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NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1994

Supersymmetry and radial squeezed states for Rydberg wave packets

Atomic supersymmetry provides an analytical effective-potential model useful for describing certain aspects of Rydberg atoms. Experiments have recently demonstrated the existence of Rydberg wave packets localized in the radial coordinated with p-state angular distribution. This paper shows how atomic supersymmetry can be used to treat radial Rydberg wave packets via a particular analytical type of squeezed state, called a radial squeezed state.

Bluhm, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Toward Realistic Dynamics of Rotating Orbital Debris, and Implications for Lightcurve Interpretation

Optical observations of rotating space debris near GEO contain important information on size, shape, composition, and rotational states, but these aspects are difficult to extract due to data limitations and the high number of degrees of freedom in the modeling process. For tri-axial rigid debris objects created by satellite fragmentations, the most likely initial rotation state has a large component of initial angular velocity directed along the intermediate axis of inertia, leading to large angular reorientations of the body on the timescale of the rotation period. This lends some support to the simplest possible interpretation of light curves -- that they represent sets of random orientations of the objects of study. However, effects of internal friction and solar radiation are likely to cause significant modification of rotation states within a time as short as a few orbital periods. In order to examine the rotational dynamics of debris objects under the influences of these effects, a set of seven first-order coupled equations of motion were assembled in state form: three are Euler equations describing the rates of change of the components of angular velocity in the body frame, and four describe the rates of change of the components of the unit quaternion. Quaternions are a four-dimensional extension of complex numbers that form a seamless, singularity-free representation of body orientation on S3. The Euler equations contain explicit terms describing torque from solar radiation in terms of spherical harmonics, and terms representing effects of a prescribed rate of internal friction. Numerical integrations of these equations of motion are being performed, and results will be presented. Initial tests show that internal friction without solar radiation torque leads to rotation about the maximum principal axis of inertia, as required, and solar radiation torque is expected to lead to spin-up of objects. Because the axis of maximum rotational inertia tends to be roughly coincident with the normal to the largest projected cross-sectional area, internal friction is expected to lead to reduced variation of light curve amplitudes at a given phase angle, but a large dependence of the same on phase angle. At a given phase angle, databases are generated which contain reflected intensities for comprehensive sets of equally-likely orientations, represented as unit quaternions. When projected onto three dimensions (S2) and color-coded by intensity, the set is depicted as points within a solid, semi-transparent unit sphere, within which all possible reflected intensities for an object at a given phase angle may be inspected simultaneously. Rotational sequences are represented by trajectories through the sphere. Databases are generated for each of a set of phase angles separately, forming a comprehensive dataset of reflected intensities spanning all object orientations and solar phase angles. Symmetries in the problem suggest that preferred rotation states are likely, defined relative to the object-sun direction in inertial space and relative to the maximum principal axis of inertia in the body coordinate system. Such rotation states may greatly simplify the problem of light curve interpretation by reducing the number of degrees of freedom in the problem.

Ojakangas, Gregory W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Improved State Estimation in Distorted Magnetic Fields

The magnetic field of the Earth – besides varying naturally – may be disturbed locally by the (man-made) environment. State estimation and corresponding navigation frameworks that use magnetometers on-board of mobile platforms suffer from severe performance loss or failure upon local magnetic distortions if these are not detected and mitigated adequately. Advanced estimators include the magnetic variation in the state vector. However, Cartesian coordinates, although widely used in the literature, suffer from observability issues when it comes to disturbance detection. This paper shows the importance of representing the magnetic variation in a spherical coordinate system and subsequent improvements with respect to the common representation in Cartesian coordinates. The spherical representation improves estimator consistency and allows for accurate and fast mitigation of magnetic disturbances through consistent statistical tests which leads to better system state estimates in magnetically distorted areas. The approach is validated by performing tests with simulated and real-world data on embedded hardware.

Brommer, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1980

State estimation and absolute image registration for geosynchronous satellites

Spacecraft state estimation and the absolute registration of Earth images acquired by cameras onboard geosynchronous satellites are described. The basic data type of the procedure consists of line and element numbers of image points called landmarks whose geodetic coordinates, relative to United States Geodetic Survey topographic maps, are known. A conventional least squares process is used to estimate navigational parameters and camera pointing biases from observed minus computed landmark line and element numbers. These estimated parameters along with orbit and attitude dynamic models are used to register images, using an automated grey level correlation technique, inside the span represented by the landmark data. In addition, the dynamic models can be employed to register images outside of the data span in a near real time mode. An important application of this mode is in support of meteorological studies where rapid data reduction is required for the rapid tracking and predicting of dynamic phenomena.

