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Upper-Tropospheric Winds Derived from Geostationary Satellite Water Vapor Observations

The coverage and quality of remotely sensed upper-tropospheric moisture parameters have improved considerably with the deployment of a new generation of operational geostationary meteorological satellites: GOES-8/9 and GMS-5. The GOES-8/9 water vapor imaging capabilities have increased as a result of improved radiometric sensitivity and higher spatial resolution. The addition of a water vapor sensing channel on the latest GMS permits nearly global viewing of upper-tropospheric water vapor (when joined with GOES and Meteosat) and enhances the commonality of geostationary meteorological satellite observing capabilities. Upper-tropospheric motions derived from sequential water vapor imagery provided by these satellites can be objectively extracted by automated techniques. Wind fields can be deduced in both cloudy and cloud-free environments. In addition to the spatially coherent nature of these vector fields, the GOES-8/9 multispectral water vapor sensing capabilities allow for determination of wind fields over multiple tropospheric layers in cloud-free environments. This article provides an update on the latest efforts to extract water vapor motion displacements over meteorological scales ranging from subsynoptic to global. The potential applications of these data to impact operations, numerical assimilation and prediction, and research studies are discussed.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

High resolution tropical cyclone wind fields determined from cloud motions

Full resolution rapid scan infrared and visible images from the VISSR sensor on board SMS-2/GEOS-1 satellite have made it possible to maximize the number of tropical cyclone upper and lower tropospheric wind vectors by a factor of 6(2) over that of the images taken at 30 minute (15 minute) intervals. These full resolution rapid scan visible images have also made it possible to derive low level winds near the center of tropical cyclones.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively by operational analysts and forecasters, mainly in a qualitative mode (Weldon and Holmes 1991). In addition to qualitative applications, motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes, thereby augmenting the information provided by cloud-drift wind vectors. Early attempts at quantifying the data by tracking features in water vapor imagery met with modest success (Stewart et al. 1985; Hayden and Stewart 1987). More recently, automated techniques have been developed and refined, and have resulted in upper-level wind observations comparable in quality to current operational cloud-tracked winds (Laurent 1993). In a recent study by Velden et al. (1993) it was demonstrated that wind sets derived from Meteosat-3 (M-3) water vapor imagery can provide important environmental wind information in data void areas surrounding tropical cyclones, and can positively impact objective track forecasts. M-3 was repositioned to 75W by the European Space Agency in 1992 in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the current GOES-7 (G-7) satellite (positioned near 112W), the M-3 water vapor channel contains a superior horizontal resolution (5 km vs. 16 km ). In this paper, we examine wind sets derived using automated procedures from both GOES-7 and Meteosat-3 full disk water vapor imagery in order to assess this data as a potentially important source of large-scale wind information. As part of a product demonstration wind sets were produced twice a day at CIMSS during a six-week period in March and April (1994). These data sets are assessed in terms of geographic coverage, statistical accuracy, and meteorological impact through preliminary results of numerical model forecast studies.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

Airborne observations of electric fields around growing and decaying cumulus clouds

Airborne electric field data were gathered in an atmospheric electrification study near Cape Canaveral, FL. A Learjet 36A was instrumented with eight electric field meters (mills) and five different particle probes. The local electric field enhancements at each field mill site were determined under lab conditions and verified using in-flight data. The overdetermined system of eight equations (one for each field mill) was solved using a weighted least squares algorithm to compute the magnitude and direction of the ambient electric field. The signal processing system allowed the measured data to be expressed in terms of earth coordinates, regardless of the attitude of the aircraft. Thus, it was possible to take maximum advantage of the Learjet's speed and maneuverability in studying the electric field structure in the vicinity of the clouds. Data gathered while circling just outside the boundary of a growing cumulus cloud show a nonsymmetric pattern of electric field strength. Field intensity grew rapidly over a period of less than 10 minutes. The observed direction of the ambient electric field vector can be explained by an ascending motion of the charge centers of a classic tripole model of a thunderstorm.

Giori, K. L.↗

High-resolution Ca II observations of the local interstellar medium

High-resolution absorption measurements of the interstellar Ca II K line observed toward 46 early-type stars in the local ISM (LISM) are presented. Ca II was detected in 36 of the 46 stars with 82 individual cloud components identified. Ca II was detected to most of the stars closer than 50 pc, except in the region of the Galactic quadrant l = 180-270 degrees which also contains the empty line of sight to B CMa at 220 pc. The mean local standard of rest velocity of the 82 Ca II components implies that the LISM clouds are associated with the motion of the solar neighborhood and not the sun. If the present data are combined with other nearby Ca II component velocities taken from the literature, then a cloud centered approximately at l = 90 deg, b = -40 deg moving coherently with the local interstellar wind vector is supported at a significance level of 99 percent. The Ca II data have been combined with Na I data for the same stars to produce a N(Na I)/N(Ca II) ratio for each identified absorption feature. This ratio plotted against the local standard of rest velocities of the clouds shows that the Routly-Spitzer effect exists down to +/- 10 km/s, which supports grain desorption/destruction models that are efficient at returning calcium to the gas phase at these low velocities.

