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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry Tool (MapIT)

To date, 48 projects, consisting of 139 wells, are currently under review with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for Class VI – wells used for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. The number of applications submitted is expected to increase in coming years with the increase of the 45Q tax credit available to projects that initiate construction prior to 2033. The amount of data collected to submit a Class VI permit is vast, and often disparate, coming from state, federal, and commercial entities, as well as field-specific data collected within an area of interest. When preparing for site selection and permitting, the initial aggregation of relevant public data can be time intensive. The Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry tool (MapIT) was created to support and accelerate the discovery and accessibility of open-source data and information available across the USA. Data was aggregated and organized based on data types described within the EPA UIC Class VI permit documentation. The online tool enables users to explore hundreds of geospatial data layers and connect to additional external resources, leveraging API and REST services where possible to ensure updates to data in real time. MapIT enables users to explore state and federal data related to geologic, geophysical, structural, hydrologic, and contextual information. In addition to displaying spatial data and linking to external resources, MapIT leverages custom widgets to ensure that internal data and external data are discoverable and accessible. The widgets connect users to resources such as the USGS publications and the USGS Earthquake Catalog based on a user-defined location. This talk will describe data aggregation workflows, data types, data preparation, and tool development for MapIT. The Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry Tool and underlying database are valuable, intuitive resources that empower government, academic, commercial and industry stakeholders to explore, analyze, and acquire carbon storage related data.

Morkner, Paige↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bike and Scoot to Transit

In this project, we developed a micromobility first-mile service for customers to access public transit. We launched this service as a pilot in the Seattle area that incentivized transit customers to bike or scoot to transit. The objective was to learn how to integrate different micromobility services and provide a unified reward program. Our pilot was called “Bike and Scoot to Transit” and ran from November 2022 to September 2023. More than a dozen locations were selected near transit hubs and light rail/train stations as preferred parking locations. Trips ending at those locations were partially funded. The pilot supported 19,226 qualified trips and distributed $73,000 in total benefits for the participants of the pilot. This dataset was collected from our pilot, which includes the following: - Monthly data: Monthly trip and funding summaries. - Data summary: Data broken down based on the micromobility service provider and equipment. - Trip data: List of all trips recorded during the pilot. - Pricing models: Fees charged by micromobility service providers. ![bike to transit](bike-transit.png)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Nuclear-Integrated Data Centers in the USA: SWOT Analysis, Power-Thermal Management Strategies, and Industrial-Scale Demonstration and Potential Deployment

Driven by the growth in digital services, cloud computing, AI, and manufacturing, data centers face rising energy demands that challenge traditional power sources and cooling efficiency. This study explores using nuclear power to meet these demands, focusing on accelerated reactor technology deployment and highlighting needs such as N+1/N+2 power supplies and integrated power-thermal management. A SWOT analysis addresses grid connectivity, reactors, and site selection, particularly DOE sites. Reactor technology demonstration and deployment could be accelerated by leveraging test facilities such as MARVEL, MAGNET, TED, FAS, DOME, LOTUS, ATR, Energy System Proving Grounds, and upcoming Energy Launch Pads, along with modeling and simulation tools such as RELAP5, MOOSE, VERA, RAVEN, and FORCE. The potential power and thermal management options, including various cooling technologies, waste-heat utilization, and an industrial-scale demonstration plan, aim to accelerate the integration of nuclear power and data centers in the USA, while emphasizing community and stakeholder engagement and synergistic efforts.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Climatology and Life‐Cycle Characteristics of Atmospheric Fronts and Their Associated Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric fronts are one of the main sources of mid‐latitude variability. We employ a novel method for identifying and tracking fronts and frontal precipitation. Thermal and dynamical variables are used to identify fronts as areal objects in space, which are tracked in time using the open‐source TempestExtremes software package. Precipitation objects are co‐located to identify frontal precipitation. The method is subjected to validation and sensitivity tests using manually curated data from the National Weather Service. Climatologies of fronts and frontal precipitation are computed from reanalysis and observations; fronts are present upwards of 14% of the time in the storm tracks, and represent the majority (up to 90%) of total and extreme precipitation. Novel aspects of the method are showcased through the lifetime characteristics of fronts across North America. Three sets of warm and cold fronts were discovered, and their duration, distance‐traveled, and translation velocity are examined. Plain Language Summary Mid‐latitude low‐pressure systems and weather fronts are important for our day‐to‐day experience of weather events, particularly in the mid‐latitudes. This work makes use of standardized atmospheric data and creates a method of automatically tracking these important atmospheric features and their precipitation to quantify their relative role in global precipitation. Weather fronts are persistent in the mid‐latitudes and are associated with the majority of precipitation–particularly the most intense precipitation. Trajectories of fronts over North America are categorized to create a set of archetypal fronts that occur in that region. The differences between these types of fronts are characterized. Key Points An automated, efficient, and skillful frontal detection algorithm is developed and validated Fronts contribute a larger fraction of extreme precipitation than all precipitation in mid‐latitude storm tracks Fronts across North America have substantial variation in characteristics depending on their origin location

