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At least 73 records · Page 4

Spatiotemporal Route to Understanding Metal Halide Perovskitoid Crystallization

Here, a spatiotemporal experimental route is reported for the antisolvent vapor diffusion crystal growth of metal halide perovskitoids. A computational analysis combining automated image capture and diffusion modeling enables the determination of the critical concentrations required for nucleation and crystal growth from a single experiment. Five different solvent systems and ten distinct organic ammonium iodide salts were investigated with lead iodide, from which nine previously unreported compounds were discovered. Automated image capture of the mother liquor and antisolvent vials was used to determine changes in solution meniscus positions and detect the nucleation event location. Matching the observations to a numerical solution of Fick's second law diffusion model enables the calculation of reactant, solvent, and antisolvent concentrations at both the time and position of the first stable nucleation and crystal growth. A machine learning model was trained on the resulting data, and it reveals solvent- and amine-specific crystallization tendencies. Solvent systems that interact more weakly with dissolved lead species promote crystallization, while those with stronger interactions can prevent crystallization through increased solubilities. Organic amines that interact more strongly with inorganic components and exhibit greater rigidity are more likely to be incorporated into crystalline products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Soil moisture regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces. Extremes in soil moisture can amplify natural hazards through interactions with diverse Earth system processes. Despite its mechanistic importance, soil moisture remains underrepresented in hazard research and predictive frameworks. Here, in this study, we review our current understanding of the role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards by synthesizing the latest findings from observational and modelling studies. We highlight key soil moisture mechanisms, including atmospheric feedbacks that amplify drought–heatwave–wildfire events, precipitation couplings that promote clustered storms, and threshold responses that drive vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding. Persistent challenges in observational data, model representation and operational implementation have limited the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems. Addressing these gaps through advances in observations, data assimilation, and physics-based and data-driven modelling will enhance hazard prediction and preparedness in a rapidly changing world.

Li, Chuxuan [University of California, Los Angeles↗

Dielectrics Under Extreme Electric Fields: In Situ Studies on Nanoscale Mechanisms (Final Technical Report)

The lack of materials that can function reliably under extreme electric fields is a critical roadblock to achieving higher energy efficiency and extended service lifetime of devices in electricity generation, transmission, and consumption. Materials typically fail at two or three orders of magnitude below their theoretical dielectric breakdown strength. Identifying the origins of premature dielectric breakdown using state-of-the-art characterization tools will, therefore, enable the design and discovery of transformational materials capable of approaching their intrinsic limits. The vast improvement in the resolution power of imaging tools, combined with the recently developed in situ electric biasing technique, has made high resolution observations of dielectric breakdown as it happens possible. The overall goal of the project is to directly image the dynamic processes of defect formation, accumulation, and interaction with preexisting defects (e.g., dislocations, domain walls, and grain boundaries in crystalline dielectric films) under electric fields up to 1,000 MV/m with a temporal resolution better than 5 microseconds. Using the newly acquired, custom-made Hysitron PI95 transmission electron microscopy (TEM) specimen holder, in situ TEM observations of breakdown at the sub nanometer resolution will be made on representative dielectric compounds with progressive complexities: the linear dielectric SiO 2 , CuO, and TiO 2 , the ferroelectric BaTiO 3 nanocrystals and nanocubes. Through direct observation of the breakdown event at high spatial and temporal resolutions, the nanoscale mechanisms for the failure of dielectrics under intense electric fields will be identified. The results of the project will be applied to the design and processing of new dielectric materials with higher efficiency, improved reliability, and a prolonged lifetime. Such new dielectrics are urgently needed for modernizing energy infrastructures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Measurement report: Extreme heat and wildfire emissions enhance volatile organic compounds in a temperate forest

Climate extremes are projected to cause unprecedented deviations in the emission and transformation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which trigger feedback mechanisms that will impact the atmospheric oxidation and formation of aerosols and clouds. However, the response of VOCs to future conditions such as extreme heat and wildfire events is still uncertain. This study explored the modification of the mixing ratio and distribution of several anthropogenic and biogenic VOCs in a temperate oak–hickory–juniper forest as a response to increased temperature and transported biomass burning plumes. A chemical ionization mass spectrometer was deployed on a tower at a height of 32 m in rural central Missouri, United States, for the continuous and in situ measurement of VOCs from June to August of 2023. The maximum observed temperature in the region was 38 °C, and during multiple episodes the temperature remained above 32 °C for several hours. Biogenic VOCs such as isoprene and monoterpene followed closely the temperature daily profile but at varying rates, whereas anthropogenic VOCs were insensitive to elevated temperature. During the measurement period, wildfire emissions were transported to the site and substantially increased the mixing ratios of acetonitrile and benzene, which are produced from burning of biomass. An in-depth analysis of the mass spectra revealed more than 250 minor compounds, such as formamide and methylglyoxal. Extreme heat and presence of wildfire plumes modified the overall volatility, reactivity, O : C, and H : C ratios of the extended list of VOCs. The calculated OH reactivities during extreme temperature condition and transport of biomass burning plumes were 106.37±4.27 and 106.22±5.15 s −1 , respectively, which are substantially higher than background level of 98.78±1.16 s −1 . Multivariate analysis also clustered the compounds into five factors, which highlighted the sources of the unaccounted-for VOCs. Ultimately, results here underscore the effect of extreme heat and wildfire emissions on the overall chemical properties VOC in a temperate forest.

