Overview of Conceptual Models in the Additional Panels Performance Assessment.
Abstract not provided.
Hansen, Clifford↗
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Overview of Conceptual Models in the Additional Panels Performance Assessment.
Abstract not provided.
Hansen, Clifford↗
An Early-Stage Exploration Update on the Grover Point Blind Geothermal System in Dixie Valley, Nevada: Highlights of Geophysics Results and Conceptual Modeling
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Folsom, Matthew↗
Identification of Faults Susceptible to Induced Seismicity (Final Report)
Central to the work documented in this report is the capability of geocellular models to represent the geologic conceptual model updated with fault identification from machine learning and joint inversion modeling of microseismic data measured and recorded as a consequence of CO 2 injection at a field demonstration site: the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). This work required seven unique geocellular models with 100s of simulated variations to gain a very high degree of confidence in the identification of geologic features present that contributed to induced microseismicity at IBDP. All forward modeling: pressure modeling, stress modeling, and seismic modeling used the same geologic conceptual model and representations of that model at different scales. The pressure modeling and poroelastic modeling created “snapshots” of pore pressure and stress field changes at different times during CO 2 injection, in which microseismic events were clustered (in time). These pressure and stress snapshots, within the framework and architecture of the geologic conceptual model via the geocellular model, informed the single fault and fault network models to ascertain the likelihood of fault movement (seismic or aseismic). The outcomes of the pressure, stress, and fault/fault network (seismic) modeling confirmed that the faults in the geologic conceptual model in Task 2 were likely the source of microseismic events measured at IBDP and acted as conduits for pressure to be transmitted from the injection interval into the Precambrian crystalline basement rock. This closely coordinated and integrated unique modeling approach was conducted to prove the viability of our proposed workflow 1) to better resolve crystalline basement faults, 2) detect subseismic faults that could be activated by injection, 3) increase the certainty in fault detection and their susceptibility to release seismic energy, and 4) understand transmission of pressure vertically from the well to the underlying fractured crystalline basement. The proposed methodology was effective in guiding an iterative process of calibrating forward modeling results based on similar geocellular models while honoring the geologic conceptual model (i.e., characterization data and knowledge of regional geology); this led to higher level of certainty in the identification of fault/faults zones to control seismicity and transmission of pressure to the regions of recorded and located injection induced seismicity.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model
A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.
Ayati, M. B.↗
PEM Fuel Cell MODEL for Conceptual Design of Hydrogen eVTOL Aircraft
A model and software for design and analysis of a Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system are developed for hydrogen eVTOL aircraft. Examples are provided of stacks designed for 80 kWe and 500 kWe net electrical power. Examples are provided of eVTOL designed for 250 and 400 lb payload. The trade-offs included stack characteristics, hydrogen storage characteristics, and aircraft payload and range. The objectives were to identify the key technology drivers of a hydrogen rotorcraft, establish technology targets for a viable aircraft, and recommend research to address the fundamental pre-competitive barriers. The current U.S. infrastructure on hydrogen informed the targets and recommendations. The key conclusion is that the advances made in cell electrochemical power density over the last decade might allow a PEMFC system to meet, or even beat, piston engine powered light-utility rotorcraft. The development must focus on the key drivers of a hydrogen eVTOL. The drivers are ultra-light stack cooling and short-term hydrogen storage. A stack system of net electrical power 100−150 kWe with specific power 1.1 kWe/kg including air, cooling, and electrical subsystems, and a tank storage of 15% weight fraction hydrogen are the minimum targets to meet the performance of a modern piston-engine rotorcraft, with a range of 180 nautical miles, payload of 400 lb, and gross weight of about 1400 lb. This is defined as the objective aircraft. If only one target is met, an aircraft of half the range could be produced, with a 30% greater gross take-off weight. This is defined as an intermediate aircraft. Because definitive conclusions are premature without weights and loads data on a flight-worthy stack system, it is recommended that a fuel cell powered hydrogen eVTOL demonstrator be built and flown. The existing hydrogen infrastructure for cars provide ample opportunity to create a pilot program. About 12 metric tons of retail hydrogen are available for cars every day in California, which is less than 0.05% of the yearly hydrogen production in the U.S.. A hypothetical fleet of 100 aircraft, operating 3 flights a day, would increase the demand by 2.25 tons per day and require 140 MWh of renewable electricity for green hydrogen.
