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At least 73 records · Page 4

Asymmetry in the Rate of Warming and the Phenology of Seasonal Blooms in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem

Predicting the impact of marine ecosystem warming on the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton production is challenging. For example, warming can advance the progression of stratification thereby changing the availability of nutrients to surface phytoplankton, or influence the surface mixed layer depth, thus affecting light availability. Here, we use a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll remote sensing products to characterize the response of the phytoplankton community to increased temperature in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem. The rate of change in SST was higher in the summer than in winter in all ecoregions resulting in little change in the timing and magnitude of the spring thermal transition compared to a significant change in the autumn transition. Along with little phenological shift in spring thermal conditions, there was also no evidence of a change in spring bloom timing and duration. However, we observed a change in autumn bloom timing in the Georges Bank ecoregion, where bloom initiation has shifted from late September to late October between 1998 and 2020—on average 33 d later. Bloom duration in this ecoregion also shortened from ∼7.5 to 5 weeks. The shortened autumn bloom may be caused by later overturn in stratification known to initiate autumn blooms in the region, whereas the timing of light limitation at the end of the bloom remains unchanged. These changes in bloom timing and duration appear to be related to the change in autumn thermal conditions and the significant shift in autumn thermal transition. These results suggest that the spring bloom phenology in this temperate continental shelf ecosystem may be more resilient to thermal climate change effects than blooms occurring in other times of the year.

climate change↗

Prediction of Silicon Content in a Blast Furnace via Machine Learning: A Comprehensive Processing and Modeling Pipeline

Silicon content plays an important role in determining the operational efficiency of blast furnaces (BFs) and their downstream processes in integrated steelmaking; however, existing sampling methods and first-principles models are somewhat limited in their capability and flexibility. Current data-based prediction models primarily rely on a limited set of manually selected furnace parameters. Additionally, different BFs present a diverse set of operating parameters and state variables that are known to directly influence the hot metal’s silicon content, such as fuel injection, blast temperature, and raw material charge composition, among other process variables that have their own impacts. The expansiveness of the parameter set adds complexity to parameter selection and processing. This highlights the need for a comprehensive methodology to integrate and select from all relevant parameters for accurate silicon content prediction. Providing accurate silicon content predictions would enable operators to adjust furnace conditions dynamically, improving safety and reducing economic risk. To address these issues, a two-stage approach is proposed. First, a generalized data processing scheme is proposed to accommodate diverse furnace parameters. Second, a robust modeling pipeline is used to establish a machine learning (ML) model capable of predicting hot metal silicon content with reasonable accuracy. The method employed herein predicted the average Si content of the upcoming furnace cast with an accuracy of 91% among 200 target predictions for a specific furnace provisioned by the XGBoost model. This prediction is achieved using only the past shift’s operating conditions, which should be available in real time. This performance provides a strong baseline for the modeling approach with potential for further improvement through provision of real-time features.

Chemistry↗

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

Comment on Comment on “Anomalous structural recovery in the near glass transition range in a polymer glass: Data revisited in light of temperature variability in vacuum oven‐based experiments”*

Abstract Cangialosi, Alegría, and Colmenero have made a comment on a paper of ours [Polym. Eng. Sci. 2022:1–13], in which we discussed the concern that the enthalpy recovery data reported by Cangialosi and co‐workers [Phys. Rev. Lett. 2013;111(9):095701] for polystyrene aged up to 15 K below glass transition temperature was anomalous and contradicted existing experimental results from the literature over a similar range of aging conditions. Their response shifts the focus away from the raised questions about their experimental results and attempts to invalidate the data that we cited in support of our argument. Here we respond to the comment and add additional analysis that suggests the structural recovery response of glassy materials exhibits smooth behavior over the full range of measurements, up to 7 or 8 logarithmic decades. We do this by referring to the work on the intrinsic isotherm down‐jump and memory responses of poly(vinyl acetate) between 40°C and 15°C over six logarithmic decades by Kovacs [Fortsch. Hochpolym. Fo. 1963;3(1/2):394–508], the small‐strain tensile creep of poly(vinyl chloride) quenched from 90°C to 40°C (approximately 40°C below T g ) over seven logarithmic decades from Struik [Polym Eng. Sci., 1977;17:165–173], and the volume recovery behavior for aging times up to 3 months in a temperature range between 95°C and −50°C by Greiner and Schwarzl [Rheol. Acta. 1984;23(4):378–395]. We also add discussion that an isothermal aging procedure using a vacuum oven is highly vulnerable to temperature errors due to the problem of good temperature control when the heat transfer mechanism is primarily radiative.

