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NASA NTRS1978

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Performance characteristics of the electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde

A large number of electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes were calibrated in relation to a UV photometric absorption ozone instrument prior to using the ozonesondes in atmospheric soundings. The two methods of measuring ozone were in reasonable agreement on the average, but there was considerable variation from one ozonesonde to another. Averaging the individual linear regressions gives an ECC ozone concentration equal to 0 + or - 8 nbar plus (0.96 + or - 0.10) times the concentration determined with the UV instrument, where uncertainties represent 90% confidence limits. Applying individual calibration corrections to atmospheric sounding data reduced the mean difference between Dobson spectrophotometric measurements of total ozone overburdens and corresponding values obtained from ozonesonde data from -8.5 + or - 8.2 to -1.4 + or - 7.3% for a series of measurements carried out in 1977. Corresponding uncorrected and corrected differences averaged 3.2 + or - 9.7 and 1.9 + or - 10.6%, respectively, for soundings carried out in 1976.

Torres, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Submilliarcsecond astrometry via VLBI. I - Relative position of the radio sources 3C 345 and NRAO 512

The relative position and relative proper motion of the radio sources 3C 345 and NRAO 512 are estimated from four sets of VLBI observations spread out over the period from October 1971 to May 1974. The use of phase-connection techniques yields the separation, in 1950.0 coordinates, of the centers of brightness of the compact components of the two sources. An upper bound of 0.0005 arcsec/yr is placed on the relative proper motion (70% estimated confidence limits). Bounds that can be placed on the distances to the two sources are considered, prospects for improvement in the determination of relative position and proper motion of these sources are discussed, and other possible applications of the basic technique are described.

Shapiro, I. I.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of long-term ionizing radiation effects in bipolar transistors

The ionizing radiation effects of electrons on bipolar transistors have been analyzed using the data base from the Voyager project. The data were subjected to statistical analysis, leading to a quantitative characterization of the product and to data on confidence limits which will be useful for circuit design purposes. These newly-developed methods may form the basis for a radiation hardness assurance system. In addition, an attempt was made to identify the causes of the large variations in the sensitivity observed on different product lines. This included a limited construction analysis and a determination of significant design and processes variables, as well as suggested remedies for improving the tolerance of the devices to radiation.

Stanley, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Evaluating LANDSAT wildland classification accuracies

Procedures to evaluate the accuracy of LANDSAT derived wildland cover classifications are described. The evaluation procedures include: (1) implementing a stratified random sample for obtaining unbiased verification data; (2) performing area by area comparisons between verification and LANDSAT data for both heterogeneous and homogeneous fields; (3) providing overall and individual classification accuracies with confidence limits; (4) displaying results within contingency tables for analysis of confusion between classes; and (5) quantifying the amount of information (bits/square kilometer) conveyed in the LANDSAT classification.

Toll, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A planetary nebula with high oxygen abundance in the galactic bulge

Extensive photoelectric spectra of the planetary nebula H1-55 in the galactic bulge are obtained, and indicate that the object is overabundant in oxygen and nitrogen. Temperature and density are estimated, and chi-square tests are used to place confidence limits on the result. The logarithmic oxygen abundance is found to be 9.50, and the abundance of other heavy elements are also enhanced, such as N = 8.87, S = 7.4, and Ar = 7.4. Helium, sulfur, and argon abundances are affected by uncertainties in the corrections for unobserved ions, which remains consistent with the exceptionally low electron temperature of less than 5600 K. Results agree with the usual models of planetary nebula formation; and therefore, if H1-55 is formed like most planetary nebulae, there must be some very metal-rich stars in the galactic bulge.

Price, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Software reliability: A comparison of results obtained from established software reliability models

Two models of the software error detection process are compared, the Jelinski-Moranda model and a Bayes inference model. Simulation techniques are used to generate software related system failure data which is analyzed by both models. Point estimates and confidence limits are compared. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be considerable for reasonable samples sizes and should be considered in any application of these techniques. The Jelinski-Moranda model is sensitive to the failure of data to follow internal assumptions of the model, often not providing any point estimates, a factor which may limit its usefulness in many real world situations. The Bayes model is shown to respond to the introduction of additional errors in the software correction process, a condition where error counting models such as the Jelinski-Moranda generally fail to converge.

Horn, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Design of control systems with uncertain parameters

A design method for control systems with uncertain parameters is presented. The method utilizes a generalized sensitivity approach which separates the parameter space into regions which produce a system response that satisfies given design criteria and regions which do not. Nonparametric statistics and confidence limits for the binomial distribution are used to determine degree of parameter sensitivity and to locate regions in the parameter space which maximize the probability of producing a desirable system response. In an example it is shown that a given parameter may have to be known to a lesser degree of uncertainty to be able to specify a satisfactory design.

