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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Limits on the fluctuating part of y-type distortion monopole from Planck and SPT results

We use the published Planck and SPT cluster catalogs [1,2] and recently published y-distortion maps [3] to put strong observational limits on the contribution of the fluctuating part of the y-type distortions to the y-distortion monopole. Our bounds are 5.4× 10{sup −8} < ( y) < 2.2× 10{sup −6}. Our upper bound is a factor of 6.8 stronger than the currently best upper 95% confidence limit from COBE-FIRAS of ( y) <15× 10{sup −6}. In the standard cosmology, large scale structure is the only source of such distortions and our limits therefore constrain the baryonic physics involved in the formation of the large scale structure. Our lower limit, from the detected clusters in the Planck and SPT catalogs, also implies that a Pixie-like experiment should detect the y-distortion monopole at >27-σ. The biggest sources of uncertainty in our upper limit are the monopole offsets between different HFI channel maps that we estimate to be <10{sup −6}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Determination of Rolling-Element Fatigue Life From Computer Generated Bearing Tests

Two types of rolling-element bearings representing radial loaded and thrust loaded bearings were used for this study. Three hundred forty (340) virtual bearing sets totaling 31400 bearings were randomly assembled and tested by Monte Carlo (random) number generation. The Monte Carlo results were compared with endurance data from 51 bearing sets comprising 5321 bearings. A simple algebraic relation was established for the upper and lower L(sub 10) life limits as function of number of bearings failed for any bearing geometry. There is a fifty percent (50 percent) probability that the resultant bearing life will be less than that calculated. The maximum and minimum variation between the bearing resultant life and the calculated life correlate with the 90-percent confidence limits for a Weibull slope of 1.5. The calculated lives for bearings using a load-life exponent p of 4 for ball bearings and 5 for roller bearings correlated with the Monte Carlo generated bearing lives and the bearing data. STLE life factors for bearing steel and processing provide a reasonable accounting for differences between bearing life data and calculated life. Variations in Weibull slope from the Monte Carlo testing and bearing data correlated. There was excellent agreement between percent of individual components failed from Monte Carlo simulation and that predicted.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Binary populations in Milky Way satellite galaxies: Constraints from multi-epoch data in the Carina, Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxies

We introduce a likelihood analysis of multi-epoch stellar line-of-sight velocities to constrain the binary fractions and binary period distributions of dwarf spheroidal galaxies. This method is applied to multi-epoch data from the Magellan/MMFS survey of the Carina, Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dSph galaxies, after applying a model for the measurement errors that accounts for binary orbital motion. We find that the Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dSphs are consistent with having binary populations similar to that of Milky Way field binaries to within 68% confidence limits, whereas the Carina dSph is remarkably deficient in binaries with periods less than ∼10 yr. If Carina is assumed to have a period distribution identical to that of the Milky Way field, its best-fit binary fraction is 0.14{sub −0.05}{sup +0.28}, and is constrained to be less than 0.5 at the 90% confidence level; thus it is unlikely to host a binary population identical to that of the Milky Way field. By contrast, the best-fit binary fraction of the combined sample of all four galaxies is 0.46{sub −0.09}{sup +0.13}, consistent with that of Milky Way field binaries. More generally, we infer probability distributions in binary fraction, mean orbital period, and dispersion of periods for each galaxy in the sample. Looking ahead to future surveys, we show that the allowed parameter space of binary fraction and period distribution parameters in dSphs will be narrowed significantly by a large multi-epoch survey. However, there is a degeneracy between the parameters that is unlikely to be broken unless the measurement error is of order ∼0.1 km s{sup –1} or smaller, presently attainable only by a high-resolution spectrograph.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Supernova progenitors, their variability and the Type IIP Supernova ASASSN-16fq in M66