PEM↗
Vadose Zone Flow and Transport Parameters Data Package for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis
This report provides a description of the basis for the development and implementation of a conceptual model for vadose zone flow and transport for the Hanford Site composite analysis (CA) groundwater pathway analysis. The parameterization for a numerical model is intimately linked to the conceptual model framework. This report describes the basis for the selection of hydraulic and transport parameters for the hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) identified in the 200 East and 200 West Areas. The following three-step process was used to develop the hydraulic properties and transport parameters for the CA modeling: 1. Breakdown of existing database on hydraulic properties by HSUs 2. Constitutive model parameters for laboratory, core-scale hydraulic properties 3. Upscaling for macroscopic, field-scale flow, and transport parameters This document provides data and information on the following items: A brief description and technical basis for the conceptual model selected to represent vadose zone flow and transport for the CA modeling. Variation in sediment particle size distribution for representative sites in the 200 East and West Areas. A summary of effective (upscaled) moisture retention, and saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity estimates for the HSUs in the 200 East and West Areas. A summary of effective transport parameters, including sediment bulk density and macrodispersivity estimates for various HSUs. The 200 East Area B Complex perched water aquifer hydraulic properties
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The design of two sonic boom wind tunnel models from conceptual aircraft which cruise at Mach numbers of 2.0 and 3.0
A method for designing wind tunnel models of conceptual, low-boom, supersonic cruise aircraft is presented. Also included is a review of the procedures used to design the conceptual low-boom aircraft. In the discussion, problems unique to, and encountered during, the design of both the conceptual aircraft and the wind tunnel models are outlined. The sensitivity of low-boom characteristics in the aircraft design to control the volume and lift equivalent area distributions was emphasized. Solutions to these problems are reported; especially the two which led to the design of the wind tunnel model support stings.
Mack, Robert J.↗
Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model Version 8.3
This model package report documents the groundwater flow component of the Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model), which is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. The objective of this report is to describe the modeling objectives, conceptualization, model implementation, calibration, sensitivity, uncertainty, configuration control, limitations, and future model enhancements of the groundwater flow component of the P2R Model.
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Electric field measurements within a severe thunderstorm anvil
This paper presents the results of electric field measurements made within a severe thunderstorm in central Oklahoma on June 13, 1983. The observations show the electrical structure of a severe storm anvil to be more complex than the simple structure of a positive interior and thin, negative screening layers. Evidence is found of extensive regions of both positive and negative charge in the interior of the anvil, and the thicknesses of screening layers are found to be about an order of magnitude greater than calculated in previous models. A conceptual model for the development of the electrical structure of thunderstorm anvils is proposed in which anvil dynamics plays an important role.
Byrne, G. J.↗
Using Multiple Geophysical Methods to Refine a Stratigraphic Conceptual Site Model at a Nuclear Waste Site
At contaminated sites, there is a critical reliance on conceptual site models of which a key component is the geologic framework model (GFM), which is used to build predictive fate and transport modeling in support of remediation goals. Here, we detail an ongoing study at a nuclear waste site (Hanford Site, Washington, USA) where surface geophysical methods were used to complement existing borehole information and to help site new boreholes to update and refine the GFM. Ground-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), time-domain electromagnetics (TEM), and seismic data was acquired on the Hanford Site’s Central Plateau, where the presence of a hydraulically transmissive subsurface feature, or paleochannel, was suspected but uncertain based on contaminant concentrations at sparsely located boreholes. To assess and compare ERT, TEM, and seismic geophysical datasets, co-located data was acquired in an area where the existing GFM was more certain. Surrounding the suspected paleochannel, ERT and seismic refraction tomography showed similar subsurface structures consistent with a channelized feature. While TEM interpretation was limited in the suspected paleochannel area due to a thick resistive top layer and high electromagnetic noise, TEM showed greater utility in a different area where these factors were less prevalent. Based on the results of quasi-3D ERT inversions, we propose updates to the GFM, including identifying a paleochannel. Further, we evaluate the utility of geophysical methods and examine lessons learned that will be used as a basis for continued characterization efforts to support site management decisions and implementation efforts.
