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NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.

MacNeice, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessing Government and Industry Roles to Accelerate Commercialization of Advanced Reactors and Supporting Fuel Cycles

Recent growth in private sector interest and investment in advanced reactor designs signals a new period in the greater than six decade pursuit of commercial nuclear technology. This nuclear entrepreneurship is primarily centered in the North America; meanwhile, national programs in China, France, India, Russia, and South Korea also feature active efforts to design, construct, operate and export advanced reactors .The business case for most private ventures calls for an aggressive commercialization timeline-tied to expectations for returns on investment. Finally, strategic energy portfolio projections and utility resource planning point to the 2030 - 2050 window as the period of greatest need for dispatchable, energy intensive, low-carbon generation options to address retirement of baseload capacity, increased penetration of renewables and economy-scale decarbonization. However, lead times for commercialization range from 30 to 50 years based on more traditional government-centric timelines. Fuel development and fuel cycle infrastructure deployment represent parallel timelines that directly influence the timeline for commercialization of many advanced reactor concepts. While multi-decade development periods appear to be commonplace for new nuclear projects, such timelines were not always the norm-three separate countries set out to develop civilian commercial power from fundamental nuclear principles, in just over a decade, on average. The US led light-water reactor (LWR) development in the 1950's, the UK pioneered a gas-cooled reactor (GCR) concept in the same time period, and Canada forged the path to commercializing the heavy-water reactor (HWR) starting in the mid-1950's and into the mid-1960's. The necessary fuel cycle facilities to support the commercial reactor design also did not appear suddenly, but were a collaborative effort between government and private partners. In this paper, the efforts of these three governments and their private industry partnerships in reactor and fuel cycle development are explored, and a select sample of representative milestones for each is presented, with the roles that each group played. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

Geothermal project development in the United States may be subject to numerous permits, authorizations, and other regulatory requirements at the federal, state, and local level, which are necessary to address potential environmental and resource impacts at geothermal project sites. This report presents the findings of our study, including an analysis of federal, state, and local geothermal regulatory and permitting processes, case studies analyzing site-specific attributes that may impact project development at four selected geothermal project sites, an analysis of cost and timeline implications for geothermal project development, and the results of a qualitative study focused on inter-agency coordination and collaboration efforts between federal, state, and/or local agencies for geothermal projects located in California and Nevada. Our analysis found that development timelines may be impacted by multiple federal and state environmental review processes and duplicative permitting requirements as well as coordination efforts between numerous federal, state, and local agencies involved in issuing authorizations and permits necessary for project development. In addition, projects in California and Nevada may face site-specific environmental challenges due to the presence of sensitive resources (e.g., biological species and species habitat, cultural resources) that may result in project construction delays. Our study results also indicate that protracted geothermal development timelines caused by delays in acquiring necessary permits and environmental reviews may result in loss of generated electricity revenue and additional financing costs, which may increase economic uncertainty associated with project development. Through our qualitative analysis, we found that utilization of best practices, including tiering to existing environmental review documents and developing memoranda of understanding, which clearly delineate agency roles and responsibilities may reduce overall project timelines, costs, and uncertainties associated with geothermal project development in California and Nevada.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada [Slides]

This presentation presents the findings of our study, including an analysis of federal, state, and local geothermal regulatory and permitting processes, case studies analyzing site-specific attributes that may impact project development at four selected geothermal project sites, an analysis of cost and timeline implications for geothermal project development, and the results of a qualitative study focused on inter-agency coordination and collaboration efforts between federal, state, and/or local agencies for geothermal projects located in California and Nevada. Our analysis found that development timelines may be impacted by multiple federal and state environmental review processes and duplicative permitting requirements as well as coordination efforts between numerous federal, state, and local agencies involved in issuing authorizations and permits necessary for project development. In addition, projects in California and Nevada may face site-specific environmental challenges due to the presence of sensitive resources (e.g., biological species and species habitat, cultural resources) that may result in project construction delays. Our study results also indicate that protracted geothermal development timelines caused by delays in acquiring necessary permits and environmental reviews may result in loss of generated electricity revenue and additional financing costs, which may increase economic uncertainty associated with project development. Through our qualitative analysis, we found that utilization of best practices, including tiering to existing environmental review documents and developing memoranda of understanding, which clearly delineate agency roles and responsibilities may reduce overall project timelines, costs, and uncertainties associated with geothermal project development in California and Nevada.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2006

Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

International Space Station (ISS) payload developers submit their payload science requirements for the development of on-board execution timelines. The ISS systems required to execute the payload science operations must be represented as constraints for the execution timeline. Payload developers use a software application, User Requirements Collection (URC), to submit their requirements by selecting a simplified representation of ISS system constraints. To fully represent the complex ISS systems, the constraints require a level of detail that is beyond the insight of the payload developer. To provide the complex representation of the ISS system constraints, HOSC operations personnel, specifically the Payload Activity Requirements Coordinators (PARC), manually translate the payload developers simplified constraints into detailed ISS system constraints used for scheduling the payload activities in the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). This paper describes the implementation for a software application, User Requirements Integration (URI), developed to automate the manual ISS constraint translation process.

Muery, Kim↗

NASA NTRS2003

Low/Medium Density Biomass, Coastal and Ocean Carbon: A Carbon Cycle Mission

As part of the Global Carbon Cycle research effort, an agency-wide planning initiative was organized between October 2000 and June 2001 by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) at the behest of the Associate Administrator for Earth Science. The goal was to define future research and technology development activities needed for implementing a cohesive scientific observation plan. A timeline for development of missions necessary to acquire the selected new measurements was laid out, and included missions for low - medium density terrestrial biomass / coastal ocean / and ocean carbon. This paper will begin with the scientific justification and measurement requirements for these specific activities, explore the options for having separate or combined missions, and follow-up with an implementation study centered on a hyperspectral imager at geosynchronous altitudes.

Esper, Jaime↗

NASA NTRS2017

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived From Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

Since the 1960s, scientists have conjectured that water icecould survive in the cold, permanently shadowed craters located at the Moons poles Clementine (1994), Lunar Prospector (1998),Chandrayaan-1 (2008), and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) (2009) lunar probes have provided data indicating the existence of large quantities of water ice at the lunar poles The Mini-SAR onboard Chandrayaan-1discovered more than 40 permanently shadowed craters near the lunar north pole that are thought to contain 600 million metric tons of water ice. Using neutron spectrometer data, the Lunar Prospector science team estimated a water ice content (1.5 +-0.8 wt in the regolith) found in the Moons polar cold trap sand estimated the total amount of water at both poles at 2 billion metric tons Using Mini-RF and spectrometry data, the LRO LCROSS science team estimated the water ice content in the regolith in the south polar region to be 5.6 +-2.9 wt. On the basis of the above scientific data, it appears that the water ice content can vary from 1-10 wt and the total quantity of LPI at both poles can range from 600 million to 2 billion metric tons NTP offers significant benefits for lunar missions and can take advantage of the leverage provided from using LDPs when they become available by transitioning to LANTR propulsion. LANTR provides a variablethrust and Isp capability, shortens burn times and extends engine life, and allows bipropellant operation The combination of LANTR and LDP has performance capability equivalent to that of a hypothetical gaseousfuel core NTR (effective Isp 1575 s) and can lead to a robust LTS with unique mission capabilities that include short transit time crewed cargo transports and routine commuter flights to the Moon The biggest challenge to making this vision a reality will be the production of increasing amounts of LDP andthe development of propellant depots in LEO, LLO and LPO. An industry-operated, privately financed venture, with NASA as its initial customer, might provide a possible blueprint for future development and operation With industry interested in developing cislunar space and commerce, and competitive forces at work, the timeline for developing this capability could well be accelerated, quicker than any of us can imagine, and just the beginning of things to come.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Factors Operability Timeline Analysis to Improve the Processing Flow of the Orion Spacecraft

The Constellation Program (CxP) Orion vehicle goes through several areas and stages of processing before its launched at the Kennedy Space Center. In order to have efficient and effective processing, all of the activities need to be analyzed. This was accomplished by first developing a timeline of events that included each activity, and then each activity was analyzed by operability experts and human factors experts with spacecraft processing experience. This papers focus is to explain the results and the process for developing this human factors operability timeline analysis to improve the processing flow of Orion.

