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DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network

Traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs(BNNs) could help measure the confidence level by using distributions in NNs modeling. Besides, knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be properly incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized BNN(PR-BNN) model by incorporating soft and hard constraints as a posterior regularization term. We also propose an augmented Lagrangian method and stochastic optimization algorithm for efficient updating via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulations and case studies for solar PV plants have shown the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Women as a force multiplier for bringing nuclear forensic capabilities to the international stage

In 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Administration’s (DOE/NNSA) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN) Program initiated a new nuclear forensics outreach effort under its Confidence Building Measures Program. Little did they know that the timing could not have been better. This article focuses on the early years (2009-2015) of the NNSA’s international nuclear forensics outreach, specifically the efforts and experiences of the women who helped establish this program, building it from a fledgling bilateral effort into an enduring technical capacity provider engaging with dozens of countries and multilateral organizations. At the onset of the program, nuclear forensics was an emerging priority within the U.S. Government and receiving increased focus from international organizations through high-level diplomatic efforts such as the Nuclear Security Summit and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Additionally, working-level initiatives were gaining traction through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group. Over the next six years, a small team comprised of a uniquely large number of women NNSA federal, contract, and national laboratory staff served as key leaders engaging with the international community to strengthen global technical nuclear forensics capacity and best practices. The program continues today under the Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Program as Investigation Support. The experiences shared here detail a unique time period when the new technical discipline of nuclear forensics was beginning to mature and gain international traction. The authors have made every effort to remember history correctly and be as inclusive as possible. A wealth of training, guidance, and exercises documentation was developed in the 2009-2015 timeframe, much of which still serves as the foundation for today’s even more extensive program and community of dedicated technical and diplomatic practitioners.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Particle Vertical Mixing and Horizontal Conveyance Within an Ambient Temperature Fluidized Bed

Previous studies have shown the advantages of particle-to-sCO2 fluidized bed (FB) heat exchangers, which include high heat transfer coefficients, low material cost, and the ability to horizontally convey solid particles. This paper outlines the design and testing of a compact cold flow FB test apparatus to characterize horizontal conveyance through convolutions within a 100 kWth FB heat exchanger design. Horizontal conveyance is an advantage in FBs because it enables more compact designs for heat exchangers. Two mass flow rates, 0.5 & 1 kg/s, at the inlet & outlet of the FB. To determine consistency of the flow rates, Student’s t-tests were used to assess whether the inlet & outlet values were statistically similar. The mass flow rate exiting the bed was statistically similar to the flow rate entering the bed for both cases, but each case featured a wider range and standard deviation. The range and standard deviation of the 1 kg/s flow rate was 0.69-1.23 kg/s and 0.12 kg/s respectively, and the 0.5 kg/s test featured a range and standard deviation of 0.37-0.73 kg/s and 0.09 kg/s, respectively. These measurements provide confidence that large-scale designs can successfully horizontally convey particles at ````~1.5x minimum fluidization velocity (Umf) without significant variation in flow rate. A method to characterize the degree of particle vertical mixing and bubble frequency within the FB is also introduced. By using a high-resolution camera together with particle velocimetry, particle motion in the X and Y directions can be estimated to assess bed mixing and bubble frequency.

Khalaf, Jawad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Women as a Force Multiplier for Bringing Nuclear Forensic Capabilities to the International Stage

In 2009, the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Program initiated a new nuclear forensics outreach effort under its Confidence Building Measures Program. Little did they know that the timing could not have been better. This article focuses on the early years (2009–2015) of the NNSA’s international nuclear forensics outreach, specifically the efforts and experiences of the women who helped establish this program, building it from a fledgling, bilateral effort into an enduring technical capacity provider engaging with dozens of countries and multilateral organizations. At the onset of the program, nuclear forensics was an emerging priority within the US Government and receiving increased focus from international organizations through high-level diplomatic efforts such as the Nuclear Security Summit and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Additionally, working-level initiatives were gaining traction through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group. Over the next 6 years, a small team comprising a uniquely large number of women NNSA federal, contract, and national laboratory staff served as key leaders engaging with the international community to strengthen global technical nuclear forensics capacity and best practices. The program continues today under the Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Program as Investigation Support. The experiences shared here detail a unique time period when the new technical discipline of nuclear forensics was beginning to mature and gain international traction. The authors have made every effort to remember history correctly and be as inclusive as possible. A wealth of training, guidance, and exercise documentation was developed in the 2009–2015 time frame, much of which still serves as the foundation for today’s even more extensive program and community of dedicated technical and diplomatic practitioners.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS1977

F-8 DFBW sensor failure identification using analytic redundancy

The structure of a sensor failure detection and identification system designed for the NASA F-8 DFBW aircraft is outlined. The system is for use in a dual-redundant environment, and it takes maximal advantage of all functional relationships among the sensed variables. The identification logic uses the quality sequential probability ratio, which provides a useful on-line measure of confidence in the various forms of analytic redundancy. Preliminary simulation results indicate good behavior of the analytic decision statistic, based on the sequential probability ratio test.

