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Data from: Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N2O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

The long-term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N2O flux measurements with site-specific Michaelis-Menten kinetics of nitrification-derived N2O, we test the relative importance of nitrification-derived N2O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N2O fluxes was 13-17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27-42% in a low-input cover-cropped annual cropping system, and 52-63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be less than 10% of these values because of low N2O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04 to 8% of NH3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available NH4+ in situ. Most nitrification-derived N2O was produced by ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) rather than archaea (AOA), who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification-derived N2O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification-derived N2O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification-derived N2O (higher Vmax) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N2O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Past and Future Changes in Climate of the Rice-Wheat Cropping Zone in Punjab, Pakistan

Agriculture is ranked top among Pakistan economic sectors vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. The agricultural production system is directly affected by weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall) that are projected to change in future (following increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses). Although Climatic extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves, are expected to increase with detrimental consequences for agriculture and livestock production, yet changes in mean climates also pose challenges to sustainable development. This study presents climate change results for five districts within the major rice-wheat productivity zone of Punjab province in Pakistan. The results are focused on RCP8.5 mid-century (2040-2069) scenarios derived from five global climate models (GCMs) output and the Kharif (June-October) and Rabi (November-April) seasons. Analysis of recent historical weather data of Sialkot and Sheikhupura districts shows an increase in minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures and a large variation in rainfall. This temperature change and variability in rainfall are expected to enhance further as we approach 2050s. The mean maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2-2.5 ºC during the rice growing (Kharif) season and 2.4-2.7ºC during the wheat growing (Rabi) season. Rainfall during the rice growing season is more uncertain, with projections indicating an increase of 25%-35 % in the study region, while a minimal change is expected during the Rabi season. Climax of the rice growing season corresponds with the projected increase in monsoon intensity, leaving no doubt about the crop water demand satisfaction. However, a simultaneous increase in the day and night temperature may affect the growth and development of some critical phenological stages and thus could impact final yield.

Climate Change↗

Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

Abstract The long‐term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N 2 O flux measurements with site‐specific Michaelis–Menten kinetics of nitrification‐derived N 2 O, we test the relative importance of nitrification‐derived N 2 O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N 2 O fluxes was 13%–17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27%–42% in a low‐input cover‐cropped annual cropping system, and 52%–63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be <10% of these values because of low N 2 O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04%–8% of NH 3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available in situ. Most nitrification‐derived N 2 O was produced by ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria rather than archaea, who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification‐derived N 2 O (higher V max ) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N 2 O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid denitrification of nitrate-contaminated groundwater in a low-gradient blackwater stream valley

Leaching of excess nitrogen (N) to groundwater in fertilized landscapes can overwhelm natural biogeochemical processes and cause long-term eutrophication of aquatic systems. We investigated N fate and transport from an intensively managed short-rotation woody crop (Pinus taeda) plantation through the riparian zone of an intermittent, low-gradient blackwater stream. Fertilization of the P. taeda plantation on the uplands resulted in contamination of groundwater with nitrate concentrations between 0.9 and 1.9 mg N L -1 . No corresponding increase in nitrate was observed in stream water or shallow groundwater in the riparian zone. Groundwater travel-time modeling predicted that N from near-stream, upland plantation areas should have reached streams during the monitoring period. Two years of measuring N species in well water in contrasting landscape positions (within the plantation, swale, riparian edge, forested hillslope, and valley), indicated rapid nitrate transformation and denitrification within the forested wetland valleys. Denitrification in the shallow groundwater system within the toeslopes and the riparian zone was estimated to have removed > 90% of nitrate. Finally, these results highlight the importance of riparian zones as pathways for the removal of N and for controlling downstream N loads.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connecting agriculture and renewable energy: insights into microclimatic changes, physiological, biochemical, and yield responses under agrivoltaics: a review

Agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of agriculture and solar energy production on the same piece of land, has emerged as a compelling dual-use solution that maximizes land productivity while simultaneously addressing the need for sustainable agricultural practices and renewable energy generation. Despite the growing global interest in this dual-use system, the microclimatic shifts created beneath solar panels and their consequences for crop performance remain insufficiently synthesized. This review highlights the intricate interactions between agrivoltaics systems and plant microclimates, discussing their impacts on various physiological processes, metabolic pathways, and overall yield responses in different crop species. Evidence indicates that moderated light intensity and altered microclimates can enhance water-use efficiency, stabilize photosynthetic function, and trigger beneficial metabolic adjustments; however, responses remain highly species-specific and strongly dependent on regional climate conditions and panel configuration. Yield outcomes vary widely among vegetables, cereals, pulses, and fruit crops, highlighting the necessity for tailored agronomic strategies and crop selection within agrivoltaic designs. A critical knowledge gap identified in this review concerns the limited understanding of molecular and omics-level responses underlying plant adaptation to agrivoltaic environments. We further provide a detailed and interdisciplinary overview of adaptive agronomic strategies, and optimal crop selection, tailored to agrivoltaic systems. Despite the benefits of land use efficiency and simultaneous food and energy production, challenges remain concerning initial investment, technological adaptation, social and legal barriers, and shade-induced yield penalties. Further research in this area will be critical to enhancing the agricultural, environmental, and economic sustainability of agrivoltaics while simultaneously augmenting their practical utility and appeal to farmers in the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spectral composition of light and growing of plants in controlled environments