Vallerga, J. V.↗

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗

Assessment of Geo-Kompsat-2A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data and Its Assimilation Impact in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Korea’s second geostationary meteorological satellite, Geo-Kompsat-2A (Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A, GK2A), was successfully launched on 4 December 2018. GK2Agenerates Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) every 10 min in the full disk area. This data hasbeen disseminated via Global Telecommunication System (GTS) since 25 October 2019. This articleevaluates the quality of GK2A AMVs in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmosphericdata assimilation system (ADAS). The data show slow wind speed biases at 200–300 hPa and 600–800hPa in the northern and southern hemispheres. These biases are caused by observation heightassignment errors near jet streams. The Equivalent Blackbody Temperature (EBBT) method of GK2Atends to assign clouds at higher altitude, which mainly causes slow wind speed biases, especially inthe lower atmosphere. The IR/WV intercept method of GK2A assigns clouds slightly lower in theatmospheric layers below the altitude of 400 hPa, which causes positive biases. Quality control (QC)criteria to select the most suitable GK2A AMV data for assimilation are presented based on thesequality assessments. A new QC criterion utilizing height errors within the GEOS ADAS is introducedto exclude data with slow wind speed biases and large errors. GEOS forecast accuracy is slightlyimproved after assimilating GK2A AMVs along with other conventional, radiance, and satellitewinds which include AMVs made by the Himawari-8 satellite in nearly the same observational areaof GK2A. Additionally, the present work shows that GEOS forecasts can be significantly improved,especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere after assimilating GK2A data in the absence ofHimawari-8 AMVs. This study demonstrates that GK2A AMV data is a valuable data source toenhance the robustness of GEOS ADAS.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors↗

Cloud motion in relation to the ambient wind field

Trajectories of convective clouds were computed from a mathematical model and compared with trajectories observed by radar. The ambient wind field was determined from the AVE IIP data. The model includes gradient, coriolis, drag, lift, and lateral forces. The results show that rotational effects may account for large differences between the computed and observed trajectories and that convective clouds may move 10 to 20 degrees to the right or left of the average wind vector and at speeds 5 to 10 m/sec faster or slower than the average ambient wind speed.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Large Aperture Scanning Lidar Based on Holographic Optical Elements

Lidar remote sensing instruments can make a significant contribution to satisfying many of the required measurements of atmospheric and surface parameters for future spaceborne platforms, including topographic altimeters, atmospheric profiles of, wind, humidity, temperature, trace molecules, aerosols, and clouds. It is highly desirable to have wide measurement swaths for rapid coverage rather than just the narrow ribbon of data that is obtained with a nadir only observation. For most applications global coverage is required, and for wind measurements scanning or pointing is required in order to retrieve the full 3-D wind vector from multiple line-of-sight Doppler measurements. Conventional lidar receivers make up a substantial portion of the instrument's size and weight. Wide angle scanning typically requires a large scanning mirror in front of the receiver telescope, or pointing the entire telescope and aft optics assembly, Either of these methods entails the use of large bearings, motors, gearing and their associated electronics. Spaceborne instruments also need reaction wheels to counter the torque applied to the spacecraft by these motions. NASA has developed simplified conical scanning telescopes using Holographic Optical Elements (HOEs) to reduce the size, mass, angular momentum, and cost of scanning lidar systems. NASA has developed two operating lidar systems based on 40 cm diameter HOEs. The first such system, named Prototype Holographic Atmospheric Scanner for Environmental Remote Sensing (PHASERS) was a joint development between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland College Park. PHASERS is based on a reflection HOE for use at the doubled Nd:YAG laser wavelength of 532 nm and has recently undergone a number of design changes in a collaborative effort between GSFC and Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire. The next step was to develop IR transmission HOEs for use with the Nd:YAG fundamental in the Holographic Airborne Rotating Lidar Instrument Experiment (HARLIE). The HOE spins like a compact disk in a large ring ball bearing. In an aircraft the HOE faces down, looking out through a window at an angle of 45 degrees off-nadir. The HOE diffracts 85% of the incident 532 nm light into a 160 micron spot at a focal length of 1 meter. HARLIE is a field deployable lidar measuring aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer backscatter for atmospheric research. It has flown several times and is also used from a ground-based trailer in an upward-looking mode. The HOE generates a 45 degree conical scan pattern by rotating at speeds up to 30 rpm. Like PHASERS, the HOE in HARLIE serves both as the laser collimating lens as well as the receiver telescope primary optic. The telescope is coupled to the receiver package via fiber optic. The transmitter is a diode pumped Nd:YAG laser operating at 1064 nm, delivering 1 mJ pulses at a 5 KHz rep-rate. The receiver has a 200 microradian field-of-view and a 0.5 nm optical bandpass. The photon counting data system utilizes a single Geiger-mode silicon avalanche photodiode detector, This new technology has also presented us with new data visualization challenges as well as new measurement techniques. The backscatter data obtained from a stationary (i.e. ground-based) scanning HOE lidar is on the surface of a cone, which when viewed over many consecutive scans can reveal atmospheric motions on this surface over time as the atmosphere advects over the site. In a moving platform such as an airplane or satellite, the data from consecutive scans cover different areas under the flight path, revealing atmospheric structure in 3-dimensions. An example of a visualization of HARLIE ground-based data is presented, showing aerosol backscatter on a 90 degree conical surface generated from one 360 degree scan of the lidar during the HOLO-1 field campaign on the afternoon of 10 March 1999. Higher backscatter levels are rendered as lighter signal against a dark background. Breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves are evident on the north side of the scan at an altitude of 10-11 km. Time series of successive scans made at regular intervals render unique views of atmospheric motions, from which vertical profiles of atmospheric wind vectors can be obtained using a unique data analysis approach. Wind vectors obtained from the lidar were compared with co-located radiosonde wind profiles during an intensive operating period in September-October 2000 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains Central Facility.

