Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for an ethanol production process based on genetically modified cyanobacteria: CO 2 sourcing options
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Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “chance constraints”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Estimation of the Chances to Find New Phenomena at the LHC in a Model-Agnostic Combinatorial Analysis
In this paper, we estimate the number of event topologies that have the potential to be produced in 𝑝𝑝 collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) without violating kinematic and other constraints. We use numerical calculations and combinatorics, guided by large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of Standard Model (SM) processes. Then, we set the upper limit on the probability that new physics may escape detection, assuming a model-agnostic approach. The calculated probability is unexpectedly large, and the fact that LHC has not found new physics until now is not entirely surprising. Theoretical limitations and experimental challenges in observing new physics within the studied exclusive event classes are examined.
BSM↗
Mixed-Strategy Chance Constrained Optimal Control
This paper presents a novel chance constrained optimal control (CCOC) algorithm that chooses a control action probabilistically. A CCOC problem is to find a control input that minimizes the expected cost while guaranteeing that the probability of violating a set of constraints is below a user-specified threshold. We show that a probabilistic control approach, which we refer to as a mixed control strategy, enables us to obtain a cost that is better than what deterministic control strategies can achieve when the CCOC problem is nonconvex. The resulting mixed-strategy CCOC problem turns out to be a convexification of the original nonconvex CCOC problem. Furthermore, we also show that a mixed control strategy only needs to "mix" up to two deterministic control actions in order to achieve optimality. Building upon an iterative dual optimization, the proposed algorithm quickly converges to the optimal mixed control strategy with a user-specified tolerance.
Ono, Masahiro↗
The Gravity Collective: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Electromagnetic Search for the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW190425
We present an ultraviolet to infrared search for the electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to GW190425, the second ever binary neutron star merger discovered by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. GW190425 was more distant and had a larger localization area than GW170817, so we use a new tool, Teglon, to redistribute the GW190425 localization probability in the context of galaxy catalogs within the final localization volume. We derive a 90th percentile area of 6688 deg 2 , a ∼1.5× improvement relative to the LIGO/Virgo map, and show how Teglon provides an order-of-magnitude boost to the search efficiency of small (≤1 deg 2 ) field-of-view instruments. We combine our data with a large, publicly reported imaging data set, covering 9078.59 deg 2 of unique area and 48.13% of the LIGO/Virgo-assigned localization probability, to calculate the most comprehensive kilonova (KN), short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) afterglow, and model-independent constraints on the EM emission from a hypothetical counterpart to GW190425 to date under the assumption that no counterpart was found in these data. If the counterpart were similar to AT 2017gfo, there would be a 28.4% chance of it being detected in the combined data set. We are relatively insensitive to an on-axis sGRB, and rule out a generic transient with a similar peak luminosity and decline rate as AT 2017gfo to 30% confidence. Finally, across our new imaging and publicly reported data, we find 28 candidate optical counterparts that we cannot rule out as being associated with GW190425, finding that four such counterparts discovered within the localization volume and within 5 days of merger exhibit luminosities consistent with a KN.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A Guideline for the Management of Renal Stones in Astronauts
There are no specific guidelines for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Given the increased risk for bone loss, hypercalcuria, and stone formation due to microgravity, a clinical practice guideline is needed. Methods An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. This information was used to create an algorithm for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Results Guidelines are proposed based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In a usual medical setting, asymptomatic, small stones less than 7 mm are often observed over time. Given the constraints of schedule, and the risks to crew health and mission, this approach is too liberal. An upper limit of 3 mm stone diameter was adopted before requiring intervention, because this is the largest size that has a significant chance of spontaneous passage on its own. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion The spaceflight environment requires more aggressive treatment than would otherwise be found with the usual practice of medicine. A small stone can become a major problem because it may ultimately require medical evacuation from orbit. Thus renal stones are a significant mission threat and should be managed in a systematic way to mitigate risks to crew health and mission success.
