Contrasting aerosol refractive index and hygroscopicity in the inflow and outflow of deep convective storms: Analysis of airborne data from DC3
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Armin Sorooshian↗
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Convective-Storm Environments in Subtropical South America from High-Frequency Soundings during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dependencies of Four Mechanisms of Secondary Ice Production on Cloud-Top Temperature in a Continental Convective Storm
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Tropical Convection Through the Lens of the INCUS Mission
The overarching goal of the recently selected NASA INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS) mission is to enhance our understanding of why, when and where tropical convective storms form, and why only some of these storms produce extreme weather. Convective storms provide an important pathway for the transport of air and water between Earth’s surface and the upper troposphere. This vertical transport of air and water, often referred to as convective mass flux (CMF), plays a critical role in Earth’s weather and climate system through its impacts on microphysical and precipitation rates, detrainment and upper tropospheric moistening, high cloud feedbacks, and the large-scale circulation. Potential changes to the CMF as a function of the local environment or with changing climates may also have significant implications for severe weather such as flood-producing rainfall, damaging hail and lightning. In spite of the critical role of this vertical transport of water and air, representation of CMF remains a major source of error in weather and climate models, thereby limiting our ability to accurately predict convective storms and their impacts. The tropics-wide observations from INCUS will enhance our understanding of tropical convective storm processes and will provide guidance for representing these processes in numerical models across scales. INCUS is comprised of three SmallSat platforms each carrying a RainCube-heritage Ka-band 7-beam scanning radar. The satellite platforms will be 30 and 90 seconds apart, thus providing three time intervals (30, 90 and 120 seconds) over which observations will be made. INCUS will investigate CMF using a novel time-differenced radar reflectivity profile approach. In addition to the Ka-band radar, a single TEMPEST-D-heritage cross-track-scanning passive microwave radiometer will be housed on the middle SmallSat. The radiometer will provide extensive storm context for the radar observations, as well as observations of the convective anvils. The combination of the radars and radiometer on INCUS will deliver unprecedented three-dimensional views of tropical convective storms. INCUS is the first systematic investigation of the rapidly evolving CMF within tropical convective storms, the observations of which are expected to significantly enhance both our understanding and prediction of storm structure, their dynamics and microphysical processes, and the ways in which these evolve over storm lifetimes. This presentation will highlight the observational capabilities and scientific approach of the INCUS mission.
Susan C. van den Heever↗
Evaluation of deep convective transport in storms from different convective regimes during the DC3 field campaign using WRF‐Chem with lightning data assimilation
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Yunyao Li↗
Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A WRF-Chem Analysis of Flash Rates, Lightning-NOx Production and Subsequent Trace Gas Chemistry of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3
The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). This is a continuation of previous work, which compared lightning observations (Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array and National Lightning Detection Network) with flashes generated by various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) from the literature in a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm. Based on the Oklahoma radar observations and Lightning Mapping Array data, new FRPSs are being generated and incorporated into the model. The focus of this analysis is on estimating the amount of lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced per flash in this storm through a series of model simulations using different production per flash assumptions and comparisons with DC3 aircraft anvil observations. The result of this analysis will be compared with previously studied mid-latitude storms. Additional model simulations are conducted to investigate the upper troposphere transport, distribution, and chemistry of the LNOx plume during the 24 hours following the convective event to investigate ozone production. These model-simulated mixing ratios are compared against the aircraft observations made on 30 May over the southern Appalachians.
Cummings, Kristin A.↗
A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3
The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.
Cloud physics↗
A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3
The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.
Atmospheric chemistry↗
Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports
Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.
Dworak, Richard↗
An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux
A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.
