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NASA NTRS2018

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Paul D Friz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Miserable Risk Estimation: “Managing” Low-Probability, High-Consequence Risks

As with all bold endeavors, NASA missions must identify and manage their risks. While estimating the consequences of these risks is typically straightforward, it can be challenging to estimate their likelihood. This is especially true for low-probability risks, due both to the lack of operational data and the cognitive biases humans bring to risk estimation. In this talk, I will present both a tongue-in-cheek and “Management Science” approach to estimating low-probability, high-consequence risks. I then summon my Human Factors colleagues to provide NASA mission managers with the gentle guidance needed to avoid common errors in risk assessment

Mary K Kaiser↗

NASA NTRS1991

The NASA SETI program

In 1959, it was proposed that a sensible way to conduct interstellar communication would be to use radio at or near the frequency of hydrogen. In 1960, the first Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) was conducted using a radiotelescope at Green Bank in West Virginia. Since 1970, NASA has systematically developed a definitive program to conduct a sophisticated search for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligent life. The basic hypothesis is that life may be widespread in the univers, and that in many instances extraterrestrial life may have evolved into technological civilizations. The underlying scientific arguments are based on the continuously improving knowledge of astronomy and astrophysics, especially star system formation, and of planetary science, chemical evolution, and biological evolution. If only one in a million sun-like stars in our galaxy harbors species with cognitive intelligence, then there are 100,000 civilizations in the Milky Way alone. The fields of radioastronomy digital electronic engineering, spectrum analysis, and signal detection have advanced rapidly in the last twenty years and now allow for sophisticated systems to be built in order to attempt the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence signals. In concert with the scientific and engineering communities, NASA has developed, over the last several years, a Microwave Observing Project whose goal is to design, build, and operate SETI systems during the decade of the nineties in pursuit of the goal signal detection. The Microwave Observing Project is now approved and underway. There are two major components in the project: the Target Search Element and the Sky Survey Element.

Billingham, J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Interdisciplinary Interactions During R&D and Early Design of Large Engineered Systems

Designing Large-Scale Complex Engineered Systems (LaCES) such as aircraft and submarines requires the input of thousands of engineers and scientists whose work is proximate in neither time nor space. Comprehensive knowledge of the system is dispersed among specialists whose expertise is in typically one system component or discipline. This study examined the interactive work practices among such specialists seeking to improve engineering practice through a rigorous and theoretical understanding of current practice. This research explored current interdisciplinary practices and perspectives during R&D and early LaCES design and identified why these practices and perspectives prevail and persist. The research design consisted of a three-fold, integrative approach that combined an open-ended survey, semi-structured interviews, and ethnography. Significant empirical data from experienced engineers and scientists in a large engineering organization were obtained and integrated with theories from organization science and engineering. Qualitative analysis was used to obtain a holistic, contextualized understanding. The over-arching finding is that issues related to cognition, organization, and social interrelations mostly dominate interactions across disciplines. Engineering issues, such as the integration of hardware or physics-based models, are not as significant. For example, organization culture is an important underlying factor that guided researchers more toward individual sovereignty over cross-disciplinarity. The organization structure and the engineered system architecture also serve as constraints to the engineering work. Many differences in work practices were observed, including frequency and depth of interactions, definition or co-construction of requirements, clarity or creation of the system architecture, work group proximity, and cognitive challenges. Practitioners are often unaware of these differences resulting in confusion and incorrect assumptions regarding work expectations. Cognitively, the enactment and coconstruction of knowledge are the fundamental tasks of the interdisciplinary interactions. Distributed and collective cognition represent most of the efforts. Argument, ignorance, learning, and creativity are interrelated aspects of the interactions that cause discomfort but yield benefits such as problem mitigation, broader understanding, and improved system design and performance. The quality and quantity of social interrelations are central to all work across disciplines with reciprocity, respectful engagement, and heedful interrelations being significant to the effectiveness of the engineering and scientific work.