The main conclusions of many investigations about general requirements of plants for spectral composition of PAR (photosynthetically active radiation) are based on phylogenetic aspects of plant growth. We think that these aspects are not the main criteria in choosing the spectral composition required for growing plants in controlled conditions. Our approach to this problem is based on plant and crop reaction under long duration growth with specific spectra and intensity. Only in this way can we determine correctly the role of light characteristics for developing crops.

Tikhomirov, Alexander A.↗

Chlorophyll Fluorescence Emissions of Vegetation Canopies From High Resolution Field Reflectance Spectra

A two-year experiment was performed on corn (Zea mays L.) crops under nitrogen (N) fertilization regimes to examine the use of hyperspectral canopy reflectance information for estimating chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) and vegetation production. Fluorescence of foliage in the laboratory has proven more rigorous than reflectance for correlation to plant physiology. Especially useful are emissions produced from two stable red and far-red chlorophyll ChlF peaks centered at 685V10 nm and 735V5 nm. Methods have been developed elsewhere to extract steady state solar induced fluorescence (SF) from apparent reflectance of vegetation canopies/landscapes using the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) principal. Our study utilized these methods in conjunction with field-acquired high spectral resolution canopy reflectance spectra obtained in 2004 and 2005 over corn crops, as part of an ongoing multi-year experiment at the USDA/Agriculture Research Service in Beltsville, MD. A spectroradiometer (ASD-FR Fieldspec Pro, Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc., Boulder, CO) was used to measure canopy radiances 1 m above plant canopies with a 22deg field of view and a 0deg nadir view zenith angle. Canopy and plant measurements were made at the R3 grain fill reproductive stage on 3-4 replicate N application plots provided seasonal inputs of 280, 140, 70, and 28 kg N/ha. Leaf level measurements were also made which included ChlF, photosynthesis, and leaf constituents (photosynthetic pigment, carbon (C), and N contents). Crop yields were determined at harvest. SIF intensities for ChlF were derived directly from canopy reflectance spectra in specific narrowband regions associated with atmospheric oxygen absorption features centered at 688 and 760 nm. The red/far-red S F ratio derived from these field reflectance spectra successfully discriminated foliar pigment levels (e.g., total chlorophyll, Chl) associated with N application rates in both corn crops. This canopy-level spectral ratio was also positively correlated to the foliar C/N ratio (r = 0.89, n = go), as was a leaf-level steady state fluorescence ratio (Fs/Chl, r = 0.92). The latter ratio was inversely correlated with crop grain yield (Kg 1 ha) (r = 0.9). This study has relevance to future passive satellite remote sensing approaches to monitoring C dynamics from space.

Middleton, E. M.↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

Alternative splicing of OsGS1;1 affects nitrogen‐use efficiency, grain development, and amylose content in rice

SUMMARY Excessive nitrogen fertilizer application is harmful to the environment and reduces the quality of cereal crops. Maintaining crop yields under low nitrogen (LN) conditions and improving quality are important goals for cereal crop breeding. Although the effects of nitrogen assimilation on crop nitrogen‐use efficiency (NUE) have been intensively studied, natural variations of the key assimilation genes underlying grain development and quality are largely unclear. Here, we identified an NUE‐associated gene, OsGS1;1 , encoding glutamine synthase, through genome‐wide association analysis, followed by validation experiments and functional analysis. Fifteen single‐nucleotide polymorphisms in the OsGS1;1 region led to alternative splicing that generated two functional transcripts: OsGS1;1a and OsGS1;1b . The elite haplotype of OsGS1;1 showed high OsGS1;1b activity, which improved NUE, affected grain development, and reduced amylose content. The results show that OsGS1;1 , which is induced under LN conditions, affects grain formation by regulating sugar metabolism and may provide a new avenue for the breeding of high‐yield and high‐quality rice ( Oryza sativa ).

