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At least 73 records · Page 4

Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study

Abstract Electricity and water systems are inextricably linked through water demands for energy generation, and through energy demands for using, moving, and treating water and wastewater. Climate change may stress these interdependencies, together referred to as the energy-water nexus, by reducing water availability for hydropower generation and by increasing irrigation and electricity demand for groundwater pumping, among other feedbacks. Further, many climate adaptation measures to augment water supplies—such as water recycling and desalination—are energy-intensive. However, water and electricity system climate vulnerabilities and adaptations are often studied in isolation, without considering how multiple interactive risks may compound. This paper reviews the fragmented literature and develops a generalized framework for understanding these implications of climate change on the energy-water nexus. We apply this framework in a case study to quantify end-century direct climate impacts on California’s water and electricity resources and estimate the magnitude of the indirect cross-sectoral feedback of electricity demand from various water adaptation strategies. Our results show that increased space cooling demand and decreased hydropower generation are the most significant direct climate change impacts on California’s electricity sector by end-century. In California’s water sector, climate change impacts directly on surface water availability exceed demand changes, but have considerable uncertainty, both in direction and magnitude. Additionally, we find that the energy demands of water sector climate adaptations could significantly affect California’s future electricity system needs. If the worst-case water shortage occurs under climate change, water-conserving adaptation measures can provide large energy savings co-benefits, but other energy-intensive water adaptations may double the direct impacts of climate change on the state’s electricity resource requirement. These results highlight the value of coordinated adaptation planning between the energy and water sectors to achieve mutually beneficial solutions for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Nature-based solutions in mountain catchments reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow

Quantifying how well Nature-based Solutions can offset anthropogenic climate change impacts is important for adaptation planning, but has rarely been done. Here we show that a widely-applied Nature-based Solution in South Africa – invasive alien tree clearing – reduces the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Using a multi-model joint-attribution of climate and landscape-vegetation states during the 2015–2017 Cape Town “Day Zero” drought, we find that anthropogenic climate change reduced streamflow by 12–29% relative to a counterfactual world with anthropogenic emissions removed. This impact on streamflow was larger than corresponding reductions in rainfall (7–15%) and reference evapotranspiration (1.7–2%). Clearing invasive alien trees could have ameliorated streamflow reductions by 3–16% points for moderate invasions levels. Preventing further invasive alien tree spread avoided potential additional reductions of 10–27% points. Total clearing could not have offset the anthropogenic climate change impact completely. Invasive alien tree clearing is an important form of catchment restoration for managing changing hydroclimatic risk, but will need to be combined with other adaptation options as climate change accelerates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Responses of Soil Inorganic Carbon to Afforestation in Acidic Versus Alkaline Soils

Afforestation is recommended as an effective approach for carbon sequestration and environmental benefits. However, it remains less clear, and sometimes controversial, regarding how afforestation may impact soil inorganic carbon (SIC), a crucial component of the ecosystem carbon pool. Here, using field data from 619 afforested plots and 163 control plots across northern China, we investigated the relative and absolute differences in SIC between afforested and corresponding control plots. Our results suggested that afforestation increased SIC in acidic soils, while decreased SIC in alkaline soils. Fitting a linear mixed model and further a structure equation model, we found that afforestation-induced soil pH change was the most significant factor regulating SIC responses. In particular, SIC was more sensitive to pH change in more arid areas, where both soil pH and SIC stocks were high. Other factors could indirectly affect SIC responses to afforestation through modulating soil pH and soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Moreover, afforestation-induced SIC changes also varied considerably among different species of tree plantations and across different soil depths. Importantly, in plantations of Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica, Pinus tabuliformis, and Populus spp., changes in SIC caused by afforestation were even comparable to that in SOC. Overall, our findings provide a data-based understanding on the comprehensive soil carbon dynamics following afforestation and its underlying mechanisms. With the increased use of afforestation and reforestation as nature-based solutions to climate change, their associated impacts on SIC need to be taken into account, especially in SIC-rich areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Editorial: Innovations in climate resilience

At Battelle’s second Annual Innovations in Climate Resilience Conference, we were inspired this year by the phrase “Bold Leaps and Action.” Climate resilience is a goal and a field that requires boldness. Achieving a state in which societies, countries, continents, and even the globe is robust to changes in climate is often met with doubt, speculation, and indifference. Boldness is required to overcome the gap between an individual’s personal experience and the sheer scale of climate interactions that span from microbes to planets and from nanoseconds to millennia. Moreover, individual scientists, government leaders, and industrialists might each make a small impact and never directly see a measurable effect in Earth’s climate resilience. Is the scientific work in this area futile? Are we as a community on the right path or are we on the right track? Or are we collectively leveraging our potential and contributions toward scalable and more impactful climate resilience solutions that create compounding effects for cities, regions, countries? That leads us to the second part of the phrase that inspired us. It is not just bold leaps but it is action too. The scientific community must put into effect the discoveries that come along with our work in climate resilience. This includes the processes or activities that translate foundational science into real products that society can use. Never before in the history of this country have we had such a commitment to the Research Topic of climate resilience. The White House has made it a major part of their platform. Congress has appropriated and authorized billions of dollars in support. The part we need next is real action. Through our efforts we can discover the interconnected scientific breakthroughs at many spatial scales from city/regional/state to global that were not possible without those government programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades

Abstract Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Mauritsen, Thorsten [Department of Meteorology and↗

Current Developments of Carbon Capture Storage and/or Utilization–Looking for Net-Zero Emissions Defined in the Paris Agreement

An essential line of worldwide research towards a sustainable energy future is the materials and processes for carbon dioxide capture and storage. Energy from fossil fuels combustion always generates carbon dioxide, leading to a considerable environmental concern with the values of CO2 produced in the world. The increase in emissions leads to a significant challenge in reducing the quantity of this gas in the atmosphere. Many research areas are involved solving this problem, such as process engineering, materials science, chemistry, waste management, and politics and public engagement. To decrease this problem, green and efficient solutions have been extensively studied, such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) processes. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was established, wherein the global temperature increase limit of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels was defined as maximum. To achieve this goal, a global balance between anthropogenic emissions and capture of greenhouse gases in the second half of the 21st century is imperative, i.e., net-zero emissions. Several projects and strategies have been implemented in the existing systems and facilities for greenhouse gas reduction, and new processes have been studied. This review starts with the current data of CO2 emissions to understand the need for drastic reduction. After that, the study reviews the recent progress of CCUS facilities and the implementation of climate-positive solutions, such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture. Future changes in industrial processes are also discussed.

Regufe, Maria João (ORCID:0000000327748302)↗

Taking the Pulse of PyroCumulus Clouds

Forest fires can burn large areas, but can also inject smoke into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS), where stakes are even higher for climate, because emissions tend to have a longer lifetime, and can produce significant regional and even global climate effects, as is the case with some volcanoes. Large forest fires are now believed to be more common in summer, especially in the boreal regions, where pyrocumulus (pyroCu), and occasionally pyrocumuionimbus (pyroCb) clouds are formed, which can transport emissions into the UT/LS. A major difficulty in developing realistic fire plume models is the lack of observational data within fire plumes that resolves structure at a few 100 m scales, which can be used to validate these models. Here, we report detailed airborne radiation measurements within strong pyroCu taken over boreal forest fires in Saskatchewan, Canada during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) summer field campaign in 2008. We find that the angular distribution of radiance within the pyroCu is closely related to the diffusion domain in water clouds and can be described by very similar simple cosine functions. We demonstrate with Monte Carlo simulations that radiation transport in pyroCu is inherently a 3D phenomenon and must account for particle absorption. However, the simple cosine function promises to offer an easy solution for climate models. The presence of a prominent smoke core, defined by strong extinction in the UV, VIS and NIR, suggests that the core might be an important pathway for emission transport to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. We speculate that this plume injection core is generated and sustained by complex processes not yet well understood, but not necessarily related directly to the intense fires that originally initiated the plume rise.

Gatebe, C. K.↗

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

Quantifying air quality co-benefits to industrial decarbonization: the local Air Emissions Tracking Atlas

Many decarbonization technologies have the added co-benefit of reducing short-lived climate pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), creating a unique opportunity for identifying strategies that promote both climate change solutions and opportunities for air quality improvement. However, stakeholders and decision-makers may struggle to quantify how these co-benefits will impact public health for the communities most affected by industrial air pollution. To address this problem, the LOCal Air Emissions Tracking Atlas (LOCAETA) fills a data availability and analysis gap by providing estimated air quality benefits from industrial decarbonization options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). These co-benefits are calculated using an algorithm that connects disparate datasets that separately report greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants at U.S. industrial facilities. Version 1.0 of LOCAETA displays the estimated primary PM 2.5 emission reduction co-benefits from additional pretreatment equipment for CCS on industrial and power facilities across the state of Louisiana, as well as the potential for VOC and NH 3 generation. The emission reductions are presented in the tool alongside facility pollutant emissions information and relevant air quality, environmental, demographic, and public health datasets, such as air toxics cancer risk, satellite and in situ pollutant measurements, and population vulnerability metrics. LOCAETA enables regulators, policymakers, environmental justice communities, and industrial and commercial users to compare and contrast quantifiable public health benefits due to air quality impacts from various climate change mitigation strategies using a free and publicly-available tool. Additional pollutant reductions can be calculated using the same methodology and will be available in future versions of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗

Prime Impact Fund (Final Technical Report)

