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At least 73 records · Page 4

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Classification of Intensity Distributions of Transmission Eigenchannels of Disordered Nanophotonic Structures Using Machine Learning

Light-matter interaction optimization in complex nanophotonic structures is a critical step towards the tailored performance of photonic devices. The increasing complexity of such systems requires new optimization strategies beyond intuitive methods. For example, in disordered photonic structures, the spatial distribution of energy densities has large random fluctuations due to the interference of multiply scattered electromagnetic waves, even though the statistically averaged spatial profiles of the transmission eigenchannels are universal. Classification of these eigenchannels for a single configuration based on visualization of intensity distributions is difficult. However, successful classification could provide vital information about disordered nanophotonic structures. Emerging methods in machine learning have enabled new investigations into optimized photonic structures. In this work, we combine intensity distributions of the transmission eigenchannels and the transmitted speckle-like intensity patterns to classify the eigenchannels of a single configuration of disordered photonic structures using machine learning techniques. Specifically, we leverage supervised learning methods, such as decision trees and fully connected neural networks, to achieve classification of these transmission eigenchannels based on their intensity distributions with an accuracy greater than 99%, even with a dataset including photonic devices of various disorder strengths. Simultaneous classification of the transmission eigenchannels and the relative disorder strength of the nanophotonic structure is also possible. Our results open new directions for machine learning assisted speckle-based metrology and demonstrate a novel approach to classifying nanophotonic structures based on their electromagnetic field distributions. These insights can be of paramount importance for optimizing light-matter interactions at the nanoscale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Distributed Lunar Data Platform with Advanced Machine Learning Capabilities in Support of Lunar Science and Exploration

The United States 2020 Space Policy directive declares that NASA, in cooperation with private industry, will “extend human economic activity into deep space by establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon”. This goal will require advanced data management, as well as analysis, modeling and representation of lunar information in order to prepare for Artemis human missions, lunar science investigations and exploration. To meet this requirement, we conceptualize and present an implementation strategy for a distributed platform for lunar data retrieval, inferencing and analysis, which will be based on federated learning and the NASA Celestial Mapping System (CMS). In addition to demonstrating the imperative of enabling lunar-borne data to remain in-situ but still accessible, this presentation will also include examples of how third parties could contribute both datasets and new functionality into this platform using an AI-based data import pipeline and a plug-in architecture respectively.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Cyberattack Detection and Mitigation on Central Volt‐VAr Using Circuit Law and Machine Learning

ABSTRACT In a distribution grid, voltage is maintained within a nominal range through a Volt‐VAr function that controls capacitor banks, reactive power of distributed energy resources (DER), and on‐load tap changers (OLTC). Availability of communications helps with the implementation of central Volt‐VAr control; however, it also opens the system to cyberattacks, causing voltage disturbances. Previous work has shown the adverse impacts of false data injection (FDI) on the central Volt‐VAr control; however, very few works have studied methods to detect and mitigate FDI on Volt‐VAr control. This paper addresses gaps in the detection and mitigation of FDI on the measurement packets of a central Volt‐VAr control. This work uses a two‐stage algorithm for cyberattack detection since the accuracy of a single‐stage machine learning (ML)–based detection method decreases while dealing with unseen data. The first stage is based on the verification of measurements against circuit laws, and the second stage utilizes a tree search algorithm and an ML method to detect the falsified data. This paper compares long short‐term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) as the employed ML algorithms. Finally, the mitigation algorithm replaces the falsified data with the estimated output of the ML algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested for several cases using the IEEE 13‐bus test system in PSCAD software.

Beikbabaei, Milad [Bradley Department of Electrica↗

Investigating the influence of particle distribution on force and torque statistics using hierarchical machine learning

An accurate representation of hydrodynamic force and torque experienced by every particle in a distribution can be obtained from particle resolved (PR) simulations. These unique quantities are influenced by the deterministic position of surrounding particles. However, systems simulated with this methodology are typically limited to particles due to the involved computational cost. This resource requirement is a major bottleneck in analyzing the effect of variations in particle distribution. Here, this article attempts to address this bottleneck by availing relatively inexpensive deep learning models. The surrogate models that we employ in this article use a physics‐based hierarchical framework and symmetry‐preserving neural networks to achieve robustness with limited training data. This article first performs additional generalizability tests on PR data of distinct distributions that are not involved in the training process. The models are then deployed on several different particle distributions. Impact of clustering and structure on the observed statistics are investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Networks for Voltage Estimation in Active Distribution Networks