We identify a pre-explosion counterpart to the nearby Type IIP supernova ASASSN-16fq (SN 2016cok) in archival Hubble Space Telescope data. The source appears to be a blend of several stars that prevents obtaining accurate photometry. However, with reasonable assumptions about the stellar temperature and extinction, the progenitor almost certainly had an initial mass M* ≲ 17 M ⊙ , and was most likely in the mass range of M* = 8–12 M ⊙ . Observations once ASASSN-16fq has faded will have no difficulty accurately determining the properties of the progenitor. In 8 yr of Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) data, no significant progenitor variability is detected to rms limits of roughly 0.03 mag. Of the six nearby supernova (SN) with constraints on the low-level variability, SN 1987A, SN 1993J, SN 2008cn, SN 2011dh, SN 2013ej and ASASSN-16fq, only the slowly fading progenitor of SN 2011dh showed clear evidence of variability. Excluding SN 1987A, the 90 per cent confidence limit implied by these sources on the number of outbursts over the last decade before the SN that last longer than 0.1 yr (full width at half-maximum) and are brighter than M R < -8 mag is approximately N out ≲ 3. Our continuing LBT monitoring programme will steadily improve constraints on pre-SN progenitor variability at amplitudes far lower than achievable by SN surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Sunyaev-Zel'dovich selected galaxy clusters at 148 GHz from three seasons of data

We present a catalog of 68 galaxy clusters, of which 19 are new discoveries, detected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZ) at 148 GHz in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) survey on the celestial equator. With this addition, the ACT collaboration has reported a total of 91 optically confirmed, SZ detected clusters. The 504 square degree survey region includes 270 square degrees of overlap with SDSS Stripe 82, permitting the confirmation of SZ cluster candidates in deep archival optical data. The subsample of 48 clusters within Stripe 82 is estimated to be 90% complete for M{sub 500c} > 4.5 × 10{sup 14}M{sub s}un and redshifts 0.15 < z < 0.8. While a full suite of matched filters is used to detect the clusters, the sample is studied further through a ''Profile Based Amplitude Analysis'' using a statistic derived from a single filter at a fixed θ{sub 500} = 5.'9 angular scale. This new approach incorporates the cluster redshift along with prior information on the cluster pressure profile to fix the relationship between the cluster characteristic size (R{sub 500}) and the integrated Compton parameter (Y{sub 500}). We adopt a one-parameter family of ''Universal Pressure Profiles'' (UPP) with associated scaling laws, derived from X-ray measurements of nearby clusters, as a baseline model. Three additional models of cluster physics are used to investigate a range of scaling relations beyond the UPP prescription. Assuming a concordance cosmology, the UPP scalings are found to be nearly identical to an adiabatic model, while a model incorporating non-thermal pressure better matches dynamical mass measurements and masses from the South Pole Telescope. A high signal to noise ratio subsample of 15 ACT clusters with complete optical follow-up is used to obtain cosmological constraints. We demonstrate, using fixed scaling relations, how the constraints depend on the assumed gas model if only SZ measurements are used, and show that constraints from SZ data are limited by uncertainty in the scaling relation parameters rather than sample size or measurement uncertainty. We next add in seven clusters from the ACT Southern survey, including their dynamical mass measurements, which are based on galaxy velocity dispersions and thus are independent of the gas physics. In combination with WMAP7 these data simultaneously constrain the scaling relation and cosmological parameters, yielding 68% confidence ranges described by σ{sub 8} = 0.829 ± 0.024 and Ω{sub m} = 0.292 ± 0.025.. We consider these results in the context of constraints from CMB and other cluster studies. The constraints arise mainly due to the inclusion of the dynamical mass information and do not require strong priors on the SZ scaling relation parameters. The results include marginalization over a 15% bias in dynamical masses relative to the true halo mass. In an extension to ΛCDM that incorporates non-zero neutrino mass density, we combine our data with WMAP7, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data, and Hubble constant measurements to constrain the sum of the neutrino mass species to be Σ{sub ν}m{sub ν} < 0.29 eV (95% confidence limit)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Unexpectedly Bright Comet C-2012 F6 (Lemmon) Unveiled at Near-Infrared Wavelengths