PRIME Coalition Inc. constructed a first-of-its-kind impact investment fund comprised exclusively of charitable capital from grant and program-related investment-makers (private foundations, community foundations, corporate foundations, donor-advised funds, an d other corporate, family office, and individual donors). Prime Impact Fund was purpose-built to address the "innovation valley of death" in the energy sector, stepping into the capital gap with a new investment model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cross-Cutting Metrology Tools for In Operando Characterization of Carrier Dynamics in Photovoltaic Devices (Final Technical Report)

Understanding the nature of recombination and its dependence on defects and interfaces is essential for engineering materials and contacts for higher V oc and photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) has conventionally been used to evaluate recombination, but not all materials are strongly emissive or otherwise suitable. Time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy is a pump – probe method that presents valuable complementary information, wherein an optical pump pulse photoexcites carriers within the absorber and the transient photoconductivity is probed with a terahertz pulse. Until now, experimental constraints have prohibited the use of terahertz probes to interrogate full device stacks, and measurements were instead made on exfoliated films or films grown on unconventional substrates. However, interfaces are critical to the behavior of photoexcited carriers in solar cells, and the substrates themselves often influence the film growth and bulk properties. Therefore, it is important to probe the behavior of PV absorbers as close as possible to their normal operating conditions. Here we have developed cross-cutting metrology that enable in operando characterization of carrier dynamics and recombination mechanisms in working PV devices. Through a combination of complementary non-contact TRTS and TRPL experiments and modeling, we have obtained key parameters including photoexcited carrier bulk lifetime and interface and back surface recombination velocities with greater precision and accuracy than can be achieved with conventional TRPL alone. By varying pulsed photoexcitation conditions, the contributions of interface and bulk recombination mechanisms can be determined. We have developed and refined this characterization approach by investigating CdTe PVs, which is a well-established technology but with significant margin for further improvements in efficiency. Results were published in Journal of Applied Physics (DOI: 10.1063/5.0064730) and Proceedings of the IEEE PVSC (DOI: 10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518559). After validating the approach, we have applied it to correlate recombination rates to processing conditions and material properties, including composition and defects as well as interfaces and surface treatments. Such feedback can inform processing and design choices to enable higher PV efficiency, not only for CdTe, but also CdSe x Te 1-x , CIGS, perovskites, kesterites, and future technologies. A perspective on predicting solar cell performance from terahertz spectroscopy was published in Advanced Energy Materials (DOI: 10.1002/aenm.202102776). The cross-cutting metrology tools developed here will enable determination of the locus and mechanism of performance-limiting recombination in thin film PV devices. This feedback can guide the engineering of PV devices with higher V oc and efficiency, thereby leading to reductions in levelized cost of electricity to meet the SunShot 2030 target of $0.03/kWh for utility-scale PV. Lower costs will enable rapid expansion of renewable electricity generation that is nearly free of carbon emissions. Reducing carbon emissions of the electricity sector is one of the most important solutions to climate change. The project’s specific focus on CdTe PV can benefit First Solar, the US company that is the global leader in CdTe technology, through both technology and workforce development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrated biochar research: A roadmap

We provide the rationale and broad outline for a long-term integrated research program that focuses on biochar, a relatively persistent solid form of C produced by thermal conversion of biomass under low-oxygen conditions. We believe that investment in this integrated long-term research program would, within a decade, resolve the most important information needs with respect to the technology for biochar and bioenergy production and the agronomic and environmental impacts of biochar use. This information is critically needed by both private and governmental decision makers to ensure that deployment will yield the maximum productivity, economic, and environmental benefits. Biochar and integrated biochar-bioenergy production systems have the potential to become a robust distributed industry supporting rural economies and an important part of a broader portfolio of solutions to climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Molten Salt Reactor Sourdough Refueling and Waste Management Strategy

This paper presents a new approach to the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) problem, which is uniquely enabled by a liquid fuel form, specifically as in the case of molten salt reactor (MSR) systems. Managing the SNF problem is critical for public acceptance of nuclear power as a climate change solution. An MSR can be refueled while operating by adding more fresh fuel salt, which grows the in-core fuel salt volume. This growth will eventually double the size of the original fuel salt, allowing to start another core with this excess fuel so long as the daughter reactor is of the same design and there is sufficient excess fuel. This study explores how such a “sourdough” strategy would work in MSRs and provides an initial calculation methodology to find the correct refueling rates to match the desired growth curve of power generation. Higher uranium enrichment levels of the refuel salt result in lower refueling rates and thus a longer doubling time. As a result, the refuel salt uranium enrichment can be tailored to match a postulated clean power generation capacity expansion. This approach allows postponing the spent nuclear fuel disposal issue using the sourdough method. Along with the MSR fuel’s unique properties, it suggests a new path towards managing nuclear waste until long-term solutions become economically viable.

Wheeler, Alexander M.↗