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At least 73 records · Page 4

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Can Floor Covering Influence Buildings’ Demand Flexibility?

Although the thermal mass of floors in buildings has been demonstrated to help shift cooling load, there is still a lack of information about how floor covering can influence the floor’s load shifting capability and buildings’ demand flexibility. To fill this gap, we estimated demand flexibility based on the daily peak cooling load reduction for different floor configurations and regions, using EnergyPlus simulations. As a demand response strategy, we used precooling and global temperature adjustment. The result demonstrated an adverse impact of floor covering on the building’s demand flexibility. Specifically, under the same demand response strategy, the daily peak cooling load reductions were up to 20–34% for a concrete floor whereas they were only 17–29% for a carpet-covered concrete floor. This is because floor covering hinders convective coupling between the concrete floor surface and the zone air and reduces radiative heat transfer between the concrete floor surface and the surrounding environment. In hot climates such as Phoenix, floor covering almost negated the concrete floor’s load shifting capability and yielded low demand flexibility as a wood floor, representing low thermal mass. Sensitivity analyses showed that floor covering’s effects can be more profound with a larger carpet-covered area, a greater temperature adjustment depth, or a higher radiant heat gain. With this effect ignored for a given building, its demand flexibility would be overestimated, which could prevent grid operators from obtaining sufficient demand flexibility to maintain a grid. Our findings also imply that for more efficient grid-interactive buildings, a traditional standard for floor design could be modified with increasing renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Future Battery Material Demand Analysis Based on U.S. Department of Energy R&D Targets

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) supports research, development, and deployment of efficient, sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy, and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the development and adoption of new technologies, VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain components, including the energy storage system. In this study, we use Autonomie, Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) vehicle system simulation tool to evaluate future energy storage requirements (power, energy, etc.) for different vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. BatPac, Argonne’s tool dedicated to energy storage pack design and costs, is then used to quantify the materials required for each pack. Market penetrations are then used to estimate the overall material demand worldwide and in the United States, with or without recycling. The results demonstrate that the positive impact of VTO research and development will lead to significant reduction in material compared to business-as-usual due to new anode and cathode designs, along with acceleration in battery cell chemistry penetrations. In terms of material demands, it is observed that lithium demand reaches about 80,000 tons (by a factor of 42–45), nickel demand reaches about 500,000 tons (by a factor of 47–56), manganese demand reaches about 30,000–50,000 tons (by a factor of 20–34), and cobalt demand reaches about 30,000 tons (by a factor of 13–28) in the future by 2050. The individual material demand per unit energy, however, decreases significantly in the future due to advances in VTO research and development activities. The increase in battery material demands is mostly driven by increased electrified vehicle fleet penetration in the markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures

This supplemental document describes the methodology used for determining the dispatch timing of various EUSS demand flexibility measures. Demand flexibility measures are designed to reduce/dispatch electricity demand in buildings during especially beneficial/critical times. The method used in this work utilizes predictions of building loads to generate a schedule that reflects the periods when the building's daily peak load occurs to support decision making in demand flexibility measures. The dispatch schedule generation method described in this document creates an hourly schedule that includes a load dispatch (peak) window for each day for a whole year based on load prediction, with options using different prediction methods: perfect prediction, bin-sampling method, fixed schedule, and outdoor air temperature (OAT)-based prediction method. The perfect prediction method performs a simulation to obtain the annual load profile as predicted load, representing the scenario of perfect load prediction. The bin-sampling method (1) categorizes days into representative bins by temperature characteristics, (2) performs simulations on sample days from each of those bins to create representative (or predicted) load, and (3) assigns representative loads for all days in a year based on the bin categorization. The fixed schedule method defines uniform start and end time of peak window with assumed fixed daily peak time, for all days in a season or a year. The OAT-based prediction method uses the statistics of OAT (minimum and maximum) as the indicators of peak load, with specified delay response time from building loads to temperature. Given the load prediction, daily peak periods are determined as a time window with specified length in each day that include the predicted daily peak load and with a secondary rule such as maximizing energy saving potential. The dispatch schedule generation method is not a standalone measure and is intended to be combined with other demand flexibility measures that could leverage the peak schedule and apply demand controls on specific systems or devices for demand response, such as measures described in "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding" and "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shifting".