We acquired near-infrared spectra of the Oort cloud comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) at three different heliocentric distances (R h) during the comet's 2013 perihelion passage, providing a comprehensive measure of the outgassing behavior of parent volatiles and cosmogonic indicators. Our observations were performed pre-perihelion at R h = 1.2 AU with CRIRES (on 2013 February 2 and 4), and post-perihelion at R h = 0.75 AU with CSHELL (on March 31 and April 1) and R h = 1.74 AU with NIRSPEC (on June 20). We detected 10 volatile species (H2O, OH* prompt emission, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, HCN, CO, CH4, NH3, and NH2), and obtained upper limits for two others (C2H2 and HDO). One-dimensional spatial profiles displayed different distributions for some volatiles, confirming either the existence of polar and apolar ices, or of chemically distinct active vents in the nucleus. The ortho-para ratio for water was 3.31 +/- 0.33 (weighted mean of CRIRES and NIRSPEC results), implying a spin temperature >37 K at the 95% confidence limit. Our (3σ) upper limit for HDO corresponds to D/H < 2.45 × 10-3 (i.e., <16 Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, VSMOW). At R h = 1.2 AU (CRIRES), the production rate for water was Q(H2O) = 1.9 +/- 0.1 × 1029 s-1 and its rotational temperature was T rot ~ 69 K. At R h = 0.75 AU (CSHELL), we measured Q(H2O) = 4.6 +/- 0.6 × 1029 s-1 and T rot = 80 K on March 31, and 6.6 +/- 0.9 × 1029 s-1 and T rot = 100 K on April 1. At R h = 1.74 AU (NIRSPEC), we obtained Q(H2O) = 1.1 +/- 0.1 × 1029 s-1 and T rot ~ 50 K. The measured volatile abundance ratios classify comet C/2012 F6 as rather depleted in C2H6 and CH3OH, while HCN, CH4, and CO displayed abundances close to their median values found among comets. H2CO was the only volatile showing a relative enhancement. The relative paucity of C2H6 and CH3OH (with respect to H2O) suggests formation within warm regions of the nebula. However, the normal abundance of HCN and hypervolatiles CH4 and CO, and the enhancement of H2CO, may indicate a possible heterogeneous nucleus of comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon), possibly as a result of radial mixing within the protoplanetary disk

C/2012 F6↗
DOE OSTI2014

The unexpectedly bright comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) unveiled at near-infrared wavelengths