McGowan, Anna-Maria Rivas↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA Pilot-Engaged Expert Response Using IBM Watson Technology: Prototype Evaluation of Knowledge Retrieval System

NASA Langley Research Center and IBM have been investigating the use of IBM Watson technology in aerospace research and development. One application of Watson technology is the Pilot-Engaged Expert Response (PEER) use case. The PEER system is envisioned as an in-cockpit advisor that will act as a source of situationally-relevant information for pilots and other flight crew members to assist in decision making about real-time events and situations that arise in the course of aircraft operations. PEER will make available vast stores of knowledge and information quickly and directly, putting important informational resources where they are needed most. IBM has worked with NASA to develop an architecture and articulate a roadmap for the development of the PEER system. That vision is built around Watson Discovery Advisor (WDA) software solution, derived from IBM's Jeopardy!-winning automatic question answering system. PEER makes use of WDA's sophisticated question-answering capabilities as its core, adding important User Interface components and other customizations for the cockpit environment, including communication with flight systems and other external data sources. The development plan for PEER includes four development stages, with the current project constituting the first phase. In this project, a prototype instance of PEER was successfully adapted to the aviation domain, enabling users to ask questions about aviation topics and receive useful and accurate answers to these questions. Major tasks accomplished include the development of procedures for domain adaptation through automatic lexicon extraction from domain glossaries; generation of question-answer training data which was used to train the system; and assessment of the effectiveness of domain adaptation, which showed a dramatic improvement in the ability of the PEER system to answer domain-relevant questions. In addition, the vision for the PEER system was pushed forward by the articulation of a plan for the automatic enhancement of question-answering with contextual information. This initial phase focused on two main goals: 1) the targeted domain adaptation of the underlying WDA system to the aviation domain; and, 2) the design of the software systems needed to leverage flight-contextual data. Domain adaptation of the WDA system proceeds via three main activities: Domain data ingestion, lexical customization and model training. A textual corpus consisting of 1,147 individual documents with more than 7.5 million words of text was ingested into the system and this served as the basis of all further development. A domain lexicon of over 3,500 aviation-domain terms was semi-automatically generated from domain documents and used to train the system. In addition, a set of over 500 question-answer (QA) pairs relevant to the PEER use case was developed; these were used to train and assess the system. These important first steps established the basis for the PEER system. In addition, steps were taken towards the integration of the PEER system into the cockpit environment with the development of a functional design for the Contextual Data Augmentation (CDA) subsystem. This subsystem brings to bear contextual data to improve system responses. It has three main submodules: the Contextual Data Collection module, the Contextual Data Selection module, and the Contextual QA Augmentation module. These modules form a processing pipeline that addresses the problems associated with automatically integrating information from external resources into the knowledge-retrieval mechanism.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1990

Toward applied behavior analysis of life aloft

This article deals with systems at multiple levels, at least from cell to organization. It also deals with learning, decision making, and other behavior at multiple levels. Technological development of a human behavioral ecosystem appropriate to space environments requires an analytic and synthetic orientation, explicitly experimental in nature, dictated by scientific and pragmatic considerations, and closely approximating procedures of established effectiveness in other areas of natural science. The conceptual basis of such an approach has its roots in environmentalism which has two main features: (1) knowledge comes from experience rather than from innate ideas, divine revelation, or other obscure sources; and (2) action is governed by consequences rather than by instinct, reason, will, beliefs, attitudes or even the currently fashionable cognitions. Without an experimentally derived data base founded upon such a functional analysis of human behavior, the overgenerality of "ecological systems" approaches render them incapable of ensuring the successful establishment of enduring space habitats. Without an experimentally derived function account of individual behavioral variability, a natural science of behavior cannot exist. And without a natural science of behavior, the social sciences will necessarily remain in their current status as disciplines of less than optimal precision or utility. Such a functional analysis of human performance should provide an operational account of behavior change in a manner similar to the way in which Darwin's approach to natural selection accounted for the evolution of phylogenetic lines (i.e., in descriptive, nonteleological terms). Similarly, as Darwin's account has subsequently been shown to be consonant with information obtained at the cellular level, so too should behavior principles ultimately prove to be in accord with an account of ontogenetic adaptation at a biochemical level. It would thus seem obvious that the most productive conceptual and methodological approaches to long-term research investments focused upon human behavior in space environments will require multidisciplinary inputs from such wide-ranging fields as molecular biology, environmental physiology, behavioral biology, architecture, sociology, and political science, among others.