Reyes, David↗
Microgrid Tiered Circuits Effects for a Planned Housing Community in Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico faced a double strike from hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. The resulting damage required a comprehensive rebuild of electric infrastructure. There are plans and pilot projects to rebuild with microgrids to increase resilience. This paper provides a techno-economic analysis technique and case study of a potential future community in Puerto Rico that combines probabilistic microgrid design analysis with tiered circuits in building energy modeling. Tiered circuits in buildings allow electric load reduction via remote disconnection of non-critical circuits during an emergency. When coupled to a microgrid, tiered circuitry can reduce the chances of a microgrid's storage and generation resources being depleted. The analysis technique is applied to show 1) Approximate cost savings due to a tiered circuit structure and 2) Approximate cost savings gained by simultaneously considering resilience and sustainability constraints in the microgrid optimization. The analysis technique uses a resistive capacitive thermal model with load profiles for four tiers (tier 1-3 and non-critical loads). Three analyses were conducted using: 1) open-source software called Tiered Energy in Buildings and 2) the Microgrid Design Toolkit. For a fossil fuel based microgrid 30% of the total microgrid costs of 1.18 million USD were calculated where the non-tiered case keeps all loads 99.9% available and the tiered case keeps tier 1 at 99.9%, tier 2 at 95%, tier 3 at 80% availability, with no requirement on non-critical loads. The same comparison for a sustainable microgrid showed 8% cost savings on a 5.10 million USD microgrid due to tiered circuits. The results also showed 6-7% cost savings when our analysis technique optimizes sustainability and resilience simultaneously in comparison to doing microgrid resilience analysis and renewables net present value analysis independently. Though highly specific to our case study, similar assessments using our analysis technique can elucidate value of tiered circuits and simultaneous consideration of sustainability and resilience in other locations.
building energy modeling↗
A Markovian model for assessment of personnel hiring plans
As a result of the current economic environment, many organizations are having to operate with fewer resources. In the manpower area, these constraints have forced organizations to operate within well-defined hiring plans. Exceeding personnel ceilings is in most cases an intolerable situation. A mathematical model, based on the theory of Markov processes, is presented which can be used to assess the chances of success of personnel hiring plans. The model considers a plan to be successful if the final population size, at the end of the planning period, lies within a range specified by management. Although this model was developed to assess personnel hiring plans at the Goddard Space Flight Center, it is directly applicable wherever personnel hiring plans are used.
Katz, L. G.↗
Chance-Constrained System Identification of Nonlinear Discrete Systems with Safety and Stability Guarantees
This paper presents a discrete-time nonlinear system identification method while satisfying the stability and safety properties of the system with high probability. An Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used with a Gaussian assumption on the function reconstruction error. A quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP) is developed with probabilistic safety and stability constraints that are only required to be satisfied at sampled points inside the invariant region. The proposed method is validated using two simulation examples: a two degrees-of-freedom (DoF) robot manipulator with constraints on joint angles whose trajectories are guaranteed to remain inside a safe set and on motion trajectories data of a hand-drawn shape.
Iman Salehi↗
Formal Methods for Trusted Space Autonomy, Boon or Bane?
Trusted Space Autonomy is challenging in that space systems are complex artifacts deployed in a high stakes environment with complicated operational settings. Thus far these challenges have been met using the full arsenal of tools: formal methods, informal methods, testing, runtime techniques, and operations processes. Using examples from previous deployments of autonomy to the Remote Agent on DS-1, Autonomous Sciencecraft on EO-1, WATCH on MER, IPEX, AEGIS on MER, MSL, and M2020, and the M2020 Onboard planner, we discuss how each of these approaches have been used to enable successful deployment of autonomy. We next focus on relatively limited use of formal methods (both prior to deployment and runtime methods). From the needs perspective, formal methods represent the best chance for reliable autonomy as testing, informal methods, and operations accommodations do not scale well with increasing complexity of the autonomous system. However from the practice perspective, formal methods have been limited in their application due to difficulty in eliciting formal specifications and challenges in representing complex constraints such as metric time and resources. We discuss some of these challenges as well as the opportunity to extend formal and informal methods into runtime validation systems.
Chien, Steve↗
The faint X-ray sources in and out of omega Centauri: X-ray observations and optical identifications
We present the results of an observation of the globular cluster omega Cen (NGC 5139) with the Einstein high-resolution imager (HRI). Of the five low-luminosity X-ray sources toward omega Cen which were first identified with the Einstein imaging proportional counter (IPC) (Hertz and Grindlay 1983a, b), two are detected in the Einstein HRI observation: IPC sources A and D. These detections provide source positions accurate to 3 sec-4 sec; the positions are confirmed in a ROSAT HRI observation reported here. Using CCD photometry and spectroscopy, we have identified both sources as foreground dwarf M stars with emission lines (dMe). The chance projection of two Mde stars within approximately 13 min of the center of omega Cen is not extraordinary, given the space density of these stellar coronal X-ray sources. We discuss the possible nature of the three as yet unidentified IPC sources toward omega Cen, and consider the constraints that the Einstein observations place on the total population of X-ray sources in this cluster. The integrated luminosity from faint X-ray sources in omega Cen appears to be low relative to both the old open cluster M67 and the post-core-collapse globular, NGC 6397.