Auslander, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Magnetic fields and charged particles around major planets and their satellites

It is noted that whereas Jupiter and Saturn have magnetospheres whose large-scale structure can be understood by analogy with earth, the ways in which the magnetospheres differ are of great interest. At earth, large-scale processes are dominated by convective flows of plasma driven by the solar wind. At Jupiter, centrifugal effects that are driven by planetary rotation are critical. Magnetic particle sources include not only the ionosphere and solar wind (as at earth) but also satellites and rings. The internal planetary magnetic moments controlling the scale of the magnetosphere differ by orders of magnitude between Jupiter and earth. It is pointed out that where the magnetic moments have been modeled from spacecraft data, the restricted spatial sampling has biased the results and limited confidence in details of the models. Voyager data suggest that Io may itself be magnetized and surrounded by an entirely unfamiliar type of magnetosphere.

Kivelson, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A simulation-based approach to the design of control systems with uncertain parameters

Auslander, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Masses of neutron stars in X-ray binary systems

Methods and assumptions used in determining masses of neutron stars in binary X-ray pulsar systems are discussed. The determination of the neutron star masses requires a knowledge of the orbital elements of the systems, which can be measured by tracking the pulse arrival times over a suitably long time interval. A method to estimate orbital inclination angle when the source exhibits X-ray eclipses is presented, in which the photospheric radius of the companion star in units of the orbital separation can be simply related by geometry to the inclination angle and eclipse angle. Probability distributions for 4 neutron star masses are presented, which have a 95% confidence limit.

Kelley, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflecometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Bell, R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space Shuttle payload bay acoustics prediction study. Volume 3A: Addendum to computer users' manual

Since the publication of the Computer User's Manual for Payload Acoustics Environment for Shuttle (PACES), the analytical model was validated by means of measured data from the first three shuttle lift-offs. During the validation process, new information became available and five changes were made to the input data and the computer program. Three changes affect the user. They are: a revision to the recommended exterior sound pressure levels, a revision to the recommended payload bay acoustic absorption coefficients, and a revision to the vertical station datum for the payload bay. The two other changes do not involve the user. The changes are associated with the output of confidence limits for the predicted space-average sound pressure levels in the payload bay, and a modification to the analytical representation of the payload bay door. The changes are discussed briefly in this Addendum to the Computer User's Manual.

Wilby, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A complete sample of quasars at B = 19.80

A quasar candidate spectroscopic UV-excess survey with B less than 19.80 has yielded 35 quasars in the 1.75 sq deg region studied. The X-ray data for the 35 quasars are used to show that quasars with B lower than 19.80 and z lower than 2.2 constitute 24 + 10, -8 percent of the observed X-ray background at 2 keV. This sample is combined with one containing 22 quasars with B values lower than 18.25, and it is noted that fits of evolution and luminosity functions are substantially similar to previous results, although the confidence limits for the model parameters are reduced by a factor of 2. Pure luminosity evolution models are found to produce very good fits to the observed N(less than B) data, and are used to estimate the overall contribution of quasars to the X-ray background.

Marshall, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Measurement Requirements for the Detection of Ozone Trends

The number of measurements and period of collection in order to detect a trend in the vertical distribution of ozone was studied. Specific issues considered include the impact of: (1) short term ozone variability over the measurement site, and (2) the precision of the measuring instrument on the ability to detect trends to a given confidence limit.

Frederick, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear inversion

Powerful methods are now available for solving linear parametric inverse problems. However, many inverse problems which arise in geohysics are nonlinear. Fortunately, it is possible to treat most of these with the air of linear perturbation theory and liner inversion. But a convenient method is needed for assessing the importance of nonlinearity in these quasi-linear problems. The present paper provides such a method. Matsu'ura and Jackson (1984) have presented a simple algorithm for evaluating the asymptotic covariance matrix fo estimation errors. In the present investigation, aspects of linear inversion are discussed, taking into account linear parametric inverse problems, nonuniqueness, prior information, confidence limits, conditional and marginal statistics, the relative importance of the prior and observational data, and standardized variables. Attention is also given to nonlinear inversion, and the application of the considered approaches to a number of examples.

Jackson, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The Rapid-Sampling Vertical Profiler - An evaluation

Evaluation of the Rapid-Sampling Vertical Profiler, which was developed for sampling the hydrophysical fields in the upper ocean from a moving vessel, shows that the instrument is useful for near-microscale measurements of temperature and salinity and also for turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements with airfoil probes. A depth of 200 meters is reached from a ship moving at 6 knots. The vertical resolution is 3 cm, the temperature resolution is 0.5 millidegrees, the salinity resolution is 0.6 parts per million, and the sigma-t resolution is 0.0004. (The estimates given for resolution are 99 percent confidence limits on series of 3-cm samples.) The instrument falls with a speed uniform within 20 percent in an orientation within a few degrees of vertical. Vibrations within the dissipation range of turbulence are sufficiently small to permit the measurement of turbulence with airfoil probes in many regions of the ocean.

Caldwell, D. R.↗