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At least 73 records · Page 4

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. Crew members operating independently during long duration space exploration missions will require a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to increase autonomy by augmenting their knowledge, skills and abilities in different scenarios. Significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities are needed to increase crew autonomy and self-reliance in decision making and task performance. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. Clinical decision support (CDS) presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. A comprehensive crew health and performance CDSS is required to augment crew capability and will be used in different scenarios for several reasons. In general, the CDSS’s role is to assist the crew in prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of crew health and performance related conditions that may arise in exploration spaceflight. For example, CDSS would assist a high acuity scenario such as a heart attack by supplying clear instructions, vital signs and treatment reminders. A lower severity scenario such as kidney stone risk could interface to vehicle systems and display more complex predictive data during a diagnosis. A CDSS needs to contribute to successful missions by maintaining a high performing crew who can potentially exhibit countless medical conditions related to derangements from the space environment (sleep, cognition, nutrition and exercise) as well as conditions intrinsic to humans anywhere. While supporting the crew’s ability to make sound clinical decisions is desirable in any mission, it is essential for exploration missions with significant communication delays, no evacuation capability, and extended exposure to the flight environment. Such missions correspond with medical Level of Care V (LOC V), the highest level specified in NASA-STD-3001. The project focuses on CDS implementation research to derive requirements for LOC V, where the need for increased autonomy results in new practices and the inclusion of non-clinical data, such as vehicle environmental measures and physical exercise results, from other human and vehicle domains and advanced analytics. The CDS project describes how the CDSS is intended to be used by defining concepts of operations (ConOps). The process to derive ConOps focuses on increased autonomy that reduces the likelihood and consequences of accepted medical conditions. These crew health and performance inputs are grouped by common datasets and analysis models. Use cases are derived to research new clinical scenarios, architectural development and workflows. Implementation research is conducted with protypes to inform assumptions and derive requirements. The project also establishes how externally developed analysis and approaches can be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be globally developed with collaborators. This presentation will cover example scenarios from the CDS ConOps and the method to derive them. One example scenario will be CDSS alerting an increased kidney stone risk during a mission, with diagnosis and treatment options provided during the intervention.

clinical decision support↗

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. Crew members operating independently during long duration space exploration missions will require a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to increase autonomy by augmenting their knowledge, skills and abilities in different scenarios. Significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities are needed to increase crew autonomy and self-reliance in decision making and task performance. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. Clinical decision support (CDS) presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. A comprehensive crew health and performance CDSS is required to augment crew capability and will be used in different scenarios for several reasons. In general, the CDSS’s role is to assist the crew in prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of crew health and performance related conditions that may arise in exploration spaceflight. For example, CDSS would assist a high acuity scenario such as a heart attack by supplying clear instructions, vital signs and treatment reminders. A lower severity scenario such as kidney stone risk could interface to vehicle systems and display more complex predictive data during a diagnosis. A CDSS needs to contribute to successful missions by maintaining a high performing crew who can potentially exhibit countless medical conditions related to derangements from the space environment (sleep, cognition, nutrition and exercise) as well as conditions intrinsic to humans anywhere. While supporting the crew’s ability to make sound clinical decisions is desirable in any mission, it is essential for exploration missions with significant communication delays, no evacuation capability, and extended exposure to the flight environment. Such missions correspond with medical Level of Care V (LOC V), the highest level specified in NASA-STD-3001. The project focuses on CDS implementation research to derive requirements for LOC V, where the need for increased autonomy results in new practices and the inclusion of non-clinical data, such as vehicle environmental measures and physical exercise results, from other human and vehicle domains and advanced analytics. The CDS project describes how the CDSS is intended to be used by defining concepts of operations (ConOps). The process to derive ConOps focuses on increased autonomy that reduces the likelihood and consequences of accepted medical conditions. These crew health and performance inputs are grouped by common datasets and analysis models. Use cases are derived to research new clinical scenarios, architectural development and workflows. Implementation research is conducted with protypes to inform assumptions and derive requirements. The project also establishes how externally developed analysis and approaches can be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be globally developed with collaborators. This presentation will cover example scenarios from the CDS ConOps and the method to derive them. One example scenario will be CDSS alerting an increased kidney stone risk during a mission, with diagnosis and treatment options provided during the intervention.

clinical decision support↗

A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

Orbiter↗

Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Common Era↗

Validation of the aerosol optical property products derived by the GRASP/Component approach from multi-angular polarimetric observations