Review↗

NASA NTRS2003

Cognitive deficits induced by 56Fe radiation exposure

Exposing rats to particles of high energy and charge (e.g., 56Fe) disrupts neuronal systems and the behaviors mediated by them; these adverse behavioral and neuronal effects are similar to those seen in aged animals. Because cognition declines with age, and our previous study showed that radiation disrupted Morris water maze spatial learning and memory performance, the present study used an 8-arm radial maze (RAM) to further test the cognitive behavioral consequences of radiation exposure. Control rats or rats exposed to whole-body irradiation with 1.0 Gy of 1 GeV/n high-energy 56Fe particles (delivered at the alternating gradient synchrotron at Brookhaven National Laboratory) were tested nine months following exposure. Radiation adversely affected RAM performance, and the changes seen parallel those of aging. Irradiated animals entered baited arms during the first 4 choices significantly less than did controls, produced their first error sooner, and also tended to make more errors as measured by re-entries into non-baited arms. These results show that irradiation with high-energy particles produces age-like decrements in cognitive behavior that may impair the ability of astronauts to perform critical tasks during long-term space travel beyond the magnetosphere. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLAIRE: Enabling Heterogeneous Communication Network Optimization for Robust and Resilient Operations

In this paper, we present the capabilities of the CLAIRE System which provides resilient communications for NASA in presence of interference and congestion for a heterogeneous multi-vendor network. CLAIRE increases mission science data return to improve resource efficiencies and ensures resilience in the unpredictable space environment for NASA missions and communication networks. CLAIRE provides technology / waveform agnostic cognitive control plane that is instantiated at the Application Layer (APP) so that it can ride on NASA’s HDTN bundle protocol or any other protocol stack that is used by the network. The cognitive control plane is instantiated using Heartbeats (HTBTs). CLAIRE is assisted by Wideband UHF-Ka Band RF Sensing that leverages advances in the Direct Digital Transceiver (DDTRX) technology. The Wideband RF Sensing is driven by statistical signal processing and machine learning algorithms. Interference is mitigated using Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). Finally, CLAIRE addresses congestion using spectrum aware packet forwarding algorithm. CLAIRE provides an extensible protocol that allows passing of RF spectrum situational awareness, cross-layer sensing, delay tolerant networking and dynamic spectrum access information that can help with network optimization. Cross-Layer Sensing (CLS) and CLAIRE Decision Engine (CDE) enable spectrum and delay aware packet forwarding and Dynamic Spectrum Access during cases of severe interference.

cognitive communications↗

NASA NTRS2015

Citizen Science

Scientists and engineers constantly face new challenges, despite myriad advances in computing. More sets of data are collected today from earth and sky than there is time or resources available to carefully analyze them. Some problems either don't have fast algorithms to solve them or have solutions that must be found among millions of options, a situation akin to finding a needle in a haystack. But all hope is not lost: advances in technology and the Internet have empowered the general public to participate in the scientific process via individual computational resources and brain cognition, which isn't matched by any machine. Citizen scientists are volunteers who perform scientific work by making observations, collecting and disseminating data, making measurements, and analyzing or interpreting data without necessarily having any scientific training. In so doing, individuals from all over the world can contribute to science in ways that wouldn't have been otherwise possible.

distributed computing↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Distributed Approach to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking Within a Virtualized Environment

The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) project has taken a distributed service-based approach to the development of a highly efficient delay tolerant networking (DTN) implementation. Through the analysis of many DTN implementations, system and mission requirements as well as the DTN protocol specifications, HDTN has worked to infuse modern computing technologies into the NASA approach to interplanetary networking. The initial use case of the HDTN software runs on a hypervisor representative of the International Space Station (ISS) DTN Gateway. In this scenario, multiple emulated payloads will send science data through HDTN to a mission operations center. HDTN will provide store and forward capability as well as network flow management. This paper discusses the infusion path of cognitive networking technologies in the NASA SCaN networks using the DTN architecture and protocols as the basis for cognitive routing and network management capabilities. HDTN has been developing the Bundle Protocol encoding and decoding mechanisms and messaging framework that can be used as the basis for integrating DTN with various learning and decision-making processes. The concepts of distributed computing, network virtualization, software defined networking and delay tolerant networking are basic building blocks which will further the development of cognitive networking. In addition to discussion of the HDTN software development and testing, this paper examines the role that each of these technologies play in the evolution of the current state of space networking into an intelligent network of networks.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Approach to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking Within a Virtualized Environment

