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This viewgraph presentation reviews the decision making that led to the choice of the Ares launch vehicle. There are charts that show comparisons of the features of the ESAS launch vehicles. There is discussion of the rationale of the choice of using a Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) as the launch vehicle for the future Crew Exploration Vehicle.
One of the most important developments of the twentieth century has been the movement of humanity into space with machines and people. The extension of human activity into outer space has been accompanied by a high degree of self-awareness of its historical significance. Because most of the activity in outer space was carried out under government sponsorship, it was accompanied by the documentary record required of public institutions, and there has been a spate of official and privately written histories of most major aspects of space achievement to date. When top leaders considered what course of action to pursue in space, their deliberations and decisions often were carefully put on the record. There is, accordingly, no lack of material for those who aspire to understand the origins and evolution of U.S. space policies and programs.This reality forms the rationale for this series. Precisely because there is so much historical material available on space matters, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decided in 1988 that it would be extremely useful to have easily available to scholars and the interested public a selective collection of many of the seminal documents related to the evolution of the U.S. civilian space program. While recognizing that much space activity has taken place under the sponsorship of the Department of Defense and other national security organizations, the U.S. private sector, and in other countries around the world, NASA felt that there would be lasting value in a collection of documentary material primarily focused on the evolution of the U.S. government s civilian space program, most of which has been carried out since 1958 under the Agency s auspices. As a result, the NASA History Office contracted with the Space Policy Institute of George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs to prepare such a collection. This is the sixth volume in the documentary history series; two additional ones containing documents and introductory essays related to human space flight, including microgravity research in Earth orbit, will follow. The documents collected during this research project were assembled from a diverse number of both public and private sources. A major repository of primary source materials relative to the history of the civil space program is the NASA Historical Reference Collection of the NASA History Office located at the Agency s Headquarters in Washington, DC.
The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.
The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.
This paper describes a study, which had as its principal goal the development of a sufficiently detailed 5 x 5 Risk Matrix Scorecard. The purpose of this scorecard is to outline the criteria by which technical issues can be qualitatively and initially prioritized. The tool using this score card has been proposed to be one of the information resources the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) takes into consideration when making decisions with respect to incoming information on safety concerns across the entire NASA agency. The contents of this paper discuss in detail each element of the risk matrix scorecard, definitions for those elements and the rationale behind the development of those definitions. This scorecard development was performed in parallel with the tailoring of the existing Futron Corporation Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) software tool. IRMA was tailored to fit NESC needs for evaluating incoming safety concerns and was renamed NESC Assessment Risk Management Application (NAFMA) which is still in developmental phase.
A study was conducted to determine the characteristics of solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) for the space transportation system. Emphasis is placed on the rationale leading to the concepts for the development and operations program which enhances the cost effectiveness of the SEPS operating with the space transportation system. The approach in describing design concepts and configurations is concerned with the decision controlling factors and selection criteria. The mission roles for the SEPS in accomplishing proposed space activities are defined.
Public support and interest are needed to design an ambitious human spaceflight program. However, it is difficult to understand what the public values and would support. And it is even more challenging and rare to consider public views prior to actually developing a mission. Participatory technology assessment (pTA) is a method that aims to understand public preferences and values in order to inform upstream government decision-making. We assess a recently completed experiment in pTA, the "Informing NASA's Asteroid Initiative" project. Through a cooperative agreement with NASA, the Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology (ECAST) network conducted a pTA-based forum on NASA's Asteroid Initiative and the Journey to Mars. ECAST organized two citizen forums in Phoenix, Arizona and Boston, Massachusetts in November 2014, with a total of 183 citizens selected so as to minimize self-selection biases. This paper focuses on the "Journey to Mars" session, which had the primary goal of soliciting citizen perceptions about different Mars exploration scenarios and mission planning approaches. Citizens were given background information about three potential Mars exploration scenarios that NASA could carry out: 1) Crewed orbital mission to direct robots on the surface of Mars; 2) Short exploratory crewed mission to the surface of Mars; and 3) establishing a permanent settlement. Citizens then engaged in structured facilitated discussions about their preferences among the scenarios and NASA's mission planning approach. Using a grounded theory coding approach, we analyzed participants' written rationales and dialogue about Mars exploration. In general, participants did not show a strong preference for any particular mission profile, but there was a slight preference for the crewed orbital robotics scenario. Participants who supported this approach saw it as the quickest, safest, and least costly road to a successful mission. However, many participants were interested in seeing "boots on the ground," as they believed this would propel scientific advancement, increase excitement about space exploration, and make humans a "two-planet species."