Jin, Shuang↗

Metabolic responses to increased temperatures in three semi-aquatic turtle species from the southeastern United States

Physiological maintenance of ectotherms is largely dependent on temperature. Abrupt changes in environmental conditions can cause shifts in energy budgets, with higher temperatures requiring more energy be devoted to maintenance functions, making less energy available for other activities. As a group, freshwater turtles are of conservation concern; thus, it is important to understand their physiological responses to temperature shifts, particularly given current climate change predictions. Here, we quantified metabolic rates (MR) for three species of semi-aquatic turtles that vary in their degree of terrestriality and propensity to aestivate: chicken turtles (Deirochelys reticularia), eastern mud turtles (Kinosternon subrubrum), and eastern musk turtles (Sternotherus odoratus). Metabolic trials were performed using a flow-through respirometer at three environmentally-relevant temperatures: 25°C, 30°C, and 35°C. As expected, MRs of turtles were significantly and positively associated with increases in mass and temperature. Pairwise comparisons revealed that D. reticularia exhibited significantly higher oxygen consumption rates (VO 2 ) relative to K. subrubrum, which had significantly higher VO 2 than S. odoratus. The combination of higher metabolic rates, the tendency to terrestrially aestivate, and declining quantity of high quality thermal habitats may place some semi-aquatic turtles at a disadvantage when considering future climate scenarios. Our findings, when combined with knowledge of other ecological traits, may be a useful tool for predicting relative sensitivities of turtle species to predicted climate change, particularly those species inhabiting seasonal wetlands.

Sternotherus odoratus↗

Quantifying the local adaptive landscape of a nascent bacterial community

Abstract The fitness effects of all possible mutations available to an organism largely shape the dynamics of evolutionary adaptation. Yet, whether and how this adaptive landscape changes over evolutionary times, especially upon ecological diversification and changes in community composition, remains poorly understood. We sought to fill this gap by analyzing a stable community of two closely related ecotypes (“L” and “S”) shortly after they emerged within the E. coli Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE). We engineered genome-wide barcoded transposon libraries to measure the invasion fitness effects of all possible gene knockouts in the coexisting strains as well as their ancestor, for many different, ecologically relevant conditions. We find consistent statistical patterns of fitness effect variation across both genetic background and community composition, despite the idiosyncratic behavior of individual knockouts. Additionally, fitness effects are correlated with evolutionary outcomes for a number of conditions, possibly revealing shifting patterns of adaptation. Together, our results reveal how ecological and epistatic effects combine to shape the adaptive landscape in a nascent ecological community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The advanced evolution of massive stars