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Data from: "Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics"
This data package was generated to support the manuscript “Towards CONUS-Wide Machine Learning-Augmented Conceptually Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics.” It provides input files, model outputs, plotting data, scripts, notebooks, and documentation used to develop, evaluate, and reproduce Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP)-based hydrologic modeling experiments across 513 selected Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) basins. The files are organized by modeling component and analysis purpose, including rainfall–runoff experiments, snow module experiments, coupled hydrologic-snow experiments, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark results, model skill metrics, initialization and epoch records, cell-state normalization files, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based model comparison files, and data used to generate manuscript figures. Tabular files can be opened using standard spreadsheet software or Python/R data-analysis tools. Python scripts, Jupyter notebooks, and selected MATLAB scripts are included for model execution, postprocessing, plotting, and statistical analysis. Quality assurance and quality control were conducted through the source-data selection and modeling workflow. Meteorological forcing, streamflow, and static catchment attributes were derived from the CAMELS-US dataset, and snow water equivalent data were derived from the University of Arizona (UA) Snow Water Equivalent dataset. Selected basins and time periods were screened during the associated research workflow to avoid missing observations or poor-quality cases. Static geospatial features were processed primarily using Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) workflows. Additional details are provided in the associated manuscript and documentation.
ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting ↗
Vadose Zone Flow and Transport Parameters Data Package for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis and Cumulative Impact Evaluation
This report provides a description of the basis for the development and implementation of a conceptual model for vadose zone flow and transport for the composite analysis (CA) groundwater pathway analysis and the cumulative impact evaluation (CIE). The parameterization for a numerical model is intimately linked to the conceptual model framework. The report describes the basis for the selection of hydraulic and transport parameters for the hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) identified in the 200 East and 200 West Areas. Whenever data are sparse or unavailable, surrogate hydraulic properties are chosen based on samples collected within the 200 Areas and nearby locations that are representative of sediments characteristic of the HSUs identified elsewhere.
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Whose Gas is it anyway? Differentiating the Source of a Large Soil Vapor Plume beneath Two Adjacent Waste Sites - 20487
DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company is currently responsible for conducting groundwater contamination monitoring at several RCRA treatment, storage, and disposal units located on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington State. The Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill treatment, storage, and disposal unit presents a distinct groundwater monitoring problem because of a large multi-contaminant soil vapor plume beneath it that is a likely source of low-level volatile organic compound groundwater contamination. Adjacent to Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill is the Solid Waste Landfill. Volatile organic compounds are inventory components of both the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and the Solid Waste Landfill. Therefore, it is possible that both sites could be contributing to the soil vapor plume. For regulatory purposes, it is important to differentiate which site is the primary contributor of volatile organic compounds to the plume. An approach was developed to identify the primary volatile organic compound source of the soil vapor plume beneath Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. The site conceptual model hypothesis of vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to the dissolved phase in groundwater was tested by a simple mathematical model of vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations at the groundwater/air interface. Once it was shown that vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater was a valid conceptual model for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill, spatial and statistical methods were used to determine the primary site contributing to the majority of volatile organic compounds to the soil vapor plume. Average groundwater chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene concentrations from Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring network wells were plotted on maps of the facilities and immediate vicinities and compared to soil vapor sampling probe locations. Principal component analysis and mixing ratios were used to identify source contributions of each treatment, storage, and disposal unit to the plume. Results of the vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations mathematical model showed that transport phenomena outweigh steady-state equilibria. Estimated vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations were considerably lower than soil vapor measurements. The results indicate that dynamic vadose zone and groundwater factors such as decreased vapor concentrations with depth, vapor dilution from dispersion in the vadose zone, and advective and diffusional volatile organic compound dilution in groundwater result in groundwater volatile organic compound concentrations much less than would be measured under steady-state equilibrium conditions. Site source contribution differentiation by principal component analysis and mixing ratios was inconclusive using actual soil gas data because of the similarity in concentration values in both datasets for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. Similar data populations suggest mixing of the vapor contributions from both sites by dispersion through the soil matrix pore spaces. However, when groundwater volatile organic compound data were compared between the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring networks, Solid Waste Landfill mean concentrations were higher, suggesting more vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater at those locations. Simulated volatile organic compound soil vapor and groundwater datasets created to test the methods developed for this study show that the method can be successful in source differentiation when significantly different datasets are compared. This paper will describe a method of testing a conceptual model for vapor-phase contaminant transport to groundwater and for differentiating site sources of contaminants comprising a mixed-constituent soil vapor plume. (authors)