Cool, Adrienne M.↗
Observing Campaign for Potential Deep Impact Flyby Target 163249 (2002 GT)
The Deep Impact spacecraft is currently on course for a Jan. 4, 2020 flyby of the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid 163249 (2002 GT). The re-targeting will be complete with a final small maneuver scheduled for Oct. 4, 2012. 2002 GT, which is also designated as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA), has a well-determined orbit and is approx 800 m in diameter (H=18.3). Little more is known about the nature of this object, but in mid-2013 it will pass near the Earth, affording an exceptional opportunity for ground-based characterization. At this apparition 2002 GT will be in range of Arecibo. In addition to Doppler measurements, radar delay observations with precisions of a few microseconds are expected and have a good chance of revealing whether the system is binary or not. The asteroid will be brighter than 16th mag., which will facilitate a host of observations at a variety of wavelengths. Light curve measurements across a wide range of viewing perspectives will reveal the rotation rate and ultimately lead to strong constraints on the shape and pole orientation. Visible and infrared spectra will constrain the mineralogy, taxonomy, albedo and size. Along with the radar observations, optical astrometry will further constrain the orbit, both to facilitate terminal guidance operations and to potentially reveal nongravitational forces acting on the asteroid. Coordinating all of these observations will be a significant task and we encourage interested observers to collaborate in this effort. The 2013 apparition of 2002 GT represents a unique opportunity to characterize a potential flyby target, which will aid interpretation of the high-resolution flyby imagery and aid planning and development of the flyby imaging sequence. The knowledge gained from this flyby will be highly relevant to the human exploration program at NASA, which desires more information on the physical characteristics of sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroids.
Pittichova, Jana↗
Comparing Volcanic Terrains on Venus and Earth: How Prevalent are Pyroclastic Deposits on Venus?
In the last several years, astronomers have discovered several exoplanets with masses less than 10 times that of the Earth [1]. Despite the likely abundance of Earth-sized planets, little is known about the pathways through which these planets evolve to become habitable or uninhabitable. Venus and Earth have similar planetary radii and solar orbital distance, and therefore offer a chance to study in detail the divergent evolution of two objects that now have radically different climates. Understanding the extent, duration, and types of volcanism present on Venus is an important step towards understanding how volatiles released from the interior of Venus have influenced the development of the atmosphere. Placing constraints on the extent of explosive volcanism on Venus can provide boundary conditions for timing, volumes, and altitudes for atmospheric injection of volatiles. In addition, atmospheric properties such as near-surface temperature and density affect how interior heat and volatiles are released. Radar image data for Venus can be used to determine the physical properties of volcanic deposits, and in particular, they can be used to search for evidence of pyroclastic deposits that may result from explosive outgassing of volatiles. For explosive volcanism to occur with the current high atmospheric pressure, magma volatile contents must be higher than is typical on Earth (at least 2-4% by weight) [2,3]. In, addition, pyroclastic flows should be more prevalent on Venus than convective plumes and material may not travel as far from the vent source as it would on Earth [3]. Areas of high radar backscatter with wispy margins that occur near concentric fractures on Sapho Patera [4] and several coronae in Eastern Eistla Regio [5] have been attributed to collapse of eruption columns and runout of rough materials.
Carter, Lynn M.↗
Towards a Satellite Formaldehyde – in situ Hybrid Estimate for Organic Aerosol Abundance
Organic aerosol (OA) is one of the main components of the global particulate burden and intimately links natural and anthropogenic emissions with air quality and climate. It is challenging to accurately represent OA in global models. Direct quantification of global OA abundance is not possible with current remote sensing technology; however, it may be possible to exploit correlations of OA with remotely observable quantities to infer OA spatiotemporal distributions. In particular, formaldehyde (HCHO) and OA share common sources via both primary emissions and secondary production from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Here, we examine OA–HCHO correlations using data from summertime airborne campaigns investigating biogenic (NASA SEAC4RS and DC3), biomass burning (NASA SEAC4RS), and anthropogenic conditions (NOAA CalNex and NASA KORUS-AQ). In situ OA correlates well with HCHO (r=0.59–0.97), and the slope and intercept of this relationship depend on the chemical regime. For biogenic and anthropogenic regions, the OA–HCHO slopes are higher in low NOx conditions, because HCHO yields are lower and aerosol yields are likely higher. The OA–HCHO slope of wildfires is over 9 times higher than that for biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The OA–HCHO slope is higher for highly polluted anthropogenic sources (e.g., KORUS-AQ) than less polluted (e.g., CalNex) anthropogenic sources. Near-surface OAs over the continental US are estimated by combining the observed in situ relationships with HCHO column retrievals from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). HCHO vertical profiles used in OA estimates are from climatology a priori profiles in the OMI HCHO retrieval or output of specific period from a newer version of GEOS-Chem. Our OA estimates compare well with US EPA IMPROVE data obtained over summer months (e.g., slope =0.60–0.62, r=0.56 for August 2013), with correlation performance comparable to intensively validated GEOS-Chem (e.g., slope =0.57, r=0.56) with IMPROVE OA and superior to the satellite-derived total aerosol extinction (r=0.41) with IMPROVE OA. This indicates that OA estimates are not very sensitive to these HCHO vertical profiles and that a priori profiles from OMI HCHO retrieval have a similar performance to that of the newer model version in estimating OA. Improving the detection limit of satellite HCHO and expanding in situ airborne HCHO and OA coverage in future missions will improve the quality and spatiotemporal coverage of our OA estimates, potentially enabling constraints on global OA distribution.