extratropical cyclone↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake-Effect Snowstorm Events and Associated Snowfall Totals Integrated from NOAA Storm Reports, ERA5, and HRRR for the Laurentian Great Lakes (1997–2024)

Lake-effect snowstorms are localized, impactful winter weather phenomena that can generate substantial snowfall totals and pose significant challenges for forecasting, transportation, and regional infrastructure. To support the analysis and modeling of these events, this dataset compiles observational reports of lake-effect snowstorms alongside corresponding snowfall estimates derived from gridded atmospheric datasets. The observational component of the data originates from the National Weather Service (NWS) winter storm report, subset to lake-effect snow event type, covering 1997–2024. For each lake-effect snow event, this data provides the impacted county, event start and end datetimes at an hourly resolution, as well as relevant storm narratives. The complementary reanalysis-derived data is sourced from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) gridded data. For both gridded datasets, the maximum total snowfall (in units mm) was extracted, constrained by the county and datetimes specified by the observational report. ERA5 data covers the entire observational period (1997–2024), whereas HRRR data is only available from November 2016 – December 2024. Three CSV files are provided here: (1) the observational lake-effect snow event report, (2) ERA5 maximum snowfall detections for each event, and (3) HRRR maximum snowfall detections for each event. Relevant data from the observational files, such as impacted state and county, event datetimes, and event IDs, were included for convenience. Users can inspect and visualize the data using tools such as Microsoft Excel and Python pandas/matplotlib packages. This dataset may support a variety of applications, including climatological analyses of lake-effect snowfall, evaluation of snowfall representation in atmospheric datasets and numerical weather prediction models, and the development of machine learning approaches for detecting or predicting lake-effect snowfall events.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > SOLID↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diaspora: Resilience-enabling services for science from HPC to edge

Scientific applications of interest to DOE must increasingly engage distributed resources (e.g., instruments, remote computers, data stores, edge devices) and deliver more stringent levels of service (e.g., uninterrupted processing of experiment data streams). In such systems, state is distributed and components can fail in many ways, often silently, making application resilience a major concern. Addressing the resilience needs of such applications requires methods for gaining knowledge of resources and applications and for translating that knowledge into action. We are working on addressing these needs in the context of multi-messenger astronomy, where detecting and responding to unusual transient events in multiple cosmic messengers (gravitational wave, electromagnetic, high- energy particles) from different instruments leads to a federated learning problem.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Employment access assessed using the mobility energy productivity (MEP) metric

Transit agencies, local governments, employers, and job-seekers have a shared interest in connecting residents with jobs in an affordable and time efficient manner, with public agencies also caring about energy efficiency and air quality. Employment hubs are an opportunity to solve the spatial mismatch between homes of job-seekers and the locations of desirable jobs. Such is the case in Columbus, Ohio, between Rickenbacker Industrial Park and the Linden neighborhood, which has experienced persistent poverty. Using the mobility energy productivity (MEP) metric to examine travel time, cost, and energy efficiency, we show current transit service is undesirable due to excessive travel time (70 min, MEP = 0), while driving alone (MEP = 0.20) may be less desirable than a hypothetical, fare-free microtransit service (MEP = 0.23). Updating MEP to use locally-derived input data can help identify parameters under which providing microtransit service in a specific place has compelling benefits in terms of vehicle energy efficiency as well as cost and travel time for riders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Edge to HPC: Investigating Cross-Facility Data Streaming Architectures