Schlierf, Roland↗

NASA NTRS2009

Rendezvous Integration Complexities of NASA Human Flight Vehicles

Propellant-optimal trajectories, relative sensors and navigation, and docking/capture mechanisms are rendezvous disciplines that receive much attention in the technical literature. However, other areas must be considered. These include absolute navigation, maneuver targeting, attitude control, power generation, software development and verification, redundancy management, thermal control, avionics integration, robotics, communications, lighting, human factors, crew timeline, procedure development, orbital debris risk mitigation, structures, plume impingement, logistics, and in some cases extravehicular activity. While current and future spaceflight programs will introduce new technologies and operations concepts, the complexity of integrating multiple systems on multiple spacecraft will remain. The systems integration task may become more difficult as increasingly complex software is used to meet current and future automation, autonomy, and robotic operation requirements.

Brazzel, Jack P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of Intralaminar Progressive Damage and Failure Analysis Using an Efficient Evaluation Framework

Reducing the timeline for development and certification for composite structures has been a long standing objective of the aerospace industry. This timeline can be further exacerbated when attempting to integrate new fiber-reinforced composite materials due to the large number of testing required at every level of design. computational progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) attempts to mitigate this effect; however, new PDFA methods have been slow to be adopted in industry since material model evaluation techniques have not been fully defined. This study presents an efficient evaluation framework which uses a piecewise verification and validation (V&V) approach for PDFA methods. Specifically, the framework is applied to evaluate PDFA research codes within the context of intralaminar damage. Methods are incrementally taken through various V&V exercises specifically tailored to study PDFA intralaminar damage modeling capability. Finally, methods are evaluated against a defined set of success criteria to highlight successes and limitations.

Hyder, Imran↗

NASA NTRS2015

Human Exploration of Phobos

This study developed, analyzed, and compared mission architectures for human exploration of Mars' Moons within the context of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. METHODS: All trades assumed conjunction class missions to Phobos (approximately 500 days in Mars system) as it was considered the driving case for the transportation architecture. All architectures assumed that the Mars Transit Habitat would remain in a High Mars Orbit with crewmembers transferring between HMO and Phobos in a small crew taxi vehicle. A reference science / exploration program was developed including performance of a standard set of tasks at 55 locations on the Phobos surface. Detailed EVA timelines were developed using realistic flight rules to accomplish the reference science tasks using exploration systems ranging from jetpacks to multi-person pressurized excursion vehicles combined with Phobos surface and orbital (L1, L4/L5, 20km Distant Retrograde Orbit) habitat options. Detailed models of propellant mass, crew time, science productivity, radiation exposure, systems and consumables masses, and other figures of merit were integrated to enable quantitative comparison of different architectural options. Options for pre-staging assets using solar electric propulsion (SEP) vs. delivering all systems with the crew were also evaluated. Seven discrete mission architectures were evaluated. RESULTS: The driving consideration for habitat location (Phobos surface vs. orbital) was radiation exposure, with an estimated reduction in cumulative mission radiation exposure of up to 34% (vs. Mars orbital mission) when the habitat is located on the Phobos surface, compared with only 3-6% reduction for a habitat in a 20km DRO. The exploration utility of lightweight unpressurized excursion vehicles was limited by the need to remain within 20 minutes of Solar Particle Event radiation protection combined with complex GN&C systems required by the non-intuitive and highly-variable gravitational environment. Two-person pressurized excursion vehicles as well as mobile surface habitats offer significant exploration capability and operational benefits compared with unpressurized EVA mobility systems at the cost of increased system and propellant mass. Mechanical surface translation modes (i.e. hopping) were modeled and offer potentially significant propellant savings and the possibility of extended exploration operations between crewed missions. Options for extending the utilization of the crew taxi vehicle were examined, including use as an exploration asset for Phobos surface exploration (when combined with an alternate mobility system) and as an EVA platform, both on Phobos and for contingency EVA on the Mars Transit Habitat. CONCLUSIONS: Human exploration of Phobos offers a scientifically meaningful first step towards human Mars surface missions that develops and validates transportation, habitation, and exploration systems and operations in advance of the Mars landing systems.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Methods integrating innate and adaptive immune responses in human in vitro immunization assays