We acquired near-infrared spectra of the Oort cloud comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) at three different heliocentric distances (R {sub h}) during the comet's 2013 perihelion passage, providing a comprehensive measure of the outgassing behavior of parent volatiles and cosmogonic indicators. Our observations were performed pre-perihelion at R {sub h} = 1.2 AU with CRIRES (on 2013 February 2 and 4), and post-perihelion at R {sub h} = 0.75 AU with CSHELL (on March 31 and April 1) and R {sub h} = 1.74 AU with NIRSPEC (on June 20). We detected 10 volatile species (H{sub 2}O, OH* prompt emission, C{sub 2}H{sub 6}, CH{sub 3}OH, H{sub 2}CO, HCN, CO, CH{sub 4}, NH{sub 3}, and NH{sub 2}), and obtained upper limits for two others (C{sub 2}H{sub 2} and HDO). One-dimensional spatial profiles displayed different distributions for some volatiles, confirming either the existence of polar and apolar ices, or of chemically distinct active vents in the nucleus. The ortho-para ratio for water was 3.31 ± 0.33 (weighted mean of CRIRES and NIRSPEC results), implying a spin temperature >37 K at the 95% confidence limit. Our (3σ) upper limit for HDO corresponds to D/H < 2.45 × 10{sup –3} (i.e., <16 Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, VSMOW). At R {sub h} = 1.2 AU (CRIRES), the production rate for water was Q(H{sub 2}O) = 1.9 ± 0.1 × 10{sup 29} s{sup –1} and its rotational temperature was T {sub rot} ∼ 69 K. At R {sub h} = 0.75 AU (CSHELL), we measured Q(H{sub 2}O) = 4.6 ± 0.6 × 10{sup 29} s{sup –1} and T {sub rot} = 80 K on March 31, and 6.6 ± 0.9 × 10{sup 29} s{sup –1} and T {sub rot} = 100 K on April 1. At R {sub h} = 1.74 AU (NIRSPEC), we obtained Q(H{sub 2}O) = 1.1 ± 0.1 × 10{sup 29} s{sup –1} and T {sub rot} ∼ 50 K. The measured volatile abundance ratios classify comet C/2012 F6 as rather depleted in C{sub 2}H{sub 6} and CH{sub 3}OH, while HCN, CH{sub 4}, and CO displayed abundances close to their median values found among comets. H{sub 2}CO was the only volatile showing a relative enhancement. The relative paucity of C{sub 2}H{sub 6} and CH{sub 3}OH (with respect to H{sub 2}O) suggests formation within warm regions of the nebula. However, the normal abundance of HCN and hypervolatiles CH{sub 4} and CO, and the enhancement of H{sub 2}CO, may indicate a possible heterogeneous nucleus of comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon), possibly as a result of radial mixing within the protoplanetary disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Optimal GSTDN/TDRSS bit error rate evaluation using limited sample sizes

Statistical studies of telemetry errors were made on data from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). Examination of frame sync words, as received at the ground station, indicated a wide spread of Bit Error Rates (BER) among stations. A study of the distribution of errors per station pass, however, showed that there was a tendency for the station software to add an even number of spurious errors to the count. A count of wild points in science data, rejecting drop-outs and other system errors, yielded an average random BER of 3.1 x 10 to the -6 with 99% confidence limits of 2.6 and 3.8 x 10 to the -6. The system errors are typically 5 to 100 times more frequent than the truly random errors.

Coffey, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interpretation of the COBE FIRAS CMBR spectrum

The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) spectrum measured by the Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) is indistinguishable from a blackbody, implying stringent limits on energy release in the early universe later than the time t = 1 yr after the big bang. We compare the FIRAS data to previous precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background spectrum and find a reasonable agreement. We discuss the implications of the absolute value of y is less than 2.5 x 10(exp -5) and the absolute value of mu is less than 3.3 x 10(exp -4) 95% confidence limits found by Mather et al. (1994) on many processes occurring after t = 1 yr, such as explosive structure formation, reionization, and dissipation of small-scale density perturbations. We place limits on models with dust plus Population III stars, or evolving populations of IR galaxies, by directly comparing the Mather et al. spectrum to the model predictions.

Wright, E. L.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Analysis of the Tank 6F Final Characterization Samples-2012 (U)