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting demand for hydrogen station fueling

Full function hydrogen stations are a reality; fuel cell electric vehicle drivers can pull up to commercial fueling stations and receive 3–5 kg in less than 5 min, for an approximately 300-mile range. The demand for hydrogen is increasing, driven by an increase in the fueling of public and private fuel cell vehicles. This study describes the development and value of a model that simulates stochastic future demand at a hydrogen filling station. The predictive hydrogen demand model described in this article is trained from mathematical models constructed from actual hydrogen fill count, amount, and frequency data. Future fill probabilities inform the hour-by-hour demand profile and the station state of either “available, ready to fill” or “available, filling”. For example, a prediction for a station generally dispensing 5,000 kg a week on a Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. is 16 fills, totaling 48.7 kg, with a 0.52 proportion of time spent in “available, filling” state yielding 31 min of filling time. This is a first-of-its kind, published study on predicting future hydrogen demand by the time of day (e.g., hour-by-hour intervals) and day of week. This study can be used for hydrogen station requirements and operation and maintenance strategies and to assess the impact of demand variations and scenarios. Finally, this article presents the current status of hydrogen demand, the model development methods, a set of sample results. Discussion and conclusions concentrate on the value and use of the proposed model.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Advanced co-simulation framework for assessing the interplay between occupant behaviors and demand flexibility in commercial buildings

With buildings contributing significantly to electricity usage, enabling demand flexibility becomes a challenge, especially when accounting for occupant comfort. This study introduces an innovative co-simulation framework integrating multiple models: heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, building zone load, indoor airflow, supervisory control, and occupant comfort and behavior. Uniquely, this framework allows for a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of building systems and occupant interactions in demand response events. Using this framework, we conducted a case study using a typical small office building model. Specifically, we focused on three areas: (1) the impact of indoor airflow modeling on energy use, occupant comfort, and behaviors forecasting, (2) the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility, and (3) occupant comfort and behaviors under demand response events. Key performance indicators such as energy use, flexibility factor, durations of occupant discomfort and occupant behaviors were analyzed. Our findings indicated variations in energy usage and occupant comfort within demand flexibility events, marked by uncertainty boundaries, with variability in demand shedding up to 57.9%. Here, we concluded that this framework is suitable for analyzing typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms of demand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Potential of Utilizing Thermal Energy Storage Integrated Ground Source Heat Pump System to Reshape Electricity Demand in the United States

Each year, more than 20% of electricity generated in the United States is consumed for meeting the thermal demands (e.g., space cooling, space heating, and water heating) in residential and commercial buildings. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with building’s HVAC systems has the potential to reshape the electric load profile of the building and mitigate the mismatch between the renewable generation and the demand of buildings. A novel ground source heat pump (GSHP) system integrated with underground thermal energy storage (UTES) has been proposed to level the electric demand of buildings while still satisfying their thermal demands. This study assessed the potential impacts of the proposed system with a bottom-up approach. The impacts on the electricity demand in various electricity markets were quantified. The results show that, within the capacity of the existing electric grids, the maximum penetration rate of the proposed system in different wholesale markets could range from 51% to 100%. Altogether, about 46 million single-family detached houses can be retrofitted into the proposed system without increasing the annual peak demand of the corresponding markets. By implementing the proposed system at its maximum penetration rate, the grid-level summer peak demand can be reduced by 9.1% to 18.2%. Meanwhile, at the grid level, the annual electricity consumption would change by –12% to 2%. The nationwide total electricity consumption would be reduced by 9%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demand Response in Residential Energy Code: Technical Brief