The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) project has taken a distributed service-based approach to the development of a highly efficient delay tolerant networking (DTN) implementation. Through the analysis of many DTN implementations, system and mission requirements as well as the DTN protocol specifications, HDTN has worked to infuse modern computing technologies into the NASA approach to interplanetary networking. The initial use case of the HDTN software runs on a hypervisor representative of the International Space Station (ISS) DTN Gateway. In this scenario, multiple emulated payloads will send science data through HDTN to a mission operations center. HDTN will provide store and forward capability as well as network flow management. This paper discusses the infusion path of cognitive networking technologies in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) networks using the DTN architecture and protocols as the basis for cognitive routing and network management capabilities. HDTN has been developing the Bundle Protocol encoding and decoding mechanisms and messaging framework that can be used as the basis for integrating DTN with various learning and decision-making processes. The concepts of distributed computing, network virtualization, software defined networking and delay tolerant networking are basic building blocks which will further the development of cognitive networking. In addition to discussion of the HDTN software development and testing, this paper examines the role that each of these technologies play in the evolution of the current state of space networking into an intelligent network of networks.

Rachel Mary Dudukovich↗

NASA NTRS1992

Neurocontrol and neurobiology - New developments and connections

At McDonnell-Douglas, controllers which combine adaptive critic networks with the use of backpropagation in real time have solved difficult control problems crucial to the feasibility of building the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) able to reach earth orbit. As details emerged, parallels to neurobiology have grown stronger and have begun to lead to empirical possibilities of importance to neuroscience. This has led to thoughts of institutional collaboration facilitating what could become a Newtonian revolution in neuroscience, with cognitive implications as well. The authors elaborate on each of these points. The topics discussed are recent progress in neurocontrol; progress in optimization and reinforcement learning; implications for neurobiology and science policy; and a new view of the brain.

Werbos, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Data-Intensive Science meets Inquiry-Driven Pedagogy: Interactive Big Data Exploration, Threshold Concepts, and Liminality

Threshold concepts in any discipline are the core concepts an individual must understand in order to master a discipline. By their very nature, these concepts are troublesome, irreversible, integrative, bounded, discursive, and reconstitutive. Although grasping threshold concepts can be extremely challenging for each learner as s/he moves through stages of cognitive development relative to a given discipline, the learner's grasp of these concepts determines the extent to which s/he is prepared to work competently and creatively within the field itself. The movement of individuals from a state of ignorance of these core concepts to one of mastery occurs not along a linear path but in iterative cycles of knowledge creation and adjustment in liminal spaces - conceptual spaces through which learners move from the vaguest awareness of concepts to mastery, accompanied by understanding of their relevance, connectivity, and usefulness relative to questions and constructs in a given discipline. For example, challenges in the teaching and learning of atmospheric science can be traced to threshold concepts in fluid dynamics. In particular, Dynamic Meteorology is one of the most challenging courses for graduate students and undergraduates majoring in Atmospheric Science. Dynamic Meteorology introduces threshold concepts - those that prove troublesome for the majority of students but that are essential, associated with fundamental relationships between forces and motion in the atmosphere and requiring the application of basic classical statics, dynamics, and thermodynamic principles to the three dimensionally varying atmospheric structure. With the explosive growth of data available in atmospheric science, driven largely by satellite Earth observations and high-resolution numerical simulations, paradigms such as that of dataintensive science have emerged. These paradigm shifts are based on the growing realization that current infrastructure, tools and processes will not allow us to analyze and fully utilize the complex and voluminous data that is being gathered. In this emerging paradigm, the scientific discovery process is driven by knowledge extracted from large volumes of data. In this presentation, we contend that this paradigm naturally lends to inquiry-driven pedagogy where knowledge is discovered through inductive engagement with large volumes of data rather than reached through traditional, deductive, hypothesis-driven analyses. In particular, data-intensive techniques married with an inductive methodology allow for exploration on a scale that is not possible in the traditional classroom with its typical problem sets and static, limited data samples. In addition, we identify existing gaps and possible solutions for addressing the infrastructure and tools as well as a pedagogical framework through which to implement this inductive approach.