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested by Savannah River Remediation (SRR) to provide sample preparation and analysis of the Tank 6F final characterization samples to determine the residual tank inventory prior to grouting. Fourteen residual Tank 6F solid samples from three areas on the floor of the tank were collected and delivered to SRNL between May and August 2011. These Tank 6F samples were homogenized and combined into three composite samples based on a proportion compositing scheme and the resulting composite samples were analyzed for radiological, chemical and elemental components. Additional measurements performed on the Tank 6F composite samples include bulk density and water leaching of the solids to account for water soluble components. The composite Tank 6F samples were analyzed and the data reported in triplicate. Sufficient quality assurance standards and blanks were utilized to demonstrate adequate characterization of the Tank 6F samples. The main evaluation criteria were target detection limits specified in the technical task request document. While many of the target detection limits were met for the species characterized for Tank 6F some were not met. In a few cases, the relatively high levels of radioactive species of the same element or a chemically similar element precluded the ability to measure some isotopes to low levels. The isotopes whose detection limits were not met in all cases included Sn-126, Sb-126, Sb-126m, Eu-152, Cm-243 and Cf-249. SRNL, in conjunction with the customer, reviewed all of these cases and determined that the impacts of not meeting the target detection limits were acceptable. Based on the analyses of variance (ANOVA) for the inorganic constituents of Tank 6F, all the inorganic constituents displayed heterogeneity. The inorganic results demonstrated consistent differences across the composite samples: lowest concentrations for Composite Sample 1, intermediate-valued concentrations for Composite Sample 2, and highest concentrations for Composite Sample 3. The Hg and Mo results suggest possible measurement outliers. However, the magnitudes of the differences between the Hg 95% upper confidence limit (UCL95) results with and without the outlier and the magnitudes of the differences between the Mo UCL95 results with and without the outlier do not appear to have practical significance. It is recommended to remove the potential measurement outliers. Doing so is conservative in the sense of producing a higher UCL95 for Hg and Mo than if the potential outliers were included in the calculations. In contrast to the inorganic results, most of the radionuclides did not demonstrate heterogeneity among the three Tank 6F composite sample characterization results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of the Tank 6F Final Characterization Samples-2012

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested by Savannah River Remediation (SRR) to provide sample preparation and analysis of the Tank 6F final characterization samples to determine the residual tank inventory prior to grouting. Fourteen residual Tank 6F solid samples from three areas on the floor of the tank were collected and delivered to SRNL between May and August 2011. These Tank 6F samples were homogenized and combined into three composite samples based on a proportion compositing scheme and the resulting composite samples were analyzed for radiological, chemical and elemental components. Additional measurements performed on the Tank 6F composite samples include bulk density and water leaching of the solids to account for water soluble components. The composite Tank 6F samples were analyzed and the data reported in triplicate. Sufficient quality assurance standards and blanks were utilized to demonstrate adequate characterization of the Tank 6F samples. The main evaluation criteria were target detection limits specified in the technical task request document. While many of the target detection limits were met for the species characterized for Tank 6F some were not met. In a few cases, the relatively high levels of radioactive species of the same element or a chemically similar element precluded the ability to measure some isotopes to low levels. The isotopes whose detection limits were not met in all cases included Sn-126, Sb-126, Sb-126m, Eu-152, Cm- 243 and Cf-249. SRNL, in conjunction with the customer, reviewed all of these cases and determined that the impacts of not meeting the target detection limits were acceptable. Based on the analyses of variance (ANOVA) for the inorganic constituents of Tank 6F, all the inorganic constituents displayed heterogeneity. The inorganic results demonstrated consistent differences across the composite samples: lowest concentrations for Composite Sample 1, intermediate-valued concentrations for Composite Sample 2, and highest concentrations for Composite Sample 3. The Hg and Mo results suggest possible measurement outliers. However, the magnitudes of the differences between the Hg 95% upper confidence limit (UCL95) results with and without the outlier and the magnitudes of the differences between the Mo UCL95 results with and without the outlier do not appear to have practical significance. It is recommended to remove the potential measurement outliers. Doing so is conservative in the sense of producing a higher UCL95 for Hg and Mo than if the potential outliers were included in the calculations. In contrast to the inorganic results, most of the radionuclides did not demonstrate heterogeneity among the three Tank 6F composite sample characterization results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

SWIFT J1910.2-0546: A possible black hole binary with a retrograde spin or truncated disk

