Optimal Encoding in Data-Driven Multi-Fidelity Predictors
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Villatoro, Cristian Josue↗
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Results for “data driven optimization”
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Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)
Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Convergence Analysis for an Online Data-Driven Feedback Control Algorithm
This paper presents convergence analysis of a novel data-driven feedback control algorithm designed for generating online controls based on partial noisy observational data. The algorithm comprises a particle filter-enabled state estimation component, estimating the controlled system’s state via indirect observations, alongside an efficient stochastic maximum principle-type optimal control solver. By integrating weak convergence techniques for the particle filter with convergence analysis for the stochastic maximum principle control solver, we derive a weak convergence result for the optimization procedure in search of optimal data-driven feedback control. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical findings.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Factorization Machine‐Based Active Learning for Functional Materials Design with Optimal Initial Data
The optimization of functional materials is important to enhance their properties, but their complex geometries pose great challenges to optimization. Data-driven algorithms efficiently navigate such complex design spaces by learning relationships between material structures and performance metrics to discover high-performance functional materials. Surrogate-based active learning, continually improving its surrogate model by iteratively including high-quality data points, has emerged as a cost-effective data-driven approach. Furthermore, it can be coupled with quantum computing to enhance optimization processes, especially when paired with a special form of surrogate model (i.e., quadratic unconstrained binary optimization), formulated by factorization machine (FM). However, current practices often overlook the variability in design space sizes when determining the initial data size for optimization. In this work, we investigate the optimal initial data sizes required for efficient convergence across various design space sizes. By employing averaged piecewise linear regression, we identify initiation points where convergence begins, highlighting the crucial role of employing adequate initial data in achieving efficient optimization. These results contribute to the efficient optimization of functional materials by ensuring faster convergence and reducing computational costs in FM-based active learning.
active learning↗
Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems
Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Optimization-based approaches to control of connected and automated vehicles: Principles, complexities, applications, challenges, and outlook
Safe and optimal motion control for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) poses a fundamental optimization challenge at the intersection of system complexity, environmental uncertainty, and stringent real-time constraints. Existing surveys address this challenge in isolation – focusing either on specific control techniques or individual uncertainty sources – without providing a unified framework that characterizes the trade-offs among computational tractability, performance verifiability, and adaptive generalization across paradigms. This review addresses that gap by presenting a cohesive analytical framework concentrated on the decision-making and trajectory optimization layers of the CAV autonomy stack. We systematically analyze three major optimization paradigms – first-principles model-based optimization, data-driven methods, and hybrid synergistic architectures – evaluating each against four core complexity axes: problem formulation, constraint handling, optimality guarantees, and robustness. Key applications including platooning, trajectory planning, collision avoidance, and cooperative control are examined to reveal recurring methodological patterns and critical operational constraints that limit real-world performance. Our synthesis identifies verifiable hybrid architectures, incentive-aligned multi-agent cooperation, and hardware-algorithm co-design as the defining research frontiers, and distills a targeted agenda for developing CAV control systems that are simultaneously safe, computationally efficient, and deployable in the full complexity of real-world traffic environments.
Muzahid, Abu Jafar Md [University of Tennessee, Kn↗
Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode
Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Robust Optimization for the Day-Ahead Scheduling of Cascaded Hydroelectric Systems
Uncertain electricity prices resulting from the re-structuring of electricity market have brought new opportu-nities and challenges for hydroelectric producers. This paper presents a data-driven robust optimization approach for the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems (CHS) with electricity price uncertainty. In this paper, a minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) is adopted to construct an ellipsoidal uncertainty set that fully identifies and exploits the historical characteristics data. Here, a second-order conic optimization formulation of the robust counterpart is derived for efficient computation. A real-world case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed optimization approach compared with the traditional robust optimization approach.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Creating an Advanced Sensor Network to calculate real-time, mass-weighted flue gas composition and air heater leakage of a coal-fired utility boiler under dynamic operating conditions