Ramachandran, Rahul↗

NASA NTRS1990

Vision science and technology for supervised intelligent space robots

The focus of recent work in robotic vision for application in intelligent space robots such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Retriever is in visual function, that is, how information about the space world is derived and then conveyed to cognition. The goal of this work in visual function is first to understand how the relevant structure of the surrounding world is evidenced by regularities among the pixels of images, then to understand how these regularities are mapped on the premises that form the primitive elements of cognition, and then to apply these understandings with the elements of visual processing (algorithms) and visual mechanism (machine organization) to intelligent space robot simulations and test beds. Since visual perception is the process of recognizing regularities in images that are known on the basis of a model of the world to be reliable related to causal structure in the environment (because perception attaches meaning to the link between a conception of the environment and the objective environment), the work involves understanding generic, generally applicable models of world structure (not merely objects) and how that structure evidences itself in images.

Erickson, Jon D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Assessment of the pharmacodynamics of intranasal, intravenous and oral scopolamine

Space motion sickness is an important issue in the space medical sciences program. One of the objectives of the ongoing clinical experimental protocol Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine in Normal Subjects is to evaluate the pharmacodynamics of scopolamine using salivary flow rate and pH profiles and cognitive performance tests as pharmacodynamic parameters. Normal volunteers collected saliva and performed the NTI Multiresource Performance Battery tests at designed time intervals to establish control saliva flow rates, salivary pH profiles, and the characteristics of the learning curve for the performance program under normal conditions. In the clinical part of the study, saliva samples and performance test scores are collected from healthy nonsmoking subjects after receiving a single 0.4 mg dose of either intranasal, intravenous, or oral scopolamine.

Tietze, Karen J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Scientific Physical and Operations Characterization (SPOC): Studying Scientists in the Wild to Inform Human Planetary Exploration Operations

The objective of the Scientific Physical and Operational Characterization (SPOC) project is to build an evidence-based description of terrestrial field science to inform the operational, physical, and tool requirements for planetary exploration extravehicular activities (xEVAs). EVAs of the future, including Artemis 2024 and beyond, intend to promote scientific productivity (e.g., LEAG science goals)[1]; however, no clear, objective pathway currently exists to enable this goal, particularly with respect to the desired increase in autonomy imparted to future astronauts. The SPOC project applies expertise in the fields of cognitive systems engineering [2-5], biomechanics, wearable sensors [6-8] and hardware/software to more targetly address these issues. In doing so, a terrestrial fieldwork ground-truth can be established that will benefit human and robotic exploration of other planetary surfaces.

M J Miller↗

NASA NTRS2016

Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders: Evidence Report

In April 2010, President Obama declared a space pioneering goal for the United States in general and NASA in particular. "Fifty years after the creation of NASA, our goal is no longer just a destination to reach. Our goal is the capacity for people to work and learn and operate and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite." Thus NASA's Strategic Objective 1.1 emerged as "expand human presence into the solar system and to the surface of Mars to advance exploration, science, innovation, benefits to humanity, and international collaboration" (NASA 2015b). Any space flight, be it of long or short duration, occurs in an extreme environment that has unique stressors. Even with excellent selection methods, the potential for behavioral problems among space flight crews remain a threat to mission success. Assessment of factors that are related to behavioral health can help minimize the chances of distress and, thus, reduce the likelihood of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders arising within a crew. Similarly, countermeasures that focus on prevention and treatment can mitigate the cognitive or behavioral conditions that, should they arise, would impact mission success. Given the general consensus that longer duration, isolation, and confined missions have a greater risk for behavioral health ensuring crew behavioral health over the long term is essential. Risk, which within the context of this report is assessed with respect to behavioral health and performance, is addressed to deter development of cognitive and behavioral degradations or psychiatric conditions in space flight and analog populations, and to monitor, detect, and treat early risk factors, predictors and other contributing factors. Based on space flight and analog evidence, the average incidence rate of an adverse behavioral health event occurring during a space mission is relatively low for the current conditions. While mood and anxiety disturbances have occurred, no behavioral emergencies have been reported to date in space flight. Anecdotal and empirical evidence indicate that the likelihood of an adverse cognitive or behavioral condition or psychiatric disorder occurring greatly increases with the length of a mission. Further, while cognitive, behavioral, or psychiatric conditions might not immediately and directly threaten mission success, such conditions can, and do, adversely impact individual and crew health, welfare, and performance.

Slack, Kelley J.↗