In this paper, we investigate three cross-facility data streaming architectures, Direct Streaming (DTS), Proxied Streaming (PRS), and Managed Service Streaming (MSS). We examine their architectural variations in data flow paths and deployment feasibility, and detail their implementation using the Data Streaming to HPC (DS2HPC) architectural framework and the SciStream memory-to-memory streaming toolkit on the production-grade Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) infrastructure at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). We present a workflow-specific evaluation of these architectures using three synthetic workloads derived from the streaming characteristics of scientific workflows. Through simulated experiments, we measure streaming throughput, round-trip time, and overhead under work sharing, work sharing with feedback, and broadcast and gather messaging patterns commonly found in AI-HPC communication motifs. Our study shows that DTS offers a minimal-hop path, resulting in higher throughput and lower latency, whereas MSS provides greater deployment feasibility and scalability across multiple users but incurs significant overhead. PRS lies in between, offering a scalable architecture whose performance matches DTS in most cases.

George, Anjus [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000179737061)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data Processing Pipeline To Extract A Knowledge Graph From Heterogeneous Data For Socio-technical Analysis Of Critical Infrastructure Influence

The code is written in Python and consists of the following pipeline that is implemented in Apache Airflow. This pipeline intends to understand the companies that are directly or indirectly involved with a type of critical infrastructure system at some point in that system's lifecycle. The pipeline takes a configuration file that specifies a list of initial companies to consider, a geographic region of interest, and a set of SEC form types as well as other data sources (e.g. CrunchBase) from which to extract entities and relations. There are four main components to this pipeline as currently implemented: Entity Extraction, Network Construction, Analysis, and Visualization. First, Entity Extraction, is implemented as the `topear-extract_organizations` Apache Airflow workflow. Given an initial query that specifies a geographic region of interest and a time interval, the software will extract CI facilities of interest and organizations that have a direct influence relationship to those facilities (e.g. ownership). During the course of the LDRD, we focused on Electric Vehicle charging stations and this information is available via the Department of Energy (DOE) database on fueling stations maintained by NREL. Within the context of the DOE CESER project, we have focused on Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). Second, the Network Extraction component will iteratively construct a social network graph given the set of organizations and people extracted in the previous step. Organizations (and eventually People if desired) are then fed as a query to the `topgear-construct_social_network` Apache Airflow workflow which given a set of initial companies and data sets (e.g. SEC EDGAR form types, OpenCorporates, Crunchbase). This Airflow workflow will iteratively query such data sources to discover relationships with new organizations and people. For example, this module can iteratively query SEC EDGAR for metadata that documents the number of each type of form for the given set of companies and their location. This forms metadata represents a catalog of data sources from SEC EDGAR for the extracted social network knowledge graph. The pipeline then downloads these forms from the website and saves them in a build directory for further processing. These documents are then parsed for entities and relations. Again, we note that in additional to SEC data sources, this step can also pull in information on organizations via API services such as CrunchBase and OpenCorporates or bulk data sources. At the end of this step, the resultant social network, the Critical Infrastructure network, and the edges that encode relationships between organizations and CI facilities, form the Adversarial Socio-Technical Network (ASTN) that informs the analysis. Third, the Analysis component processes these generated ASTN. Previously, that has included the ability to compare prevalence of different vendors for a given infrastructure component type across different regions as well as identify common public and private investors across those vendors. This was demonstrated for EV Charging Stations across several different metropolitan areas within an IEEE PES GridEdge publication. More recently, we have looked at ways to identify infrastructure owners and operators of BESS with the most nameplate capacity across different states as well as other indictors of risk resulting from changes in ownership over time. Finally, the Visualization component consists of an HTML/CSS/JS framework by which users can interact geospatial, operational, and organizational relationships across a given portfolio of Critical Infrastructure facilities. The objective is to provide a library of UI/UX modules that can be repurposed for stakeholder-specific dashboards. All of the modules are related via a common event model that enables UI actions in one view to percolate across the other views.