Rapid vaccine development and innovative immunotherapeutics are critical in the fight against emerging outbreaks and global pandemic threats, yet the high costs and prolonged timelines for developing new vaccines underscore the urgent need for robust, predictive pre-clinical testing platforms. The rapid down-selection of vaccine candidates and identification of optimal vaccine formulations can be performed using human in vitro immunization (IVI) assays that recapitulate the complex interactions of the innate and adaptive human immune response. In this review, we present a comprehensive evaluation of three key IVI platforms: the whole blood assay (WBA), monocyte-derived dendritic cell (MoDC) assay with dendritic cell-T cell interface assay (DTI), and the microphysiological human tissue construct assay (HTC). The WBA offers a cost-effective and straightforward approach, while the MoDC + DTI system represents the current gold standard for balancing experimental efficiency with immunological complexity. The HTC assay, by mimicking both spatial and temporal aspects of immune interactions, provides enhanced physiological relevance. We discuss the methodological advantages and limitations of each platform, explore their roles in rapid vaccine candidate screening, and propose strategies for integrating these assays with complementary in vivo models. These insights pave the way for refining IVI assays and accelerating the translational pipeline for next-generation vaccines and immunotherapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Preliminary Scaling Analysis of Reactivity Initiated Accidents

The life cycle for new fuel development requires extensive modeling and testing of the fuel concept from benchtop scale experiments to full scale assemblies in prototypical conditions. As a result, the timeline to develop new fuel types can extend up to 20 years and hinders the ability to develop a diverse assortment of fuel types. The licensing of recent reactor designs such as Westinghouse's AP-600/1000 designs utilized a scaling methodology to perform nuclear safety code validation on experimental test data from scaled down thermal hydraulic facilities. The advantage of using a scaling methodology was a significant cost decrease in the testing program because it avoided needing to build full scale prototypes and focused on improving safety code's ability to predict test data. This study investigates how to apply a scaling hierarchy for fuel performance during a Reactivity Initiated Accident that could be implemented with scaling methods such as Hierarchical Two Tiered Scaling (H2TS), Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA), and Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1989

A strategy for Space Station user integration

An approach for the development of a flexible end-to-end user integration process for the Space Station is proposed. Users are assigned to an integration class based on the integration complexity of their payloads. The user, user sponsor, and payload accomodations manager develop an integration timeline for the user. The development of techniques to manage multiple payloads and increments over the life of the Space Station, while minimizing interactions between the integration flows of individual users is considered. The integration classes are defined and the strategic, tactical, and execution planning phases of the process are described.

Levitt, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Digital Prototyping Methods to Enable Product Development Analysis Cycle Compression in Aerospace Systems

Historically, the product development life cycle (spanning from origination of a systems concept to initial delivery or fielding) for large-scale aerospace systems is 10-25 years. Examples of recent programs exhibiting this timeline are the Space Shuttle (13 years), , International Space Station (18 years), NASA Hubble telescope (16 years), USAF F-35 Strike Fighter (22 years), Missile Defense Agency THAAD (21 years), USAF V-22 Osprey (26 years), USAF B-2 Spirt (19 years), US Army RAH-66 Comanche (22 years, cancelled prior to fielding), James Webb Space Telescope (25 years), Space Launch System (10 years). This list illustrates the challenges of developing and fielding a modern integrated multi-disciplinary aerospace system. These development timelines are often preceded by significant research and development programs and followed by multiple increments, blocks, or spirals to reach planned operational capability. In the modern era of aerospace system acquisition, there is significant pressure to reduce system development timelines to meet system objectives and enable competitiveness in the current industry and landscape. Across the aerospace industry, a range of rapid acquisition and prototyping programs are seeking to achieve system development within timelines considerably less than 10 years. Notably, in September of 2019, NASA issued a solicitation for the development and demonstration of a Human Landing System (HLS) to deliver humans to the lunar surface by 2024 (5 years) and for the development and demonstration of a more sustainable HLS by 2026 (7 years). Lengthy product development cycle timelines are a product of multiple factors ranging from programmatic, sociological, technical, and systems engineering issues. New approaches in systems engineering provide new ways to enable these compressed development timelines. These approaches employ expanded application of advanced systems engineering methods and cross-cutting digital tools to accelerate system development, utilizing digital prototyping to connect maturing sub-system or component technologies into system or system-of-systems hardware prototypes. Approaches such as the use of system integrating physics relationships to reduce the number of design analysis cycle iterations and state analysis modeling to reduce necessary software testing (and improving coverage of system execution scenarios) represent steps forward in reducing the engineering time needed to field new systems. In addition to cost, schedule and performance benefits, expanded digital exploration and demonstration reduce risk in live system test and demonstration. This incremental demonstration approach, where digital prototyping and demonstration leads and informs full system test and demonstration, could be more important for space applications because of the increased difficulty of test and demonstration of space systems and architectures. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at Marshall Space Flight Center merges traditional multi-disciplinary concept definition methods with modern, cross-cutting systems engineering concepts to enable iterative design and analysis of space architectures and systems through coordinated, strategic management of human capital, technical processes, and technology. This paper provides an overview of that approach, including recent examples and a strategic path forward to enabling continued reduction of aerospace system product development life cycles.