As buildings account for over 75% of U.S. electricity use, effectively managing their loads can greatly facilitate the transition towards a clean, reliable grid. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) combine efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communication to provide occupant comfort and productivity while serving the grid as a distributed energy resource (DER). In turn, GEBs can play a key role in ensuring access to an affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern U.S. electric power system. Their national adoption could provide $\$$100-200 billion in U.S. electric power system cost savings over the next two decades. The associated reduction in CO 2 emissions is estimated at 6% per year by 2030 (DOE 2021). Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and continually evolve to include advanced technologies and innovative practices. Historically, national model energy codes establish minimum efficiency requirements for new construction (ICC 2020). Expanding codes to support GEB capabilities is a pivotal step towards realizing demand flexibility in support of a clean grid by addressing capabilities to improve interoperability between smart building systems, the grid, and renewable energy resources. Realizing GEBs requires buildings with automated demand response (DR) capabilities that enable standardized communication with or control of, subject to explicit consumer consent, energy smart appliances or home energy management systems. This is achieved through direct or indirect (i.e., via an aggregator) communication between appliances and the electric grid. Energy codes can also support DR communication standardization and advance the deployment of building-integrated DERs such as energy storage, generation, and electric vehicles (EVs). Incorporating automated DR capabilities in energy codes provides many benefits to the consumers. Specifically, it aligns building electric load demand with intermittent renewable energy source availability, decreases peak load on the electric grid, allows buildings to respond to utility price signals, supports electrical network reliability and market growth of products and processes aligned with clean economic growth. The incorporation of DR into the model residential energy codes was considered for both the 2021 and 2024 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) code development cycles. The approved DR measures in the 2021 cycle were removed in response to appeals (ICC 2020). Updated language was presented for consideration again for the 2024 IECC, where it was negotiated and again approved, and again removed in response to appeals (ICC 2024). This resulted in many sections, including sections on demand responsive controls, being moved to the credits options or an appendix as a voluntary application. This technical brief updates the proposed DR components such that they can be considered by states and local governments for direct incorporation into their codes, as well as for future IECC energy code development. The proposal refinements are intended to support consistency in approach and provide a degree of certainty for building owners, designers, contractors, manufacturers, and building and fire safety professionals. The scope of this technical brief includes three strategies for DR in residential buildings: 1) smart thermostats with demand-responsive control, 2) electric water heating incorporating demand-responsive controls and communication and 3) grid Integrated solar and energy storage systems.

2021 IECC↗

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗

A practical control strategy for demand flexibility with ensured occupant comfort in grid-interactive efficient buildings

This study proposes a practical and simplified demand response (DR) control strategy from the perspective of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs), aiming to secure demand flexibility while ensuring occupant thermal comfort. Focusing on summer on-peak periods, a linear demand response (LDR) strategy that integrates cooling setpoint adjustment and lighting dimming was designed, and its performance was quantitatively evaluated. A case study was conducted using EnergyPlus-based simulations for a U.S. DOE small office prototype building under summer on-peak weather conditions. Compared with a conventional rapid demand response (RDR) strategy, the proposed LDR approach gradually reduced electrical loads while maintaining occupant thermal comfort indices, including predicted mean vote (PMV) and predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD), within acceptable comfort ranges. Quantitative analysis of demand flexibility using the grid-interactive impact index (GII) and the flexibility strength index (FSI) showed that the LDR strategy provided approximately 12.5% demand flexibility during DR periods and achieved an electricity cost reduction of about 8.8%. In addition, the results of the part-load ratio (PLR)-based cooling system performance analysis showed that, in the on-peak period, the LDR strategy exhibited improved cooling performance compared with the baseline. Overall, this study shows the potential of a practical DR control strategy that can simultaneously achieve occupant comfort and demand flexibility without relying on complex advanced control technologies.