We present the first results from a long (51 ks) XMM-Newton observation of the Galactic X-ray binary SWIFT J1910.2-0546 in an intermediate state, obtained during its 2012 outburst. A clear, asymmetric iron emission line is observed and physically motivated models are used to fully describe the emission-line profile. Unlike other sources in their intermediate spectral states, the inner accretion disk in SWIFT J1910.2-0546 appears to be truncated, with an inner radius of r {sub in} =9.4{sub −1.3}{sup +1.7} r {sub g} at a 90% confidence limit. Quasi-periodic oscillations are also found at approximately 4.5 and 6 Hz, which correlates well with the break frequency of the underlying broad-band noise. Assuming that the line emission traces the innermost stable circular orbit, as would generally be expected for an intermediate state, the current observation of SWIFT J1910.2-0546 may offer the best evidence for a possible retrograde stellar mass black hole with a spin parameter a < – 0.32cJ/GM{sup 2} (90% confidence). Although this is an intriguing possibility, there are also a number of alternative scenarios which do not require a retrograde spin. For example, the inner accretion disk may be truncated at an unusually high luminosity in this case, potentially suffering frequent evaporation/condensation, or it could instead be persistently evacuated through mass loss in a relativistic jet. Further observations are required to distinguish between these different interpretations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

H0LiCOW VIII. A weak-lensing measurement of the external convergence in the field of the lensed quasar HE 0435–1223

We present a weak gravitational lensing measurement of the external convergence along the line of sight to the quadruply lensed quasar HE 0435–1223. Using deep r-band images from Subaru Suprime Cam, we observe galaxies down to a 3σ limiting magnitude of ~26 mag resulting in a source galaxy density of 14 galaxies per square arcminute after redshift-based cuts. Using an inpainting technique and multiscale entropy filtering algorithm, we find that the region in close proximity to the lens has an estimated external convergence of κ = -0.012$+0.020\atop{-0.013}$ and is hence marginally under-dense. We also rule out the presence of any halo with a mass greater than M vir = 1.6 × 10 14 h -1 M ⊙ (68 percent confidence limit). Our results, consistent with previous studies of this lens, confirm that the intervening mass along the line of sight to HE 0435–1223 does not affect significantly the cosmological results inferred from the time-delay measurements of that specific object

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Constraints on Black Hole Spin in a Sample of Broad Iron Line AGN

We present a uniform X-ray spectral analysis of nine type-1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have been previously found to harbor relativistically broadened iron emission lines. We show that the need for relativistic effects in the spectrum is robust even when one includes continuum "reflection" from the accretion disk. We then proceed to model these relativistic effects in order to constrain the spin of the supermassive black holes in these AGN. Our principal assumption, supported by recent simulations of geometrically-thin accretion disks, is that no iron line emission (or any associated Xray reflection features) can originate from the disk within the innermost stable circular orbit. Under this assumption, which tends to lead to constraints in the form of lower limits on the spin parameter, we obtain non-trivial spin constraints on five AGN. The spin parameters of these sources range from moderate (a approximates 0.6) to high (a > 0.96). Our results allow, for the first time, an observational constraint on the spin distribution function of local supermassive black holes. Parameterizing this as a power-law in dimensionless spin parameter (f(a) varies as absolute value of (a) exp zeta), we present the probability distribution for zeta implied by our results. Our results suggest 90% and 95% confidence limits of zeta > -0.09 and zeta > -0.3 respectively.

Brenneman, Laura W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Intelligent System Development Using a Rough Sets Methodology

The purpose of this research was to examine the potential of the rough sets technique for developing intelligent models of complex systems from limited information. Rough sets a simple but promising technology to extract easily understood rules from data. The rough set methodology has been shown to perform well when used with a large set of exemplars, but its performance with sparse data sets is less certain. The difficulty is that rules will be developed based on just a few examples, each of which might have a large amount of noise associated with them. The question then becomes, what is the probability of a useful rule being developed from such limited information? One nice feature of rough sets is that in unusual situations, the technique can give an answer of 'I don't know'. That is, if a case arises that is different from the cases the rough set rules were developed on, the methodology can recognize this and alert human operators of it. It can also be trained to do this when the desired action is unknown because conflicting examples apply to the same set of inputs. This summer's project was to look at combining rough set theory with statistical theory to develop confidence limits in rules developed by rough sets. Often it is important not to make a certain type of mistake (e.g., false positives or false negatives), so the rules must be biased toward preventing a catastrophic error, rather than giving the most likely course of action. A method to determine the best course of action in the light of such constraints was examined. The resulting technique was tested with files containing electrical power line 'signatures' from the space shuttle and with decompression sickness data.