Weaver, Gabriel [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
DOE OSTI2025

FL‐ADS: Federated learning anomaly detection system for distributed energy resource networks

Abstract With the ongoing development of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) communication networks, the imperative for strong cybersecurity and data privacy safeguards is increasingly evident. DER networks, which rely on protocols such as Distributed Network Protocol 3 and Modbus, are susceptible to cyberattacks such as data integrity breaches and denial of service due to their inherent security vulnerabilities. This paper introduces an innovative Federated Learning (FL)‐based anomaly detection system designed to enhance the security of DER networks while preserving data privacy. Our models leverage Vertical and Horizontal Federated Learning to enable collaborative learning while preserving data privacy, exchanging only non‐sensitive information, such as model parameters, and maintaining the privacy of DER clients' raw data. The effectiveness of the models is demonstrated through its evaluation on datasets representative of real‐world DER scenarios, showcasing significant improvements in accuracy and F1‐score across all clients compared to the traditional baseline model. Additionally, this work demonstrates a consistent reduction in loss function over multiple FL rounds, further validating its efficacy and offering a robust solution that balances effective anomaly detection with stringent data privacy needs.

Purohit, Shaurya [Iowa State University Ames Iowa ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enterprise Artificial Intelligence Strategy for Los Alamos National Laboratory

In the 1984 martial arts drama film, The Karate Kid, a young Daniel LaRusso is unexpectedly placed in an adversarial environment unable to eYectively adapt to a series of new threats and limitations. Fortunately for the main character, once placed under the tutelage of a Mr. Miyagi, he finds resiliency not through the adoption of new tools, but a re-focused set of fundamentals. Much in the same way that Daniel learns waxing on and buYing oY car wax by hand has rewards for Karate, LANL is choosing the harder path of self-hosting Large Language Models (LLMs) for enterprise use instead of only relying on buying access to a hosted AI service like Azure’s OpenAI Application Programming Interface (API). We also are not willing to wait for software-as-a-service (SAAS) AI services to meet us where we need to be from a FedRAMP accreditation standpoint. Our operations regularly depend on access at CUI, UCNI, ITAR and other FIPS-199 moderate-impact data levels and hosting our own services gives us the right security and compliance posture to be useful across the broad range of our work at LANL. With the rise in threats to critical infrastructure, cloud service providers (CSPs), and supply chain attacks from both state and non-state actors, we are not placing the bet that SAAS hosted AI services will be available when we need them. Should a major event occur, we do not want our staY and operations left without a pathway for us to fix the problem and resume the use of AI tools.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the diffusion of Kr in UO 2 and ADOPT TM using time-of-flight elastic recoil detection analysis (ToF-erda)

A combination of 300 keV 84 Kr ion implantation and Time-of-Flight Elastic Recoil Detection Analysis is utilized to investigate the diffusion of Kr in UO 2 and ADOPT TM fuels. Composition depth-profiles on the nanometer scale were obtained, both for as-implanted samples and after annealing at 800°C for 1 hour. Observed drifts in the 84 Kr profiles could be associated with short-range diffusion mechanisms. The approach employed here provides the possibility to make direct comparisons with atomistic scale modelling data, and can be of service as a separate effect test in line with the Accelerated Fuel Qualification initiative.

ADOPT UO2↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Challenges in Low-Inertia Power-Electronics-Dominated Grids

Here, the low inertia characteristics of the power electronics dominated grid (PEDG) introduces challenges while restoring voltage and frequency to their nominal values. These stability challenges create new cybersecurity vulnerabilities that are not thoroughly discussed in the literature. Cyber events such as false data injection (FDI), denial of service (DoS), man-in-the-middle attacks, stealthy attacks, and advanced persistent threats target PEDG to disrupt grid stability or gain financial benefits. The low inertia of PEDG (< 2s) compared to traditional grids (~10s) exacerbates these vulnerabilities. In response to stealthy attacks on state variables that supervisory layers cannot detect until significant harm occurs, the low inertia characteristics of PEDG offer substantial stealthy attack surfaces. To counteract such threats, PEDG must be equipped with ultra-fast real-time anomaly detection system and trajectory prediction mechanism to achieve effective cyberattack resiliency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