Voltage estimation plays a key role in ensuring the effective control and reliability of distribution networks. However, traditional machine learning methods often fail to capture the details of the distribution network’s topology. To overcome this challenge, graph convolutional networks (GCN) have emerged as an alternative. Graph convolutional networks inherently capture the topology of the grid, utilizing correlations to achieve precise voltage estimation. Other machine learning models and conventional GCNs fail to account for the distribution line characteristics found in the real world, limiting their effectiveness. This paper proposes an advanced variant of GCN called the Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Network (IA-GCN). The IA-GCN layer incorporates the magnitude of the impedance into the graph convolution mechanism, allowing it to capture topological nuances and provide valuable insights into node interrelationships by considering impedance as an intrinsic dimension. The performance of the IA-GCN layer is then compared with that of GCN and GraphSAGE layers through a surrogate model for voltage estimation. The performance analysis demonstrates that IA-GCN outperforms GCN by reducing the MAE by 87.55% and improving the R-squared value by 98%.

Ravi, Abhijith↗

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid Entanglement Distribution between Remote Microwave Quantum Computers Empowered by Machine Learning

Superconducting microwave circuits with Josephson junctions, the major platform for quantum computing, can only reach the full capability when connected. This requires an efficient protocol to distribute microwave entanglement. While quantum computers typically use discrete-variable (DV) methods for information encoding, the entire continuous-variable (CV) degree of freedom in electromagnetic fields must be utilized to achieve the highest entanglement distribution rate. Here, we propose a hybrid protocol to resolve the incompatibility between DV microwave quantum computers and CV quantum communications. CV microwave entanglement is distributed using optical swapping of optical-microwave entanglement pairs. To interface with DV microwave quantum computers, we further design a hybrid circuit to simultaneously convert and distill high-quality DV entanglement from noisy CV entanglement. The hybrid circuit is trained with machine-learning algorithms, ensuring high entanglement fidelity and generation rate. In conclusion, our work not only provides a practical method to realize efficient quantum links for superconducting microwave quantum computers, but also opens avenues to bridge the gap between DV and CV quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A machine learning approach to galaxy properties: joint redshift–stellar mass probability distributions with Random Forest

We demonstrate that highly accurate joint redshift–stellar mass probability distribution functions (PDFs) can be obtained using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm, even with few photometric bands available. As an example, we use the Dark Energy Survey (DES), combined with the COSMOS2015 catalogue for redshifts and stellar masses. We build two ML models: one containing deep photometry in the griz bands, and the second reflecting the photometric scatter present in the main DES survey, with carefully constructed representative training data in each case. We validate our joint PDFs for 10 699 test galaxies by utilizing the copula probability integral transform and the Kendall distribution function, and their univariate counterparts to validate the marginals. Benchmarked against a basic set-up of the template-fitting code bagpipes, our ML-based method outperforms template fitting on all of our predefined performance metrics. In addition to accuracy, the RF is extremely fast, able to compute joint PDFs for a million galaxies in just under 6 min with consumer computer hardware. Such speed enables PDFs to be derived in real time within analysis codes, solving potential storage issues. As part of this work we have developed galpro 1, a highly intuitive and efficient python package to rapidly generate multivariate PDFs on-the-fly. galpro is documented and available for researchers to use in their cosmology and galaxy evolution studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of machine learning for the estimation of electron energy distribution from optical emission spectra

Abstract This paper discusses the use of probabilistic deep neural networks for the prediction of the electron energy probability function in low-temperature non-thermal plasmas. The neural networks are trained using optical emission spectroscopy and Langmuir probe measurements, with the goal of providing a reliable estimate of the electron energy probability function solely from optical emission data. The performance of both non-Bayesian and Bayesian networks is evaluated. It is found that Bayesian models are preferable as they assign a higher level of uncertainty to their prediction especially when the dataset used to train them is small. This work describes one of the many potential applications of machine learning in plasma science and technology.

Physics↗

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗

Non-Gaussian estimates of tensions in cosmological parameters

We discuss how to efficiently and reliably estimate the level of agreement and disagreement on parameter determinations from different experiments, fully taking into account non-Gaussianities in the parameter posteriors. We develop two families of scalable algorithms that allow us to perform this type of calculations in increasing number of dimensions and for different levels of tensions. One family of algorithms rely on kernel density estimates of posterior distributions while the other relies on machine learning modeling of the posterior distribution with normalizing flows. We showcase their effectiveness and accuracy with a set of benchmark examples and find both methods agree with each other and the true tension within 0.5σ in difficult cases and generally to 0.2σ or better. This allows us to study the level of internal agreement between different measurements of the clustering of cosmological structures from the Dark Energy Survey and their agreement with measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background from the Planck satellite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