Deckert, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Accuracy and performance of LACIE crop development models

Of the three principal phenological crop calendar models evaluated for LACIE, Robertson's triquadratic model which predicts the rate of progression of wheat through its biological development, was selected. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and day length are the input variables, and the principal output is a daily increment of development through six physiological growth stages. Because wheat corresponds differently to the environment during each growth stage, five different equations are required. The estimated and observed crop development data were compared in order to establish a measure of confidence in the model and to identify consistent discrepancies that would adversely affect LACIE operation. Although the model provided reliable estimates for various wheat growing regions of the world, it was found that there are still areas in need of further model improvement or development.

Woolley, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Can binary stars test solar models?

The position in the H-R diagram of the approximately solar-mass component of the Hyades eclipsing binary, HD 27130, is compared with the predictions of stellar structure theory. The stellar models are calibrated by matching a model with the solar heavy element composition and age to the solar radius and luminosity. The comparison to the Hyades binary then is a test of the prediction that the initial solar luminosity was only about 0.7 times the present solar luminosity. The agreement is satisfactory, lending a measure of confidence to the solar model employed, provided that the initial helium abundance of the Hyades stars is not greater than that of the sun and is not less by more than about 0.03 in Y. Unless the model is grossly incorrect, the inference of Stromgren, Olsen, and Gustafsson (1982) from the 'Hyades anomaly' in intermediate-band photometry that Y(Hyades) is less than Y(solar) by 0.1 or 0.15 is rejected by the observed properties of HD 27130.

Popper, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

AdaNET prototype library administration manual

The functions of the AdaNET Prototype Library of Reusable Software Parts is described. Adopted from the Navy Research Laboratory's Reusability Guidebook (V.5.0), this is a working document, customized for use the the AdaNET Project. Within this document, the term part is used to denote the smallest unit controlled by a library and retrievable from it. A part may have several constituents, which may not be individually tracked. Presented are the types of parts which may be stored in the library and the relationships among those parts; a concept of trust indicators which provide measures of confidence that a user of a previously developed part may reasonably apply to a part for a new application; search and retrieval, configuration management, and communications among those who interact with the AdaNET Prototype Library; and the AdaNET Prototype, described from the perspective of its three major users: the part reuser and retriever, the part submitter, and the librarian and/or administrator.

Hanley, Lionel↗

NASA NTRS1990

The application of CFD to rotary wing flow problems

Rotorcraft aerodynamics is especially rich in unsolved problems, and for this reason the need for independent computational and experimental studies is great. Three-dimensional unsteady, nonlinear potential methods are becoming fast enough to enable their use in parametric design studies. At present, combined CAMRAD/FPR analyses for a complete trimmed rotor soltution can be performed in about an hour on a CRAY Y-MP (or ten minutes, with multiple processors). These computational speeds indicate that in the near future many of the large CFD problems will no longer require a supercomputer. The ability to convect circulation is routine for integral methods, but only recently was it discovered how to do the same with differential methods. It is clear that the differential CFD rotor analyses are poised to enter the engineering workplace. Integral methods already constitute a mainstay. Ultimately, it is the users who will integrate CFD into the entire engineering process and provide a new measure of confidence in design and analysis. It should be recognized that the above classes of analyses do not include several major limiting phenomena which will continue to require empirical treatment because of computational time constraints and limited physical understanding. Such empirical treatment should be included, however, into the developing CFD, engineering level analyses. It is likely that properly constructed flow models containing corrections from physical testing will be able to fill in unavoidable gaps in the experimental data base, both for basic studies and for specific configuration testing. For these kinds of applications, computational cost is not an issue. Finally, it should be recognized that although rotorcraft are probably the most complex of aircraft, the rotorcraft engineering community is very small compared to the fixed-wing community. Likewise, rotorcraft CFD resources can never achieve fixed-wing proportions and must be used wisely. Therefore the fixed-wing work must be gleaned for many of the basic methods.

Caradonna, F. X.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Description of the COMRADE experiment

The COMRADE experiment is designed to return minimally degraded particles to earth along with complete in situ information concerning mass, velocity, and trajectory of encountered particles. The objectives of the program are very diverse. A set of flight-tested active detectors will be combined in an array to identify some of the physical properties of an incident grain, e.g., velocity vector, momentum, and mass. The use of passive detectors gives access to the chemical and isotopical properties of the grains in the micrometer size range. We are concerned simultaneously with a destructive capture, using metallic collectors, and a nondestructive capture, using a new low-density target in which the impacting grains stop, practically intact. The primary objectives for this mission are (1) to identify the particle remnants of the micrometer-sized grains having impacted on purposely designed metallic collectors, for complete and detailed chemical, isotopic, and organic analysis, thereby determining grain composition as well as the existence of organic and inorganic molecules, to be related with the possible cometary origin of the grains showing an extraterrestrial signature; (2) to return captured intact particles to earth for complete and detailed chemical, isotopic, spectral, mineralogical, and organic analysis, thereby determining grain composition as well as the existence of organic and inorganic molecules; and (3) to capture micrometer/submicrometer dust grains in a manner that ensures minimal particle degradation and guarantees state-of-the-art confidence in measurement of the in situ particle parameters including trajectory, velocity vector, mass, and flux distributions.