Liu, Xiaolan↗

Bhutan Agriculture II: Creating a Graphical User Interface, Crop Mask, and Data Collection Protocol for Analysis of Rice Crop in Bhutan Using Remotely Sensed Data

Agriculture is an important sector in Bhutan, accounting for 19.63% of Bhutan’s GDP in 2020 (World Bank) while also providing livelihoods for approximately 57% of the population (World Bank, 2017). The Department of Agriculture (DoA) in Bhutan still relies on in-field reporting for crop monitoring, which is time-consuming and labour intensive. To promote efficiency in these efforts, the team partnered with the DoA, the Bhutan Foundation, and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER). The team, with the help of the science advisors from NASA SERVIR, expanded the crop mask created in the previous term to the whole country of Bhutan and streamlined the sampling protocols for applicability to any available crop data. The team also created a graphical user interface (GUI) which provided a visual representation of current trends and rice distribution across Bhutan. The team utilized NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), as well as other Earth observations including Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR). This project refined the previous term’s methodology to help supplement crop monitoring and increase the frequency of data collected to aid decision-making processes with the use of remote sensing data.

Wangdrak Dorji​↗

A Passive Method for Detecting Vegetation Stress from Orbit: Chlorophyll Fluorescence Spectra from Fraunhofer Lines

Solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence measured with the Fraunhofer line depth method has correlated well with vegetation stress in previous studies. However, the instruments used in those studies were limited to a single solar absorption line (e.g. 656.3 nm), obviating the red/far-red ratio (R/FR) method. Optics and detector technology have reached the level whereby multiple, very narrow Fraunhofer lines are resolvable. Thirteen such lines span the visible spectrum in the red to far-red region where chlorophyll fluorescence occurs. Fluorescence intensities at the 13 Fraunhofer line wavelengths were used to model emission spectra. The source data were collected for summer and fall bean crops (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) subjected to various levels of nitrogen fertilization. The intensities were adjusted to account for Fraunhofer line depth and atmospheric transmittance. Multiple R/FR fluorescence ratios, calculated from the modeled fluorescence spectra, correlated strongly with leaf chlorophyll concentration and well with applied nitrogen. The ratio yielding the best correlation with chlorophyll utilized red fluorescence at the 694.5 nm Fraunhofer line and farred fluorescence at the 755.6 nm Fraunhofer line. Twenty R/FR ratios, each evaluated for the maximum differential between low and high (optimal) nitrogen treatments, ranked higher in some cases and lower in others, possibly related to the time of year the crops were grown and the stage of growth of the crops. Ratios with 728.9 nm and 738.9 nm in the denominator consistently ranked in the lowest and next lowest quartile, respectively. Ratios of the 656.3 nm Fraunhofer line and the 755.6 nm line consistently ranked highest for the summer crop. Ratios with 755.6 nm in the denominator ranked in the upper quartile for 10 out of 12 measurement dates. Differences in ratio ranking indicate that physiological conditions may be estimated using selected ratios of Fraunhofer lines within the context of R/FR analysis. A passive instrument designed to monitor R/FR chlorophyll fluorescence (i.e. vegetation stress) from orbit could be built today.

Theisen, Arnold F.↗

Land conversion to energy crops for sustainable aviation fuel production reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

Energy crops will be critical for scaling up production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the United States and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Here we examine the economic incentives for the extent and type of land conversion needed to scale up fuel production from a mix of cellulosic feedstocks and quantify its greenhouse gas intensity. We show that even with the availability of marginal non-cropland, there will be incentives for converting cropland to produce energy crops as the price of sustainable aviation fuel increases. But contrary to expectations, we find that scaling up fuel production by converting more cropland and more non-cropland from existing uses to energy crops lowers its net greenhouse gas intensity, due to high soil carbon sequestration rate of energy crops, even after considering land use change emissions. The potential savings in emissions are larger than the foregone soil carbon accumulation benefits from keeping that land in current uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using supervised machine-learning approaches to understand abiotic stress tolerance and design resilient crops

Abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity and flooding significantly impact plant growth, development and productivity. As the planet has warmed, these abiotic stresses have increased in frequency and intensity, affecting the global food supply and making it imperative to develop stress-resilient crops. In the past 20 years, the development of omics technologies has contributed to the growth of datasets for plants grown under a wide range of abiotic environments. Integration of these rapidly growing data using machine-learning (ML) approaches can complement existing breeding efforts by providing insights into the mechanisms underlying plant responses to stressful conditions, which can be used to guide the design of resilient crops. In this review, we introduce ML approaches and provide examples of how researchers use these approaches to predict molecular activities, gene functions and genotype responses under stressful conditions. Finally, we consider the potential and challenges of using such approaches to enable the design of crops that are better suited to a changing environment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the ‘Resilience Revolution’?’.