Michael D Watson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robotics Plan in Support of DOME Testbed Operations

Various robotic tooling options have been evaluated for the NRIC DOME concept of operations (ConOps). Framatome was contracted to develop a wide-ranging list of commercial off the shelf (COTS) and custom robotic systems to be considered for performing the DOME ConOps functions. Subsequent project tasks from Framatome narrowed down the list and scored the most viable options. The abbreviated list, and associated scoring, has been reviewed and assessed to provide formal recommendations for the robotic ConOps functions of DOME. The overhead telescoping mast & Kraft arm assembly is recommended as the primary system for reactor demobilization and removal. The estimated cost is $\$700$K with a timeline to develop and deliver of about 2.5 years. The mast & Kraft arm would still require an overhead lift system for mobilization and installation. Either the refurbished polar crane or a new gantry crane delivery platform could both serve as the overhead lift and delivery system. The estimated costs for the refurbishment polar crane and new gantry crane systems are, respectively, $\$4.4$M and $\$3$M with about 2.5 years to develop and deliver. A Brokk + Kraft crawler & arm is recommended as a secondary robotic system to support the overhead mast & Kraft arm system. The Brokk + Kraft crawler & arm would cost an estimated $\$726$k and would take about 1.5 years to develop and deliver. The Boston Dynamics SPOT robot is also recommended for the in-service monitoring during experimentation operations. The estimated cost is $\$220$K with a timeline to deliver of 8-14 months. The Elios 3 aerial drone is recommended to perform large area radiation dose rate mapping and visual inspections. The estimated cost is a $\$100$K and will also need about 8-14 months to develop and deliver. A mockup rig is also recommended to be procured an employed to test & verify the robotic capabilities as well as provide needed training for operations personnel. It is estimated that a mockup rig would cost about $\$500$k and would take up to a year to develop and build.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Maintenance Human Factors and Flight Safety

This chapter will chronicle the journey of the community of operators, regulators, and researchers who embarked upon the task of identifying critical human factors of maintenance and inspection, establishing a database and research tools, developing practical strategies for reducing the risks of maintenance and inspection errors, and understanding its critical role in preserving flight safety. We will take a historical perspective, developing a timeline that is largely driven by key events such as accidents and regulatory/government actions and initiatives. Part 1 focuses on how the field of maintenance human factors was built, beginning in the late 1980’s. Part 2 describes the development of methods and tools for meeting the maintenance human factors challenges identified. Finally, Part 3 updates the original chapter by focusing on issues that have persisted or emerged since 2010.

maintenance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-25778-DND

Testing required to design and certify aircraft structures has increased dramatically with the growth in use of composite materials, and the development time and cost have become an issue as industry looks towards the next generation of aircraft. To help address this challenge, NASA has formed an industry-spanning consortium with the goal of cutting by 30% today's 10-year timeline for developing and certifying composite aircraft structures. This goal is to be achieved by infusing leading edge, physics-based tools to improve the prediction of the response and failure of composite aerospace structures. The plan for the public-private partnership of NASA, the FAA, airframe manufacturers, aircraft engine manufacturers, and several universities is to conduct joint research under the five-year Advanced Composites Program (ACP). The emphasis of the ACP project is the development of damage prediction and non-destructive inspection methods capabilities that are sufficiently reliable to enable a reduction in the element and subcomponent testing necessary for design and certification. ACP also is expected to create rapid design tools to speed preliminary design and improve safety and performance. A critical element of this research concerns the residual strength of postbuckled stiffened panels with impact damage. This presentation will discuss different aspects of ongoing research on the prediction of structural collapse due to skin/stiffener separation. In particular, the presentation will examine issues that must be addressed in the analysis, such as R-curve toughening, delamination migration, bridging, as well as some unexpected effects of ply orientation.

Carlos G Davila↗