Jung, Dong Eun↗

DFAT: A web-based toolkit for estimating demand flexibility in building-to-grid integration

Demand Flexibility Assessment Tool (DFAT) is an open source web-based tool that estimates the demand flexibility potential of common control strategies in commercial buildings. The toolkit features a demand flexibility estimation tool that contains two calculators, basic and advanced, based on the level of input of customer data. The basic version calculates demand shed metrics for the control strategy “global temperature adjustment” and “cycle on/off compressors” using customer building information, local weather data, and electrical meter data. The advanced version, which uses detailed HVAC equipment data, calculates demand flexibility metrics for control strategies such as static pressure reset, global temperature adjustment, and cycle on/off compressors. In addition to the demand flexibility estimation tool, this toolkit offers a benchmarking tool that helps facility operators, aggregators, and utility resource managers assess demand flexibility opportunities, quantify/verify performance, and compare their performance against that of their peers.

Leong, Michael↗

Leverage demand-side policies for energy security

Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). Here, we determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient. Energy demand links more directly than supply to the satisfaction of critical social functions and human well-being that are at the core of energy security. Yet, demand-side perspectives tend to be neglected or underrepresented in analysis and policy debates on energy security. Factors that contribute to this supply-side bias include the traditional sectoral organization of industries and policy institutions along fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and energy forms (electric utilities) as well as the decentralized and multivaried activities characteristic of energy demand (from vehicles to household appliances to manufacturing and more), which leads to a multitude of actors and institutional fragmentation. The basic fundamentals of energy systems and markets, where demand and supply are intricately linked, have also not yet risen from vague awareness to a central organizing principle among policy-makers for structuring the energy security discourse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume I – Value proposition characteristics, challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility value propositions, which provide information on value creation and describe how programs deliver clear benefits that address customer and grid needs. This report discusses the role of value propositions in demand flexibility programs, provides an overview of value propositions for a range of demand flexibility stakeholders, identifies existing challenges to establishing an effective value proposition, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand: Updates to Methodology and Results

This report presents revisions to the methodology for estimating the utility sector impacts associated with electricity demand reductions, first published in our 2014 study. The earlier report described how to calculate utility impact factors based on data from the Energy Information Agency's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of electricity supply and demand. The 2014 methodology relied on data from the AEO Reference case, and side cases implementing demand-side policies with a substantial impact on total demand. Beginning in 2015, the AEO publication schedule was revised to limit the number of side cases published with each AEO, and no suitable demand-focused side cases have been released since 2014. Hence, this paper presents a generalization of the methodology that allows a uniform approach irrespective of the nature of the side cases published with the AEO. The impact factors we calculate represent coeffcients of variation between a unit reduction to site electricity demand and corresponding supply-side changes, including reductions to electric power generation and primary fuel consumption by fuel type, emissions of criteria pollutants (Hg, NO x and SO 2 ) and greenhouse gases (CO 2 , N 2 O and CH 4 ), and total installed capacity by plant type. The impact factors are time-dependent, and also depend on the demand sector and end use. In this report, we apply the methodology to all AEO publications from 2014-2019, and all scenarios. We quantify the variation in factors across different side cases within each AEO, and across different AEO publications, and compare this to the variation due to changes in methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Peak Demand Savings from Efficiency: Opportunities and Practices [Slides]

Electricity systems are designed to meet peak demand - the maximum load during a specified period, typically in summer - even if that demand occurs only a few hours in a year. Yet most evaluations of electricity efficiency programs focus on reductions in annual energy use. However, these efficiency programs are also delivering peak demand savings at an affordable cost. A new study by the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) explores the program administrator (PA) cost - or the cost to implement an energy efficiency program to a utility or third party administrator - of saving peak demand through efficiency programs for electric utility customers. Berkeley Lab collected data on costs, annual energy savings, and peak demand savings for electricity efficiency programs for 52 utilities and other program administrators in 15 states between 2014 and 2018. The analysis focused on eight program types that represent 68% of the peak demand savings for the utilities and program administrators studied. The findings improve our understanding of which energy efficiency programs produce the most peak demand savings and their cost performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