Nankervis, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Conservative-variable average states for equilibrium gas multi-dimensional fluxes

Modern split component evaluations of the flux vector Jacobians are thoroughly analyzed for equilibrium-gas average-state determinations. It is shown that all such derivations satisfy a fundamental eigenvalue consistency theorem. A conservative-variable average state is then developed for arbitrary equilibrium-gas equations of state and curvilinear-coordinate fluxes. Original expressions for eigenvalues, sound speed, Mach number, and eigenvectors are then determined for a general average Jacobian, and it is shown that the average eigenvalues, Mach number, and eigenvectors may not coincide with their classical pointwise counterparts. A general equilibrium-gas equation of state is then discussed for conservative-variable computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Euler formulations. The associated derivations lead to unique compatibility relations that constrain the pressure Jacobian derivatives. Thereafter, alternative forms for the pressure variation and average sound speed are developed in terms of two average pressure Jacobian derivatives. Significantly, no additional degree of freedom exists in the determination of these two average partial derivatives of pressure. Therefore, they are simultaneously computed exactly without any auxiliary relation, hence without any geometric solution projection or arbitrary scale factors. Several alternative formulations are then compared and key differences highlighted with emphasis on the determination of the pressure variation and average sound speed. The relevant underlying assumptions are identified, including some subtle approximations that are inherently employed in published average-state procedures. Finally, a representative test case is discussed for which an intrinsically exact average state is determined. This exact state is then compared with the predictions of recent methods, and their inherent approximations are appropriately quantified.

Iannelli, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Applications of remote-sensing data in Alaska

Public and private agencies were introduced to the use of remotely sensed data obtained by both satellite and aircraft, and benefitted from facilities for data processing enhancement and interpretation as well as from the institute's data library. Cooperative ventures involving the performance of operational activities included assistance to the Bureau of Land Management in the suppression of wildfires; the selection of sites for power line right-of-way; the mapping of leads in sea ice; determination of portions of public lands to be allocated for small scale farming; the identification of areas for large scale farming of barley; the observation of coastal processes and sediment transport near Prudhoe Bay; the establishment of a colar infrared file of the entire state; and photomapping for geological surveys. Monitoring of the outer continental shelf environment and reindeer herds was also conducted. Institutional constraints to full utilization of satellite remote sensing in the state are explored and plans for future activites include the generation of awareness by government agencies, the training of state personnel, and improving coordination and communication with users.

Miller, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Minimum fuel horizontal flightpaths in the terminal area

The problem of minimum fuel airplane trajectories from arbitrary initial states to be fixed final state is considered. There are four state variables (two position coordinates, heading, and constrained velocity) and two constrained controls (thrust and bank angle). The fuel optimality of circular and straight line flightpaths is examined. Representative extremals (trajectories satisfying the necessary conditions of the minimum principle) of various types are computed and used to evaluate trajectories generated by an on line algorithm. Attention is paid to the existence of Darboux points (beyond which an extremal ceases to be globally optimal). One fuel flow rate model includes a term quadratic in thrust; hence, the optimal thrust is continuous and nonsingular. The other fuel flow rate model is linear in thrust, and consequently the optimal thrust is discontinuous and singular.

Kreindler, E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Darboux points in minimum-fuel aircraft landing problems

An algorithm for suboptimal flight paths is used to show the existence of Darboux points on extremals of a fourth-order minimum-fuel horizontal aircraft landing problem; the states are two position coordinates, velocity and heading. It is shown that there is no simple relationship between Darboux points and conjugate points for a special second-order case of capturing a line at constant velocity.