Borg, Janet↗

NASA NTRS1994

ASCA detection of iron line emission from the distant galaxy cluster Abell 370

ASCA observations of the gravitational lens and Butcher-Oemler cluster Abell 370 (z = 0.37) give kT = 8.8 +/- 0.8 keV and A = 0.5 +/- 0.1 cosmic. If the gas were isothermal the implied cluster mass would be M(sub vir) = (1.5 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 15) solar masses, a value consistent with the optically-determined virial mass. We detect iron K line emission with high confidence. This measurement increases, by a large factor, the lookback time at which the presence of iron in the intracluster medium has been established. The iron abundance is marginally higher than that of low-redshift clusters of similar temperature, so our results are consistent with models in which all enrichment occurs before the epoch corresponding to z = 0.37.

Bautz, Marshall W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Extrapolation of Elementary Sequences

We study sequence extrapolation as a stream-learning problem. Input examples are a stream of data elements of the same type (integers, strings, etc.), and the problem is to construct a hypothesis that both explains the observed sequence of examples and extrapolates the rest of the stream. A primary objective -- and one that distinguishes this work from previous extrapolation algorithms -- is that the same algorithm be able to extrapolate sequences over a variety of different types, including integers, strings, and trees. We define a generous family of constructive data types, and define as our learning bias a stream language called elementary stream descriptions. We then give an algorithm that extrapolates elementary descriptions over constructive datatypes and prove that it learns correctly. For freely-generated types, we prove a polynomial time bound on descriptions of bounded complexity. An especially interesting feature of this work is the ability to provide quantitative measures of confidence in competing hypotheses, using a Bayesian model of prediction.

Laird, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of the Air Quality Monitor's Performance on the International Space Station

The Air Quality Monitor (AQM) was flown to the International Space Station (ISS) as an experiment to evaluate its potential to replace the aging Volatile Organic Analyzer (VOA), which ceased operations in August 2009. The AQM (Figure 1) is a small gas chromatography/differential mobility spectrometer (GC/DMS) manufactured by Sionex. Data was presented at last year s ISIMS conference that detailed the preparation of the AQM for flight, including instrument calibration. Furthermore, initial AQM data was compared to VOA results from simultaneous runs of the two instruments. Although comparison with VOA data provided a measure of confidence in the AQM performance, it is the comparison with results from simultaneously acquired air samples (grab sample containers-GSCs) that will define the success (or failure) of the AQM performance. This paper will update the progress in the AQM investigation by comparing AQM data to results from the analyses of GSC samples, returned from ISS. Additionally, a couple of example will illustrate the AQM s ability to detect disruptions in the spacecraft s air quality. Discussion will also focus upon a few unexpected issues that have arisen and how these will be a addressed in the final operational unit now being built.

Limero, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2018

Turbulent Aeroheating Measurements on a 7-deg Half-Angle Sphere-Cone in a High-Enthalpy CO2 Expansion Tunnel

A database of heating and pressure measurements on a 7-deg half-angle cone in a highenthalpy expansion tunnel in CO2 has been generated to support development and validation of computational models to be employed in the design of future Mars missions. Laminar, transitional, and turbulent simulations were performed at the test conditions for comparisons with the data. Close agreement was obtained for both fully-laminar and fully turbulent conditions. For the remaining transitional/turbulent conditions, agreement to within, or slightly more than, the estimated experimental uncertainty was demonstrated. The influence of transition intermittency and transition length models on predicted heating levels was demonstrated, as were differences in turbulent heating predictions generated using various algebraic, one-equation, and two-equation turbulence models. These comparisons provide some measure of confidence in turbulent simulation capabilities; however, because the data were not obtained on a relevant entry vehicle geometry, it is not possible to fully quantify computational uncertainties for the definition of Mars mission aerothermodynamic environments at this time

Brian R Hollis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of Integrated Load Distributions from Resampled Computational Data

Principal component analysis (PCA) has been the center of many surrogate models used to characterize fluid flows in recent years. However, little work has been done to character- ize the uncertainty in the PCA transform itself and its effect on derived surrogate models. To explore the uncertainty, a typical interpolated surrogate model is constructed for a represen- tative aerodynamic body from computational data. The computational data is then resampled to explore the robustness of the PCA transformation. The variations of the model predictions during this resampling are analyzed to get a measure of confidence in the PCA transformation, which is then applied to the interpolated surrogate model to get uncertainty on integrated force predictions. An initial test case has been explored with promising results.

Principal Component Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of Integrated Load Distributions from Resampled Computational Data

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