The multi-angle polarimetric satellite observations are helpful for improving the retrievals of aerosol parameters. However, practical applications of polarization technology are still limited because of complexity of measurement and interpretation of polarimetric observations. In this study, we analyze the performance of a new component approach developed in the frame of the Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm. In addition to aerosol optical properties including particle size distribution, non-sphericity and index of refraction that are commonly derived from multi-angle radiance and polarization measurements, the GRASP/Component approach also provides some information about aerosol composition. Specifically, in this approach aerosol is modeled as an internal mixture of several components with distinctly different chemical compositions and known refractive indices. The approach is intended not only to provide additional insight on aerosol composition but also to improve retrieval of basic aerosol optical properties. This study presents comprehensive validation and evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Ångstrom exponent (AE), fine mode AOD (AODF), coarse mode AOD (AODC), and single scattering albedo (SSA) as retrieved by the GRASP/Component approach. The GRASP/Component products include aerosol retrievals using two different aerosol component mixing rules, i.e., Maxwell-Garnett (MG) effective medium approximation and a simple Volume- Weighted averaging (VW). The differences between the results obtained using these two assumptions are also discussed. The obtained results show that the aerosol optical property products of GRASP/Component approach have good agreement with the ground-based AERONET measurements, which is comparable to other PARASOL/ GRASP approaches. Specifically, the AOD retrieved by GRASP/Component approach show high correlation and nearly no bias both over land and ocean, as compared with AERONET. The more detailed aerosol properties such as AE, AODF, AODC and SSA also show one of the best comparisons with AERONET. These improvements can probably be attributed to the use of the additional physical constraints on spectral dependence of the complex refractive index and the reduction of total number of aerosol parameters directly retrieved in the GRASP/Component approach. In addition, the choice of mixing rules had no significant effect on optical retrievals. With the exception of SSA, the results obtained based on the MG mixing rule were found to be slightly better over those obtained using VW mixing rule, especially for bias.

Brent N Holben↗

Wavelet Techniques Applied to Modeling Transitional/Turbulent Flows in Turbomachinery

Computer simulation is an essential part of the design and development of jet engines for the aeropropulsion industry. Engineers concerned with calculating the flow in jet engine components, such as compressors and turbines, need simple engineering models that accurately describe the complex flow of air and gases and that allow them to quickly estimate loads, losses, temperatures, and other design parameters. In this ongoing collaborative project, advanced wavelet analysis techniques are being used to gain insight into the complex flow phenomena. These insights, which cannot be achieved by commonly used methods, are being used to develop innovative new flow models and to improve existing ones. Wavelet techniques are very suitable for analyzing the complex turbulent and transitional flows pervasive in jet engines. These flows are characterized by intermittency and a multitude of scales. Wavelet analysis results in information about these scales and their locations. The distribution of scales is equivalent to the frequency spectrum provided by commonly used Fourier analysis techniques; however, no localization information is provided by Fourier analysis. In addition, wavelet techniques allow conditional sampling analyses of the individual scales, which is not possible by Fourier methods.

Source record↗

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture Project Update

Future Human Exploration missions will face new constraints as crews move further from terrestrial communication, resupply, and the real-time support enjoyed by Low Earth Orbit missions today. Exploration crews will need to be more self-reliant and able to respond to emergencies without immediate support from ground-based personnel. A new generation of technologies, employing advanced analytical and predictive modeling techniques, is needed to assist the crew’s work, help maintain their health, and inform the decisions they make on these future Exploration missions. The Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) project is laying a foundation for these future technologies by integrating sources of data generated by and around the crew then providing them though common data models and Application Programming Interfaces to external systems. The combined data model makes comprehensive Crew Health and Performance data accessible and more meaningful to the decision-making process. This presentation will describe the currently ongoing effort to develop a path-to-flight concept of the CHP-IDA software, current integrations that have been developed, updates to the architecture, and examples of the corresponding exploration scenarios in which CHP-IDA would be used.

Exploration↗

Toward a Comprehensive Carbon Budget for North America: Potential Applications of Adjoint Methods with Diverse Datasets

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future COS levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an "inverse problem," where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from long-term surface monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. A major advantage of the adjoint approach is that meteorological and surface data, as well as data for other atmospheric constituents and pollutants can be efficiently included in addition to observations of CO2 mixing ratios. This presentation will provide an overview of potentially useful datasets for carbon cycle research in general with an emphasis on planning for the North American Carbon Project. Areas of overlap with ongoing and proposed work on air quality/air pollution issues will be highlighted.