Salvador, Christian Mark [Oak Ridge National Labor↗

Interacting Effects of Watershed and Coastal Processes on the Evolution of Compound Flooding During Hurricane Irene

Abstract In low‐lying estuarine regions, compound flooding (CF) is caused by the co‐occurrence of extreme precipitation, river flooding and storm surge. In recent decades, there has been a rise in the frequency and intensity of pluvial‐coastal CF events in different parts of the U.S. due to the increased frequency of intense precipitation and storm surge events. However, in estuarine and deltaic regions, the CF characteristics depend mainly on the storm tide and river flow interaction. Understanding how the fluvial‐coastal CF may respond to changes to watershed and estuarine characteristics is essential for future CF hazard prediction. This study examined two critical processes: (a) the interplay between antecedent soil moisture conditions and peak river flow, and (b) how the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and river flood distribution alters the CF in complex estuaries. As the study area, we selected the Delaware Bay and River, a shallow and convergent estuary in the US Mid‐Atlantic region—where flood hazards during a CF can become more significant than the surge and river flood processes occurring in isolation. For the focal event for the study, we selected Hurricane Irene (2011) because it reportedly produced the most extreme CF over the past two decades in the same region. Ultimately, our results illustrated that the potential changes to the catchment and bay characteristics from the global temperature increase and SLR could significantly modulate the fluvial‐coastal CF variability. The potential increase in global temperature and rainfall intensity might not always exacerbate the CF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Fusion via Neural Network Entropy Minimization for Target Detection and Multi-Sensor Event Classification

Broadly applicable solutions to multimodal and multisensory fusion problems across domains remain a challenge because effective solutions often require substantive domain knowledge and engineering. The chief questions that arise for data fusion are in when to share information from different data sources, and how to accomplish the integration of information. The solutions explored in this work remain agnostic to input representation and terminal decision fusion approaches by sharing information through the learning objective as a compound objective function. The objective function this work uses assumes a one-to-one learning paradigm within a one-to-many domain which allows the assumption that consistency can be enforced across the one-to-many dimension. The domains and tasks we explore in this work include multi-sensor fusion for seismic event location and multimodal hyperspectral target discrimination. We find that our domain- informed consistency objectives are challenging to implement in stable and successful learning because of intersections between inherent data complexity and practical parameter optimization. While multimodal hyperspectral target discrimination was not enhanced across a range of different experiments by the fusion strategies put forward in this work, seismic event location benefited substantially, but only for label-limited scenarios.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Estimated timescales for wet deposition of organic compounds as a function of Henry's law constants

Atmospheric organic compounds may deposit to Earth's surfaces via dry deposition, driven by concentration gradients, and wet deposition, driven by the scavenging of compounds by precipitation. Their removal by deposition has downstream impacts on concentrations of secondary organic aerosol by removing potential aerosol precursors that would otherwise oxidize to form particulate matter. The impact of deposition processes can consequently be considered as competition between rates of oxidation and deposition, but timescales for deposition are not well constrained. While timescales for dry deposition have been estimated and experimentally validated in the past, understanding of wet deposition of organics is still very limited. In this work, we estimate the wet deposition timescale for gas-phase organic compounds in the atmosphere as a function of Henry's law constants, H, using real-world precipitation frequency and size distributions at five globally-distributed sites. The wet deposition timescale decreases significantly with the increase of H until reaching a stable minimum for compounds with H > 10 5 M per atm. We estimate that the median wet deposition timescale for highly soluble gases is approximately 5 hours during a continuous rain event for all sites. However, median estimated timescales ranged from 80 to 200 hours, depending on location. Timescales are found to depend primarily on the frequency and duration of precipitation events rather than their intensity or size characteristics. Based on these data, we demonstrate that timescales for wet deposition of gases can be estimated at any given location using only basic precipitation information, without detailed or high-precision measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

dynamics of organic-mineral interactions at the metal oxide-solution interface as studied via binding energetics (Final report)

