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At least 73 records · Page 4

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DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of theory-based models for the control of plasma currents in W7-X divertor plasmas

A theory-based model for the control of plasma currents for steady-state operation in W7-X is proposed and intended for model-based plasma control. The conceptual outline implies the strength of physics-based models: it offer approaches applicable to future conditions of fusion devices or next-step machines. The application at extrapolated settings is related to the validity range of the theory model. Therefore, the predictive power of theory-based control models could be larger than for data-driven approaches and limitations can be predicted from the validity range for the prediction of bootstrap currents in W7-X. The model predicts the L/R response when density or heating power is changed. The model is based on neoclassical bootstrap current calculations and validated for different discharge conditions. While the model was found to be broadly applicable for conducted electron-cyclotron-heated discharges in W7-X, limits were found for cases when the polarization of the electron cyclotron heating was changed from X2 to O2-heating. The validity assessment attempts to quantify the potential of the derived model for model-based control in the operational space (density, heating power) of W7-X.

neoclassical modelling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing aircraft flows at airports using data driven predicted capabilities

A method for safe and efficient use of airport runway capacity includes receiving, at an air traffic control system at an airport, airport data related to movement areas of the airport, time data related to a time period, aircraft data related to a plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period, and environmental data related to environmental conditions predicted for the airport during the time period. The method further includes computing a probability distribution for inter-aircraft spacing by applying the airport data, the time data, the aircraft data, and the environmental data to a trained Bayesian network, producing the probability distribution for the inter-aircraft spacing as an output observation of the trained Bayesian network, and, using the probability distribution and a confidence value, identifying an inter-aircraft spacing value for the plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period.

Sweet, Douglas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Anomaly Detection for MPC Forecasts of HVAC Systems in Residential Communities

The use of residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) to shift peak demand or provide ancillary services is a potential solution in the presence of older grids and distributed renewables. However, to ensure the efficient use of devices, utilities need to accurately forecast the load and adopt error correction schemes when necessary. While significant theoretical research exists in the area of predictive control of HVAC, little experimental evidence exists. The lack of experimental data in turn causes researchers to be unprepared for unsystematic errors which emerge due to the higher complexity of the data generating process. This study offers an anomaly detection methodology that uses unsupervised machine learning algorithms to detect and isolate these errors with different forecast error ranges. The results of anomaly detection procedure can then be used for error correction and would eventually help develop better predictive controllers. The methodology is tested using real world data from a smart neighborhood that currently operates in Atlanta. GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenging problems of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of meteorological time series data

Abstract Representativeness and quality of collected meteorological data impact accuracy and precision of climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical analyses and predictions. We developed a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework, consisting of three major phases: Phase I—Preliminary data exploration, i.e., processing of raw datasets, with the challenging problems of time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase II—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme data; and Phase III—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The paper includes two use cases based on the time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado), and the Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) meteorological station. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Anomaly Detection in SCADA-Assisted OT Networks Using Ensemble-Based State Prediction Model

The cybersecurity threats of power system gradually grow due to the increased sophisticated interactions between Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) networks. False data injection attack (FDIA) that aims to compromise the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurement and disturb the system operation is one of such cyber threats. Such attacks can potentially lead to significant operational issues at the control centers and substations, and hence, result in severe physical consequences. To avoid catastrophic failure across the power grid resulting from these attacks, it is essential to arm the OT network with real-time vulnerability assessment tools. To this end, this paper outlines various drawbacks of the Purdue architecture model to defend against cyberattacks in the OT network. Furthermore, a novel ensemble-based state prediction model is proposed to detect cybersecurity anomalies in SCADA assisted OT networks. The proposed model uses control center level generation and load forecasts, scheduled, and forced outages, power flow solutions, and the substation level historical data. The hypothesis of the proposed scheme relies on the fact that additional control center and substation data can hardly be accessed and compromised by attackers. One of the vital features of the proposed scheme is an hour-ahead prediction of the operational feasibility of the SCADA measurement range at the control center and substation in real time helps in detecting anomalies in measurements across both substation and the control center.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Building 59 (Raw)

The building management system in Building 59 is monitoring and archiving building-level electricity usage, HVAC and lighting system states (e.g., setpoint, temperature, flow rate, pressure), indoor environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, CO2), on-site weather (air temperature, relative humidity), and especially occupant counts as well as other metrics such as Wi-Fi signal. This dataset could support multiple use cases, such as model predictive control and occupant related demand management. Raw data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future

A digital twin enhances power grid control room operations by providing real-time monitoring, predictive insights, simulation capabilities, remote control, training opportunities, data integration, and decision support. This technology empowers control room operators to effectively manage the grid, optimize performance, and ensure reliable and efficient energy distribution.

control room of the future↗

DOE OSTI2022

Control flow guided lock address prefetch and filtering

A method of prefetching target data includes, in response to detecting a lock-prefixed instruction for execution in a processor, determining a predicted target memory location for the lock-prefixed instruction based on control flow information associating the lock-prefixed instruction with the predicted target memory location. Target data is prefetched from the predicted target memory location to a cache coupled with the processor, and after completion of the prefetching, the lock-prefixed instruction is executed in the processor using the prefetched target data.

Mashimo, Susumu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Outliers in LiDAR Data Acquired by Multiple Platforms over Sorghum and Maize

High-resolution point cloud data acquired with a laser scanner from any platform contain random noise and outliers. Therefore, outlier detection in LiDAR data is often necessary prior to analysis. Applications in agriculture are particularly challenging, as there is typically no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of points, plant complexity, and local point densities, which are crop-dependent. The goals of this study were first to investigate approaches to minimize the impact of outliers on LiDAR acquired over agricultural row crops, and specifically for sorghum and maize breeding experiments, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a wheel-based ground platform; second, to evaluate the impact of existing outliers in the datasets on leaf area index (LAI) prediction using LiDAR data. Two methods were investigated to detect and remove the outliers from the plant datasets. The first was based on surface fitting to noisy point cloud data via normal and curvature estimation in a local neighborhood. The second utilized the PointCleanNet deep learning framework. Both methods were applied to individual plants and field-based datasets. To evaluate the method, an F-score was calculated for synthetic data in the controlled conditions, and LAI, the variable being predicted, was computed both before and after outlier removal for both scenarios. Results indicate that the deep learning method for outlier detection is more robust than the geometric approach to changes in point densities, level of noise, and shapes. The prediction of LAI was also improved for the wheel-based vehicle data based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the residuals before and after the removal of outliers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Two decades of fumigation data from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility

Abstract The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) facility is the longest running open-air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment facility in the world. For over two decades, soybean, maize, and other crops have been exposed to the elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations anticipated for late this century. The facility, located in East Central Illinois, USA, exposes crops to different atmospheric concentrations in replicated octagonal ~280 m 2 Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) treatment plots. Each FACE plot is paired with an untreated control (ambient) plot. The experiment provides important ground truth data for predicting future crop productivity. Fumigation data from SoyFACE were collected every four seconds throughout each growing season for over two decades. Here, we organize, quality control, and collate 20 years of data to facilitate trend analysis and crop modeling efforts. This paper provides the rationale for and a description of the SoyFACE experiments, along with a summary of the fumigation data and collation process, weather and ambient data collection procedures, and explanations of air pollution metrics and calculations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