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NASA NTRS1997

Alternative Perspectives on Risk

The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of experience and responsibility in the situation. In our presentation we will consider several factors that may influence differences in risk perception, risk tolerance and risk management among the three major categories of participants in the aviation system (pilots, dispatchers, and controllers). Primary factors that may affect risk attitudes (the collective term we will use for the three components of risk) include: expertise or job-specific knowledge or training, personal involvement or vulnerability to consequences, goals, time horizon (imminence of consequences), span of control and type of control, and information or technology support. These will be considered in the context of five different types of risk (physical threat, economic, social, legal, and ethical). A study designed to study differences between pilots and controllers in their perceptions and responses to traffic risks under the present and a user-preferred control situation will be described. Future studies involving dispatchers' risk perceptions regarding various types of risk will be discussed.

Davison, Jeannie↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗

NASA NTRS1998

Paleosols and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen: a critical review

A number of investigators have used chemical profiles of paleosols to reconstruct the evolution of atmospheric oxygen levels during the course of Earth history (Holland, 1984, 1994; Kirkham and Roscoe, 1993; Ohmoto, 1996). Over the past decade Holland and his co-workers have examined reported paleosols from six localities that formed between 2.75 and 0.45 Ga. They have found that the chemical profiles of these paleosols are consistent with a dramatic change in atmospheric PO2 between 2.2 and 2.0 Ga from < or = 0.002 to > or = 0.03 atm (Holland, 1994). Ohmoto (1996) examined chemical data from twelve reported paleosols ranging in age from 2.9 to 1.8 Ga. He concluded that these chemical profiles indicate that atmospheric PO2 has not changed significantly during the past 3.0 Ga. We seek to resolve the conflict between these reconstructions through a broader examination of the paleosol literature, both to determine which reported paleosols can be definitively identified as such and to determine what these definite paleosols tell us about atmospheric evolution. We here review reports describing over 50 proposed paleosols, all but two are older than 1.7 Ga. Our review indicates that 15 of these reported paleosols can be definitively identified as ancient soils. The behavior of iron uring the formation of these 15 paleosols provides both qualitative and semiquantitative information about the evolution of the redox state of the atmosphere. Every definitely identified pre-2.44 Ga paleosol suffered significant Fe loss during weathering. This loss indicates that atmospheric PO2 was always less than about 5 x l0(-4) atm prior to 2.44 Ga. Analysis of the Hokkalampi paleosol (2.44-2.2 Ga) (Marmo, 1992) and the Ville Marie paleosol (2.38-2.215 Ga) (Rainbird, Nesbitt, and Donaldson, 1990) yield ambiguous results regarding atmospheric PO2. Loss of Fe during the weathering of the 2.245 to 2.203 Ga Hekpoort paleosol (Button, 1979) indicates that atmospheric PO2 was less than 8 x 10(-4) atm shortly before 2.2 Ga. The presence of red beds immediately overlying the Hokkalampi, Ville Marie, and Hekpoort paleosols suggests that by about 2.2 Ga there was an unquantified but substantial amount of oxygen in the atmosphere. Iron loss was negligible during formation of the 2.2 to 2.0 Ga Wolhaarkop (Holland and Beukes, 1990) and Drakenstein (Wiggering and Beukes, 1990) paleosols and during formation of all the later paleosols we previewed. Thus, atmospheric PO2 probably has been > or = 0.03 atm since sometime between 2.2 and 2.0 Ga.

Review, Academic↗