This project focused on addressing longstanding fundamental and experimental uncertainties on how dissolved organic substances (DOS) interact with metal oxide surface under environmentally relevant conditions. By leveraging a custom-built real-time, in-tandem flow adsorption microcalorimetry-UV-Vis/fluorescence spectroscopy platform, we characterized the binding energetics, kinetics and mechanistic pathways driving DOS-metal oxide interactions at temporal resolution on the order of 1-5 seconds. We studied a diverse suite of model organic compounds/substances – including monocarboxylates (e.g. acetate and benzoate), di-carboxylates (oxalate and succinate), amino acids, amino-based nanparticles and natural organic matter – interacting at the mineral-water interface of structurally- and/or chemically distinct metal oxides (including SiO2, boehmite, ferrihydrite, and γ-Al2O3). Our results indicated that DOS-metal oxide interactions are governed by multi-step reaction pathways, often switching between distinct, resolvable enthalpy- and entropy-driven non-electrostatic or electrostatic configurations. To quantify these interactions, we developed and implemented an analytical workflow that integrates peak deconvolution and Monte-Carlo based error propagation to determine site-specific thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for individual binding/debinding events. In addition to resolving apparent first-order rate constants of each event, we were able to quantify associated apparent equilibrium constants as well as free energy, enthalpy and entropy contribution to the activation and subsequent progression of the binding/debinding process across compounds, compound class and metal oxide surfaces. The kinetic-thermodynamic data produced in this study captured how the interplay between oxide surface reactivity and DOS molecular structure jointly drives binding-debinding dynamics. Notably, that at pH below PZC of the oxide surface, neutral species were heavily involved in monocarboxylate binding, while anionic species drove dicarboxylate binding. Also, that among amino acids 1) positional isomers show distinctive binding characteristics to each other while enantiomers show no significant differences in binding characteristics, 2) molecules that bind via outer-sphere complexation show a larger entropic shift between binding and debinding with no impact on oxide surface while 3) inner-sphere interactions increased anion exchange capacity of the oxide surface. The new insights and data from this work has great potential for improving predictive modeling of carbon dynamics and specifically organic-mineral interactions in environmental and industrial systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment

Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.

external hazards↗

A Single Compartment Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Method

The relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) method is a widely-known technique that measures turbulent fluxes of scalar quantities. The REA technique has been used to measure turbulent fluxes of various compounds, such as methane, ethene, propene, butene, isoprene, nitrous oxides, ozone, and others. The REA method requires the accumulation of scalar concentrations in two separate compartments that conditionally sample updrafts and downdraft events. It is demonstrated here that the assumptions behind the conventional or two-compartment REA approach allow for one-compartment sampling, therefore called a one compartment or 1-C-REA approach, thereby expanding its operational utility. The one-compartment sampling method is tested across various land cover types and atmospheric stability conditions, and it is found that the one-compartment REA can provide results comparable to those determined from conventional two-compartment REA. This finding enables rapid expansion and practical utility of REA in studies of surface-atmosphere exchanges, interactions, and feedbacks.

Banerjee, T.↗

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Abstract Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade −1 ), duration (2.1 days decade −1 ) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade −1 ) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade −1 . By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Examining the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Both aerosol direct and indirect effects are affected by the vertical distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, which is further influenced by a range of processes, such as aerosol dynamics, long-range transport, and entrainment. However, many observations of these processes are based on ground measurements, limiting our ability to understand the vertical distribution of aerosols and simulate their impact on clouds and climate. In this work, we examined the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) using data collected from the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign. The vertical profiles of meteorological and aerosol physiochemical properties up to 2500 m above are examined based on the 38 flights conducted during the HI-SCALE campaign. The aerosol properties over the SGP show strong vertical heterogeneity and seasonal variabilities. The aerosol concentrations at the surface are the highest due to strong emissions at ground level. In general, the mode diameter of aerosols during summer (∼ 100 nm) is larger than that during spring (∼ 30 nm), a result of enhanced condensational growth due to enriched volatile organic compounds in summer. The concentration of aerosols below 30 nm in the boundary layer (BL) (e.g., below 1000 m) during spring is higher than that during summer, a result of the stronger new particle formation (NPF) events due to the reduced condensation sink in spring. In the BL, the size of the aerosols gradually increases with altitude due to condensational growth and cloud processing. However, the chemical composition of the aerosols remained similar, with organics and sulfates representing 59.8 ± 2.2 % and 22.7 ± 2.1 %, respectively, of the total mass in the BL. Through the vertical profiles of aerosol properties, we observed NPF events in the upper BL during 7 out of 38 research flights, where the newly formed particles continue to grow as they are mixed down to the surface. There is also an indication that deep convection brings aerosols from the free troposphere (FT) to the surface, where they grow to contribute to the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Overall, the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the SGP is influenced by aerosol dynamics (new particle formation, growth, and cloud processing) and transport processes (mixing in the BL, long-range transport, entrainment, and convective downward transport). Case studies showing the influence of these factors are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural gas odorants: A scoping review of health effects

Organosulfur compounds are intentionally added to natural gas as malodorants with the intent of short-term nasal inhalation to aid in leak detection. Regulatory exposure limits have not been established for all commonly used natural gas odorants, and recent community-level exposure events and growing evidence of indoor natural gas leakage have raised concerns associated with natural gas odorant exposures. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed scientific publications on human exposures and animal toxicological studies of natural gas odorants to assess toxicological profiles, exposure potential, health effects and regulatory guidelines associated with commonly used natural gas odorants. We identified only 22 studies which met inclusion criteria for full review. Overall, there is limited evidence of both transient nonspecific health symptoms and clinically diagnosed causative neurotoxic effects associated with prolonged odorant exposures. Across seven community-level exposure events and two occupational case reports, consistent symptom patterns included: headache, ocular irritation, nose and throat irritation, respiratory complaints such as shortness of breath and asthma attacks, and skin irritation and rash. Of these, respiratory inflammation and asthma exacerbations are the most debilitating, whereas the high prevalence of ocular and dermatologic symptoms suggest a non-inhalation route of exposure. The limited evidence available raises the possibility that organosulfur odorants may pose health risks at exposures much lower than presently understood, though additional dose-response studies are needed to disentangle specific toxicologic effects from nonspecific responses to noxious organosulfur odors. Numerous recommendations are provided including more transparent and prescriptive natural gas odorant use practices.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Elucidation of Structure and Physical Properties of Pyrolytic Sugar Oligomers Derived from Cellulose Depolymerization/Dehydration Reactions: A Density Functional Theory Study

Fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic materials is a promising research area to produce renewable fuels and chemicals. Dehydration is known to be among the most important reaction families during cellulose pyrolysis; water is the most important product. Together with water, dehydration reactions also form a range of poorly known oligomer species of varying molecular sizes, often collected as part of bio-oil water-soluble (WS) fraction. In this work, we used electronic structure calculations to evaluate the relative thermodynamic stabilities of several oligomer species resulting from up to three consecutive dehydration events from cellulose depolymerization intermediates. A library of the thermodynamically favored candidate molecular structures was compiled. Results revealed that most of the water molecules are eliminated from the non-reducing end, forming thermodynamically more stable conjugated compounds. This is consistent with results reported by other researchers in literature where dehydration reactions occur preferably at the non-reducing ends of oligomers. The physical-chemical properties of the proposed structures were estimated using quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs) and quantitative property-property relationships (QPPRs). The anhydro-sugars derived from cellulose are often blamed for coke formation during bio-oil hydrotreatment. Understanding their chemical structure could help to develop rational strategies to mitigate coke formation. Furthermore, the thermo-physical properties reported (boiling point, melting point, Gibb’s free energy of formation, enthalpy of formation, and solubility parameters among others) are also fundamental to conducting first principle engineering calculations to design and analyze new pyrolysis reactors and bio-oil up-grading units.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Compounding effects of Lake and urbanization on summer precipitation in the Greater Chicago area

Here, this study explores the impacts of Lake Michigan and Chicago's urbanization on precipitation patterns over the Greater Chicago Area, using 22 years of observational data and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations focused on an early summer rain event. Observational analysis reveals that urban areas consistently experience more precipitation than the adjacent southern Lake Michigan region throughout the year, particularly before 2015. However, this disparity has narrowed since 2016 due to a more rapid increase in heavy precipitation over the lake compared to urban areas. Specifically, lake precipitation has risen by 25 mm per year, compared to 15 mm per year over urban areas. Additionally, the number of days with precipitation exceeding 5 mm per day has been rising at a rate of 1.34 days per year over the lake and 0.84 days per year over urban areas. Modeling experiments reveal that both urbanization and lake effects, including lake breezes, enhance precipitation over urban areas, primarily through convergence induced by interactions between land and lake breezes. In contrast, these same factors suppress precipitation over the lake. The suppression results from Lake Michigan's stable environment, characterized by cooler surface temperatures, limited evaporation in early summer, and a high-pressure anomaly over the lake driven by urban heating, which creates upward motion over urban areas and downward motion over the lake, further influencing precipitation patterns.

Coastal urban↗