Anderson, Gray T.↗
DOE OSTI2013

CLASH: THREE STRONGLY LENSED IMAGES OF A CANDIDATE z Almost-Equal-To 11 GALAXY

We present a candidate for the most distant galaxy known to date with a photometric redshift of z = 10.7{sup +0.6} {sub -0.4} (95% confidence limits; with z < 9.5 galaxies of known types ruled out at 7.2{sigma}). This J-dropout Lyman break galaxy, named MACS0647-JD, was discovered as part of the Cluster Lensing and Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). We observe three magnified images of this galaxy due to strong gravitational lensing by the galaxy cluster MACSJ0647.7+7015 at z = 0.591. The images are magnified by factors of {approx}80, 7, and 2, with the brighter two observed at {approx}26th magnitude AB ({approx}0.15 {mu}Jy) in the WFC3/IR F160W filter ({approx}1.4-1.7 {mu}m) where they are detected at {approx}>12{sigma}. All three images are also confidently detected at {approx}>6{sigma} in F140W ({approx}1.2-1.6 {mu}m), dropping out of detection from 15 lower wavelength Hubble Space Telescope filters ({approx}0.2-1.4 {mu}m), and lacking bright detections in Spitzer/IRAC 3.6 {mu}m and 4.5 {mu}m imaging ({approx}3.2-5.0 {mu}m). We rule out a broad range of possible lower redshift interlopers, including some previously published as high-redshift candidates. Our high-redshift conclusion is more conservative than if we had neglected a Bayesian photometric redshift prior. Given CLASH observations of 17 high-mass clusters to date, our discoveries of MACS0647-JD at z {approx} 10.8 and MACS1149-JD at z {approx} 9.6 are consistent with a lensed luminosity function extrapolated from lower redshifts. This would suggest that low-luminosity galaxies could have reionized the universe. However, given the significant uncertainties based on only two galaxies, we cannot yet rule out the sharp drop-off in number counts at z {approx}> 10 suggested by field searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Communicating the Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Heavy Rainfall Using a Weighted Ensemble Approach

Urban flood risks are often determined by the frequency analysis of observed rainfall data, communicated using isohyetal maps showing rainfall totals for a range of durations and recurrence intervals. However, to assess future changes in heavy rainfall, it is necessary to study the future projected rainfall time series. Impacts of climate change are typically assessed using climate projections based on global climate model (GCM) outputs and downscaled to finer temporal and spatial scales. The projected data, however, are not generated in a format that urban planners and engineers can easily use to design for future conditions. This paper presents a method to analyze and express climate data in a format that can be readily used in hydrologic models to assess the effects of future extreme rainfall events. Future conditions’ climate data were analyzed using a weighted ensemble approach, which resulted in projected rainfall frequency estimates and their confidence limits. Two multimodel data sets were selected to illustrate this approach in Cook County, Illinois, which belongs to the Chicago metropolitan area. The first data set included statistical downscaling data based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) data. The weighted ensemble analysis applied to this data set produced results that indicated significant increases in projected heavy rainfall. For example, for CMIP3 Scenario A2, for the late 21st century, the 100-year, 24-h rainfall in the northern parts of the county was 29% larger than the model-generated rainfall for the present time. Finally, for the same time horizon and scenario, the confidence interval based on projected data was 87% wider compared with that of the published source (NOAA Atlas 14), calculated using the past observed data. Also, equal-weight delta-corrected IPCC CMIP5-based dynamical downscaling data were applied to the same region for the mid-21st century, producing increases in heavy rainfall fairly similar to those of CMIP3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