mountainous desert areas, such estimates are highly challenging, due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils, and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with simplified uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employed a data-constrained surface-subsurface process model to provide an ensemble of spatially distributed recharge and underflow estimates using perturbed parameters. Then, the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (PEST) package was used to calibrate the aquifer hydraulic conductivity field in MODFLOW for this ensemble and reject implausible recharge values. This novel dual-model approach, broadly applicable to mountainous arid regions, was designed to maximally exploit available data sources. It can assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns due to pumping. We applied this approach to the Chuckwalla basin in California, USA to determine natural recharge. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was employed as in conventional studies, it would result in regional biases in estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. Here, we also note that the speed of groundwater recovery does not guarantee sustainability: heavy pumping induces large hydraulic gradients that initially recover quickly when pumping is halted, but the system may not ultimately recover to pre-pumping levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system

Hydro-wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system has the potential to increase the integration of renewable energy sources into an existing grid. For the long-term operation of the system, due to the non-storable nature of wind and PV power, it is essentially to decide the optimal long-term carryover storage of cascade reservoirs. However, it remains a challenge due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts and complicated hydraulic/electrical relationships between cascade reservoirs. Here in this study, a forecast-driven decision-making model is proposed for the hybrid system, which converts the multi-stage long-term operation process into a two-stage operation problem (including current stage and carryover stage) to avoid using longer-horizon forecast information with lower accuracy. First, the carryover stage energy surfaces (CESs) considering the forecast uncertainties of wind, solar and hydro resources are proposed to characterize carryover stage benefit quantitatively. Then a CESs-based forward decision-making optimization model is developed to guide the long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system. The applications in a hydro-wind-PV hybrid system of Yalong River basin results show that: compared with conventional operation, 1) power generation increases 9.03%; 2) in terms of the carryover storages control, the reservoir impounding and drawdown timing are delayed, and the drawdown depth is increased, which can be used to formulate better reservoir operation rules.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Numerical Simulation of Reservoir Response to Depressurization

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Boswell, Ray↗

DOE OSTI2019

A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater

Many of the world’s major freshwater aquifers are being exploited unsustainably, with some projected to approach environmentally unsafe drawdown limits within the 21st century. Given that aquifer depletion tends to occur in important crop producing regions, the prospect of running dry poses a significant threat to global food security. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to explore the response of land use and agriculture sectors to severe constraints on global water resources. We simulate a scenario in which a number of important groundwater aquifers become depleted beyond environmental or economically viable drawdown limits within the 21st century. Results are then benchmarked against scenario that neglects constraints on water extractions. We find that groundwater depletion and associated water price increases drive two distinct responses in the agriculture sector: an expansion of rain fed agriculture, and a shift in irrigated crop production toward regions with cheaper water resources. Losses in crop production are most pronounced in water stressed regions where groundwater is being depleted unsustainably to meet irrigation demands—namely northwest India, Pakistan, the Middle East, western United States, Mexico, and Central Asia. While these results highlight substantial risks for the affected regional agricultural economies, we show that modest changes in irrigation and location of crop growth could ensure global food demands are met despite severe water constraints.

Turner, Sean WD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate forcing controls on carbon terrestrial fluxes during shale weathering

Climate influences near-surface biogeochemical processes and thereby determines the partitioning of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in shale, and yet the controls on carbon (C) weathering fluxes remain poorly constrained. Using a dataset that characterizes biogeochemical responses to climate forcing in shale regolith, we implement a numerical model that describes the effects of water infiltration events, gas exchange, and temperature fluctuations on soil respiration and mineral weathering at a seasonal timescale. Our modeling approach allows us to quantitatively disentangle the controls of transient climate forcing and biogeochemical mechanisms on C partitioning. We find that ~3% of soil CO 2 (1.02 mol C/m 2 /y) is exported to the subsurface during large infiltration events. Here, net atmospheric CO 2 drawdown primarily occurs during spring snowmelt, governs the aqueous C exports (61%), and exceeds the CO 2 flux generated by pyrite and petrogenic organic matter oxidation (~0.2 mol C/m 2 /y). We show that shale CO 2 consumption results from the temporal coupling between soil microbial respiration and carbonate weathering. This coupling is driven by the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on fresh organic matter availability and CO 2 transport to the weathering front. Diffusion-limited transport of gases under transient hydrological conditions exerts an important control on CO 2 (g) egress patterns and thus must be considered when inferring soil CO 2 drawdown from the gas phase composition. Our findings emphasize the importance of seasonal climate forcing in shaping the net contribution of shale weathering to terrestrial C fluxes and suggest that warmer conditions could reduce the potential for shale weathering to act as a CO 2 sink.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatially structured bacterial interactions alter algal carbon flow to bacteria