Schwemmer, Geary K.↗

Analysis of LDEF experiment AO187-2 chemical and isotopic measurements of micrometeoroids by secondary ion mass spectrometry

#Experiment AO187-2, that was flown on board the Long Duration Exposure Facility(LDEF), was designed to measure the chemical and isotopic compositions of interplanetary dust impinging on the spacecraft from outer space. Information on the nature and composition of orbital debris was also anticipated. The spacecraft maintained a constant orientation with respect to its velocity vector thereby defining leading and trailing edges that faced respectively into and away from the direction of motion. Arrays of individual capture cells each 80.8 sq cm in size and totaling 237 in number were exposed on both the leading and trailing edges of LDEF. Each cell consisted of a pure Ge target surface slightly separated from a thin (2.5 micrometers) metallized plastic 'entrance foil.' The basic concept was that incoming projectiles would penetrate the foil, strike the Ge target plate at high velocity producing a vapor-liquid cloud that would re-deposit material on the underside of the plastic foil. This material would then be analyzed using the sensitive surface analysis technique of Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS). In practice, most of the plastic entrance foils failed during the extended period of orbital exposure probably due to a combination of UV embrittlement, large densities of impact events and (for the leading edge) the effects of atomic oxygen erosion in orbit. However the foils failed gradually and most remained in place on the capture cells for a significant fraction of the duration of the flight . Because most of the impactors were small (less than 10 micrometers) they were heated and dispersed in traversing the entrance foils producing clouds of molten droplets and vapor that produced easily identifiable 'extended impacts' on the Ge target plates. Fortunately, it proved possible to make ion probe measurements of projectile compositions from material deposited on the Ge in the extended impact structures.

Zinner, Ernst↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

ERS-1 scatterometer estimates of annual variations of Atlantic ITCZ and Pacific NECC

A 10 m height wind vector data set, named CMODFD, from ERS-1 Active Microwave Instrument (AMI) measurements, was compared with moored buoy wind observations. The CMODFD wind vectors compared favorably with moored buoy wind observations at about 60 sites. Satisfactory results were obtained from intercomparisons between CMODFD and moored buoy estimates of horizontal wind divergence and wind stress curl. The CMODFD positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at 28 deg west were nearly equal to those determined from satellite images of clouds. The CMODFD data were employed to compute the Ekman vertical velocity in the region of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and a correlative relation was found between the annual cycles and longitudinal variations of the NECC and Ekman vertical motion.

Halpern, D.↗

Space-Based Precipitation Measurements in Tropical Cyclones: Past, Present, and Future

Passive and active remote sensing of precipitation from space has led to significant advances in the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones around the globe. This presentation will highlight the role of past NASA space-based measurements of precipitation by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2015), ongoing measurements by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (2014-current), and future measurements from the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS, nominal launch date in 2020) as well as a potential new mission on Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) from the 2017 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey. TRMM, which flew the first precipitation radar in space, provided the first systematic descriptions of the radial and azimuthal variations of rainfall in tropical cyclones around the globe and their relationship to storm motion and vertical wind shear. GPM is the lynchpin of a global constellation of precipitation satellites that provides high spatial (0.1°) and temporal (30 min) resolution real-time estimates of precipitation globally, making them essential to applications related to tropical cyclone prediction, disaster response, flood and landslide monitoring, and vector-borne disease monitoring. TROPICS will be a constellation of 6 Cubesat satellites with microwave imaging and sounding channels that will provide information on temperature and humidity in the storm environment, as well as estimates of precipitation and tropical cyclone intensity. ACCP is yet to be fully defined, but is envisioned to potentially carry multi-frequency radar with possible Doppler capability.