Utilization of renewable energy sources to minimize the environmental impact of energy production has changed the way utility boilers operate, requiring frequent load cycling between full load and partial loads as low as 30%. Dynamic operation of coal-fired utility boilers significantly reduces boiler efficiency when compared to steady state at full load. Data-driven plant optimization has shown success with coal-fired utility boilers under dynamic operating conditions. The purpose of this work was to create an Advanced Sensor Network (ASN) to provide more extensive real-time data to inform dynamic plant optimization of Net Unit Heat Rate (NUHR). The ASN consists of gas sampling grids in the convective pass of the boiler and downstream of the air heater. These sampling grids allow for quantification of spatial variation of flue gas within the boiler and calculation of mass-weighted composition of flue gas through the combination of composition, velocity, and temperature measurements. The comparison of O 2 between the inlet and outlet of the air heater is used to calculate air leakage in real time. Flue gas composition and air heater leakage are both important factors in boiler efficiency and NUHR. Further, the results of this work support the value of mass-weighted averages for determining flue gas composition accurately. The measurements from the ASN show increased composition stratification during dynamic operation, with an average standard deviation 38% higher than observed during steady-state operation. Air heater leakage was also observed to increase from 2.8% to 5.1% following a load change. Prior to the installation of the ASN, these data would not have been available for dynamic control. These real-time data will be leveraged to calculate and optimize for NUHR during dynamic operation in future work.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Platform for Remote Deployment and Training for Enhanced Building Operation Practices (Building Re-Tuning and On-going Commissioning)
While a building’s energy usage is driven largely by its design and use, building operator behavior has a strong influence on its energy consumption. This project developed and piloted a specific, data-driven coaching methodology to help operators understand how they can adjust operations and/or affect no/low-cost repairs or upgrades to their specific building HVAC systems to reduce energy consumption. Named BuildingCoach, the operational optimization method used is based on the Building Re-tuning approach developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. A building operations analytics market has matured over the past decade, though its potential to affect energy-saving changes has not been fully realized. Training operators to understand the methods for operational optimization with the explicit approach of using building-system performance data is hypothesized to create a more effective, longer lasting result in building energy efficiency, and this strategy is the fundamental premise of this project. With the support of an Industry Advisory Board, the project succeeded in developing materials and recruiting for and delivering three pilot cohorts. Deliverables included twenty-two self-paced training modules (accessed via a Learning Management System) and a web-based platform that includes access to real-time building system data and a repository for building system documentation. The project set out to have 100 participants from 50 buildings in three pilot cohorts. In the end, there were 28 participants from 17 buildings, i.e., a significant shortfall. The first two pilot cohorts had only two buildings in each, and this was partially due to difficulties in deploying the Building Operator Coaching Solution (“the BOCS”), which is technology that extracts the data from the controls network and presents it as prescribed for coaching. In the third cohort, the project team deployed the BOCS successfully to 13 buildings, the methodology was piloted as intended, and numerous opportunities for optimization were identified. The BuildingCoach business plan charts a path to an economically sustainable effort. However, even with a licensing model captured in the final version of the business plan, the scalability is still limited to keeping less than 1,000 buildings affected by 2033. Even so, there are unexplored paths to greater scalability that are being considered. CUNY BPL is working to perpetuate and grow the use of BuildingCoach. As of this writing, about twenty buildings have either been connected or will be connected with operators coached / to be coached in the NYC municipal portfolio, twelve buildings across four campuses in NY State will use BuildingCoach, a NY upstate county wishes for six or seven buildings to participate with the support of funding from NYSERDA, and others have also expressed interest. In the decades to come, there will be an increasing percentage of large and mid-sized buildings that incorporate automated system optimization (ASO), and the building operators’ role will shift to spend more time on maintenance and monitoring. Meanwhile, programs such as BuildingCoach will play a critical role in optimizing operations. And, regardless of the emergence of ASO, operators will still need to understand how their systems operate so that they can monitor them properly. Within that context, BuildingCoach is an important step towards operators’ understanding of efficient building system operations.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
A data-driven linear formulation of the optimal demand response scheduling problem for an industrial air separation unit
Demand response (DR) has become a key element in balancing the power grid as the contribution of time-varying renewable power generation increases. Chemical plants are appealing candidates for DR programs as they offer large, concentrated and flexible loads. DR participation calls for frequent production rate changes over time scales that overlap with the dominant dynamics of the plant. Production scheduling should therefore consider the process dynamics explicitly. Here we present a data-driven approach for modelling the scheduling-relevant dynamics based on historical closed-loop operating data using autoregressive with extra inputs (ARX) models. We introduce a new, linear scheduling problem formulation based on the ARX representation, and demonstrate its implementation on an industrial air separation unit.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories
Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.