Phytoplankton account for nearly half of global photosynthetic carbon fixation, and the fate of that carbon is regulated in large part by microbial food web processing. We currently lack a mechanistic understanding of how interactions among heterotrophic bacteria impact the fate of photosynthetically fixed carbon. Here, we used a set of bacterial isolates capable of growing on exudates from the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum to investigate how bacteria-bacteria interactions affect the balance between exudate remineralization and incorporation into biomass. With exometabolomics and genome-scale metabolic modeling, we estimated the degree of resource competition between bacterial pairs. In a sequential spent media experiment, we found that pairwise interactions were more beneficial than predicted based on resource competition alone, and 30% exhibited facilitative interactions. To link this to carbon fate, we used single-cell isotope tracing in a custom cultivation system to compare the impact of different "primary" bacterial strains in close proximity to live P. tricornutum on a distal "secondary" strain. We found that a primary strain with a high degree of competition decreased secondary strain carbon drawdown by 51% at the single-cell level, providing a quantitative metric for the "cost" of competition on algal carbon fate. Additionally, a primary strain classified as facilitative based on sequential interactions increased total algal-derived carbon assimilation by 7.6 times, integrated over all members, compared to the competitive primary strain. Our findings suggest that the degree of interaction between bacteria along a spectrum from competitive to facilitative is directly linked to algal carbon drawdown.

genome-scale metabolic model↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effect of thermal modification on rheological properties of polyethylene blends

We examined the effects of thermal modification under flow field on the rheological properties of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) with high molecular weight, low-density polyethylene (LDPE), and their blends, without thermal stabilizer. Although structural changes during processing are not detected by size extrusion chromatography or nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, linear viscoelastic properties changed greatly, especially for the LLDPE. A cross-linking reaction took place, leading to, presumably, star-shaped long-chain branches. Consequently, the modified LLDPE, having high zero-shear viscosity, became a thermorheologically complex melt. Moreover, it should be noted that the drawdown force, defined as the uniaxial elongational force at a constant draw ratio, was significantly enhanced for the blends. Enhancement of elongational viscosity was also detected. The drawdown force and elongational viscosity are marked for the thermally modified blend as compared with those for the blend of thermally modified pure components. Intermolecular cross-linking reactions between LDPE and LLDPE, yielding polymers with more than two branch points per chain, result in marked strain-hardening in the elongational viscosity behavior even at small strain. The recovery curve of the oscillatory modulus after the shear modification is further evidence of a branched structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of Cavern and Well Stability at the West Hackberry SPR Site Using a Full-Dome Model

This report presents computational analyses that simulate the structural response of caverns at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) West Hackberry site. The cavern field comprises 22 caverns. Five caverns (6, 7, 8, 9, 11) were acquired from industry and have unusual shapes and a history dating back to 1946. The other 17 caverns (101-117) were leached according to SPR standards in the mid-1980s and have tall cylindrical shapes. The history of the caverns and their shapes are simulated in a three-dimensional geomechanics model of the site that predicts deformations, strains, and stresses. Future leaching scenarios corresponding to oil drawdowns using fresh water are also simulated by increasing the volume of the caverns. Cavern pressures are varied in the model to capture operational practices in the field. The results of the finite element model are interpreted to provide information on the current and future status of subsidence, well integrity, and cavern stability. The most significant results in this report are relevant to Cavern 6. The cavern is shaped like a bowl with a large ceiling span and is in close proximity to Cavern 9. The analyses predict tensile stresses at the edge of the ceiling during repressurization of Cavern 6 following workover conditions. During a workover the cavern is at low pressure to service a well. The wellhead pressures are atmospheric. When the workover is complete, the cavern is repressurized. The resulting elastic stresses are sufficient to cause tension around the edge of the large ceiling span. With time, these stresses relax to a compressive state because of salt creep. However, the potential for salt fracture and propagation exists, particularly towards Cavern 9. With only 200 feet of salt between the caverns, the operational consequences must be examined if the two caverns become connected. A critical time may be during a workover of Cavern 9 in part because of the operational vulnerabilities, but also because dilatant damage is predicted under the ledge that forms the lower lobe in the cavern. The remaining caverns have no significant issues regarding cavern stability and may be safely enlarged during subsequent oil drawdowns. Predicted well strains and subsidence are significant and consequently future remedial actions may be necessary. These predicted well strains certainly suggest appropriate monitoring through a well-logging program. Subsidence is currently being monitored.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Water Use by Utility-Scale Solar on Groundwater Resources of the Chuckwalla Basin, CA: Final Modeling Report