Andrews, A.↗

An Adjoint-Based Analysis of the Sampling Footprints of Tall Tower, Aircraft and Potential Future Lidar Observations of CO2

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future CO2 levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an 'inverse problem', where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from longterm surface and aircraft monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. We have recently developed an adjoint for the GSFC 3-D Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model (PCTM). Here, we will present results from a PCTM Adjoint study comparing the sampling footprints of tall tower, aircraft and potential future lidar observations of CO2. The vertical resolution and extent of the profiles and the observation frequency will be considered for several sites in North America.

Andrews, Arlyn↗

Loggers and Forest Fragmentation: Behavioral Models of Road Building in the Amazon Basin

Although a large literature now exists on the drivers of tropical deforestation, less is known about its spatial manifestation. This is a critical shortcoming in our knowledge base since the spatial pattern of land-cover change and forest fragmentation, in particular, strongly affect biodiversity. The purpose of this article is to consider emergent patterns of road networks, the initial proximate cause of fragmentation in tropical forest frontiers. Specifically, we address the road-building processes of loggers who are very active in the Amazon landscape. To this end, we develop an explanation of road expansions, using a positive approach combining a theoretical model of economic behavior with geographic information systems (GIs) software in order to mimic the spatial decisions of road builders. We simulate two types of road extensions commonly found in the Amazon basin in a region: showing the fishbone pattern of fragmentation. Although our simulation results are only partially successful, they call attention to the role of multiple agents in the landscape, the importance of legal and institutional constraints on economic behavior, and the power of GIs as a research tool.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

Gradient-Enhanced Reliability Analysis of Transonic Aeroelastic Flutter

Reliability computation for transonic aeroelastic systems is a challenging task, given the complex physical mechanisms involved, and broader challenges associated with computing small probabilities of failure/flutter. This paper demonstrates the use of four different reliability estimation tools, with a particular focus on tools that can utilize gradient information: the derivative of flutter boundaries with respect to random parametric inputs. Results are shown for two test cases: the AGARD 445.6 case and the Common Research Model, and the strength and weaknesses of each UQ tool are compared in terms of cost and accuracy. Two of the UQ tools used here require gradients as part of a search process, but the other two are sample-based, and are able to leverage the existence of gradients for improved performance.

Bret K Stanford↗

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture Project Updates

Future Human Exploration missions will face new constraints as crews move further from terrestrial communication, resupply, and the real-time support enjoyed by Low Earth Orbit missions today. Exploration crews will need to be more self-reliant and able to respond to emergencies without immediate support from ground-based personnel. A new generation of technologies, employing advanced analytical and predictive modeling techniques, is needed to assist the crew’s work, help maintain their health, and inform the decisions they make on these future Exploration missions. The Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) project is laying a foundation for these future technologies by integrating sources of data generated by and around the crew and then providing them though common data models and Application Programming Interfaces to external systems. The combined data model makes comprehensive Crew Health and Performance data accessible and more meaningful to the decision-making process. This presentation will describe the currently ongoing effort to develop and evaluate a path-to-flight concept of the CHP-IDA software, current integrations, updates to the architecture, and examples of exploration scenarios in which CHP-IDA would be used.

B Schmitt↗

Electron trapping in evolving coronal structures during a large gradual hard X-ray/radio burst

Gradual hard X-ray/radio bursts are characterized by their long duration, smooth time profile, time delays between peaks at different hard X-ray energies and microwaves, and radiation from extended sources in the low and middle corona. Their characteristic properties have been ascribed to the dynamic evolution of the accelerated electrons in coronal magnetic traps or to the separate acceleration of high-energy electrons in a 'second step' process. The information available so far was drawn from quality considerations of time profiles or even only from the common occurrence of emissions in different spectral ranges. This paper presents model computations of the temporal evolution of hard X-ray and microwave spectra, together with a qualitative discussion of radio lightcurves over a wide spectral range, and metric imaging observations. The basis hypothesis investigated is that the peculiar 'gradual' features can be related to the dynamical evolution of electrons injected over an extended time interval in a coronal trap, with electrons up to relativistic energies being injected simultaneously. The analyzed event (26 April. 1981) is particularly challenging to this hypothesis because of the long time delays between peaks at different X-ray energies and microwave frequencies. The observations are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis, provided that the electrons lose their energy by Coulomb collisions and possibly betatron deceleration. The access of the electrons to different coronal structures varies in the course of the event. The evolution and likely destabilization of part of the coronal plasma-magnetic field configuration is of crucial influence in determining the access to these structures and possibly the dynamical evolution of the trapped electrons through betatron deceleration in the late phase of the event.

Bruggmann, G.↗

An Optical Model for Estimating the Underwater Light Field from Remote Sensing

A model of the wavelength-integrated scalar irradiance for a vertically homogeneous water column is developed. It runs twenty thousand times faster than simulations obtained using full Hydrolight code and limits the percentage error to less than 3.7%. Both the distribution of incident sky radiance and a wind-roughened surface are integrated in the model. Our model removes common limitations of earlier models and can be applied to waters with any composition of the inherent optical properties. Implementation of this new model, as well as the ancillary information required for processing global-scale satellite data, is discussed. This new model is fast, accurate, and flexible and therefore provides important information of the underwater light field from remote sensing.

Liu, Cheng-Chien↗

Human Adaptation to Isolated and Confined Environments

A study was conducted over seven months in a winter Antarctic isolated and confined environment (ICE). Physiological and psychological data was collected several times a week. Information was collected on a monthly basis on behavior and the use of physical facilities. Adaptation and information indicated that there was a significant decrease in epinephrine and norepinephrine during the middle trimester of the winter. No vital changes were found for blood pressure. Self reports of hostility and anxiety show a linear increase. There were no significant changes in depression during ICE. The physiological and psychological data do not move in a synchronous fashion over time. The data also suggest that both ambient qualities of an ICE and discrete social environmental events, such as the arrival of the summer crew, have an impact on the outcome measures used. It may be most appropiate to develop a model for ICE's that incorporates not only global chronic stressors common to all ICE's but also the role of discrete environmental effects which can minimize or enhance the influence of more chronic stressors. Behavioral adjustment information highlight the importance of developing schedules which balance work and recreational activities.

Evans, Gary W.↗

Lessons Learned from Numerical Simulations of the F-16XL Aircraft at Flight Conditions

Nine groups participating in the Cranked Arrow Wing Aerodynamics Project International (CAWAPI) project have contributed steady and unsteady viscous simulations of a full-scale, semi-span model of the F-16XL aircraft. Three different categories of flight Reynolds/Mach number combinations were computed and compared with flight-test measurements for the purpose of code validation and improved understanding of the flight physics. Steady-state simulations are done with several turbulence models of different complexity with no topology information required and which overcome Boussinesq-assumption problems in vortical flows. Detached-eddy simulation (DES) and its successor delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) have been used to compute the time accurate flow development. Common structured and unstructured grids as well as individually-adapted unstructured grids were used. Although discrepancies are observed in the comparisons, overall reasonable agreement is demonstrated for surface pressure distribution, local skin friction and boundary velocity profiles at subsonic speeds. The physical modeling, steady or unsteady, and the grid resolution both contribute to the discrepancies observed in the comparisons with flight data, but at this time it cannot be determined how much each part contributes to the whole. Overall it can be said that the technology readiness of CFD-simulation technology for the study of vehicle performance has matured since 2001 such that it can be used today with a reasonable level of confidence for complex configurations.

Rizzi, Arthur↗

What was Learned from Numerical Simulations of F-16XL (CAWAPI) at Flight Conditions

Nine groups participating in the CAWAPI project have contributed steady and unsteady viscous simulations of a full-scale, semi-span model of the F-16XL aircraft. Three different categories of flight Reynolds/Mach number combinations were computed and compared with flight-test measurements for the purpose of code validation and improved understanding of the flight physics. Steady-state simulations are done with several turbulence models of different complexity with no topology information required and which overcome Boussinesq-assumption problems in vortical flows. Detached-eddy simulation (DES) and its successor delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) have been used to compute the time accurate flow development. Common structured and unstructured grids as well as individually-adapted unstructured grids were used. Although discrepancies are observed in the comparisons, overall reasonable agreement is demonstrated for surface pressure distribution, local skin friction and boundary velocity profiles at subsonic speeds. The physical modeling, be it steady or unsteady flow, and the grid resolution both contribute to the discrepancies observed in the comparisons with flight data, but at this time it cannot be determined how much each part contributes to the whole. Overall it can be said that the technology readiness of CFD-simulation technology for the study of vehicle performance has matured since 2001 such that it can be used today with a reasonable level of confidence for complex configurations.

Rizzi, Arthur↗