abiotic stress↗

Harvesting Microgreens in Microgravity: Analysis of Six Different Methods

In long duration space missions, crops will be used to supplement the astronaut diet. One such proposed crop type is microgreens, the young seedlings of edible plants that are known for their high nutritional levels, intense flavors, colorful appearance, and variety of textures. While these characteristics make microgreens a great candidate for space crop production, their small size presents a unique challenge within the microgravity environment. To ensure that astronauts will be able to harvest microgreens in microgravity with ease while avoiding the introduction of debris to the spacecraft cabin, multiple harvesting methods were developed by the Space Crop Production Team at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Three parabolic flights were conducted in November and December of 2021 and during those flights three different microgreen cutting methods (guillotine, pepper grinder, scissors) as well as two different bagging methods (attached and manual) were tested. In each flight, the microgreens were contained inside of a glovebox and footage of all the microgreen harvests was recorded. The cutting and bagging method combination that introduced the lowest average number of particulates into the glovebox was the scissors with attached bagging, closely followed by the pepper grinder with attached bagging. However, the scissors with attached bagging may had introduced fewer particulates into the glovebox because on average, 27% of the microgreens were never cut using the scissors method, so there were fewer free-floating particulates generated. The cutting and bagging method combination that left the lowest average percentage of microgreens remaining on the hardware post-harvest was the pepper grinder with an attached bag. Future directions include involving microgreen harvests in analog environments and further development of the different microgreen cutting and bagging methods. This research was funded by multiple NASA grants at the Kennedy Space Center.

Haley O Boles↗

Soil carbon change in intensive agriculture after 25 years of conservation management

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) are strongly affected by land management but few long-term comparative studies have surveyed changes throughout the whole soil profile. We quantified 25-year SOC and SON changes to 1 m in 10 replicate ecosystems at an Upper Midwest, USA site. We compared four annual cropping systems in maize (Zea mays)-soybean (Glycine max)-winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) rotations, each managed differently (Conventional, No-till, Reduced input, and Biologically based); in three managed perennial systems (hybrid Poplar (Populus × euramericana), Alfalfa (Medicago sativa), and Conifer (Pinus spp.); and in three successional systems (Early, Mid- and Late succession undergoing a gradual change in species composition and structure over time). Both Reduced input and Biologically based systems included winter cover crops. Neither SOC nor SON changed significantly in the Conventional or Late successional systems over 25 years. All other systems gained SOC and SON to different degrees. SOC accrual was fastest in the Early successional system (0.8 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ) followed by Alfalfa and Conifer (avg. 0.7 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), Poplar, Reduced input, and Biologically based systems (avg. 0.4 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), and Mid-successional and No-till systems (0.3 and 0.2 Mg C ha –1 y –1 , respectively). Over the most recent 12 years, rates of SOC accrual slowed in all systems except Reduced input and Mid-successional. There was no evidence of SOC loss at depth in any system, including No-till. Rates of SON accrual ranged from 64.7 to 0.8 kg N ha –1 y –1 in the order Alfalfa ≥ Early successional > Reduced input and Biologically based ≥ Poplar > No-till and Conifer > Mid-successional systems. Pyrogenic C levels in the Conventional, Early, and Late successional systems were similar despite 17 years of annual burning in the Early successional system (~ 15 % of SOC to 50 cm, on average, and ~40 % of SOC from 50 to 100 cm). Results underscore the importance of cover crops, perennial crops, and no-till options for sequestering whole profile C in intensively managed croplands.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Phenotyping stomatal closure by thermal imaging for GWAS and TWAS of water use efficiency-related genes

Abstract Stomata allow CO2 uptake by leaves for photosynthetic assimilation at the cost of water vapor loss to the atmosphere. The opening and closing of stomata in response to fluctuations in light intensity regulate CO2 and water fluxes and are essential for maintaining water-use efficiency (WUE). However, a little is known about the genetic basis for natural variation in stomatal movement, especially in C4 crops. This is partly because the stomatal response to a change in light intensity is difficult to measure at the scale required for association studies. Here, we used high-throughput thermal imaging to bypass the phenotyping bottleneck and assess 10 traits describing stomatal conductance (gs) before, during and after a stepwise decrease in light intensity for a diversity panel of 659 sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) accessions. Results from thermal imaging significantly correlated with photosynthetic gas exchange measurements. gs traits varied substantially across the population and were moderately heritable (h2 up to 0.72). An integrated genome-wide and transcriptome-wide association study identified candidate genes putatively driving variation in stomatal conductance traits. Of the 239 unique candidate genes identified with the greatest confidence, 77 were putative orthologs of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) genes related to functions implicated in WUE, including stomatal opening/closing (24 genes), stomatal/epidermal cell development (35 genes), leaf/vasculature development (12 genes), or chlorophyll metabolism/photosynthesis (8 genes). These findings demonstrate an approach to finding genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a challenging trait as well as candidate genes for further investigation of the genetic basis of WUE in a model C4 grass for bioenergy, food, and forage production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