The nuclear rates for reactions involving 12 C and 16 O are key to computing the energy release and nucleosynthesis evolution of massive stars during their advanced burning phases. Ultimately, these burning rates shape the stellar structure and evolution and influence the nature of the compact objects produced at the end of the stellar life. We explore the implications of new nuclear reaction rates from both experimental and theoretical studies for 12 C(α, γ) 16 ​O, 12 C+ 12​ C, 12 C+ 16 ​O, and 16 O+ 16 ​O reactions for massive stars. Our goal is to investigate how the chemical structure and nucleosynthesis evolve from the He-exhaustion stage to the O-burning phase and how these processes influence the ultimate stellar fate. We computed rotating and non-rotating models for stars of different masses at solar metallicity. We used the stellar evolution code GENEC, which includes a large network of nuclear reactions and isotopes involved in advanced phases, as well as updated rates for 12 C(α,γ) 16 O. For the three fusion reactions involving 12 C and 16 O, we considered new rates following a data-driven fusion suppression scenario (hereafter HIN(RES)) and new theoretical rates obtained with time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations. The updated 12 C(α, γ) 16 ​O rates mainly impact the chemical structure evolution changing the 12 C/ 16 O ratio at He-exhaustion and have little effect on the CO core mass. This variation in the 12 C/ 16 O ratio is in some cases critical for predicting the final fate of the model, which is very sensitive to 12 C abundance, and in particular the 20 M ⊙ remnant may change from a black hole to a neutron star. The He-burning (C-burning) lifetime is also decreased (increased) by about −2% (+15%). The combined new rates for 12 C+ 12 ​C and 16 O+ 16 ​O fusion reactions according to the HIN(RES) model lead to shorter C- and O-burning lifetimes by ≈ − 10%, and −50%, respectively, and shift the ignition conditions to higher temperatures and densities. In contrast, the theoretical TDHF rates primarily affect C-burning, increasing its duration by about 30% and lowering the ignition temperature. These changes modify the chemical structure of the core, the size and duration of C-burning shells, and hence their compactness. They also impact the central and shell nucleosynthesis (by ±1 dex and by factors of ±2–10, respectively), while 12 C+ 16 ​O reaction rates variations remain the least important.

abundances↗

First Measurement of Z Opacity Sample Evolution near Solar Interior Conditions Using Time-Resolved Spectroscopy

Opacity model differences with Fe opacity measurements at high temperature (T>1⁢8⁢0 eV ) and high electron density (𝑛 𝑒 >3×10 22 cm −3 ) at nearly solar interior conditions have remained unresolved [Bailey et al., Nature 517, 56 (2015) and Nagayama et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 235001 (2019)]. Systematic errors from temporal gradients are one hypothesis for the discrepancy. Past data recorded on x-ray film provided spectral measurements over a time determined by the 2.8-ns backlighter duration. Here, we present the first measurements of opacity sample temporal evolution using novel hCMOS ultrafast x-ray camera technology. The measured conditions, measured backlighter time history, and modeled opacities are used to show that temporal gradients do not resolve the model-data discrepancy. The methods demonstrated provide potential advantages, including opacities at more extreme conditions, spectral line shift measurements, and improved measurements at other facilities.

atomic spectra↗

Autonomous Anomaly Detection for MPC Forecasts of HVAC Systems in Residential Communities

The use of residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) to shift peak demand or provide ancillary services is a potential solution in the presence of older grids and distributed renewables. However, to ensure the efficient use of devices, utilities need to accurately forecast the load and adopt error correction schemes when necessary. While significant theoretical research exists in the area of predictive control of HVAC, little experimental evidence exists. The lack of experimental data in turn causes researchers to be unprepared for unsystematic errors which emerge due to the higher complexity of the data generating process. This study offers an anomaly detection methodology that uses unsupervised machine learning algorithms to detect and isolate these errors with different forecast error ranges. The results of anomaly detection procedure can then be used for error correction and would eventually help develop better predictive controllers. The methodology is tested using real world data from a smart neighborhood that currently operates in Atlanta. GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. Here, in this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO 2 fluxes throughout the 13-year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP, R eco , and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revealing systematic changes in the transcriptome during the transition from exponential growth to stationary phase

ABSTRACT The composition of bacterial transcriptomes is determined by the transcriptional regulatory network (TRN). The TRN regulates the transition from one physiological state to another. Here, we use independent component analysis to monitor the composition of the transcriptome during the transition from the exponential growth phase to the stationary phase. With Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 as a model strain, we trigger the transition using carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur starvation. We find that (i) the transition to the stationary phase accompanies common transcriptome changes, including increased stringent responses and reduced production of cellular building blocks and energy regardless of the limiting element; (ii) condition-specific changes are strongly associated with transcriptional regulators ( e.g. , Crp, NtrC, CysB, Cbl) responsible for metabolizing the limiting element; and (iii) the shortage of each limiting element differentially affects the production of amino acids and extracellular polymers. This study demonstrates how the combination of genome-scale datasets and new data analytics reveals the fundamental characteristics of a key transition in the life cycle of bacteria. IMPORTANCE Nutrient limitations are critical environmental perturbations in bacterial physiology. Despite its importance, a detailed understanding of how bacterial transcriptomes are adjusted has been limited. By utilizing independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose transcriptome data, this study reveals key regulatory events that enable bacteria to adapt to nutrient limitations. The findings not only highlight common responses, such as the stringent response, but also condition-specific regulatory shifts associated with carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur starvation. The insights gained from this work advance our knowledge of bacterial physiology, gene regulation, and metabolic adaptation.