A methodology for planning the industralization of space is discussed. The suggested approach combines the extrapolative ('push') approach, in which alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies, with the normative ('pull') view, in which an ideal state in the far future is postulated and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment. Time-reversed vectors of the future are tied to extrapolated, trend-oriented vectors of the quasi-present to identify common plateaus or stepping stones in technological development. Important steps in the industrialization of space to attain the short-range goals of production of space-derived energy, goods and services and the long-range goal of space colonization are discussed.
The increasing need to develop alternative energy sources has renewed interest in the use of wind energy for the generation of utility quality electricity. This paper discusses a program to evolve a preliminary design of a cost competitive large wind generator system. An examination of a number of technically feasible alternative wind energy configurations is reported, and the rationale used in selecting the preferred system concept is presented. In addition, preliminary results of an optimization study conducted on the preferred concept are summarized. These show that considerable latitude in the selection of the system design parameters is possible. This permits design decisions to be based on other important factors such as development risk and the suitability of common component designs for systems with different power ratings.
This conference paper describes the current systems analysis approach being implemented for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project within the Integrated Systems Research Program under the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. The scope and purpose of these systems studies are introduced followed by a methodology overview. The approach involves both top-down and bottoms-up components to provide NASA s stakeholders with a rationale for the prioritization and tracking of a portfolio of technologies which enable the future fleet of aircraft to operate with a simultaneous reduction of aviation noise, emissions and fuel-burn impacts to our environment. Examples of key current results and relevant decision support conclusions are presented along with a forecast of the planned analyses to follow.
A design rationale tool (DR tool) was developed to capture design knowledge to support design verification and design knowledge re-use. The design rationale tool captures design drivers and requirements, and documents the design solution including: intent (why it is included in the overall design); features (why it is designed the way it is); information about how the design components support design drivers and requirements; and, design alternatives considered but rejected. For design verification purposes, the tool identifies how specific design requirements were met and instantiated within the final design, and which requirements have not been met. To support design re-use, the tool identifies which design decisions are affected when design drivers and requirements are modified. To validate the design tool, the design knowledge from the Taxiway Navigation and Situation Awareness (T-NASA; Foyle et al., 1996) system was captured and the DR tool was exercised to demonstrate its utility for validation and re-use.
Verification is the process through which Modeling and Simulation(M&S) software goes to ensure that it has been rigorously tested and debugged for its intended use. Validation confirms that said software accurately models and represents the real world system. Credibility gives an assessment of the development and testing effort that the software has gone through as well as how accurate and reliable test results are. Together, these three components form Verification, Validation, and Credibility(VV&C), the process by which all NASA modeling software is to be tested to ensure that it is ready for implementation. NASA created this process following the CAIB (Columbia Accident Investigation Board) report seeking to understand the reasons the Columbia space shuttle failed during reentry. The reports conclusion was that the accident was fully avoidable, however, among other issues, the necessary data to make an informed decision was not there and the result was complete loss of the shuttle and crew. In an effort to mitigate this problem, NASA put out their Standard for Models and Simulations, currently in version NASA-STD-7009A, in which they detailed their recommendations, requirements and rationale for the different components of VV&C. They did this with the intention that it would allow for people receiving MS software to clearly understand and have data from the past development effort. This in turn would allow the people who had not worked with the MS software before to move forward with greater confidence and efficiency in their work. This particular project looks to perform Verification on several MATLAB (Registered Trademark)(The MathWorks, Inc.) scripts that will be later implemented in a website interface. It seeks to take note and define the limits of operation, the units and significance, and the expected datatype and format of the inputs and outputs of each of the scripts. This is intended to prevent the code from attempting to make incorrect or impossible calculations. Additionally, this project will look at the coding generally and note inconsistencies, redundancies, and other aspects that may become problematic or slow down the codes run time. Certain scripts lacking in documentation also will be commented and cataloged.
This paper briefly reviews the land mobile market and discusses services that might be provided by hybrid terrestrial/land mobile satellite systems (T/LMSS). In view of the expected urban/suburban patterns of planned terrestrial systems it is suggested that a satellite may prove a cost-effective complement to terrestrial systems for serving thinly populated or large geographical areas. A basic Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) is described, example applications are provided, and the status and rationale for LMSS frequencies in the 806-890 MHz band is given. Next, examples are given of NASA supported land mobile satellite experiments and a preliminary T/LMSS work plan, part of an overall Narrowband Program, is presented for structuring future work. The initiation of the T/LMSS plan depends on pending management/budget decisions. The report closes with a listing of issues and potential problem areas, the solutions of which NASA believes are critical to the success of the proposed T/LMSS effort.