anthropogenic emissions↗
Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments
A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.
technology↗
The Quest for New Correlations in the Realm of the Gamma-Ray Burst—Supernova Connection
Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are very energetic cosmological transients. Long GRBs are usually associated with Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), and we refer to them as GRB-SNe. Since the associated SN for a given GRB is observed only at low redshift, a possible selection effect exists when we consider intrinsically faint sources that cannot be observed at high redshift. Thus, it is important to explore the possible relationships between GRB and SN parameters after these have been corrected for astrophysical biases due to the instrumental selection effects and redshift evolution of the variables involved. So far, only GRB prompt emission properties have been checked against the SN Ib/c properties without considering the afterglow (AG). This work investigates the existence of relationships among GRBs’ prompt and AG and associated SN properties. We investigate 91 bidimensional correlations among the SN and GRB observables before and after their correction for selection biases and evolutionary effects. As a result of this investigation, we find hints of a new correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient >0.50 and a probability of being drawn by chance <0.05. This correlation is between the luminosity at the end of the GRB optical plateau emission and the rest-frame peak time of the SN. According to this relation, the brightest optical plateaus are accompanied by the largest peak times. This correlation is corrected for selection biases and redshift evolution and may provide new constraints for the astrophysical models associated with the GRB-SN connection.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Universal Fourier Attack for Time Series
A wide variety of adversarial attacks have been proposed and explored using image and audio data. These attacks are notoriously easy to generate digitally when the attacker can directly manipulate the input to a model, but are much more difficult to implement in the real-world. In this paper we present a universal, time invariant attack for general time series data such that the attack has a frequency spectrum primarily composed of the frequencies present in the original data. The universality of the attack makes it fast and easy to implement as no computation is required to add it to an input, while time invariance is useful for real-world deployment. Additionally, the frequency constraint ensures the attack can withstand filtering. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the attack in two different domains, speech recognition and unintended radiated emission, and show that the attack is robust against common transform-and-compare defense pipelines.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DDOTI Observations of Gravitational-Wave Sources Discovered in O3
We present optical follow-up observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager (DDOTI) telescope of gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo O3 observing run. DDOTI is capable of responding to an alert in a few minutes, has an instantaneous field of about 69 deg2, and obtains 10σ upper limits of wlim = 18.5–20.5 AB mag in 1000 s of exposure, depending on the conditions. We observed 54 per cent (26 out of 48) of the unretracted GW alerts and did not find any electromagnetic counterparts. We compare our upper limits to various possible counterparts: the kilonova AT 2017gfo, models of radioactive- and magnetar-powered kilonovae, short gamma-ray burst afterglows, and active galactic nucleus (AGN) flares. Although the large positional uncertainties of GW sources do not allow us to place strong constraints during O3, DDOTI observations of well-localized GW events in O4 and beyond could meaningfully constrain models of compact binary mergers. We show that DDOTI is able to detect kilonovae similar to AT 2017gfo up to about 200 Mpc and magnetar-powered kilonovae up to 1 Gpc. We calculate that nearby (≲200 Mpc) afterglows have a high chance (≈70 per cent) to be detected by rapid (≲3 h) DDOTI observations if observed on-axis, whereas off-axis afterglows are unlikely to be seen. Finally, we suggest that long-term monitoring of massive BBH events with DDOTI could confirm or rule out late AGN flares associated with these events.
gravitational waves↗
Team Formation and Communication Restrictions in Collectives
A collective of agents often needs to maximize a "world utility" function which rates the performance of an entire system, while subject to communication restrictions among the agents. Such communication restrictions make it difficult for agents which try to pursue their own "private" utilities to take actions that also help optimize the world utility. Team formation presents a solution to this problem, where by joining other agents, an agent can significantly increase its knowledge about the environment and improve its chances of both optimizing its own utility and that its doing so will contribute to the world utility. In this article we show how utilities that have been previously shown to be effective in collectives can be modified to be more effective in domains with moderate communication restrictions resulting in performance improvements of up to 75%. Additionally we show that even severe communication constraints can be overcome by forming teams where each agent of a team shares the same utility, increasing performance an additional 25%. We show that utilities and team sizes can be manipulated to form the best compromise between how "aligned" an agent s utility is with the world utility and how easily an agent can learn that utility.
Agogino, Adrian K.↗