Lim, Hyun Gyu (ORCID:0000000204692388)↗

Techno Economic Analysis for Production of Renewable Natural Gas and Value-Added Chemicals from Forest Biomass Residues (CRADA Final Report)

West Biofuels - in collaboration with the University of California San Diego, the University of California Davis, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), the Colorado School of Mines’ Center for Hydrate Research, Placer County Air Pollution Control District, the Sierra Business Council, and the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas)-will demonstrate an innovative pathway to convert forest biomass to renewable gas (RG). The project, Production of Pipeline Grade Renewable Natural Gas and Value-Added Chemicals from Forest Biomass Residues, will utilize an existing pilot-scale gasification system and data and lessons learned from a lab-scale catalytic reactor design, develop, and demonstrate an integrated pilot-scale RG process with a scaled-up catalytic reactor and hydrate-based gas separation process. This robust and simple process uses a commercial proven gasifier, a commercially available catalyst that can tolerate gas contaminants, and a gas separation process that simplifies the downstream processing. Current testing has shown that the process can yield a large amount of methane rich renewable gas in addition to a mixture of propanol, ethanol and other higher alcohols and the relative amounts can be controlled by shifting the process conditions. This process is novel and groundbreaking because the product mixture of RG and valuable alcohols byproducts makes RG production economically feasible at $\$$12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) or less using forest biomass from high hazard zones.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

How Earth System Models Can Inform Key Dimensions of Marine Food Security in the Alaskan Arctic

The Arctic is home to several groups of Indigenous Peoples, each with distinct ways of interacting with their environment and ways of life. Arctic, Indigenous Peoples’ food sovereignty is tightly linked with food security. Subsistence harvesting activities provide nutritious and culturally vital foods for Alaska Native households and communities. Climate change is causing rapid and more unpredictable shifts in environmental conditions that impact three of the key aspects of food security, availability, stability, and accessibility. While communities monitor the abundance and health of food webs and environments as part of subsistence harvest practices, anticipating major transformations and changes in these systems is challenging. We explored the potential of Earth System Model output in helping anticipate or project physical or ecosystem changes relevant to Alaska Indigenous peoples’ food security needs. Through examples of model products, that provide measures of accessibility and availability of marine resources, we show that modern models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model presented here, can provide estimates of a broad suite of variables relevant to food security. We investigate how Earth System Model output could contribute to exploring questions related to aspects of Arctic food security such as accessibility and availability and highlight present model shortcomings that, if addressed, would move Earth System Models closer to being a useful tool for understanding environmentally driven changes to the availability and accessibility of harvestable food resources. Our example model-derived food security indicators illustrate how Earth System Model output could be combined with relevant, non-model, information sources; These model products are meant only as a starting point and a tool for engaging community members and to present, in an accessible way, the model’s potential utility, or current lack thereof, to rights holders and stakeholders concerned about food security. We are hopeful that with example products in hand, additional model development efforts will have a higher likelihood of success in achieving an iterative discussion with stakeholders regarding feasible and desired products.