The Mars Pathfinder Mission is a Discovery Class mission that will place a small lander and rover on the surface of Mars in July of 1997. It is primarily a technology demonstration to test the feasibility of a direct entry-delivery system, but carries a nominal scientific payload that includes rover-lander and instrumentation for limited mineralogical analysis. The nominal landing site was selected by the Pathfinder Team under the leadership of Dr. Matthew Golombek (JPL) based input from 60 participants at a Landing Site Workshop held last Spring at the Lunar Planetary Institute in Houston. The mission constraints for the landing site were 0-30 deg. N latitude, and below the 0.0 elevation datum. Over 20 landing sites were proposed and a nominal site was selected on southern Chryse Planitia near the terminae of the Ares and Tui outflow channels. In part, the decision to land at this location was based on the opportunity to sample a potentially large number lithologies in a small area (the rover will have a range of a few tens of meters from the lander). The purpose here is to review the general geological context of the landing site and the rationale for Exobiology's recommendation of the Ares site given at the workshop last spring. Because Ares and Tui Valles are sourced within terranes that may have originated by thermokarst processes, hydrothermal processes could have operated there for some time. Hydrothermal systems are presently regarded as important sites for a fossil record on Mars. Models for the formation of the outflow channels suggest that thermal spring sinters and associated aqueous mineral deposits, high priority targets for Mars Exopaleontology, could have formed in association with thermokarst processes and subsequently been delivered to the landing site in large quantities during the periodic cataclysmic outflows that created the channels.
Final Paper, not the Abstract, is attached: This report discusses how history can be used by management, engineering, and operations personnel within space flight programs. Works by professional historians and sociologists inform key decision makers and policy specialists on lessons learned from space flight program management successes and failures, as well as from legislative affairs, policy making, and commercial space efforts. Vehicle engineering history written by engineers for an engineering or operations audience informs project management and technical personnel on lessons learned, best practices, and the rationale behind the design and operation of flight vehicles and supporting ground systems. Archives play a critical role in supporting the efforts of both professional historians and flight program personnel. Suggestions are made concerning how professional historians could leverage the interests and knowledge of flight program personnel to obtain more insight that is needed to support historical research efforts.
The goal of the propulsion community is to have the enabling propulsion technologies in place to permit a low risk decision regarding the initiation of a research STOVL supersonic attack fighter aircraft in the mid-1990's. This technology will effectively integrate, enhance, and extend the supersonic cruise, STOVL, and fighter/attack programs to enable U.S. industry to develop a revolutionary supersonic short takeoff vertical landing fighter/attack aircraft in the post-ATF period. The rationale, methods, and criteria used in developing a joint NASA Lewis and NASA Ames research program to develop the technology element for integrated flight propulsion control through integrated methodologies is presented. This program, the Supersonic STOVL Integrated Flight Propulsion Controls Program, is part of the overall NASA Lewis Supersonic STOVL integrated approach to an integrated program to achieve integrated flight propulsion control technology.
The goal of the propulsion community is to have the enabling propulsion technologies in place to permit a low risk decision regarding the initiation of a research STOVL supersonic attack fighter aircraft in the mid-1990's. This technology will effectively integrate, enhance, and extend the supersonic cruise, STOVL, and fighter/attack programs to enable U.S. industry to develop a revolutionary supersonic short takeoff vertical landing fighter/attack aircraft in the post-ATF period. The rationale, methods, and criteria used in developing a joint NASA Lewis and NASA Ames research program to develop the technology element for integrated flight propulsion control through integrated methodologies is presented. This program, the Supersonic STOVL integrated Flight Propulsion Controls Program, is part of the overall NASA Lewis Supersonic STOVL integrated approach to an integrated program to achieve integrated flight propulsion control technology.
The primary objective of the STS-99 mission was to complete high resolution mapping of large sections of the Earth's surface using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a specially modified radar system. This radar system produced unrivaled 3-D images of the Earth's Surface. The mission was launched at 12:31 on February 11, 2000 onboard the space shuttle Endeavour, and led by Commander Kevin Kregel. The crew was Pilot Dominic L. Pudwill Gorie and Mission Specialists Janet L. Kavandi, Janice E. Voss, Mamoru Mohri from the National Space Development Agency (Japanese Space Agency), and Gerhard P. J. Thiele from DARA (German Space Agency). This tape shows the activities of the ninth day of the mission. The announcement of the decision to extend the SRTM for 9 hours is made to the crew. This means that almost all (i.e., 99.9 %) of the target area of the Earth will be imaged, at least once. Some shots of the 200 foot long mast where the outboard antennas are located are shown. Mamoru Mohri is shown changing a data tape, while he explains the rationale for recording rather than transmitting the data. Gerhard Thiele speaks to the German press. At the end of this tape are images generated from the SRTM. There are views of Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and west Maui, Hawaii; Dallas, Texas; Salalah, Oman; and Tasmania, Australia. Animations showing the topography around Hokkaido, Japan and Brazil are also shown.