Mack, R. A.↗
Thunderstorm-environment interactions determined with three-dimensional trajectories
Diagnostically determined three dimensional trajectories were used to reveal some of the scale interaction processes that occur between convective storms and their environment. Data from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment are analyzed. Two intense squall lines and numerous reports of severe weather occurred during the period. Convective storm systems with good temporal and spatial continuity are shown to be related to the development and movement of short wave circulation systems aloft that propagate eastward within a zonal mid tropospheric wind pattern. These short wave systems are found to produce the potential instability and dynamic triggering needed for thunderstorm formation. The environmental flow patterns, relative to convective storm systems, are shown to produce large upward air parcel movements in excess of 50 mb/3h in the immediate vicinity of the storms. The air undergoing strong lifting originates as potentially unstable low level air traveling into the storm environment from southern and southwestern directions. The thermo and hydrodynamical processes that lead to changes in atmospheric structure before, during, and after convective storm formation are described using total time derivatives of pressure or net vertical displacement, potential temperature, and vector wind calculated by following air parcels.
Wilson, G. S.↗
Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests
Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.
biomass carbon↗
Deep convection in mesoscale convective systems
A study was undertaken to examine the evolution of radar echoes and lightning attending the convective storms in mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and the relationships between the spatial and temporal evolution of deep convection and the storm environment, precipitation, severe weather, and lightning. The total number of ground discharges ranges from 10,000 to 30,000 over the life cycle of the MCS with peak sustained rates (for up to 10 consecutive hours) in excess of 2000 per hour. The peak lightning activity occurs from 5 to 20 hours after the first storms and anywhere from 7 hours prior to 7 hours after the time of the maximum areal extent of the MCS for very similar synoptic environments. Thus, it appears that mesoscale and sub-synoptic scale mechanisms are responsible for these large temporal variation in lightning activity. In addition, we have found that the lightning rates in MCS's are not related to either the size or the duration of the MCS. Preliminary results suggest that the MCA's with embedded squall lines produce the greatest flash rates.
Goodman, S. J.↗
TRACER-MAP: Mapping Aerosol Processes Across Houston During Convective Cell Events
The Houston, TX Metropolitan area was selected for the 2022 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) due to its high convective storm activity and broad range of polluted aerosol conditions. With the overall TRACER project in mind, we planned TRACER-MAP, a related investigation of the impacts of convective storms on atmospheric composition, chemistry and aerosol processing in Houston. Because the Houston metroplex is large and has a wide range of atmospheric conditions, this project has “MAP-ped” the air chemistry conditions across Houston while atmospheric scientists working in the TRACER project monitor convective storm activity overhead. Specifically, we conducted a series of aerosol, gas, and meteorological measurements in the summer of 2022 that matches measurements from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facilities. The TRACER-MAP campaign extended from Jul 1 – Sept 3, 2022. TRACER-MAP included two urban sites: Aldine and University of Houston (UH); two industrial sites: San Jacinto Battleground and the main DOE TRACER site at the La Porte Municipal Airport (ARM/La Porte AMF); and one background site in WG Jones State Forest north of Houston.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The relation of radar to cloud area-time integrals and implications for rain measurements from space
The relationships between satellite-based and radar-measured area-time integrals (ATI) for convective storms are determined, and both are shown to depend on the climatological conditional mean rain rate and the ratio of the measured cloud area to the actual rain area of the storms. The GOES precipitation index of Arkin (1986) for convective storms, an area-time integral for satellite cloud areas, is shown to be related to the ATI for radar-observed rain areas. The quality of GPI-based rainfall estimates depends on how well the cloud area is related to the rain area and the size of the sampling domain. It is also noted that the use of a GOES cloud ATI in conjunction with the radar area-time integral will improve the accuracy of rainfall estimates and allow such estimates to be made in much smaller space-time domains than the 1-month and 5-deg boxes anticipated for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.
Atlas, David↗
Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in mesoscale convective complexes
An analysis of the evolution of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges attending convective storms in mesoscale convective systems was conducted in the framework of the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) life cycle. The lightning discharge data were acquired by a commercially available lightning detection and location system. Peak rates averaged 42/min for the MCCs analyzed; these rates are comparable to the highest observed rates within other mesoscale storm systems and are greater than 20 times the rates previously observed in isolated thunderstorms. Lightning damage occurs with half of the MCCs and is most frequent between the development and the mature phases of the MCC life cycle. The most active period is also characterized by the greatest average number of discrete strokes and largest fraction of multiple-stroke discharges. The total cloud-to-ground lightning activity and maximum flashing rate do not appear to be directly related to either the size of the cloud shield or total duration of the MCC.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems
Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