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The channel-source hypothesis: Empirical evidence for in-channel sourcing of dissolved organic carbon to explain hysteresis in a headwater mountain stream
Catchment hydrologists have long puzzled over the question: How can catchments rapidly generate storm flows and pulses of solutes in response to storm events? Conceptual models viewing catchments as composed of discrete source areas generating flow at unique time scales and with unique chemical characteristics have been used to explain the observed changes in flow and water chemistry. Surprisingly, those conceptual models usually do not treat the stream channel as one of the potential source areas. We propose the channel-source hypothesis in which the stream itself should be considered as a potential source with the same rigour as other contributing areas. We pose this in the spirit of the scientific use of the word: a hypothesis is not a proven idea but rather a provisional supposition serving as the basis for further study. We suggest that the channel should be considered as a potential source for dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Channels store substantial amounts of organic matter, and stream ecologists have long studied stream carbon cycling. From those studies, we know that leaching and decomposition can generate DOC from particulate organic carbon (POC). Further, POC is stored in channel ‘dead-zones’—regions of low flow velocity - that can be activated as flow velocity increases, thus releasing accumulated DOC during storms. All catchments are different; there is no reason to assume that channel sources are always important, in every catchment, in every storm. Thus, the channel-source hypothesis does not replace existing conceptual models. Instead, it adds another potential mechanism that may explain DOC dynamics observed in streams. The channel-source hypothesis has substantial implications for catchment studies examining sources of DOC in stream water or using DOC as a tracer to determine the locations of, and proportional contributions of, different source areas for streamflow generation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Life cycle cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles
This paper documents progress to date by the University of Dayton on the development of a life cycle cost model for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of a life cycle cost model. Cost categories are initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. The focus will be on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the life cycle costing model include continual support and upgrade of the R&M model. The primary result of the completed research will be a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely cost analysis in support of the conceptual design activities. The major objectives of this research are: to obtain and to develop improved methods for estimating manpower, spares, software and hardware costs, facilities costs, and other cost categories as identified by NASA personnel; to construct a life cycle cost model of a space transportation system for budget exercises and performance-cost trade-off analysis during the conceptual and development stages; to continue to support modifications and enhancements to the R&M model; and to continue to assist in the development of a simulation model to provide an integrated view of the operations and support of the proposed system.
Ebeling, Charles↗
Validation of Saharan Dust Layer Characteristics with Lidar Observations
Lidar backscattering profiles available from the LITE data set have been used to estimate the optical depths of the Saharan dust layer over West Africa and E. Atlantic regions, in the context of validating the 3-D conceptual model of the Saharan dust plume proposed by Karyampudi and Carlson. The aerosol extinction profiles and optical depths were retrieved from LITE using the Fernald et al. (1972) method. An extinction-to-backscattering ratio, S(sub a), of 25 was selected for optical depth calculations. The spatial analysis of total column and Saharan dust layer optical depths show higher optical depths over W. Africa that decrease westward over E. Atlantic. The higher optical depths over W. Africa, in general, are associated with heavy dust being raised from the surface in dust source regions. Rapid depletion of these heavy dust particles, perhaps due to sedimentation, appear to decrease the dust loading within the dust layer as the plume leaves the west African continent. Higher optical depths are generally confined to the southern edge of the dust layer, where the middle level jet appears to transport the heavy dust concentrations that tend to mix downward from vertical mixing associated with the strong vertical shears underneath the middle jet. Thus, LITE measurements although, in general, validate the Saharan dust plume conceptual model, show maximum values of optical depths near the southern edge of the dust plume over the E. Atlantic region instead of near the center of the dust plume as described in the conceptual model.
Karyampudi, V. Mohan↗
Benchmark study of a new simplified DFN model for shearing of intersecting fractures and faults
It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al. 46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.
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