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At least 73 records · Page 4

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has conducted are view of the historical record of high-risk conjunctions involving CARA-protected missions and evaluated whether (and how much) differential drag can provide effective mitigation. From this analysis, CARA has identified a rule of thumb: missions with perigees below 560 km capable of tripling their drag area for 72 hours(or a larger scale factor for a lesser amount of time) can reliably use differential drag to remediate high-risk events.

mission design

A model of SNR degradation during solar conjunction

The downlink signal from spacecraft in solar conjunction phases suffers a drastic reduction in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Responsible in large part for this effect is the increase in system noise temperature (SNT) in the ground antenna-receiver system. An empirical model is presented of SNR degradation due to increasing SNT during solar conjunction phases.

Rockwell, S. T.

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of elliptical contacts for materials of low elastic modulus. 1: Fully flooded conjunction

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication concepts of conjunctions of elliptical form are applied to materials of low elastic modulus. The influence of the ellipticity parameter and the dimensionless speed, load, and material parameters on minimum film thickness for these materials has been investigated. The ellipticity parameter was varied from a ball on plate configuration to a configuration approaching a line contact. The dimensionless speed and load parameters were varied by 1 order of magnitude. Seventeen different cases were used to generate minimum and central film thickness relations. Contour plots are presented that illustrate the pressure distribution and film thickness in the conjunction.

Hamrock, B. J.

An empirical spectral bandwidth model for superior conjunction

The downlink signal from spacecraft in superior solar conjunction phases suffers a great reduction in signal-to-noise ratio. Responsible in large part for this effect is the line broadening of the signal spectrum. An analytic empirical expression was developed for spectral bandwidth as a function of heliocentric distance from 1 to 20 solar radii. The study is based on spectral broadening data obtained from the superior conjunctions of Helios 1 (1975), Helios 2 (1976), and Pioneer 6 (1968). The empirical fit is based in part on a function describing the electron content in the solar corona.

Rockwell, R. S.

Radial and solar cycle variations in the solar wind phase fluctuation spectral index as determined from Voyager 1978 solar conjunction data

Columnar spectral index information that has been extracted from a sizable volume of Voyager 1978 solar conjunction Doppler phase fluctuation data is presented. The Voyager 1978 results, when compared to similar information derived from the 1976 Helios and Viking Solar Conjunctions, lead to the following inferences: (1) there has been a significant change in the spectral index from 1976 to 1978; (2) there is continuing evidence that favors a slight (positive) correlation between the spectral index and the solar cycle; and (3) there is little or no evidence in support of a radial variation of the spectral index.

Berman, A. L.

Radio sounding of the solar corona during 1995 solar conjunction of the Ulysses spacecraft

The Ulysses spacecraft will pass through superior solar conjunction on March 5 1995, a few days before its perihelion and passage through the ecliptic plane. Dual-frequency S/X-band ranging and Doppler observations will be conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) during a three-week interval centered on the conjunction. The occultation geometry is unique in the annals of interplanetary exploration. As viewed from Earth, the spacecraft will appear to cut diagonally through the southwest quadrant of the solar corona from the South Pole to the equator. The minimum proximate distance to the Sun of the radio ray path will be 21.6 solar radius. The entire latitude scan from pole to equator occurs for a limited range of solar offset distances (is less than 30 solar radius thus facilitating the separation of latitudinal from radial variations in the coronal density and associated parameters of interest.

Bird, M. K.

Ka-band and X-band observations of the solar corona aquired during the Cassini 2002 superior conjunction

A superior solar conjunction occurs when the sun lies near the signal path of a source as observed from the Earth. Interplanetary spacecraft sent to the planets typically encounter one or more solar conjunctions during their mission lifetimes. During these periods, the signals sent to and from the spacecraft encounter degradation due to the intervening charged particles of the solar corona.

propagation Ka-band solar corona solar plasma

Status of the NASA Robotic Mission Conjunction Assessment Effort

This viewgraph presentation discusses NASA's processes and tools used to mitigate threats to NASA's robotic assets. The topics include: 1) Background; 2) Goddard Stakeholders and Mission Support; 3) ESC and TDRS Mission Descriptions; 4) TDRS Conjunction Assessment Process; 5) ESMO Conjunction Assessment Process; 6) Recent Operations Experiences; 7) Statistics Collected for ESC Regime; and 8) Current and Future Analysis Items.

Newman, Lauri Kraft

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

McKinley, David

Effects of Increasing Drag on Conjunction Assessment

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton

Human Spaceflight Conjunction Assessment: Lessons Learned

This viewgraph presentation reviews the process of a human space flight conjunction assessment and lessons learned from the more than twelve years of International Space Station (ISS) operations. Also, the application of these lessons learned to a recent ISS conjunction assessment with object 84180 on July 16, 2009 is also presented.

Smith, Jason T.

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Plakaloic, D.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Navigation

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds

Conjunction Assessment(CA) Support Overview for the EOS Satellites

When a satellite is placed into its desired orbit, to achieve its designed mission objectives, it is imperative to maintain orbit requirements as well as the overall health and safety of the vehicle. One integral part of this process is ensuring that the satellite does not collide with any other vehicle or object in space, which can cause a detrimental consequence to the mission as well as to other satellites within the same orbit regime. To prevent such an occurrence, a thorough collision avoidance process must be followed. This process includes constantly monitoring potential conjunctions and performing collision avoidance maneuvers when necessary, while remaining within the limitations of the mission’s orbit maintenance requirements. This presentation will describe the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua, Aura and Terra satellite’s operational collision a! voidance process. It will highlight the routine conjunction assessment screening and data evaluation process performed by the NASA/GSFC EOS Collision Avoidance Engineers. The presentation will include background information, a summary of operational activities and duties, internal tools used for support, EOS High Interest Event statistics, and potential challenges expected in the future.

Syed Hasan

Multiple Transits during a Single Conjunction: Identifying Transiting Circumbinary Planetary Candidates from TESS

We present results of a study on identifying circumbinary planet candidates that produce multiple transits during one conjunction with eclipsing binary systems. The occurrence of these transits enables us to estimate the candidates’ orbital periods, which is crucial as the periods of the currently known transiting circumbinary planets are significantly longer than the typical observational baseline of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Combined with the derived radii, it also provides valuable information needed for follow-up observations and subsequent confirmation of a large number of circumbinary planet candidates from TESS. Motivated by the discovery of the 1108 day circumbinary planet Kepler-1647, we show the application of this technique to four of Kepler’s circumbinary planets that produce such transits. Our results indicate that in systems where the circumbinary planet is on a low-eccentricity orbit, the estimated planetary orbital period is within <10%–20% of the true value. This estimate is derived from photometric observations spanning less than 5% of the planet’s period, demonstrating the strong capability of the technique. Capitalizing on the current and future eclipsing binaries monitored by NASA’s TESS mission, we estimate that hundreds of circumbinary planet candidates producing multiple transits during one conjunction will be detected in the TESS data. Such a large sample will enable statistical understanding of the population of planets orbiting binary stars and shed new light on their formation and evolution.

Veselin Kostov

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance