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At least 73 records · Page 4

A two component model for thermal emission from organic grains in Comet Halley

Observations of Comet Halley in the near infrared reveal a triple-peaked emission feature near 3.4 micrometer, characteristic of C-H stretching in hydrocarbons. A variety of plausible cometary materials exhibit these features, including the organic residue of irradiated candidate cometary ices (such as the residue of irradiated methane ice clathrate, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Indeed, any molecule containing -CH3 and -CH2 alkanes will emit at 3.4 micrometer under suitable conditions. Therefore tentative identifications must rest on additional evidence, including a plausible account of the origins of the organic material, a plausible model for the infrared emission of this material, and a demonstration that this conjunction of material and model not only matches the 3 to 4 micrometer spectrum, but also does not yield additional emission features where none is observed. In the case of the residue of irradiated low occupancy methane ice clathrate, it is argued that the lab synthesis of the organic residue well simulates the radiation processing experienced by Comet Halley.

Chyba, Christopher↗

Constraint-based component-modeling for knowledge-based design

The paper describes the application of various advanced programming techniques derived from artificial intelligence research to the development of flexible design tools for conceptual design. Special attention is given to two techniques which appear to be readily applicable to such design tools: the constraint propagation technique and the object-oriented programming. The implementation of these techniques in a prototype computer tool, Rubber Airplane, is described.

Kolb, Mark A.↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model

Geologic carbon storage is one of the promising strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing the emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a systems-level stochastic analysis tool called the open source integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to estimate and manage the risk of containment loss at a geological carbon sequestration site. NRAP-Open-IAM contains several wellbore leakage model components that estimate the fluid leak rate that may occur through compromised legacy wells due to the increase in pressure resulting from CO 2 injection activities. Coupled to a reservoir component model, these components estimate the leakage of CO 2 and/or brine from a storage reservoir to overlying aquifer layers and the atmosphere through legacy wells. This report presents the theoretical framework and quality testing of the multisegmented wellbore reduced-order model. The model allows for segmenting of the legacy wells passing through the overlying stratigraphy into several intervals to simulate a site’s specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. For quality assurance, the analytical model is validated against numerical reservoir flow simulations for single and multiple aquifer(s) models. The results indicate that the model accurately predicts the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well over time. A detailed description of the model helps users to understand the model and provides a basis for future improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Engine Structures Analysis Software: Component Specific Modeling (COSMO)

A component specific modeling software program has been developed for propulsion systems. This expert program is capable of formulating the component geometry as finite element meshes for structural analysis which, in the future, can be spun off as NURB geometry for manufacturing. COSMO currently has geometry recipes for combustors, turbine blades, vanes, and disks. Component geometry recipes for nozzles, inlets, frames, shafts, and ducts are being added. COSMO uses component recipes that work through neutral files with the Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) program which provides the necessary base parameters and loadings. This report contains the users manual for combustors, turbine blades, vanes, and disks.

Mcknight, R. L.↗

GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗

GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation statistics

A two-component rain model has been developed for calculating attenuation statistics. In contrast to most other attenuation prediction models, the two-component model calculates the occurrence probability for volume cells or debris attenuation events. The model performed significantly better than the International Radio Consultative Committee model when used for predictions on earth-satellite paths. It is expected that the model will have applications in modeling the joint statistics required for space diversity system design, the statistics of interference due to rain scatter at attenuating frequencies, and the duration statistics for attenuation events.

Crane, R. K.↗

Field lines and magnetic surfaces in a two-component slab/2D model of interplanetary magnetic fluctuations

A two-component model for the spectrum of interplanetary magnetic fluctuations was proposed on the basis of ISEE observations, and has found an intriguing level of application in other solar wind studies. The model fluctuations consist of a fraction of 'slab' fluctuations, varying only in the direction parallel to the locally uniform mean magnetic field B(0) and a complement of 2D (two-dimensional) fluctuations that vary in the directions transverse to B(0). We have developed an spectral method computational algorithm for computing the magnetic flux surfaces (flux tubes) associated with the composite model, based upon a precise analogy with equations for ideal transport of a passive scalar in planar two dimensional geometry. Visualization of various composite models will be presented, including the 80 percent 2D/ 20 percent slab model with delta B/B(0) approximately equals 1 and a minus 5/3 spectral law, that is thought to approximately represent a snapshot of solar wind turbulence. Characteristically, the visualizations show that flux tubes, even when defined as regular on some plane, shred and disperse rapidly as they are viewed along the parallel direction. This diffusive process, which generalizes the standard picture of field line random walk, will be discussed in detail. Evidently, the traditional picture that flux tubes randomize like strands of spaghetti with a uniform tangle along the axial direction is in need of modification.

Matthaeus, W. H.↗

The Sufficient Component Cause Model Explaining Low-Dose Radiobiology through an Epidemiologic Lens

One of the major challenges in understanding space radiation-induced carcinogenesis is the uncertainty from translating radiobiological research in cellular and animal models to humans, especially at doses below 100 mSv. Biological studies have shown a host of potential outcomes at low doses in animal and cellular models. The existence of non-targeted effects as bystander and abscopal effects is well-documented from clinical research and basic science1,2,3. While some studies have shown increased effects at low doses, others have shown evidence of hormetic bystander effects, where radiation exposure may be beneficial4,5,6. Despite these varied and diverse findings, epidemiologic studies largely support the linear-no threshold (LNT) assumption used by radiation protection guidance7,8. Translational animal-to-human models have predominantly considered ratio values such as the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) that rely on the assumption of LNT rather than implementing specific dose-response shapes in the low-dose region, and translational cell-to-human models are uncommon. The sufficient component cause model presents an opportunity to examine biological findings at low doses from an epidemiological lens9. In this model, exposures “sufficient” to cause an outcome of interest are presented in pie charts, such that when all slices of a pie chart are fulfilled, the outcome will occur. Multiple pie charts may exist for a single outcome, illustrating individual differences9. In 1988,Greenland and Poole adapted the sufficient component cause model to incorporate interaction with other exposures (such as genetics or lifestyle factors)10. They show that a range of biological processes are possible in a population, but that an epidemiologic study will only reveal the mean outcome from the population at large10,11. Using this construct, the multiple outcomes presented in radiobiological models to date can be explained in the context of epidemiologic studies. This presentation aims to demonstrate a causal framework that can integrate radiobiological and epidemiological models to date. It is intended as a conversation starter to spur future research.

C M Milder↗

Component-specific modeling

The ability to accurately structurally analyze engine components to assure that they can survive for their designed lifetime in an increasingly harsh environment is discussed. Under the HOST (HOt Section Technology) program, advanced component-specific modeling methods, with built-in analysis capability, will be developed separately for burner liners, turbine blades and vanes. These modeling methods will make maximum use of, but will not rely solely on, existing analysis methods and techniques, to analyze the three identified components. Nor will the complete structural analysis of a component necessarily be performed as a single analysis. The approach to be taken will develop complete software analysis packages with internal, component-specific, self-adaptive solution strategies. Each package will contain a set of modeling and analysis tools. The selection and order of specific methods and techniques within the set to be applied will depend on the specific-component, the current thermo-mechanical loading, and the current state of the component. All modeling and analysis decisions will be made internally based on developed decision criteria within the solution strategies; minimal user intervention will be required.

Hirschbein, M. S.↗