The DOE and BLM identified 285,000 acres of desert land in the Chuckwalla valley in the western U.S., for solar energy development. In addition to several approved solar projects, a pumped storage project was recently proposed to pump nearly 8000 acre-ft-yr of groundwater to store and stabilize solar energy output. This study aims at providing estimates of the amount of naturally-occurring recharge, and to estimate the impact of the pumping on the water table. To better provide the locations and intensity of natural recharge, this study employs an integrated, physically-based hydrologic model, PAWS+CLM, to calculate recharge. Then, the simulated recharge is used in a parameter estimation package to calibrate spatially-distributed K field. This design is to incorporate all available observational data, including soil moisture monitoring stations, groundwater head, and estimates of groundwater conductivity, to constrain the modeling. To address the uncertainty of the soil parameters, an ensemble of simulations are conducted, and the resulting recharges are either rejected or accepted based on calibrated groundwater head and local variation of the K field. The results indicate that the natural total inflow to the study domain is between 7107 and 12,772 afy. During the initial-fill phase of pumped storage project, the total outflow exceeds the upper bound estimate of the inflow. If the initial-fill is annualized to 20 years, the average pumping is more than the lower bound of inflows. The results indicate after adding the pumped storage project, the system will nearing, if not exceeding, its maximum renewable pumping capacity. The accepted recharges lead to a drawdown range of 24 to 45 ft for an assumed specific yield of 0.05. However, the drawdown is sensitive to this parameter, whereas there is insufficient data to adequately constrain this parameter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Safeguards in Pyroprocessing: an Integrated Model Development and Measurement Data Analysis

Pyroprocessing is an electrochemical method based on the molten salt electrolyte, mainly the LiCl-KCl eutectic molten salt, to recycle the used nuclear fuel. For a conceptual design of commercial pyroprocessing facility, tons of special nuclear materials, namely U and Pu, may be involved, which could be used for non-peaceful purposes if they are diverted. Effective safeguards approaches have to be developed prior to the development and construction of a pyroprocessing facility. Present research focused on two main objectives, namely calculating the properties of nuclear species in LiCl-KCl molten salt and developing integrated model to safeguard a pyroprocessing facility. Understanding the characteristics of special nuclear materials in LiCl-KCl eutectic salt is extremely important to understand their behaviors in an electrorefiner. The model development for the separation processes in the pyroprocessing, including electrorefining, actinide drawdown, and rare earth drawdown benefits the understanding of material transport and separation performance of these processes under various conditions. The output signals, such as potential, current, and species concentration contribute to the material balance closure and provide safeguards signatures to detect the scenarios of diversion. U and Pu are the two main elements concerned in this study due to our interest in safeguards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hydraulic Testing of Lost Lake Aquifer Near Recovery Wells RWM018, RWM 3, and RWM 5

An aquifer pumping test was conducted on the Lost Lake Aquifer Zone (LLAZ) at the recently installed recovery well RWM018 in accordance with the approved test plan (Dixon, 2018). The objective of the testing was to determine baseline well performance parameters and aquifer hydraulic conductivity. Well performance parameters determined included specific capacity, well efficiency, and head loss coefficients. The specific capacity of RWM018 was determined to be approximately 3.2 gpm/ft of drawdown. At baseline conditions (all active recovery wells operating except RWM018), RWM018 has approximately 26 ft of head above the well screen. This suggests that RWM018 can sustain a maximum pumping rate of 83 gpm with drawdown at the top of screen. Well efficiency was inversely related to pumping rate and decreased from 97% to 91% over a pumping range of approximately 20 to 55 gpm. These results suggest that RWM018 is an efficient well and does not require any further well development activities. The aquifer head loss coefficient was determined to be 2.1 ft/ft 3 /min and the well loss coefficient was determined to be 0.03 min 2 /ft 5 .

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hydraulic Testing of Lost Lake Aquifer Near Recovery Wells RWM018, RWM 3, and RWM 5

An aquifer pumping test was conducted on the Lost Lake Aquifer Zone (LLAZ) at the recently installed recovery well RWM018 in accordance with the approved test plan (Dixon, 2018). The objective of the testing was to determine baseline well performance parameters and aquifer hydraulic conductivity. Well performance parameters determine d included specific capacity, well efficiency, and head loss coefficients. The specific capacity of RWM018 was determined to be approximately 3.2 gpm/ft of drawdown. At baseline conditions (all active recovery wells operating except RWM018), RWM018 has approximately 26 ft of head above the well screen. This suggests that RWM018 can sustain a maximum pumping rate of 83 gpm with drawdown at the top of screen. Well efficiency was inversely related to pumping rate and decreased from 97% to 91% over a pumping range of approximately 20 to 55 gpm. These results suggest that RWM018 is an efficient well and does not require any further well development activities. The aquifer head loss coefficient was determined to be 2.1 ft/ft 3 /min and the well loss coefficient was determined to be 0.03 min 2 /ft 5 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