Braun, Scott↗

Airborne Doppler lidar observations of convective phenomena in Oklahoma

On 30 June 1981, the wind fields around a variety of convective clouds, ranging from large thunderstorm complexes to isolated cumulus congestus, were observed in Oklahoma using an airborne Doppler lidar operated by NASA. By steering the pulsed infrared laser beam alternately along differing horizontal directions, a network of independent radial velocity measurements is obtained, which permits high-resolution synthesis of the full horizontal wind vector field in a swath adjacent to the aircraft flight track. The bright reflections of the laser signal by cloud surfaces permit direct identification of the locus of cloud edges, information which is prerequisite to detailed study of the relationships between the winds inside and outside clouds. The horizontal wind fields derived from the lidar data reveal waves and vortices along the gust front of a storm which eventually produced a gust-front tornado, and cloud-scale convergence patterns around an isolated cumulus congestus. Despite the presence of some questionable data associated with undersampling and delayed recording of certain aircraft motion parameters, most of the lidar results appear consistent with cloud photographs made during the experiment, with surface meteorological data, with aircraft flight-level wind data, and with previous observational and theoretical work.

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

Wenig, Mark↗

The Updated GEO Population for ORDEM 3.1

The limited availability of data for satellite fragmentations and debris in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region creates challenges to building accurate models for the orbital debris environment at such altitudes. Updated methods to properly incorporate and extrapolate measurement data have become a cornerstone of the GEO component in the newest version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), ORDEM 3.1. For the GEO region, the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog provides coverage down to a limit of approximately 1 m. A more statistically complete representation of the GEO population for smaller objects, which can pose a high risk to operational spacecraft, is thus dependent on dedicated observations by instruments optimized to observe debris smaller than the SSN cataloging threshold. For ORDEM 3.1, optical data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) provided the input for building the GEO population down to approximately 30 cm (converting absolute magnitude to size). For smaller sizes, the size distribution of debris in the MODEST dataset was extrapolated down to 10 cm, and orbital parameters were estimated based on the orbits of the larger objects. When compared to previous versions of the model, significant improvements were made to the process of building the GEO population in ORDEM 3.1, both in the assessment of fragmentation debris in the data and assignment of orbital elements within the model. A so-called “debris ring filter,” based on a range of angles between an orbit’s angular momentum vector and that of the stable Laplace plane, was applied to the data to reduce biases from non- GEO objects, such as objects in a GEO-transfer orbit. In addition, a new approach was implemented to assign noncircular mean motions and eccentricities to the fragmentation debris observed by MODEST because the short observation window (5 min) in GEO limits orbit resolution to a circular orbit assumption for assigning orbital parameters. For ORDEM 3.1, non-circular orbital elements were assigned using relationships that were identified between mean motion and the angle between the orbit plane and the stable Laplace plane, as well as between mean motion and eccentricity, based on breakup clouds modeled by the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This approach has yielded a high-fidelity GEO model that has been validated with data from more recent MODEST observation campaigns.

Manis, A.↗

The collective gyration of a heavy ion cloud in a magnetized plasma

In both the ionospheric barium injection experiments CRIT 1 and CRIT 2, a long duration oscillation was seen with a frequency close to the gyro frequency of barium and a time duration of about one second. A model for the phenomena which was proposed for the CRIT 1 experiment is compared to the results from CRIT 2 which made a much more complete set of measurements. The model follows the motion of a low Beta ion cloud through a larger ambient plasma. The internal field of the model is close to antiparallel to the injection direction v sub i but slightly tilted towards the self polarization direction E sub p = -V sub i by B. As the ions move across the magnetic field, the space charge is continuously neutralized by magnetic field aligned electron currents from the ambient ionosphere, drawn by the divergence in the perpendicular electric field. These currents give a perturbation of the magnetic field related to the electric field perturbation by Delta E/Delta B approximately equal to V sub A. The model predictions agree quite well with the observed vector directions, field strengths, and decay times of the electric and magnetic fields in CRIT 2. The possibility to extend the model to the active region, where the ions are produces in this type of self-ionizing injection experiments, is discussed.

Brenning, N.↗

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David↗