Kreindler, E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A computational algorithm for spacecraft control and momentum management

Developments in the area of nonlinear control theory have shown how coordinate changes in the state and input spaces of a dynamical system can be used to transform certain nonlinear differential equations into equivalent linear equations. These techniques are applied to the control of a spacecraft equipped with momentum exchange devices. An optimal control problem is formulated that incorporates a nonlinear spacecraft model. An algorithm is developed for solving the optimization problem using feedback linearization to transform to an equivalent problem involving a linear dynamical constraint and a functional approximation technique to solve for the linear dynamics in terms of the control. The original problem is transformed into an unconstrained nonlinear quadratic program that yields an approximate solution to the original problem. Two examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Dzielski, John↗
NASA NTRS1998

Unstructured Finite Volume Computational Thermo-Fluid Dynamic Method for Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Design Optimization

This paper describes a finite volume computational thermo-fluid dynamics method to solve for Navier-Stokes equations in conjunction with energy equation and thermodynamic equation of state in an unstructured coordinate system. The system of equations have been solved by a simultaneous Newton-Raphson method and compared with several benchmark solutions. Excellent agreements have been obtained in each case and the method has been found to be significantly faster than conventional Computational Fluid Dynamic(CFD) methods and therefore has the potential for implementation in Multi-Disciplinary analysis and design optimization in fluid and thermal systems. The paper also describes an algorithm of design optimization based on Newton-Raphson method which has been recently tested in a turbomachinery application.

Majumdar, Alok↗
NASA NTRS2004

Deep Space Test Bed

The DSTB Facility provides a new capability for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA s) Space Radiation Shielding Project (SRSP). The objective of the DSTB is to provide a platform to conduct radiation shielding investigations in an environment more similar to deep space than most Low Earth orbits or is achievable at a particle accelerator. The DSTB provides a means to experimentally test radiation shielding effectiveness of various materials and to test the accuracy of radiation transport code predictions in the deep space cosmic ray environment more frequently and at a lower cost compared to space flight missions. New spectrometers, dosimeters and other techniques may be exercised and verified using the DSTB before space flight. The DSTB will be implemented through NASA s National Scientific Balloon Facility (NSBF) which provides polar balloon flights that lift science payloads to high altitude (120,000 A. (36.58km)) to escape much of the shielding effects of the Earth s atmosphere and magnetosphere. Polar flights are conducted through NSBF in coordination with the United States Polar Program. The DSTB will be launched on a Long Duration Balloon (LDB) from McMurdo, Antarctica (77.86 degrees south latitude) for circumpolar flights, nominally 20 days, traveling to the west and typically bounded between 73 to 82 degrees south latitude. Float altitudes for these balloons with payload are 115,000 to 130,000 feet (35.05 to 39.62km). The DSTB will be able to accommodate up to 20 investigations per flight. Annual flight opportunities are planned starting in December 2005. Balloon campaigns in Antarctica occur in December and January during the Austral summer. Since a key goal of the DSTB facility is to efficiently serve the varied needs of the radiation shielding community; it must be designed with a flexible architecture. By implementing the DSTB facility with NASA s balloon program, which operates under reduced formalities compared to space flight, the DSTB facility can adjust for different investigation priorities on successive flights. This flexibility in the DSTB will be applied at several levels; in the distribution of the shared resources for each flight; addressing the payload configuration on a system level for each flight; and utilizing a selection process for investigations that considers yearly flight opportunities as well as the possibility for repeated flights. This approach for operating the DSTB facility will allow it to handle a wide range of investigations.

Milton, Martha E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Ames DEVELOP Interns: Helping the Western United States Manage Natural Resources One Project at a Time

The western half of the United States is made up of a number of diverse ecosystems ranging from arid desert to coastal wetlands and rugged forests. Every summer for the past 7 years students ranging from high school to graduate level gather at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) as part of the DEVELOP Internship Program. Under the guidance of Jay Skiles [Ames Research Center (ARC) - Ames DEVELOP Manager] and Cindy Schmidt [ARC/San Jose State University Ames DEVELOP Coordinator] they work as a team on projects exploring topics including: invasive species, carbon flux, wetland restoration, air quality monitoring, storm visualizations, and forest fires. The study areas for these projects have been in Washington, Utah, Oregon, Nevada, Hawaii, Alaska and California. Interns combine data from NASA and partner satellites with models and in situ measurements to complete prototype projects demonstrating how NASA data and resources can help communities tackle their Earth Science related problems.

Justice, Erin↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

Cole, Tony A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