Gibson, Georgina A.↗

Glauber’s Salt Composites for HVAC Applications: A Study on the Use of the T-History Method with a Modified Data Evaluation Methodology

Phase change materials (PCMs) can be utilized in buildings for peak load shifting in air conditioning systems, and the use of salt hydrate-based PCMs can reduce the cost of thermal energy storage devices. Glauber’s salt is an economical salt hydrate PCM with a melting point of around 32 °C. However, the desired melting range typically falls between 18 and 22 °C for building air conditioning applications. Although many researchers have characterized Glauber’s salt and its composites with modified melting points, enthalpy–temperature curves for composites of Glauber’s salt and NaCl are unavailable. In this study, we report the melting and solidification enthalpy–temperature curves for two different composites of Glauber’s salt and NaCl with a melting point of 21 °C obtained by the T-history method. Both composites contain NaCl to suppress the melting point, borax to reduce supercooling, and sodium polyacrylate as a thickener to enhance cyclic stability. The first composite with 12 wt.% NaCl demonstrated 139 kJ·kg−1 of latent heat of fusion, and the second composite with 9 wt.% NaCl demonstrated 171 kJ·kg−1. Both the composites have high volumetric energy densities compared to their organic counterparts with similar melting points.

Chemistry↗

Flyover and static tests to study flight velocity effects on jet noise of suppressed and unsuppressed plug nozzle configurations

Two spoke-type suppressor plug nozzles and a basic plug nozzle were tested for noise and thrust performance. The nozzles were mounted on an underwing nacelle on an F-106B aircraft, and tests were made both statically and in flyovers at Mach 0.4 at an altitude of 91 meters (300 ft). The flight and static data were adjusted to common reference conditions so that direct comparisons could be made. The noise characteristics that these nozzles would have on a large multiengine aircraft at a 640-meter (2100-ft) sideline distance are also presented. Flight noise levels for all three nozzles were higher than static at comparable conditions; and a shift in the frequency spectra was seen from static to flight, indicating the presence of a forward velocity effect on the noise characteristics.

Chamberlin, R.↗

Generation of auroral kilometric and Z mode radiation by the cyclotron maser mechanism

The relativistic Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance condition for EM wave interactions with a plasma defines an ellipse in velocity space when the product of the index of refraction and cosine of the wave normal angle is less than or equal to unity, and defines a partial ellipse when the product is greater than unity. It is also noted that waves with frequencies greater than the gyrofrequency can only resonate with particles moving in the same direction along the magnetic field, while waves with lower frequencies than these resonate with particles moving in both directions along the magnetic field. It is found, in the case of auroral kilometric radiation, that both the upgoing and the downgoing electrons are unstable and can give rise to this radiation's growth. The magnitudes of the growth rates for both the upgoing and downgoing auroral kilometric radiation are comparable, and indicate that the path lengths needed to account for the observed intensities of this radiation are of the order of a few hundred km, which is probably too large. Growth rate calculations for the Z mode radiation show that, for wave frequencies just below the gyrofrequency and wave normal angles at or near 90 deg, the electron distribution is unstable and the growth rates are large enough to account for the observed intensities.

Omidi, N.↗

Volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the Toba super-eruption

Model calculations that investigate the possible climatic effects of the Toba volcanic cloud are presented. The increase in atmospheric opacity might have produced a 'volcanic winter', followed by a few years with maximum estimated annual hemispheric surface-temperature decreases of 3-5 C. The eruption occurred during the stage 5a-4 transition of the oxygen isotope record, a time of rapid ice growth and falling sea level. It is suggested that the Toba eruption may have greatly accelerated the shift to glacial conditions that was already under way, by inducing perennial snow cover and increased sea-ice extent at sensitive northern latitudes. As the onset of climate change may have helped to trigger the eruption itself, it is proposed that the Toba event may exemplify a more general climate-volcano feedback mechanism.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Effects of temperature distribution and elastic properties of materials on gas-turbine-disk stresses

Calculations were made to determine the influence of changes in temperature distribution and in elastic material properties on calculated elastic stresses for a typical gas-turbine disk. Severe temperature gradients caused thermal stresses of sufficient magnitude to reduce the operating safety of the disk. Small temperature gradients were found to be desirable because they produced thermal stresses that subtracted from the centrifugal stresses in the region of the rim. The thermal gradients produced a tendency for a severe stress condition to exist near the rim but this stress condition could be shifted away from the region of blade attachment by altering the temperature distribution. The investigation of elastic material properties showed that centrifugal stresses are slightly affected by changes in modulus of elasticity, but that thermal stresses are approximately proportional to modulus of elasticity and to coefficient of thermal expansion.

Holms, Arthur G↗