Bayesian optimization↗
Online Data-Enabled Predictive Control
We develop an online data-enabled predictive (ODeePC) control method for trajectory tracking of unknown systems, building upon the recently proposed DeePC. Our proposed ODeePC method leverages a primal-dual algorithm with real-time measurement feedback to iteratively compute the corresponding real-time optimal control policy as system conditions change. Specifically, our developed ODeePC: a) records data from the unknown system and updates the underlying primal-dual algorithm dynamically, b) can track changes in the system's operating point and adjust the control inputs, and c) is computationally efficient as it deploys a Fast Fourier Transform-based algorithm enabling the fast computation of the product of a non-square Hankel matrix with a vector. We provide theoretical guarantees regarding the asymptotic behavior of ODeePC and demonstrate its performance through a power system application.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
Locally adaptive artificial viscosity strategies for Lagrangian hydrodynamics
To accurately model inviscid flow with shock waves using staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics, artificial viscosity is introduced to convert kinetic energy into internal energy, thereby providing a mechanism to generate the required entropy increase across shocks. In this paper, we propose a new method for constructing an adaptive, artificial viscosity in the context of one-dimensional, staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics. Our adaptive, artificial viscosity is defined in terms of two parameters that depend on density locally in a neighborhood around a shock, and hence, vary cell-by-cell. Our methodology is based on building a reference set of pre-computed optimal, globally constant artificial viscosity coefficients for a family of isolated shock test problems. For arbitrary flows, the evaluation of the unknown coefficients is automated by first estimating shock intensity locally, and second computing the corresponding adaptive parameter value via interpolation over the data from the pre-computed reference set of optimal, globally constant coefficient values. To illustrate the performance of our new approach, we compare our results against two existing methods. The first method is a limiter-based approach, which relies on estimating velocity gradients of the flow, and the second method is utilized in several commercial codes. Finally, we demonstrate that our new adaptive methodology produces more accurate results for a variety of tests with propagating shock waves, as well as for the aforementioned family of isolated shock problems.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation) [SWR-26-095]
FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation): Multifidelity aerodynamic polar data generation for hydrofoil/tidal-turbine airfoil sections. Foilpolars ties together three pieces: *AeroSandbox supplies the baseline airfoil coordinates (UIUC database). *G2Aero parameterizes those shapes on a Grassmannian manifold (Karcher mean + PGA basis) and samples new perturbed shapes around that basis. *XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate, shipped with AeroSandbox) each solve the resulting shapes for lift, drag, moment, and pressure at the swept angles of attack, Reynolds numbers, and n_crit values. Design optimization of foil shapes in a computationally efficient way requires polars data across many candidate shapes, not just a handful of baseline foils. However, high-fidelity CFD at that scale is too costly, and naive shape perturbation strays from realistic geometries. FOILPOLARS addresses this by loading baseline airfoils (via AeroSandbox) and mapping them onto a Grassmannian manifold (via G2Aero), computing a Karcher mean and principal geodesic analysis (PGA) basis. New shapes are sampled by perturbing PGA coefficients, keeping them close to the manifold of realistic foils. Each sampled shape is evaluated across a configurable sweep of angle of attack, Reynolds number, and critical amplification factor using two solvers: XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate), producing a paired dataset of lift, drag, moment, pressure, convergence, and confidence, indexed alongside each shape's PGA coefficients and shared Grassmannian basis in a single xarray dataset. From this, FOILPOLARS produces convergence summaries and comparison plots per shape, Reynolds number, and n_crit. A command-line interface exposes each pipeline stage independently, supporting data-driven design, optimization, and machine-learning workflows for foils.
Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗
Deception-Based Cyber Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems using Domain-Aware Koopman Learning
Industrial control systems are subject to cyber attacks that produce physical consequences. These attacks can be both hard to detect and protracted. Here, we focus on deception-based sensor bias attacks made against a hierarchical control system where the attacker attempts to be stealthy. We develop a a data-driven, optimization-based attacker model and use the Koopman operator to represent the system dynamics in a domain-aware and computationally efficient manner. Using this model, we compute several different attacks against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. Finally, we discuss some computational considerations and identify avenues for future research.
koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗
Towards Pareto optimal high entropy hydrides via data-driven materials discovery
The ability to rapidly screen material performance in the vast space of high entropy alloys is of critical importance to efficiently identify optimal hydride candidates for various use cases. Given the prohibitive complexity of first principles simulations and large-scale sampling required to rigorously predict hydrogen equilibrium in these systems, we turn to compositional machine learning models as the most feasible approach to screen on the order of tens of thousands of candidate equimolar high entropy alloys (HEAs). Critically, we show that machine learning models can predict hydride thermodynamics and capacities with reasonable accuracy (e.g. a mean absolute error in desorption enthalpy prediction of ~5 kJ mol H 2 –1 ) and that explainability analyses capture the competing trade-offs that arise from feature interdependence. We can therefore elucidate the multi-dimensional Pareto optimal set of materials, i.e., where two or more competing objective properties can't be simultaneously improved by another material. This provides rapid and efficient down-selection of the highest priority candidates for more time-consuming density functional theory investigations and experimental validation. Various targets were selected from the predicted Pareto front (with saturation capacities approaching two hydrogen per metal and desorption enthalpy less than 60 kJ mol H 2 –1 ) and were experimentally synthesized, characterized, and tested amongst an international collaboration group to validate the proposed novel hydrides. Finally, additional top-predicted candidates are suggested to the community for future synthesis efforts, and we conclude with an outlook on improving the current approach for the next generation of computational HEA hydride discovery efforts.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Optimizing dynamic wireless charging for electric buses: A data-driven approach to infrastructure planning
The network configuration significantly impacts the performance of dynamic wireless charging (DWC) technology for electric buses. Here, this study presents a novel approach to planning charging infrastructure for public transit using data-driven nonconvex mixed-integer optimization. Integrating DWC and charging station technologies reveals a trade-off between enroute and stationary charging times. Our framework optimizes bus frequency settings and transmitter coil arrangements to minimize operational and infrastructure costs. A case study in Chattanooga, Tennessee, demonstrates the method's effectiveness in mitigating range anxiety and reducing charging expenses. This research implies that integrating DWC technology into public transit systems can enhance the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of electric bus operations, promoting sustainable urban mobility.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